Space Weather: Observations and Modeling of the Near Earth Environment

Based on the ERA-5 meteorological data from 2015 to 2019, we establish the global tropospheric delay spherical harmonic (SH) coefficients set called the SH_set and develop the global tropospheric delay SH coefficients empirical model called EGtrop using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method and periodic functions. We apply tropospheric delay derived from IGS stations not involved in modeling as reference data for validating the dataset, and statistical results indicate that the global mean Bias of the SH_set is 0.08 cm, while the average global root mean square error (RMSE) is 2.61 cm, which meets the requirements of the tropospheric delay model applied in the wide-area augmentation system (WAAS), indicating the feasibility of the product strategy. The tropospheric delay calculated with global sounding station and tropospheric delay products of IGS stations in 2020 are employed to validate the new product model. It is verified that the EGtrop model has high accuracy with Bias and RMSE of −0.25 cm and 3.79 cm, respectively, with respect to the sounding station, and with Bias and RMSE of 0.42 cm and 3.65 cm, respectively, with respect to IGS products. The EGtrop model is applicable not only at the global scale but also at the regional scale and exhibits the advantage of local enhancement. Full article

The energetic electrons in the Earth’s radiation belt, known as “killer electrons”, are one of the crucial factors for the safety of geostationary satellites. Geostationary satellites at different longitudes encounter different energetic electron environments. However, organizations of space weather prediction usually only display the real-time ≥2 MeV electron fluxes and the predictions of ≥2 MeV electron fluxes or daily fluences within the next 1–3 days by models at one location in GEO orbit. In this study, the relationship of ≥2 MeV electron fluxes at different longitudes is investigated based on observations from GOES satellites, and the relevant models are developed. Based on the observations from GOES-10 and GOES-12 after calibration verification, the ratios of the ≥2 MeV electron daily fluences at 135° W to those at 75° W are mainly in the range from 1.0 to 4.0, with an average of 1.92. The models with various combinations of two or three input parameters are developed by the fully connected neural network for the relationship between ≥2 MeV electron fluxes at 135° W and 75° W in GEO orbit. According to the prediction efficiency (PE), the model only using log${}_{10}$ (fluxes) and MLT from GOES-10 (135° W), whose PE can reach 0.920, has the best performance to predict ≥2 MeV electron fluxes at the locations of GOES-12 (75° W). Its PE is larger than that (0.882) of the linear model using log${}_{10}$ (fluxes four hours ahead) from GOES-10 (135° W). We also develop models for the relationship between ≥2 MeV electron fluxes at 75° W and at variable longitudes between 95.8° W and 114.9° W in GEO orbit by the fully connected neural network. The PE values of these models are larger than 0.90. These models realize the predictions of ≥2 MeV electron fluxes at arbitrary longitude between 95.8° W and 114.9° W in GEO orbit. Full article

Regular automatic recordings of the time series of the magnetic field, together with routine manual absolute measurements for establishing dynamic baselines at Lampedusa Island—south of Sicily—Italy (geographic coordinates 35°31′N; 12°32′E, altitude 33 m a.s.l.), show a signature of very low electromagnetic noise. The observatory (provisional IAGA code: LMP) lays inside a restricted and remote wildlife reserve, far away from the built-up and active areas of the island, which at present is the southernmost location of the European territory for such observations. The availability of high-quality data from such site, whose survey started in 2005, is valuable for filling the spatial gap due to the lack of observatories in the whole south Mediterranean and North African sectors. We compare observations at Lampedusa, in both time and frequency domains, with those at the other Italian observatories (Castello Tesino and Duronia-L’Aquila), operating since the 1960s of last century, allowing us to report even the secular variation. Using data recorded in the last few years, we investigate higher frequency variations (from diurnal to Pc3-4 pulsations) in order to magnetically characterize the Italian territory and the local response to external forcing. In particular, we present a characterization in terms of diurnal variation and its seasonal dependence for the three observatories. This latter feature is in good agreement with a geomagnetic Sq-model, leading us to speculate about the position of the north Sq-current system vortex and its seasonal displacement with respect to the geographic positions of the observatories. We also study the geomagnetic individual response to intense space weather events by performing Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA), with an ad-hoc significance test. Magnetic responses in the Ultra Low Frequency range (ULF) from spectral, local Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) analyses under different local time, and polarization rates are computed. These latter studies lead us to search for possible signatures of magnetic field line resonances during intense space weather events, using cross-phase multi-observatory analysis, revealing the promising detection capability of such technique even at low latitudes. The geomagnetic observatories prove to be important points of observation for space weather events occurring at different spatial and time scales, originating in both upstream and ionospheric regions, here analyzed by several well-established methodologies and techniques. The quiet environmental site of LMP, providing high-quality geomagnetic data, allows us such investigations even at inner Earth’s magnetospheric shell. Full article

The solar terminator is a moving boundary between day-side and night-side regions on the Earth, which is a substantial source of perturbations in the ionosphere. In the vicinity of the solar terminator, essential parameters like ${\mathrm{S}}_4$ index measurements are widely analyzed in order to monitor and predict perturbations in the ionosphere. The utilization of the scintillation index ${\mathrm{S}}_4$ is a well-accepted approach to describe the amplitude/intensity fluctuation of a received signal, predominantly caused by small-scale irregularities of the ionospheric plasma. We report on the longitudinal daily and seasonal occurrence of GNSS signal scintillations, using the data derived from the GNSS stations in Bahir Dar, Ethiopia, Lomé, Togo and Dakar, Senegal. The observed seasonal climatology of GNSS signal scintillations in equatorial Africa is adequately explained by the alignment of the solar terminator and local geomagnetic declination line. It should be pointed out that the strongest scintillations are most frequently observed during the time when the solar terminator is best aligned with the geomagnetic declination line. At all three stations, the comparison of computational and observational results indicated that the scintillation activity culminated around equinoxes in the years 2014, 2015 and 2016. Comparatively, the western equatorial Africa sector has the most intense, longest-lasting, and highest scintillation occurrence rate in equinoctial seasons in all three years. For the first time, we show that the seasonal variation of the scintillation peaks changes systematically from west to east at equatorial GNSS stations over Africa. A detailed analysis of the solar day–night terminator azimuth at ionospheric heights including the time equation shows that the scintillation intensity has a maximum if the azimuth of the terminator coincides with the declination line of the geomagnetic field. Due to the remarkable change of the declination by about 10° at the considered GNSS stations, the distance between scintillation peaks increases by 46 days when moving westward from the Bahir Dar to the Dakar GNSS station. The observations agree quite well with the computational results, thus confirming Tsunoda’s theory. Full article

Fast and accurate prediction of the geoeffectiveness of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and the arrival time of the geoeffective CMEs is urgent, to reduce the harm caused by CMEs. In this paper, we present a new deep learning framework based on time series of satellites’ optical observations that can give both the geoeffectiveness and the arrival time prediction of the CME events. It is the first time combining these two demands in a unified deep learning framework with no requirement of manually feature selection and get results immediately. The only input of the deep learning framework is the time series images from synchronized solar white-light and EUV observations. Our framework first uses the deep residual network embedded with the attention mechanism to extract feature maps for each observation image, then fuses the feature map of each image by the feature map fusion module and determines the geoeffectiveness of CME events. For the geoeffective CME events, we further predict its arrival time by the deep residual regression network based on group convolution. In order to train and evaluate our proposed framework, we collect 2400 partial-/full-halo CME events and its corresponding images from 1996 to 2018. The F1 score and Accuracy of the geoeffectiveness prediction can reach 0.270% and 75.1%, respectively, and the mean absolute error of the arrival time prediction is only 5.8 h, which are both significantly better than well-known deep learning methods and can be comparable to, or even better than, the best performance of traditional methods. Full article

European near-noontime ionosonde observations were considered during the period of deep solar minimum in 2008–2009 to analyze f_oF₂ perturbations not related to solar and geomagnetic activity. Sudden stratospheric warming (SSWs) events in January 2008 and 2009 were analyzed. An original method was used to retrieve aeronomic parameters from observed electron concentration in the ionospheric F-region. Atomic oxygen was shown to be the main aeronomic parameter responsible both for the observed day-to-day and long-term (during SSWs) f_oF₂ variations. Atomic oxygen rather than neutral temperature mainly controls the decrease of thermospheric neutral gas density in the course of the SSW events. Day-to-day variations of thermospheric circulation and an intensification of eddy diffusion during SSWs are suggested to be the processes changing the atomic oxygen abundance in the upper atmosphere for the periods in question. Recent Global-Scale Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD) observations of O/N₂ column density confirm the depletion of the atomic oxygen abundance not related to geomagnetic activity during SSWs. Full article

Modeling the upper atmosphere and ionospheres on the basis of a mathematical description of physical processes requires knowledge of ultraviolet radiation fluxes from the Sun as an integral part of the model. Aeronomic models of variations in the radiation flux in the region of extreme (EUV) and far (FUV) radiation, based mainly on the data of the last TIMED mission measurements of the solar spectrum, are proposed. The EUVT model describes variations in the 5–105 nm spectral region, which are responsible for the ionization of the main components of the earth’s atmosphere. The FUVT model describes the flux changes in the 115–242 nm region, which determines heating of the upper atmosphere and the dissociation of molecular oxygen. Both models use the intensity of the hydrogen Lyman-alpha line as an input parameter, which can currently be considered as one of the main indices of solar activity and can be measured with relatively simpler photometers. A comparison of the results of model calculations with observations shows that the model error does not exceed 1–2% for the FUVT model, and 5.5% for EUVT, which is sufficient for calculating the parameters of the ionosphere and thermosphere. Full article

The dynamics of ionospheric troughs during intense geomagnetic storms is considered in this paper. The study is based on electron density measurements at CHAMP satellite altitudes of 405–465 km in the period from 2000 to 2002. A detailed analysis of four storms with Kp from 5+ to 9− is presented. Three troughs were identified: sub-auroral, mid-latitude, and low-latitude. The sub-auroral trough is usually defined as the main ionospheric trough (MIT). The mid-latitude trough is observed equatorward of the MIT and is associated with the magnetospheric ring current; therefore, it is named the ring ionospheric trough (RIT). The RIT appears at the beginning of the storm recovery phase at geomagnetic latitudes of 40–45° GMLat (L = 1.75–2.0) and exists, for a long time, at the late stage of the recovery phase at latitudes of the residual ring current 50–55° GMLat (L ~ 2.5–3.0). The low-latitude trough (LLT) is discovered for the first time. It forms only during great storms at the latitudes of the internal radiation belt (IRB), 34–45° GMLat (L = 1.45–2.0). The LLT’s lowest latitude of 34° GMLat was recorded in the night sector (2–3 LT). The occurrence probability and position of the RIT and LLT depend on the hemisphere and longitude. Full article

This paper presents a review on the PECASUS service, which provides advisories on enhanced space weather activity for civil aviation. The advisories are tailored according to the Standards and Recommended Practices of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). Advisories are disseminated in three impact areas: radiation levels at flight altitudes, GNSS-based navigation and positioning, and HF communication. The review, which is based on the experiences of the authors from two years of running pilot ICAO services, describes empirical models behind PECASUS products and lists ground- and space-based sensors, providing inputs for the models and 24/7 manual monitoring activities. As a concrete example of PECASUS performance, its products for a post-storm ionospheric F2-layer depression event are analyzed in more detail. As PECASUS models are particularly tailored to describe F2-layer thinning, they reproduce observations more accurately than the International Reference Ionosphere model (IRI(STORM)), but, on the other hand, it is recognized that the service performance is much affected by the coverage of its input data. Therefore, more efforts will be directed toward systematic measuring of the availability, timeliness and quality of the data provision in the next steps of the service development. Full article

The main objective of the present study is to perform an analysis of the space weather impact on the Latvian CORS (Continuously Operating GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) Stations) GPS (Global Positioning System) observations, in situations of geomagnetic storms, sun flares and extreme TEC (Total Electron Content) and ROTI (Rate of change of TEC index) levels, by analyzing the results, i.e., 90-s kinematic post-processing solutions, obtained using Bernese GNSS Software v5.2. To complete this study, the 90-s kinematic time series of all the Latvian CORS for the period from 2007 to 2017 were analyzed, and a correlation between time series outliers (hereinafter referred to as faults) and extreme space weather events was sought. Over 36 million position determination solutions were examined, 0.6% of the solutions appear to be erroneous, 0.13% of the solutions have errors greater than 1 m, 0.05% have errors greater than 10 m, and 0.01% of the solutions show errors greater than 50 m. The correlation between faulty results, TEC and ROTI levels and Bernese GNSS Software v5.2 detected cycle slips was computed. This also includes an analysis of fault distribution depending on the geomagnetic latitude as well as faults distribution simultaneously occurring in some stations, etc. This work is the statistical analysis of the Latvian CORS security, mainly focusing on geomagnetic extreme events and ionospheric scintillations in the region of Latvia, with a latitude around 57°N. Full article

For the first time thermospheric parameters (neutral composition, exospheric temperature and vertical plasma drift related to thermospheric winds) have been inferred for ionospheric G-conditions observed with Millstone Hill ISR on 11–13 September 2005; 13 June 2005, and 15 July 2012. The earlier developed method to extract a consistent set of thermospheric parameters from ionospheric observations has been revised to solve the problem in question. In particular CHAMP/STAR and GOCE neutral gas density observations were included into the retrieval process. It was found that G-condition days were distinguished by enhanced exospheric temperature and decreased by ~2 times of the column atomic oxygen abundance in a comparison to quiet reference days, the molecular nitrogen column abundance being practically unchanged. The inferred upward plasma drift corresponds to strong ~90 m/s equatorward thermospheric wind presumably related to strong auroral heating on G-condition days. Full article