The Impact of Non-optimum Ambient Temperature on Years of Life Lost: A Multi-county Observational Study in Hunan, China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Sites
2.2. Death Data Collection
2.3. Meteorological Interpolation Method
2.4. YLL Calculation
2.5. Statistical Analysis
Stage-1: Quantify the general effect of daily ambient temperature
Stage-2: Estimated overall cumulative exposure-response association
2.6. Sensitivity Analysis
3. Results
3.1. Characteristics for YLL and Meteorological Variables
3.2. Association of Temperature and YLL
3.3. The Attributable Risk of Ambient Temperature on YLL
3.4. Sensitivity Analysis
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
Df | Degree of freedom |
AIC | Akaike’s Information Criterion |
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Characteristics | Min | P2.5 | Median | Mean | P97.5 | Max | SD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Meteorological | |||||||
Temperature (°C) | −3.52 | 10.41 | 18.55 | 17.74 | 24.74 | 34.49 | 8.30 |
Relative humidity (%) | 30.72 | 70.51 | 78.88 | 77.80 | 86.11 | 100 | 10.99 |
Non-accidental | 0 | 13.51 | 20.64 | 22.62 | 29.29 | 343.63 | 13.41 |
Gender | |||||||
Male | 0 | 13.91 | 23.41 | 26.44 | 35.33 | 405.63 | 18.18 |
Female | 0 | 8.14 | 15.77 | 18.61 | 25.64 | 297.33 | 14.78 |
Age | |||||||
<65 | 0 | 4.89 | 10.29 | 12.24 | 17.39 | 257.57 | 10.51 |
≥65 | 0 | 66.05 | 102.40 | 113.55 | 147.15 | 2428.45 | 72.20 |
Cardiovascular | 0 | 5.00 | 8.82 | 10.14 | 13.65 | 225.50 | 7.48 |
Gender | |||||||
Male | 0 | 4.19 | 9.35 | 11.41 | 16.12 | 255.20 | 10.21 |
Female | 0 | 2.72 | 6.92 | 8.80 | 12.63 | 194.19 | 8.52 |
Age | |||||||
<65 | 0 | 0 | 2.66 | 4.05 | 6.49 | 122.79 | 5.34 |
≥65 | 0 | 31.09 | 54.96 | 63.63 | 85.63 | 1760.64 | 48.90 |
Subtypes | |||||||
Hypertension | 0 | 0 | 1.89 | 2.93 | 4.43 | 100.22 | 3.57 |
Cerebrovascular | 0 | 0 | 2.58 | 3.67 | 5.44 | 113.41 | 4.16 |
Hemorrhagic stroke | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.61 | 2.37 | 56.53 | 2.81 |
Ischemic heart stroke | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.83 | 1.10 | 100.16 | 1.72 |
Respiratory | 0 | 0 | 1.35 | 2.33 | 3.38 | 65.45 | 3.23 |
Gender | |||||||
Male | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.80 | 4.12 | 105.64 | 4.67 |
Female | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.84 | 2.57 | 104.59 | 3.82 |
Age | |||||||
<65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.76 | 0 | 58.36 | 2.47 |
≥65 | 0 | 0 | 9.49 | 15.75 | 24.40 | 488.11 | 20.80 |
Subtype | |||||||
COPD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 24.15 | 1.39 |
Disease Death | Total (%) | Cold (%) | Heat (%) | Extreme Cold (%) | Moderate Cold (%) | Moderate Heat (%) | Extreme Heat (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Non-accidental | 10.73 (4.36–17.09) | 10.27 (4.52–16.03) | 0.45 (−0.16–1.06) | 1.02 (0.64–1.39) | 9.26 (3.87–14.64) | 0.22 (−0.23–0.68) | 0.23 (0.08–0.38) |
Gender | |||||||
Male | 7.64 (0.71–14.57) | 6.99 (1.21–12.76) | 0.65 (−0.50–1.81) | 0.83 (0.45–1.21) | 6.16 (0.76–11.55) | 0.44 (−0.50–1.38) | 0.22 (0–0.43) |
Female | 14.99 (6.77–23.21) | 14.59 (6.75–22.43) | 0.39 (0.01–0.77) | 1.20 (0.73–1.68) | 13.39 (6.03–20.76) | 0.14 (−0.09–0.36) | 0.26 (0.10–0.41) |
Age | |||||||
<65 | 5.23 (−2.47–12.92) | 4.93 (−1.53–11.39) | 0.30 (−0.94–1.54) | 0.77 (0.34–1.19) | 4.16 (−1.87–10.19) | 0.20 (−0.79–1.18) | 0.10 (−0.15–0.35) |
≥65 | 14.92 (8.16–21.68) | 14.06 (7.95–20.17) | 0.86 (0.21–1.52) | 1.19 (0.78–1.60) | 12.87 (7.17–18.57) | 0.50 (−0.03–1.02) | 0.37 (0.24–0.50) |
Cardiovascular | 16.44 (9.09–23.79) | 15.94 (8.82–23.05) | 0.50 (0.26–0.73) | 1.39 (0.99–1.79) | 14.55 (7.83–21.27) | 0.15 (0.05–0.26) | 0.35 (0.22–0.48) |
Gender | |||||||
Male | 14.41 (4.59–24.23) | 13.97 (4.44–23.5) | 0.44 (0.15–0.73) | 1.26 (0.78–1.75) | 12.71 (3.67–21.76) | 0.14 (0–0.27) | 0.30 (0.15–0.45) |
Female | 17.90 (7.92–27.88) | 17.35 (7.67–27.04) | 0.54 (0.25–0.84) | 1.47 (0.92–2.01) | 15.89 (6.75–25.03) | 0.17 (0.05–0.29) | 0.37 (0.20–0.55) |
Age | |||||||
<65 | 12.45 (−0.63–25.52) | 12.16 (−0.56–24.89) | 0.28 (−0.07–0.63) | 1.00 (0.42–1.58) | 11.16 (−0.99–23.31) | 0.06 (−0.05–0.16) | 0.23 (−0.02–0.48) |
≥65 | 18.54 (10.93–26.15) | 17.70 (10.73–24.67) | 0.84 (0.20–1.47) | 1.53 (1.06–2.00) | 16.17 (9.66–22.67) | 0.42 (−0.08–0.91) | 0.42 (0.28–0.56) |
Respiratory | 5.47 (−2.65–13.60) | 4.31 (−1.75–10.37) | 1.16 (−0.91–3.22) | 0.56 (0.11–1.01) | 3.75 (−1.86–9.37) | 0.86 (−0.85–2.56) | 0.30 (−0.05–0.66) |
Gender | |||||||
Male | 5.41 (−4.20–15.01) | 3.28 (−3.43–10.00) | 2.12 (−0.76–5.01) | 0.40 (−0.11–0.90) | 2.88 (−3.33–9.10) | 1.72 (−0.72–4.16) | 0.40 (−0.04–0.85) |
Female | 7.48 (−11.65–26.61) | 7.19 (−11.46–25.84) | 0.29 (−0.19–0.77) | 0.79 (−0.09–1.67) | 6.40 (−11.37–24.17) | 0.08 (−0.10–0.26) | 0.21 (−0.09–0.52) |
Age | |||||||
<65 | 15.40 (−7.68–38.48) | 1.12 (0.34–1.89) | 14.28 (−8.02–36.58) | 1.01 (0.36–1.65) | 0.11 (−0.02–0.24) | 13.69 (−7.49–34.87) | 0.59 (−0.53–1.72) |
≥65 | 8.77 (0.39–17.15) | 7.91 (1.16–14.65) | 0.86 (−0.77–2.50) | 0.68 (0.20–1.16) | 7.23 (0.97–13.49) | 0.55 (−0.76–1.87) | 0.31 (−0.01–0.63) |
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Lv, L.-S.; Jin, D.-H.; Ma, W.-J.; Liu, T.; Xu, Y.-Q.; Zhang, X.-E.; Zhou, C.-L. The Impact of Non-optimum Ambient Temperature on Years of Life Lost: A Multi-county Observational Study in Hunan, China. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 2699. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17082699
Lv L-S, Jin D-H, Ma W-J, Liu T, Xu Y-Q, Zhang X-E, Zhou C-L. The Impact of Non-optimum Ambient Temperature on Years of Life Lost: A Multi-county Observational Study in Hunan, China. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(8):2699. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17082699
Chicago/Turabian StyleLv, Ling-Shuang, Dong-Hui Jin, Wen-Jun Ma, Tao Liu, Yi-Qing Xu, Xing-E Zhang, and Chun-Liang Zhou. 2020. "The Impact of Non-optimum Ambient Temperature on Years of Life Lost: A Multi-county Observational Study in Hunan, China" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 8: 2699. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17082699