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18 pages, 4631 KB  
Article
Integrative Approach to Species Delimitation in Sargassum (Fucales, Phaeophyceae) from Central American Pacific Based on Morphological and Genetic Evidence
by Mariana Viales-Cubillo, Fabio Quesada-Perez, Paola Díaz-Canales, Kaylen González-Sánchez and Cindy Fernández-García
Diversity 2025, 17(9), 592; https://doi.org/10.3390/d17090592 - 23 Aug 2025
Viewed by 308
Abstract
The genus Sargassum is taxonomically complex and poorly studied in the Eastern Tropical Pacific. We analyzed specimens collected along the Pacific coast of Central America and compared them with historical records and herbarium material to clarify species identities. Using detailed morphological analyses with [...] Read more.
The genus Sargassum is taxonomically complex and poorly studied in the Eastern Tropical Pacific. We analyzed specimens collected along the Pacific coast of Central America and compared them with historical records and herbarium material to clarify species identities. Using detailed morphological analyses with molecular phylogenetic reconstruction based on concatenated ITS2 (Internal Transcribed Spacer 2) and COX3 (Cytochrome Oxidase Subunit 3) sequences, we identify two distinct morphotypes corresponding to two well-supported clades. One clade matches the morphology and molecular profile of Sargassum liebmannii. We provide the most comprehensive description of this species to date, including the first published ITS2 and COX3 sequences. Since Taylor’s 1945 work on the tropical Pacific of the Americas, S. liebmannii has been widely reported and considered the predominant species. It forms a genetic clade with other species from the Gulf of California; therefore, we propose a new section, Herporhizum/Sinicola. The second clade represents a previously unrecognized taxon from Central America, which we describe as a new species: Sargassum lacrucense, within the subgenus Sargassum, section Sargassum. Contrary to previous reports, Sargassum brandegeei—now recognized as Sargassum herporhizum—was not found in the region. This study underscores the importance of integrating morphological and molecular data to resolve Sargassum taxonomy in Central America. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Eco-Physiology of Shallow Benthic Communities)
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22 pages, 7227 KB  
Article
Mechanisms Driving Recent Sea-Level Acceleration in the Gulf of Guinea
by Ayinde Akeem Shola, Huaming Yu, Kejian Wu and Nir Krakauer
Remote Sens. 2025, 17(16), 2834; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17162834 - 15 Aug 2025
Viewed by 448
Abstract
The Gulf of Guinea is undergoing accelerated sea-level rise (SLR), with localized rates surpassing 10 mm yr−1, more than double the global mean. Integrating GRACE/FO ocean mass data, reanalysis products, and machine learning, we identify a regime shift in the regional [...] Read more.
The Gulf of Guinea is undergoing accelerated sea-level rise (SLR), with localized rates surpassing 10 mm yr−1, more than double the global mean. Integrating GRACE/FO ocean mass data, reanalysis products, and machine learning, we identify a regime shift in the regional sea-level budget post-2015. Over 60% of observed SLR near major riverine outlets stems from ocean mass increase, driven primarily by intensified terrestrial hydrological discharge, marking a transition from steric to barystatic and manometric dominance. This shift coincides with enhanced monsoonal precipitation, wind-forced equatorial wave adjustments, and Atlantic–Pacific climate coupling. Piecewise regression reveals a significant 2015 breakpoint, with mean coastal SLR rates increasing from 2.93 ± 0.1 to 5.4 ± 0.25 mm yr−1 between 1993 and 2014, and 2015 and 2023. GRACE data indicate extreme mass accumulation (>10 mm yr−1) along the eastern Gulf coast, tied to elevated river discharge and estuarine retention. Dynamical analysis reveals the reorganization of wind field intensification, which modifies Rossby wave dispersion and amplifies zonal water mass convergence. Random forest modeling attributes 16% of extreme SLR variance to terrestrial runoff (comparable to wind stress at 19%), underscoring underestimated land–ocean interactions. Current climate models underrepresent manometric contributions by 20–45%, introducing critical projection biases for high-runoff regions. The societal implications are severe, with >400 km2 of urban land in Lagos and Abidjan vulnerable to inundation by 2050. These findings reveal a hybrid steric–manometric regime in the Gulf of Guinea, challenging existing paradigms and suggesting analogous dynamics may operate across tropical margins. This calls for urgent model recalibration and tailored regional adaptation strategies. Full article
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14 pages, 1855 KB  
Article
Response of Tree-Ring Oxygen Isotopes to Climate Variations in the Banarud Area in the West Part of the Alborz Mountains
by Yajun Wang, Shengqian Chen, Haichao Xie, Yanan Su, Shuai Ma and Tingting Xie
Forests 2025, 16(8), 1238; https://doi.org/10.3390/f16081238 - 28 Jul 2025
Viewed by 323
Abstract
Stable oxygen isotopes in tree rings (δ18O) serve as important proxies for climate change and offer unique advantages for climate reconstruction in arid and semi-arid regions. We established an annual δ18O chronology spanning 1964–2023 using Juniperus excelsa tree-ring samples [...] Read more.
Stable oxygen isotopes in tree rings (δ18O) serve as important proxies for climate change and offer unique advantages for climate reconstruction in arid and semi-arid regions. We established an annual δ18O chronology spanning 1964–2023 using Juniperus excelsa tree-ring samples collected from the Alborz Mountains in Iran. We analyzed relationships between δ18O and key climate variables: precipitation, temperature, Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), vapor pressure (VP), and potential evapotranspiration (PET). Correlation analysis reveals that tree-ring δ18O is highly sensitive to hydroclimatic variations. Tree-ring cellulose δ18O shows significant negative correlations with annual total precipitation and spring PDSI, and significant positive correlations with spring temperature (particularly maximum temperature), April VP, and spring PET. The strongest correlation occurs with spring PET. These results indicate that δ18O responds strongly to the balance between springtime moisture supply (precipitation and soil moisture) and atmospheric evaporative demand (temperature, VP, and PET), reflecting an integrated signal of both regional moisture availability and energy input. The pronounced response of δ18O to spring evaporative conditions highlights its potential for capturing high-resolution changes in spring climatic conditions. Our δ18O series remained stable from the 1960s to the 1990s, but showed greater interannual variability after 2000, likely linked to regional warming and climate instability. A comparison with the δ18O variations from the eastern Alborz Mountains indicates that, despite some differences in magnitude, δ18O records from the western and eastern Alborz Mountains show broadly similar variability patterns. On a larger climatic scale, δ18O correlates significantly and positively with the Niño 3.4 index but shows no significant correlation with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) or the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This suggests that ENSO-driven interannual variability in the tropical Pacific plays a key role in regulating regional hydroclimatic processes. This study confirms the strong potential of tree-ring oxygen isotopes from the Alborz Mountains for reconstructing hydroclimatic conditions and high-frequency climate variability. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Forest Meteorology and Climate Change)
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16 pages, 5628 KB  
Article
Contrasting Impacts of North Pacific and North Atlantic SST Anomalies on Summer Persistent Extreme Heat Events in Eastern China
by Jiajun Yao, Lulin Cen, Minyu Zheng, Mingming Sun and Jingnan Yin
Atmosphere 2025, 16(8), 901; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16080901 - 24 Jul 2025
Viewed by 407
Abstract
Under global warming, persistent extreme heat events (PHEs) in China have increased significantly in both frequency and intensity, posing severe threats to agriculture and socioeconomic development. Combining observational analysis (1961–2019) and numerical simulations, this study investigates the distinct impacts of Northwest Pacific (NWP) [...] Read more.
Under global warming, persistent extreme heat events (PHEs) in China have increased significantly in both frequency and intensity, posing severe threats to agriculture and socioeconomic development. Combining observational analysis (1961–2019) and numerical simulations, this study investigates the distinct impacts of Northwest Pacific (NWP) and North Atlantic (NA) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on PHEs over China. Key findings include the following: (1) PHEs exhibit heterogeneous spatial distribution, with the Yangtze-Huai River Valley as the hotspot showing the highest frequency and intensity. A regime shift occurred post-2000, marked by a threefold increase in extreme indices (+3σ to +4σ). (2) Observational analyses reveal significant but independent correlations between PHEs and SST anomalies in the tropical NWP and mid-high latitude NA. (3) Numerical experiments demonstrate that NWP warming triggers a meridional dipole response (warming in southern China vs. cooling in the north) via the Pacific–Japan teleconnection pattern, characterized by an eastward-retreated and southward-shifted sub-tropical high (WPSH) coupled with an intensified South Asian High (SAH). In contrast, NA warming induces uniform warming across eastern China through a Eurasian Rossby wave train that modulates the WPSH northward. (4) Thermodynamically, NWP forcing dominates via asymmetric vertical motion and advection processes, while NA forcing primarily enhances large-scale subsidence and shortwave radiation. This study elucidates region-specific oceanic drivers of extreme heat, advancing mechanistic understanding for improved heatwave predictability. Full article
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14 pages, 5696 KB  
Article
Growth Patterns of Reef-Building Porites Species in the Remote Clipperton Atoll Reef
by Ania Ochoa-Serena, J. J. Adolfo Tortolero-Langarica, Fabián A. Rodríguez-Zaragoza, Juan P. Carricart-Ganivet, Eric Clua and Alma P. Rodríguez-Troncoso
Diversity 2025, 17(7), 492; https://doi.org/10.3390/d17070492 - 18 Jul 2025
Viewed by 1630
Abstract
Remote reefs offer insights into natural coral dynamics, influenced by regional environmental factors and climate change fluctuations. Clipperton Atoll is the eastern tropical Pacific’s most isolated reef, where coral reef growth and life strategies have been poorly studied so far. Recognizing the coral [...] Read more.
Remote reefs offer insights into natural coral dynamics, influenced by regional environmental factors and climate change fluctuations. Clipperton Atoll is the eastern tropical Pacific’s most isolated reef, where coral reef growth and life strategies have been poorly studied so far. Recognizing the coral species’ growth response might help understand ecological dynamics and the impacts of anthropogenic stressors on coastal reefs. The present study evaluates annual coral growth parameters of the most abundant coral reef-building species, Porites australiensis, Porites arnaudi, Porites lutea, and Porites lobata. The results showed that during 2015–2019, corals exhibited the lowest annual linear extension (0.65 ± 0.29 cm yr−1), skeletal density (1.14 ± 0.32 g cm−3), and calcification rates (0.78 ± 0.44 g cm−2 yr−1) for the genera along the Pacific. Differences in growth patterns among species were observed, with Porites lutea and Porites lobata showing a higher radial extension, developing massive-hemispherical morphologies, and acting as structural stabilizers; meanwhile, P. arnaudi and P. australiensis exhibited more skeletal compaction but also with a high plasticity on their morphologies, contributing to benthic heterogeneity. These differences are particularly important as each species fulfills different ecological functions within the reef, contributing to the ecosystem balance and enhancing the relevance of the massive species in the physical structure of remote reef systems, such as Clipperton Atoll. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Eco-Physiology of Shallow Benthic Communities)
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23 pages, 8610 KB  
Article
Marine Bryozoans from the Northern Pacific Coast of Costa Rica
by Beatriz Antillón-Obando, Jorge Cortés and Jeffrey A. Sibaja-Cordero
Diversity 2025, 17(7), 451; https://doi.org/10.3390/d17070451 - 26 Jun 2025
Viewed by 496
Abstract
Although diverse and abundant, the phylum Bryozoa has been the subject of few studies in Costa Rica. Nearly 50 years have passed since Banta and Carson identified, described, and published twenty-four bryozoan species, including scanning electron microscope (SEM) images. To expand the knowledge [...] Read more.
Although diverse and abundant, the phylum Bryozoa has been the subject of few studies in Costa Rica. Nearly 50 years have passed since Banta and Carson identified, described, and published twenty-four bryozoan species, including scanning electron microscope (SEM) images. To expand the knowledge of bryozoan diversity in the region, we sampled shallow coastal waters along the northern Pacific coast of Costa Rica and extracted tissue for DNA barcoding using the mitochondrial COI marker. Photographs of living specimens and SEM images were taken for morphological identification. We identified fifteen individuals belonging to nine bryozoan species from the orders Cyclostomatida and Cheilostomatida. Five of these species represent new records for Costa Rica (Savignyella lafontii, Bugula neritina, Watersipora arcuata, Smittipora levinseni, and Biflustra tenuis), while the remaining four (Disporella sp., Parasmittina crosslandi, Cigclisula sp., and Biflustra sp.) had been previously reported. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Marine Diversity)
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18 pages, 5153 KB  
Article
Lots of Lancelets or Not? Diversity of Cephalochordates in the Tropical Eastern Pacific
by Maycol Ezequiel Madrid Concepcion, Kenneth S. Macdonald, Amy C. Driskell, Regina Wetzer, Maikon Di Domenico and Rachel Collin
Diversity 2025, 17(6), 411; https://doi.org/10.3390/d17060411 - 10 Jun 2025
Viewed by 565
Abstract
As close relatives of the vertebrates, cephalochordates have been the focus of significant evo–devo and genomic research; however, their biodiversity and systematics remain poorly known. In particular, few species have been documented in the eastern Pacific and there are few published observations for [...] Read more.
As close relatives of the vertebrates, cephalochordates have been the focus of significant evo–devo and genomic research; however, their biodiversity and systematics remain poorly known. In particular, few species have been documented in the eastern Pacific and there are few published observations for this region. Using sequences from COI and 16S DNA barcode markers and morphological observations from 16 animals collected incidentally during other studies, we document the presence of three species of amphioxus on the Pacific coast and one from the Caribbean coast of Panama. The high genetic diversity recovered from so few samples suggests that the application of molecular taxonomy to neotropical amphioxus would likely uncover additional species and could help to more easily delineate morphological differences among taxa. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Patterns Of Marine Benthic Biodiversity)
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17 pages, 6114 KB  
Review
Impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on Global Vegetation
by Jie Jin, Dongnan Jian, Xin Zhou, Quanliang Chen and Yang Li
Atmosphere 2025, 16(6), 701; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16060701 - 10 Jun 2025
Viewed by 1577
Abstract
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as the strongest source of interannual variability in the tropics, has far-reaching impacts on global climate through teleconnections. As a key factor modulating the vegetation changes, the impact of ENSO has been studied over the past two decades using [...] Read more.
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as the strongest source of interannual variability in the tropics, has far-reaching impacts on global climate through teleconnections. As a key factor modulating the vegetation changes, the impact of ENSO has been studied over the past two decades using satellite observations. The paper aims to review results from the past 10–20 years and put together into a consistent picture of ENSO global impacts on vegetation. While ENSO affects vegetation worldwide, its impact varies regionally. Different ENSO flavors, Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific events, can have distinct impacts in the same regions. The underlying mechanisms involve ENSO-driven changes in precipitation and temperature, modulated by the background climate states, with varying response from vegetations of different types. However, the interactions between vegetation and ENSO remain largely unexplored, highlighting a critical gap for future research. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Meteorology)
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12 pages, 2196 KB  
Article
Post-El Niño Influence on Summer Monsoon Rainfall in Sri Lanka
by Pathmarasa Kajakokulan and Vinay Kumar
Water 2025, 17(11), 1664; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17111664 - 30 May 2025
Viewed by 1108
Abstract
Sri Lanka typically experiences anomalously wet conditions during the summer following El Niño events, but this response varies due to El Niño complexity. This study investigates the impact of post-El Niño conditions on Sri Lanka’s Monsoon rainfall, contrasting summers after fast- and slow-decaying [...] Read more.
Sri Lanka typically experiences anomalously wet conditions during the summer following El Niño events, but this response varies due to El Niño complexity. This study investigates the impact of post-El Niño conditions on Sri Lanka’s Monsoon rainfall, contrasting summers after fast- and slow-decaying El Niño events. Results indicate that fast-decaying El Niño events lead to wet and cool summers while slow-decaying events result in dry and warm summers. These contrasting responses are linked to sea surface temperature (SST) changes in the central to eastern Pacific. During the fast-decaying El Niño, the transition to La Niña generates strong easterlies in the central and eastern Pacific, enhancing moisture convergence, upward motion, and cloud cover, resulting in wetter conditions over Sri Lanka. During the fast-decaying El Niño, enhanced precipitation over the Maritime Continent acts as a diabatic heating source, inducing Gill-type easterly wind anomalies over the tropical Pacific. These winds promote coupled feedbacks that accelerate the transition to La Niña, strengthening moisture convergence and upward motion over Sri Lanka. Conversely, slow-decaying El Niño events are associated with cooling in the western North Pacific and warming in the Indian Ocean, which promotes the development of the western North Pacific anticyclone, suppressing upward motion and reducing cloud cover, leading to conditions over Sri Lanka. Changes in the Walker circulation further contribute to these distinct rainfall patterns, highlighting its influence on regional climate dynamics. These findings enhance our understanding of the seasonal predictability of rainfall in Sri Lanka during post-El Niño Summers. Full article
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45 pages, 5448 KB  
Article
Runaway Climate Across the Wider Caribbean and Eastern Tropical Pacific in the Anthropocene: Threats to Coral Reef Conservation, Restoration, and Social–Ecological Resilience
by Edwin A. Hernández-Delgado and Yanina M. Rodríguez-González
Atmosphere 2025, 16(5), 575; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16050575 - 11 May 2025
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2897
Abstract
Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are increasingly affecting tropical seas, causing mass coral bleaching and mortality in the wider Caribbean (WC) and eastern tropical Pacific (ETP). This leads to significant coral loss, reduced biodiversity, and impaired ecological functions. Climate models forecast a troubling future for [...] Read more.
Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are increasingly affecting tropical seas, causing mass coral bleaching and mortality in the wider Caribbean (WC) and eastern tropical Pacific (ETP). This leads to significant coral loss, reduced biodiversity, and impaired ecological functions. Climate models forecast a troubling future for Latin American coral reefs, but downscaled projections for the WC and ETP remain limited. Understanding regional temperature thresholds that threaten coral reef futures and restoration efforts is critical. Our goals included analyzing historical trends in July–August–September–October (JASO) temperature anomalies and exploring future projections at subregional and country levels. From 1940 to 2023, JASO air and ocean temperature anomalies showed significant increases. Projections indicate that even under optimistic scenario 4.5, temperatures may exceed the +1.5 °C air threshold beyond pre-industrial levels by the 2040s and the +1.0 °C ocean threshold beyond historical annual maximums by the 2030s, resulting in severe coral bleaching and mortality. Business-as-usual scenario 8.5 suggests conditions will become intolerable for coral conservation and restoration by the 2030s, with decadal warming trends largely surpassing historical rates, under unbearable conditions for corals. The immediate development of regional and local adaptive coral reef conservation and restoration plans, along with climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies, is essential to provide time for optimistic scenarios to materialize. Full article
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14 pages, 6410 KB  
Article
Phytoplankton Communities in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean off Mexico and the Southern Gulf of California During the Strong El Niño of 2023/24
by María Adela Monreal-Gómez, Ligia Pérez-Cruz, Elizabeth Durán-Campos, David Alberto Salas-de-León, Carlos Mauricio Torres-Martínez and Erik Coria-Monter
Plants 2025, 14(9), 1375; https://doi.org/10.3390/plants14091375 - 1 May 2025
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 611
Abstract
This paper analyzes phytoplankton communities in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean off Mexico (ETPOM) and the Southern Gulf of California (SGC) during the strong El Niño event of 2023/24. A multidisciplinary research cruise was conducted in the winter of 2024, during which high-resolution [...] Read more.
This paper analyzes phytoplankton communities in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean off Mexico (ETPOM) and the Southern Gulf of California (SGC) during the strong El Niño event of 2023/24. A multidisciplinary research cruise was conducted in the winter of 2024, during which high-resolution hydrographic data and water samples for phytoplankton cell determinations were collected at 33 sites. Additionally, satellite data were obtained to evaluate sea surface temperature and chlorophyll-a levels. A total of 269 phytoplankton species were identified, comprising one hundred and fifty diatoms, one hundred and twelve dinoflagellates, five silicoflagellates, one ciliate and one cyanobacteria. The dominant species included the diatom Pseudo-nitzschia pseudodelicatissima, the dinoflagellate Gyrodinium fusiforme, the silicoflagellate Octactis octonaria, and the ciliate Mesodinium rubrum. The cyanobacterium Trichodesmium hildebrandtii was also identified. In terms of total abundances, diatoms were the most prevalent, with 224,900 cells L−1, followed by dinoflagellates at 104,520 cells L−1, ciliates at 20,980 cells L−1, cyanobacteria at 1760 cells L−1, and silicoflagellates at 1500 cells L−1. Notably, interesting differences emerged in species richness and abundance when comparing both regions. These results enhance our understanding of phytoplankton dynamics associated with strong El Niño events. The ETPOM remains a region that requires further monitoring through in situ observations. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Phytoplankton Community Structure and Succession)
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32 pages, 5534 KB  
Article
Zooplankton of Bahía de Los Ángeles (Gulf of California) in the Context of Other Coastal Regions of the Northeast Pacific
by Bertha E. Lavaniegos, Guillermo Ortuño-Manzanares and José Luis Cadena-Ramírez
Diversity 2025, 17(5), 316; https://doi.org/10.3390/d17050316 - 27 Apr 2025
Viewed by 783
Abstract
Bahía de Los Ángeles (BLA) is located on the peninsular coast of the Gulf of California, near to the midriff islands. It is a greatly diverse ecosystem and a marine protected area due to its importance for whale sharks, turtles, and reef fishes. [...] Read more.
Bahía de Los Ángeles (BLA) is located on the peninsular coast of the Gulf of California, near to the midriff islands. It is a greatly diverse ecosystem and a marine protected area due to its importance for whale sharks, turtles, and reef fishes. The bay also supports commercial fisheries that require ecological information for the integrated management of resources. Zooplankton studies are required as is an essential link in the trophic webs. There are few zooplankton studies in BLA focused mainly on the major taxa and species of copepods and cladocerans. Only one study addressed the seasonal variation in zooplankton but with gaps in the sampling. Here, we report the monthly changes in the zooplankton abundance and the composition of the major groups and cladoceran species. Eighty-one samples were collected between September 2017 and January 2019. The holoplankton taxa identified numbered 17, which accounts for 93% of the mean abundance (range 71–100%), with copepods and cladocerans being dominant. The meroplankton consisted of 15 taxa with a greater presence during the warm months (summer–autumn), dominated by the larval stages of bivalves, gastropods, and barnacles. In contrast, many copepod nauplii were found in January associated with low temperatures. Only cladacerans were identified to the species level. They showed strong seasonal fluctuations, reaching a third of the total zooplankton from spring to autumn, with Penilia avirostris being the most abundant species. These results are compared with other temperate and tropical coastal locations of the eastern Pacific. Full article
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20 pages, 14791 KB  
Article
Global Variability and Future Projections of Marine Heatwave Onset and Decline Rates
by Yongyan Pan, Wenjin Sun, Senliang Bao, Mingshen Xie, Lei Jiang, Jinlin Ji, Yang Yu and Changming Dong
Remote Sens. 2025, 17(8), 1362; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17081362 - 11 Apr 2025
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 885
Abstract
Marine heatwaves (MHWs) can significantly impact marine ecosystems and socio-economic systems, and their severity may increase with global warming. Nevertheless, research on the onset and decline rates of MHWs remains limited, and their historical and future variations are not yet fully understood. This [...] Read more.
Marine heatwaves (MHWs) can significantly impact marine ecosystems and socio-economic systems, and their severity may increase with global warming. Nevertheless, research on the onset and decline rates of MHWs remains limited, and their historical and future variations are not yet fully understood. This study, therefore, analyzes the spatiotemporal characteristics of MHW onset and decline rates by using historical and future sea surface temperature data from OISSTv2.1 and CMIP6. The results indicate that during the historical period from 1982 to 2014, MHW onset and decline rates were higher in eddy-active mid-latitude current systems and the western tropical region but lower in subtropical gyres. A remarkably high correlation (0.94) exists between the onset and decline rates; regions with higher onset rates also tend to have higher decline rates. Approximately 49.69% of the global ocean exhibits an increasing trend in MHW onset rates, with significant increases observed in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific. Meanwhile, 92.87% of oceanic regions exhibit an increase in decline rates. Looking ahead to the future (2015~2100), both the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios display consistent spatial patterns of MHW onset and decline rates. The Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension, Gulf Stream, Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and Brazil-Malvinas Confluence regions exhibit relatively higher onset and decline rates. Under the SSP585 scenario, both the onset and decline rates of MHWs are higher than those under the SSP245 scenario. This indicates that as global warming intensifies, more extreme MHWs are likely to occur. This finding indicates that it is necessary to pay attention to the rate of global warming when mitigating its potential impacts. Full article
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19 pages, 4267 KB  
Article
Investigation on the Linkage Between Precipitation Trends and Atmospheric Circulation Factors in the Tianshan Mountains
by Chen Chen, Yanan Hu, Mengtian Fan, Lirui Jia, Wenyan Zhang and Tianyang Fan
Water 2025, 17(5), 726; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17050726 - 1 Mar 2025
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1019
Abstract
The Tianshan Mountains are located in the hinterland of the Eurasian continent, spanning east to west across China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. As the primary water source for Central Asia’s arid regions, the Tianshan mountain system is pivotal for regional water security and [...] Read more.
The Tianshan Mountains are located in the hinterland of the Eurasian continent, spanning east to west across China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. As the primary water source for Central Asia’s arid regions, the Tianshan mountain system is pivotal for regional water security and is highly sensitive to the nuances of climate change. Utilizing ERA5 precipitation datasets alongside 24 atmospheric circulation indices, this study delves into the variances in Tianshan’s precipitation patterns and their correlation with large-scale atmospheric circulation within the timeframe of 1981 to 2020. We observe a seasonally driven dichotomy, with the mountains exhibiting increasing moisture during the spring, summer, and autumn months, contrasted by drier conditions in winter. There is a pronounced spatial variability; the western and northern reaches exhibit more pronounced increases in precipitation compared to their eastern and southern counterparts. Influences on Tianshan’s precipitation patterns are multifaceted, with significant factors including the North Pacific Pattern (NP), Trans-Niño Index (TNI), Tropical Northern Atlantic Index (TNA*), Extreme Eastern Tropical Pacific SST (Niño 1+2*), North Tropical Atlantic SST Index (NTA), Central Tropical Pacific SST (Niño 4*), Tripole Index for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation [TPI(IPO)], and the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP*). Notably, NP and TNI emerge as the predominant factors driving the upsurge in precipitation. The study further reveals a lagged response of precipitation to atmospheric circulatory patterns, underpinning complex correlations and resonance cycles of varying magnitudes. Our findings offer valuable insights for forecasting precipitation trends in mountainous terrains amidst the ongoing shifts in global climate conditions. Full article
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26 pages, 4827 KB  
Article
Influencing Factors of the Sub-Seasonal Forecasting of Extreme Marine Heatwaves: A Case Study for the Central–Eastern Tropical Pacific
by Lin Lin, Yueyue Yu, Chuhan Lu, Guotao Liu, Jiye Wu and Jingjia Luo
Remote Sens. 2025, 17(5), 810; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs17050810 - 25 Feb 2025
Viewed by 859
Abstract
Seven extreme marine heatwave (MHW) events that occurred in the central–eastern tropical Pacific over the past four decades are divided into high-(MHW#1 and #2), moderate-(MHW#3–5), and low-predictive (MHW#6 and #7) categories based on the accuracy of the 30–60d forecast by the Nanjing University [...] Read more.
Seven extreme marine heatwave (MHW) events that occurred in the central–eastern tropical Pacific over the past four decades are divided into high-(MHW#1 and #2), moderate-(MHW#3–5), and low-predictive (MHW#6 and #7) categories based on the accuracy of the 30–60d forecast by the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Forecast System (NUIST CFS1.1). By focusing on high- and low-predictive MHWs, we found that metrics indicative of strong and severe warming (S > 2 and S > 3, where S is MHW severity index) pose greater challenges for accurate forecasting, with the biggest disparity observed for S > 2. All events are intertwined with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), yet a robust ENSO forecast does not guarantee a good MHW forecast. Heat budget analysis within the surface mixed layer during the rapid warming periods revealed that the moderate and severe warming in MHW#1, #2, #6 are primarily caused by heat convergence due to advection (Adv), whereas MHW#7 is mainly driven by air–sea heat flux into the sea surface (Q). The NUIST CFS1.1 model better captures Adv than Q. High-predictive events exhibit a greater contribution from Adv, especially the zonal component associated with the zonal gradient of sea surface temperature anomalies, which may explain their higher sub-seasonal forecast skills. Full article
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