Search Results (485)

Observations indicate a robust relationship between the magnitude of El Niño events and the longitudinal displacement of the eastern edge of the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP). Are the state-of-the-art coupled models also capturing this strong relationship? Here, we address this question by analyzing the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. The results show that 31 out of 33 models replicate the observed strong correlation between El Niño magnitude and WPWP displacement. However, the models overestimate both El Niño strength and the extent of eastward WPWP movement, while underrepresenting the inter-event variability. These findings support the notion that El Niño may be largely regarded as an eastward extension of the WPWP, while also highlighting some model–observation discrepancies that may warrant particular attention. Full article

Tropical trees represent an important potential archive of climate and ecological information, but their dendrochronology based on conventional techniques has been challenging. We conducted a pilot study of the wood anatomy and dendroclimatological potential of Juglans neotropica Diels (Juglandaceae), an IUCN Red List species, using 225 radii sampled from 57 trees in Piura (4°55′ S, 79° 56′ W), northern Peru. A total of 112 radii from 40 trees passed quality control and are included in the tree-ring width chronology for this species. J. neotropica has demonstrably annual rings, and results are consistent with reports that the species has a dormant period during the dry season, which locally is approximately June–November. Local precipitation is correlated (p = 0.10, 1-tailed test) with tree-ring growth, lagged by one year, consistent with other studies of tropical tree species. The age distribution of the sample collection of J. neotropica is young and invariant, probably because of selective cutting by local villagers. To supplement ring-width analysis, we conducted the first oxygen isotopic (δ¹⁸O) and radiocarbon (∆¹⁴C) analysis for this species on radii from two individuals; results are preliminary given sample size limitations, but consistent with dendrochronological dating, within uncertainties, in all three chronometric analyses. A two-sample composite annually-averaged δ¹⁸O anomaly data series is correlated significantly with gridded regional growing season (December–May) precipitation (1973/74–2005/06). Qualitatively consistent with simulation of ring width and δ18O, responses to El Niño events are manifested in positive ring-growth anomalies and negative isotopic anomalies following known event years. The combination of tree-ring, radiocarbon, stable isotopic analyses, and the application of sensor and chronological modeling provides a degree of confidence in the results that would not have been possible by relying on any single approach and indicates the potential for further investigation of this and other tropical tree species with uncertain ring boundaries. Full article

Sri Lanka typically experiences anomalously wet conditions during the summer following El Niño events, but this response varies due to El Niño complexity. This study investigates the impact of post-El Niño conditions on Sri Lanka’s Monsoon rainfall, contrasting summers after fast- and slow-decaying El Niño events. Results indicate that fast-decaying El Niño events lead to wet and cool summers while slow-decaying events result in dry and warm summers. These contrasting responses are linked to sea surface temperature (SST) changes in the central to eastern Pacific. During the fast-decaying El Niño, the transition to La Niña generates strong easterlies in the central and eastern Pacific, enhancing moisture convergence, upward motion, and cloud cover, resulting in wetter conditions over Sri Lanka. During the fast-decaying El Niño, enhanced precipitation over the Maritime Continent acts as a diabatic heating source, inducing Gill-type easterly wind anomalies over the tropical Pacific. These winds promote coupled feedbacks that accelerate the transition to La Niña, strengthening moisture convergence and upward motion over Sri Lanka. Conversely, slow-decaying El Niño events are associated with cooling in the western North Pacific and warming in the Indian Ocean, which promotes the development of the western North Pacific anticyclone, suppressing upward motion and reducing cloud cover, leading to conditions over Sri Lanka. Changes in the Walker circulation further contribute to these distinct rainfall patterns, highlighting its influence on regional climate dynamics. These findings enhance our understanding of the seasonal predictability of rainfall in Sri Lanka during post-El Niño Summers. Full article

Although intensive studies have documented the recent increase in the frequency of the Central Pacific (CP) El Niño events, the underlying mechanism remains unclear. This motivates us to investigate the change in the frequency of CP El Niño events. By analyzing the occurrence of the CP El Niño events between 1960 and 2022, we confirm a statistically significant increase in the frequency of CP El Niño events since 2000. Over the 40 years between 1960 and 1999, eight CP El Niño events appeared. In contrast, over the 23 years between 2000 and 2022, six CP El Niño events are seen. The significant period of the CP El Niño shortens from 4–5 years to 2–3 years. The increased frequency of CP El Niño events is closely related to more frequent warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific (5° S–5° N, 170° W–122° W) during the CP El Niño developing phase (June to October). A heat budget analysis of the mixed layer reveals that the SST variability in the central equatorial Pacific during the developing phase is determined by zonal temperature advection. The frequent anomalous warm zonal advection drives more frequent warm SST anomalies, and finally, the increased frequency of CP El Niño events, as observed. Full article

Semi-annual climate oscillations in the Western Hemisphere (20 S–35 N, 150 W–20 E) were studied via empirical orthogonal function (EOF) eigenvector loading patterns and principal component time scores from 1980 to 2023. The spatial loading maximum for 850 hPa zonal wind extended from the north Atlantic to the east Pacific; channeling was evident over the southwestern Caribbean. The eigenvector loading maximum for precipitation reflected an equatorial trough, while the semi-annual SST formed a dipole with loading maxima in upwelling zones off Angola (10 E) and Peru (80 W). Weakened Caribbean trade winds and strengthened tropical convection correlated with a warm Atlantic/cool Pacific pattern (R = 0.46). Wavelet spectral analysis of principal component time scores found a persistent 6-month rhythm disrupted only by major El Nino Southern Oscillation events and anomalous mid-latitude conditions associated with negative-phase Arctic Oscillation. Historical climatologies revealed that 6-month cycles of wind, precipitation, and sea temperature were tightly coupled in the Western Hemisphere by heat surplus in the equatorial ocean diffused by meridional overturning Hadley cells. External forcing emerged in early 2010 when warm anomalies over Canada diverted the subtropical jet, suppressing subtropical trade winds and evaporative cooling and intensifying the equatorial trough across the Western Hemisphere. Climatic trends of increased jet-stream instability suggest that the semi-annual amplitude may grow over time. Full article

Corals in the Galápagos present diverse reef configurations from biogenic coral reefs to coral communities growing on rocks and sand. These corals have experienced decades of disturbances including recurring El Niño and mass bleaching events. However, traditional methods in ecology have limited capacity in describing coral demographic trends across large spatial scales. Photogrammetry—a form of 3D imaging, has emerged over the past decade as a popular method for benthic surveys. However, the majority of protocols in the field utilize the 2D products of photogrammetry, ignoring overhangs and leaving significant information unexploited. We surveyed seven reef sites across the archipelago using underwater photogrammetry and developed new methods for 3D annotation and fractal dimension calculation. Our findings reveal variation in coral cover, diversity, and structural complexity across the archipelago. Our results align with previous studies in the region and add important information on reef structural complexity which was not measured here before. We release a unique dataset: Galápagos_3D, including seven 3D models and over 17,000 annotated images. This study establishes an important baseline for long-term monitoring, research, and conservation in the Galápagos, potentially informing evidence-based policies and advancing our understanding of coral resilience and recovery. Full article

Geodetic data, especially from the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)/GRACE Follow-On (GFO), are extensively employed in hydrological drought monitoring across various spatial scales due to their unique spatial resolution. In recent years, Brazil has experienced some of the most severe drought events in decades. This study focuses on Brazil and its northeastern Amazon Plain, investigates the spatiotemporal characteristics of terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes, and calculates the hydrological drought severity index (DSI) and meteorological drought index for comprehensive analysis of drought conditions. The results indicate that the time series of TWS changes derived from different data sources are highly correlated, with correlation coefficients exceeding 0.85, and are consistent with the trend of precipitation variation, reflecting notable seasonal fluctuations, i.e., an increase in precipitation during the spring and summer seasons leads to a rise in TWS, while a decrease in precipitation during the autumn and winter seasons triggers a reduction in TWS. In terms of spatial distribution, the annual amplitude of TWS variation is most pronounced in the northeastern Amazon Plain. The highest amplitude, approximately 800 mm, is observed near the Amazon River Basin, and this amplitude gradually weakens from northeast to southwest. GNSS and GRACE/GFO data reveal four hydrological drought events in Brazil from 2013 to 2024, with two of these events detected using GRACE/GFO data. The most severe droughts occurred between 2023 and 2024, primarily driven by prolonged precipitation deficits and the El Niño phenomenon, lasting up to nine months. Additionally, three distinct drought events were identified in the Amazon Plain, suggesting that its hydrological dynamics significantly influenced Brazil’s drought conditions. These results demonstrate the capability of geodetic data to effectively monitor water deficit and drought duration on both small spatial scales and short timeframes, thereby providing crucial support for timely responses to and the management of hydrological drought events. Full article

Observations reveal a strong correlation between the magnitude of El Niño and the displacement of the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP). In Part I, this relationship was examined in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models using their historical simulations, and it was found to be comparable to that in the observations. The present study extends the analysis to future projections under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios—SSP245 and SSP585—to assess whether this strong relationship persists under global warming. It is found that El Niño magnitude and WPWP boundary displacement in most models under global warming are as strongly correlated as in the observations and their historical simulations. Moreover, most models project that stronger El Niño events will be accompanied by a greater eastward displacement of the WPWP boundary. For models with a positive response, the ensemble projects an increase in El Niño magnitude of 0.21 ± 0.03 °C (0.20 ± 0.03 °C) under the SSP245 (SSP585) scenario, accompanied by an eastward displacement of the WPWP by 11.7 ± 1.3° (11.1 ± 1.0°) in longitude. These results further support the notion that El Niño is a consequence of the eastward extension of the WPWP. Full article

Understanding historical climatic extremes and variability is crucial for effective climate change adaptation, particularly for urban flood management in developing countries. This study investigates historical precipitation trends in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, focusing on precipitation frequency, intensity, and the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), using extreme precipitation indices and the precipitation concentration index (PCI). The results reveal sharply fluctuating short-term precipitation from 1980 to 2022, with the exception of an increasing trend during spring (1.17 mm/year) and a decreasing trend in November and December. Trends in extreme precipitation indices are mixed: RX7day shows an increasing trend of 0.1 mm/year, with decadal analysis (1980–2001 and 2002–2022) indicating similar upward patterns. In contrast, RX1day, RX3day, RX5day, and R95pTOT exhibit inconsistent trends, while R99pTOT demonstrates a decreasing trend over the full period (1980–2022). Although the number of days with precipitation ≥ 35 mm has declined, the increasing trend in 7-day maximum precipitation, coupled with no significant change in total annual precipitation and highly variable short-term rainfall, points to a rising risk of unexpected extreme precipitation events. Precipitation patterns in the Kathmandu Valley remain highly irregular across seasons, except during summer. ENSO exhibits a negative correlation with annual precipitation, extreme precipitation indices, and the PCI but shows a positive correlation with the annual and summer PCI as well as 1-day maximum precipitation, emphasizing its significant influence on precipitation variability. These findings highlight the urgent need for targeted climate adaptation strategies and provide valuable insights for hydrologists, meteorologists, policymakers, and urban planners to enhance climate resilience and improve flood management in the Kathmandu Valley. Full article

This paper analyzes phytoplankton communities in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean off Mexico (ETPOM) and the Southern Gulf of California (SGC) during the strong El Niño event of 2023/24. A multidisciplinary research cruise was conducted in the winter of 2024, during which high-resolution hydrographic data and water samples for phytoplankton cell determinations were collected at 33 sites. Additionally, satellite data were obtained to evaluate sea surface temperature and chlorophyll-a levels. A total of 269 phytoplankton species were identified, comprising one hundred and fifty diatoms, one hundred and twelve dinoflagellates, five silicoflagellates, one ciliate and one cyanobacteria. The dominant species included the diatom Pseudo-nitzschia pseudodelicatissima, the dinoflagellate Gyrodinium fusiforme, the silicoflagellate Octactis octonaria, and the ciliate Mesodinium rubrum. The cyanobacterium Trichodesmium hildebrandtii was also identified. In terms of total abundances, diatoms were the most prevalent, with 224,900 cells L⁻¹, followed by dinoflagellates at 104,520 cells L⁻¹, ciliates at 20,980 cells L⁻¹, cyanobacteria at 1760 cells L⁻¹, and silicoflagellates at 1500 cells L⁻¹. Notably, interesting differences emerged in species richness and abundance when comparing both regions. These results enhance our understanding of phytoplankton dynamics associated with strong El Niño events. The ETPOM remains a region that requires further monitoring through in situ observations. Full article

Among the challenges the human population needs to address are threats of global pandemics, increasing socioeconomic inequality, especially in developing countries, and anthropogenic climate change. The latter’s effect has been amplified with the arrival of 2023/24 El Niño, causing an exceptional drought in the Amazon basin, significantly affecting fire conditions and hydroelectric power production in several South American countries, including Ecuador. This study analyzes five criteria pollutants—carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), ozone (O₃), and particulate matter ≤ 2.5 µm (PM_2.5)—during 2019–2024 in Quito, Ecuador, a high-elevation tropical metropolis. Despite long-term efforts to regulate emissions, air pollution levels continue to rise, driven by overlapping crises, including energy shortages, political unrest, and extreme weather events. The persistent failure to improve air quality underscores the vulnerability of developing nations to climate change-induced energy instability and the urgent need for adaptive, diversified, and resilient future energy planning. Without immediate shifts in climate adaptation policies, cities like Quito will continue to experience worsening air quality, with severe implications for public health and environmental sustainability. Full article

As important components of the equatorial current system in the Indian Ocean, Wyrtki jets (WJs) play a significant role in distributing heat and matter in the East and West Indian Oceans. By dividing the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events into several phases, we find that the spring branch exhibits positive (negative) anomalies during the El Niño (La Niña) decaying phase, while the fall branch exhibits negative (positive) anomalies during the El Niño (La Niña) developing phase. The spring and fall branches are characterized by negative (positive) anomalies under the influence of positive (negative) dipole events, and these anomalies are particularly pronounced during fall. This study systematically analyzes the characteristics of WJs under the interactions between the Indo-Pacific ocean and the atmosphere, based on the phase-locking characteristics of ENSO, and reveals the regulatory mechanisms underlying their different response patterns. Full article

Climate change manifests itself in rising temperatures across the continent and affects the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by changing sea surface temperatures and atmospheric circulation. This affects precipitation and temperature patterns, with South Africa normally experiencing drier conditions during El Niño events. These weather anomalies influence crop yields and food prices. Spatial price transmission indicates the extent to which prices of agricultural goods are linked across different geographical areas and how quickly price signals from one area are passed on to another. Although numerous studies explore spatial price transmission between various countries, there is a gap in the literature on price transmission between the US and South African maize markets during ENSO events. Therefore, we investigate how ENSO-related events impacted maize price transmission between the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the Johannesburg Stock Exchange from 1997 to 2024. The empirical analysis starts with a correlation analysis, followed by tests for cointegration and error correction models. The results confirm the dominating impact of US maize prices on South African prices, but also how this relationship changes based on the nature of the ENSO event. There is some indication of lower levels of integration and higher levels of price diversion during El Niño periods. Full article

The Haihe River system, located in the East Asian monsoon climate zone, experiences uneven precipitation and significant variability, leading to frequent droughts and floods that disrupted economic and social development. While many studies have assessed the risks of droughts and floods in the Haihe River Basin, most focus on the basin as a whole, leaving a notable gap in research on the dynamics of the northern region. This study analyzed historical drought and flood data, incorporating instrument precipitation records from 1960 to 2009 to reconstruct conditions in the northern Haihe River Basin from 1470 to 2009. Using methods like the Mann–Kendall test, sliding averages, continuous wavelet technology, and spatial analysis, this study examined the trends, change points, periodicity, and spatial patterns of drought and flood variability. The findings showed that from 1470 to 2009, drought and flood variabilities occurred 73.15% of the time in the northern Haihe system, with peak disaster periods in the 17th, 19th, and 20th centuries. The region has alternated between wet and dry cycles, with a notable dry trend emerging in the 21st century. A prominent 35~50-year cycle in drought and flood occurrences was identified, along with high-frequency oscillations. Flood periods were most frequent in the eastern plains, while drought periods were more prevalent in the western areas, gradually shifting eastward since 1950. The research also revealed correlations between drought and flood variability and solar activity, with peak years coinciding with higher frequencies of these events. El Niño events were associated with drought periods, while La Niña events tended to cause flood periods. Factors such as solar activity, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, monsoon climate patterns, topography, and human influences shaped the dynamics of drought and flood variability in the northern Haihe River Basin. A comparison with other regions showed consistent wet and dry cycles over the past 500 years, particularly between the northern and southern parts of the basin. However, since the 21st century, the southern region has remained humid, while the northern region has become increasingly drier. Despite similar temperature trends, humidity changes have diverged in the modern warming period. Although the underlying factors driving drought and flood variability were not fully understood and required a further exploration of the global climate system’s interactions, these findings emphasized the need for targeted strategies to address the ongoing challenges of drought and flood management in the northern Haihe River Basin. Full article

The coral reefs in the Philippines are facing an unprecedented crisis. This study, based on a comprehensive analysis of marine heatwaves (MHWs), degree heating weeks (DHWs), and ocean acidification (OA) indices derived from satellite observations and reanalysis data, reveals how thermal stress and OA have progressively eroded coral ecosystems from 1985 to 2022. This study analyzed 12 critical coral habitats adjacent to the Philippines. The monthly average sea surface temperature (SST) in the study area ranged from 26.6 °C to 29.3 °C. The coast of Lingayen Gulf was identified as the most vulnerable coral reef site in the Philippines, followed by Davao Oriental and Polillo Island. The coast of Lingayen Gulf recorded the highest total MHW days in 2022, amounting to 293 days. The coast of Lingayen Gulf also reached the highest DHW values in July and August 2022, with 8.94 °C weeks, while Davao Oriental experienced the most extended average duration of MHWs in 2020, lasting 90.5 days per event. Large-scale climate features such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) significantly influenced the study area’s SST anomalies and MHW events. High-risk coral bleaching periods, such as 1988–1989, 1998–1999, 2007–2008, and 2009–2010, were characterized by transitions from El Niño and positive PDO phases, to La Niña and negative PDO phases. However, since 2015, global warming has led to high cumulative heat stress without specific climate background patterns. We propose a Coral Marine Environmental Vulnerability Index (CoralVI) to integrate the spatiotemporal dynamics of warming and acidification and their impacts on coral habitats. The data show a rapid increase in the marine environmental vulnerability of coral habitats in the Philippines in recent years, extending to almost the entire coastline, posing significant threats to coral survival. Full article