Search Results (18)

This study innovatively develops a multi-objective Markal-Macro model, which simultaneously considers three objectives: minimizing carbon emissions from energy consumption, minimizing carbon emissions from production processes, and maximizing societal welfare. Based on the Cobb–Douglas production function, we construct a production function of carbon emission and use it as a coupling equation of the Markal-Macro model (Markal is the abbreviation of market allocation, and Macro is the abbreviation of macroeconomy). This enables the coupling of the endogenous variables of carbon emissions and those related to maximizing societal welfare. By collecting relevant data on energy consumption, production outputs, and key economic indicators, five different scenarios are established. To enhance the computational efficiency of the simulation, we introduce a Firefly Algorithm into the penalty function method. The objective of our simulation is to explore the optimal carbon peak pathway for China. The results indicate that under the baseline scenario, China can achieve its carbon peak by 2029, with the peak value reaching approximately 12.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide. Finally, based on the simulation results, this study provides specific policy recommendations for China’s carbon peak pathway, addressing aspects such as industrial structure, energy consumption structure, the share of clean energy, economic growth targets, and the growth of emission reduction expenditures, while considering regional five-year plans and regional carbon peak strategies. From the aspect of the practical contributions, this article not only provides a set of methods for policymakers to make the Carbon Peak Implementation Plan but also offers an optimal path to improve the sustainable development for China. Full article

The steel industry, which relies heavily on primary energy, is one of the industries with the highest CO₂ emissions in China. It is urgent for the industry to identify ways to embark on the path to “green steel”. Hydrogen metallurgy technology uses hydrogen as a reducing agent, and its use is an important way to reduce CO₂ emissions from long-term steelmaking and ensure the green and sustainable development of the steel industry. Previous research has demonstrated the feasibility and emission reduction effects of hydrogen metallurgy technology; however, further research is needed to dynamically analyze the overall impact of the large-scale development of hydrogen metallurgy technology on future CO₂ emissions from the steel industry. This article selects the integrated MARKAL-EFOM system (TIMES) model as its analysis model, constructs a China steel industry hydrogen metallurgy model (TIMES-CSHM), and analyzes the resulting impact of hydrogen metallurgy technology on CO₂ emissions. The results indicate that in the business-as-usual scenario (BAU scenario), applying hydrogen metallurgy technology in the period from 2020 to 2050 is expected to reduce emissions by 203 million tons, and make an average 39.85% contribution to reducing the steel industry’s CO₂ emissions. In the carbon emission reduction scenario, applying hydrogen metallurgy technology in the period from 2020 to 2050 is expected to reduce emissions by 353 million tons, contributing an average of 41.32% to steel industry CO₂ reduction. This study provides an assessment of how hydrogen metallurgy can reduce CO₂ emissions in the steel industry, and also provides a reference for the development of hydrogen metallurgy technology. Full article

Municipal Solid Waste Management (MSWM) struggles with significant policy and operational challenges, particularly concerning collection routes for recyclables and fleet composition. Within the European Union, phasing out traditional fuel-based vocational vehicles, like garbage trucks, in favor of zero-emission alternatives, is mandatory to achieve sustainable development objectives. This paper presents a preliminary study on the problem of multi-period fleet transition from combustive fuels towards more eco-friendly fueling types. Initially developed for energy sector, the MARKAL framework was used here to support the technological transition of the fleet. The mixed-integer program was formulated for the Fleet Transition Problem (FTP), a simplified theoretical problem. The objective of the FTP and a mixed-integer linear program used to solve it is minimizing the overall cost of fleet modernization throughout a multi-phase planning horizon so that the sustainable transition of the fleet can be assured. Computational experiments run on randomly generated data instances affirmed the model’s effectiveness in strategizing fleet transition. This research outlines a multi-period model for transitioning to a zero-emission fleet and demonstrates the FTP’s potential for strategic decision-making. Notably, the study observes consistent reductions in permissible emissions across the planning horizon. Full article

This research article provides a comprehensive scenario analysis of key structural changes in Kazakhstan’s fuel and energy complex subsectors until 2060, focusing on decarbonization efforts. The background places the issue of decarbonization in a broader context, considering the country’s vast size and sparse population. The study’s purpose involves analyzing the development of the climate agenda by comparing two scenarios: a “reference” scenario without decarbonization measures and a carbon neutrality scenario until 2060 (CN2060). A mathematical technical-economic model based on the TIMES paradigm (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) serves as the method to optimize and simulate Kazakhstan’s energy system. The main findings reveal sets of policies, standards, and legislative, economic, and political decisions that are required to achieve CN2060. Additionally, the integration of a low-carbon policy, sectoral and cross-cutting approaches, the impact of the coronavirus crisis, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and energy security issues receive a discussion. The article concludes with projected shares of generation and investment in renewable energy sources (RES) necessary for attaining CN2060. This work offers novel insights into challenges and opportunities for Kazakhstan’s transition to a low-carbon economy. Full article

In response to the call for global carbon peaking and neutrality, this study mainly focuses on the comparison of energy-related carbon emissions and the performance of two promising heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning technologies (a ground source heat pump (GSHP) and cogeneration systems) over both short (2021–2030) and long (2031–2050) periods, considering the UK decarbonization plans. The simulation model of the building with the GSHP system is validated by the actual building heating energy data in 2020 and 2021, with yearly deviations of only 0.4–0.5%. The results show that the cogeneration system performed better than the GSHP system in a scenario when there was no electricity decarbonization plan in the future. However, under all of the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) scenarios, the GSHP system performed much better than the cogeneration system in terms of carbon reduction in both periods, which can achieve 47.8–84.4% and maximum 97.5% carbon emission savings in short and long-term periods, respectively, compared with the cogeneration system. Due to the truth that electricity decarbonization plans will be optimized and executed in the future, the GSHP system is more promising and recommended compared with cogeneration system in both short- and long-term periods in terms of only decarbonization potentials (e.g., reducing carbon emission and achieving carbon-related environmental protection). Full article

The global trend is constantly increasing investments in strategic sectors of the economy, for example the electric power industry, which, in many countries, is becoming diversified and dispersed due to the multitude of entities investing in energy production and renewable resources, which leads to an increase in the heterogeneity of investment decisions. There is an urgent need to control the movement of investments, budget funds, as well as their development in the process of implementing investment programs of energy companies. The control of the movement of investments is the most promising direction of studying the subject of finance and audit. The increasing volume of public and private targeted investments in the energy sector and the lack of control over the effectiveness of investment projects (since each program contains several thousand lists of projects) necessitated the introduction of additional regulation of budget spending. The development of a mathematical apparatus for such regulation led to the creation in the Russian Federation of an institute of an independent public technological and price audit (TPA). The TPA is seen as a mechanism to ensure an effective project evaluation and selection process. This article describes methodological improvements using power system optimization models. The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) was developed as part of the Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program of the IEA-ETSAP, an international community that uses long-term energy scenarios to conduct in-depth energy and environmental analyzes. This approach includes two different but complementary systematic approaches to energy modeling: an engineering approach and an economic approach. The same approach is used when conducting a TSA, when an investment object is evaluated as a set of technological and price parameters. The article considers a model of resource allocation in the energy sector and a mechanism for using TPA for investment projects with state participation in a natural monopoly. An approach to the financial and long-term distribution of investments of electric power companies based on the search for a balance of interests of the supplier and consumer and available energy sources is proposed. A model has been developed to find the optimal plan of technical solutions, taking into account the balance of the possibilities of the electric power industry and the needs of the economy. The relevance of the article is due to the requirements of investment efficiency, since the prevailing share in the costs is occupied by the costs of equipment and the construction of power plants. Full article

In 2020 Ireland missed its EU climate emissions target and without additional measures will not be on the right trajectory towards decarbonisation in the longer 2030 and 2050 challenges. Agriculture remains the single most significant contributor to overall emissions in Ireland. In the absence of effective mitigating strategies, agricultural emissions have continued to rise. The purpose of the review is to explore current research conducted in Ireland regarding environmental modelling within agriculture to identify research gap areas for further research. 10 models were selected and reviewed regarding modelling carbon emissions from agriculture in Ireland, the GAINS (Air pollution Interactions and Synergies) model used for air pollutants, the JRC-EU-TIMES, (Joint Research Council-European Union-The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) and the Irish TIMES model used for energy, the integrated modelling project Ireland (GAINS & TIMES), the environmental, economic model ENV-Linkages and ENV-Growth along with the IE3 and AGRI-I models. The review found that data on greenhouse gas emissions for 2019 reveals that emissions can be efficiently lowered if the right initiatives are taken. More precise emission factors and adaptable inventories are urgently needed to improve national CO₂ reporting and minimise the agricultural sector’s emissions profile in Ireland. The Climate Action Delivery Act is a centrally driven monitoring and reporting system for climate action delivery that will help in determining optimal decarbonisation from agriculture in Ireland. Multi-modelling approaches will give a better understanding of the technology pathways that will be required to meet decarbonisation ambitions. Full article

Energy systems require technological changes towards climate neutrality. In Poland, where the power system is dominated by outdated coal-fired power plants, efforts to minimize the environmental impact are associated with high costs. Therefore, optimal paths for the development of the energy sector should be sought in order to achieve ambitious long-term strategic goals, while minimizing the negative impact on the consumers’ home budget. A methodology and a model for the development of the electricity and heat generation structure were developed and implemented in market allocation (MARKAL) modelling framework. Two scenarios were presented, i.e., business as usual (BAU) and withdrawal from coal (WFC) scenarios. The calculations showed a significant role of nuclear energy and offshore wind power in the pursuit of climate neutrality of electricity generation. In the BAU scenario, the model proposes to stay with coal technologies using carbon capture and storage systems. Withdrawal from coal (WFC scenario) makes it necessary to replace them by gas-fired power plants with CO₂ sequestration. Solar energy can be used both in electricity and district heating. In order to build on the latter technological option, appropriate energy storage techniques must be developed. Geothermal energy is expected to be the key option for district heat generation in the long-term horizon. The proposed development paths guarantee a significant reduction in greenhouse gases and industrial emissions. However, complete climate neutrality is uncertain, given the current degree and dynamics of technological development. Full article

This paper presents a roadmap performed in 2010 as part of a European project for the modelling of carbon capture and storage technology, and various scenarios with different taxations and permit prices for the CO₂ emissions considering the Greek national plans, then the gradual decommissioning of various lignite or other units of electricity power plants. In addition, this study presents a first check, 10 years after its writing, of the current situation of the Greek energy system, regarding the correspondence of the roadmap designed in 2010 to what has been finally executed during this period, including the possibility of other energy sources complimenting or substituting the national strategic energy plans. For this purpose, the integrated MARKAL-EFOM system (TIMES) was employed to model the Greek energy system and evaluate its development over time, until 2040, by analyzing three different scenarios with respect to taxation and permit prices for carbon emissions. The results obtained show that, if this study had been considered and executed by the different stakeholders during that period, then the implementation of CCS in the new licensed power plants from 2010 and onwards could reduce the use of lignite and imported hard coal power production in a much smoother and beneficial way in the next years, and until the present, without compromising any major power plants. This implementation would also make the transition to a lignite free economy in Greece much faster and better, while complimenting the EU regulations and also enhancing the possible greater use of alternative energy sources in the green energy mixture. Full article

Energy demand forecasting is practiced in several time frames; different explanatory variables are used in each case to serve different decision support mandates. For example, in the short, daily, term building level, forecasting may serve as a performance baseline. On the other end, we have long-term, policy-oriented forecasting exercises. TIMES (an acronym for The Integrated Markal Efom System) allows us to model supply and anticipated technology shifts over a long-term horizon, often extending as far away in time as 2100. Between these two time frames, we also have a mid-term forecasting time frame, that of a few years ahead. Investigations here are aimed at policy support, although in a more mid-term horizon, we address issues such as investment planning and pricing. In this paper, we develop and evaluate statistical and neural network approaches for this mid-term forecasting of final energy and electricity for the residential sector in six EU countries (Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Spain, Portugal and Greece). Various possible approaches to model the explanatory variables used are presented, discussed, and assessed as to their suitability. Our end goal extends beyond model accuracy; we also include interpretability and counterfactual concepts and analysis, aiming at the development of a modelling approach that can provide decision support for strategies aimed at influencing energy demand. Full article

Air pollution and climate change are closely interlinked, once both share common emission sources, which mainly arise from fuel combustion and industrial processes. Climate mitigation actions bring co-benefits on air quality and human health. However, specific solutions can provide negative trade-offs for one side. The Portuguese Carbon Neutrality Roadmap was developed to assess conceivable cost-effective pathways to achieve zero net carbon emissions by 2050. Assessing its impacts, on air pollutant emissions, is the main focus of the present work. The bottom-up linear optimization energy system the integrated MARKAL-EFOM system (TIMES) model was selected as a modeling tool for the decarbonization scenarios assessment. The estimation of air pollutant emissions was performed exogenously to the TIMES model. Results show that reaching net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is possible, and technologically feasible, in Portugal, by 2050. The crucial and most cost-effective vector for decarbonizing the national economy is the end-use energy consumption electrification, renewable based, across all end-use sectors. Decarbonization efforts were found to have strong co-benefits for reducing air pollutant emissions in Portugal. Transport and power generation are the sectors with the greatest potential to reduce GHG emissions, providing likewise the most significant reductions of air pollutant emissions. Despite the overall positive effects, there are antagonistic effects, such as the use of biomass, mainly in industry and residential sectors, which translates into increases in particulate matter emissions. This is relevant for medium term projections, since results show that, by 2030, PM_2.5 emissions are unlikely to meet the emission reduction commitments set at the European level, if no additional control measures are considered. Full article

In the present study, we compare energy transition scenarios from a new set of integrated assessment models, the suite of MEDEAS models, based on a systems dynamic modeling approach, with scenarios from two already well know structurally and conceptually different integrated assessment models, the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) and the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP). The investigation was carried out to cross-compare and benchmark the response of MEDEAS models with TIMES and LEAP in depicting the energy transition in two different countries, Austria and Bulgaria. The preliminary results show a good agreement across all the models in representing scenarios projecting historical trends, while a major discrepancy is detectable when the rate of implementation of renewable energy is forced to increase to achieve energy system decarbonization. The discrepancy is mainly traceable to the differences in the models’ conception and structures rather than in a real mismatch in representing the same scenarios. The present study is put forward as a guideline for validating new modeling approaches that link energy policy decision tools to the global biophysical and socioeconomic constraints. Full article

A thorough understanding of the drivers that affect the emission levels from electricity generation, support sound design and the implementation of further emission reduction goals are presented here. For instance, New York State has already committed a transition to 100% clean energy by 2040. This paper identifies the relationships among driving factors and the changes in emissions levels between 1990 and 2050 using the logarithmic mean divisia index analysis. The analysis relies on historical data and outputs from techno-economic-energy system modeling to elucidate future power sector pathways. Three scenarios, including a business-as-usual scenario and two policy scenarios, explore the changes in utility structure, efficiency, fuel type, generation, and emission factors, considering the non-fossil-based technology options and air regulations. We present retrospective and prospective analysis of carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide emissions for the New York State’s power sector. Based on our findings, although the intensity varies by period and emission type, in aggregate, fossil fuel mix change can be defined as the main contributor to reduce emissions. Electricity generation level variations and technical efficiency have relatively smaller impacts. We also observe that increased emissions due to nuclear phase-out will be avoided by the onshore and offshore wind with a lower fraction met by solar until 2050. Full article

The European Union’s 2030 climate and energy policy and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development underline the commitment to mitigate climate change and reduce its impacts by supporting sustainable use of resources. This commitment has become stricter in light of the ambitious climate neutrality target set by the European Green Deal for 2050. Water, Energy and Food are the key variables of the “Nexus Thinking” which face the sustainability challenge with a multi-sectoral approach. The aim of the paper is to show the methodological path toward the implementation of an integrated modeling platform based on the Nexus approach and consolidated energy system analysis methods to represent the agri-food system in a circular economy perspective (from the use of water, energy, biomass, and land to food production). The final aim is to support decision-making connected to climate change mitigation. The IEA-The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) model generator was used to build up the Basilicata Water, Energy and Food model (TIMES-WEF model), which allows users a comprehensive evaluation of the impacts of climate change on the Basilicata agri-food system in terms of land use, yields and water availability and a critical comparison of these indicators in different scenarios. The paper focuses on the construction of the model’s Reference Energy and Material System of the TIMES model, which integrates water and agricultural commodities into the energy framework, and on the results obtained through the calibration of the model β version to statistical data on agricultural activities. Full article

In China, as the major source of energy consumption and air pollutant emissions, the power industry is not only the principal force that bears the responsibility of national emission reduction targets but also a breakthrough that reflects the effectiveness of emission reduction. In this study, based on the integrated MARKAL-EFOM system (TIMES) model and scenario analysis method, a bottom-up energy system optimization model for the power industry was established, and four scenarios with different constraints were set up to predict and analyze the power demand and the energy consumption structure. Emission characteristics, emission reduction characteristics, and emission reduction cost of sulfur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen oxide (NO_X), particulate matter 2.5 (PM_2.5), and mercury (Hg) were quantitatively studied. Finally, for the environmentally friendly development and optimal adjustment of power production systems in China, the control path in the power industry that is conducive to the emission reduction of air pollutants was obtained, which is of great significance for the ultimate realization of climate friendliness. The results demonstrate that from 2020 to 2050, the power demand of the terminal departments will increase, with the composition significantly changed. The focus of power demand will change from industry to the service industry gradually. If no additional targeted emission reduction or adjustment policies are added in the power industry, the primary energy and air pollutant emissions will increase significantly, putting great pressure on resources and the environment. For the emission reduction of air pollutants, the promotion effect of emission reduction measures, such as the implementation and promotion of non-fossil fuels, is restricted. The power industry can introduce and maximize the best available technologies while optimizing the structure of energy consumption to realize efficient emission reduction of air pollutants and energy conservation. In 2030, emissions will reach peak values with reasonable emission reduction cost. This has the additional effect of abating energy consumption and preventing deterioration of the ecological environment, which is of profound significance for the ultimate realization of climate friendliness. Full article