Search Results (148)

This study is designed to investigate the dynamic risk transmission processes between clean energy ETFs and ESG indices in the BRICS countries—Brazil, India, China, and South Africa—while excluding Russia due to the lack of consistent data availability during the study period, which coincides with the Russia–Ukraine conflict. The analysis is conducted on daily data obtained from DataStream, spanning from 27 October 2021 to 5 January 2024. By applying a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) modeling framework, we considered examining the global market conditions and economic shocks’ effects on these indices’ interconnectedness, including COVID-19 and geopolitical tensions. In this context, clean energy ETFs turned out to stand as net shock transmitters throughout volatile market spans, while ESG indices proved to act as net receivers. Moreover, we undertook to estimate both of the minimum variance and minimum connectedness portfolios’ hedging efficiency and performance. The findings highlight that introducing clean energy indices into investment strategies helps boost financial outcomes while maintaining sustainability goals. Indeed, the minimum connectedness portfolio consistently delivers superior risk-adjusted returns across varying market circumstances. In this respect, the present study provides investors, regulators, and policymakers with practical insights. Investors may optimize their portfolios by integrating clean energy and ESG indexes, useful for achieving financial and sustainability aims. Similarly, regulators might apply the findings to establish reliable green investment norms and strategies. Thus, this work underscores the crucial role of dynamic portfolio management in optimizing risk and return in the globally evolving green economy. Full article

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022 triggered a series of dramatic events with both humanitarian and informational repercussions. In this context, social media became saturated with rhetorical strategies and narrative framing from civil society, European media, and EU institutions alike. This paper examines how the European Union communicated institutionally during the first year of the war, focusing on the online activity of the three main EU bodies—the European Commission, the European Parliament, and the European Council—and their respective presidents: Ursula von der Leyen, Roberta Metsola, and Charles Michel. The study centres on their use of the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), analysing the content of their posts related to the conflict. In addition, several in-depth interviews were conducted with experts in EU institutional communication and disinformation on social media to complement the analysis and offer a broader perspective on the communicative strategies employed. Full article

The transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources (RES) offers numerous benefits that can enhance the well-being of local communities. However, it is imperative to ensure that the public perceives RES projects as fully sustainable, a goal that requires a comprehensive evaluation of their social acceptance. Among the various RES options, the development of the biomethane supply chain has gained particular importance in Europe, especially considering the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the 2022 “REPowerEU” plan. In this context, the present study conducts a preliminary analysis of the social acceptance of agri-biomethane, focusing primarily on the key variable of “trust” in public administrators and energy investors to ensure its comprehensive sustainability. To this end, a survey was administered to a sample of 290 stakeholders residing in the Apulia region (Southern Italy). The data were analysed using PLS-SEM analysis to ensure robust, evidence-based findings. The results highlight the critical importance of building trust within local communities to foster social acceptance of agri-biomethane production. This can be achieved by strengthening perceived benefits, enhancing public knowledge, and promoting social participation. These insights may support policymakers in making informed decisions about community well-being and the energy transition, particularly in overcoming potential social barriers to the development of this supply chain. Full article

This study investigates the dynamics of financial contagion using a flexible mixture copula framework, specifically a combination of the Survival Clayton and Survival Gumbel copulas, to estimate the lower tail dependence coefficient, interpreted as a measure of extreme downside co-movement or contagion. The model captures nonlinear and asymmetric dependencies between the global stock market and nine national markets: Australia, China, Hungary, India, New Zealand, Spain, Thailand, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The analysis spans the period from 2018 to 2024 and focuses on three major global crises: the China–U.S. trade war, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia–Ukraine conflict. The results reveal substantial heterogeneity in contagion intensity across countries and crises. The COVID-19 pandemic generated the highest and most synchronized levels of contagion, with tail dependence exceeding 0.8 in the United States and above 0.6 in several developed and emerging markets. The China–U.S. trade war resulted in moderate contagion, particularly in countries with close trade links to the U.S. and China. The Russia–Ukraine conflict produced elevated contagion in European and energy-sensitive markets such as the UK and Spain. Conversely, China and New Zealand exhibited relatively lower levels of contagion across all periods Full article

Despite the close linkage between carbon markets and fossil fuel markets, minimal research has investigated their co-movement dynamics during times of heightened geopolitical instability and public health crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic, Israeli–Palestinian conflict, and the Russia–Ukraine war. Most studies use conditional mean regression models for testing linear Granger causality, which falls short in assessing time-varying causal relationships. This paper employs a time-varying Granger causality framework to examine the dynamic linkages between fossil fuel markets and carbon markets across multiple time horizons. This methodology enables the evaluation of causal relationships that evolve over time, providing deeper insights into how the carbon market interacts with traditional fossil fuel markets. The study examines causal linkages among carbon, coal, and oil prices from 2 January 2018 to 11 July 2025, using data from Wind Database. The findings reveal a short-lived yet highly significant bidirectional causality between the carbon and fossil fuel markets during the COVID-19 period, whereas a sustained and highly significant bidirectional causal relationship emerges after the onset of the Russia–Ukraine war. During the outbreak of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, this linkage continued without major disruptions or directional shifts. Furthermore, the recursive evolution approach, based on variable sub-window sizes, detects additional evidence of significant bidirectional causal relationships among carbon, coal, and oil prices. These discoveries can serve as valuable inputs for investors and policymakers, enabling them to make informed decisions that protect their interests and ensure market stability. Additionally, coal prices showed greater persistence than oil prices in these bidirectional causal links. Full article

Agricultural markets are increasingly exposed to global risks as climate change intensifies and macro-financial volatility becomes more prevalent. This study examines the dynamic interconnection between major agricultural commodities—soybeans, corn, wheat, rough rice, and sugar—and key uncertainty indicators, including climate policy uncertainty, global economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk, financial market volatility, oil price volatility, and the U.S. Dollar Index. Using a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model with monthly data, we assess both internal spillovers within the commodity system and external spillovers from macro-level uncertainties. On average, the external shock from the VIX to corn reaches 12.4%, and the spillover from RGEPU to wheat exceeds 10%, while internal links like corn to wheat remain below 8%. The results show that external uncertainty consistently dominates the connectedness structure, particularly during periods of geopolitical or financial stress, while internal interactions remain relatively subdued. Unexpectedly, recent global disruptions such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict do not exhibit strong or persistent effects on the connectedness patterns, likely due to model smoothing, stockpiling policies, and supply chain adaptations. These findings highlight the importance of strengthening international macro-financial and climate policy coordination to mitigate the propagation of external shocks. By distinguishing between internal and external connectedness under climate stress, this study contributes new insights into how systemic risks affect agri-food systems and offers a methodological framework for future risk monitoring. Full article

The US has undertaken both unconventional and conventional monetary policy stances in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine–Russia conflict, and there has been much debate on the effects of these various monetary policies on global financial markets. Our study considers the debate in the context of South Africa and uses the quantile–frequency connectedness approach to examine static and dynamic systemic spillover between the US shadow short rate (SSR) and South African equity, bond and currency markets between 1 December 2019 and 2 March 2023. The findings from the static analysis reveal that systemic connectedness is concentrated at their tail-end quantile distributions and US monetary policy plays a dominant role in transmitting these systemic shocks, albeit these shocks are mainly high frequency with very short cycles. However, the dynamic estimates further reveal that US monetary policy exerts longer-lasting spillover shocks to South African financial markets during periods corresponding to FOMC announcements of quantitative ‘easing’ or ‘tapering’ policies. Overall, these findings are useful for evaluating the effectiveness of the Reserve Bank’s macroprudential policies in ensuring market efficiency, as well as for enhancing investor decisions, portfolio allocation and risk management. Full article

Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine has led to profound disruptions in local and global agri-food markets. Since Ukraine is one of the world’s largest maize exporters, the war also contributed to considerable changes in trade reallocation, as well as an increase in the significance of the European Union in Ukrainian exports. This study analyses the effects of the Russian–Ukrainian war on horizontal maize price transmission between Ukraine and the EU countries. The panel autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) was applied to investigate the impact of the war on the price pass-through between those countries. The econometric analysis was performed on a weekly feed maize export price series for Ukraine and 14 selected EU countries. The time frame of research, January 2019 to December 2024, was split into pre-war and war periods. The study indicates that with the outbreak of the war, the long-term relationship between Ukraine and the EU’s maize prices has weakened. At the same time, there was an increase in the short-run maize price transmission between Ukraine and the Eastern EU countries. This proves that in the face of the conflict, market participants in these countries are increasingly guided by the market situation in Ukraine when making economic decisions. Full article

The use of Shakespeare within warzones and at the frontline of conflict centralizes vital questions about the role of the arts during times of profound crisis, when lives and liberties are under direct attack. This article first considers Shakespearean productions linked to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, concentrating on the inaugural Ukrainian Shakespeare Festival and two documentaries that reveal how staging Shakespeare can serve humanitarian needs, promote political debate, and help individuals to process their wartime experiences. It then expands to include examples from other conflicts, including the First World War and the ongoing crisis in Gaza, and argues that warzone productions—in addition to embracing what theatre can achieve at times of conflict—also address its limitations. Warzone performances often acknowledge a gulf between representation and lived experience, between tragedy as a dramatic form and reality, which is reinforced when the individuals staging Shakespeare are also ‘actors’ in the war. This article proposes that what unites war and theatre is the power of narrative for shaping action and interpretation, and this recognition underlines the responsibilities of political and theatrical narratives at times of war, as well as the role of the critic. Full article

In this study, we investigate the return propagation mechanism, hedging effectiveness, and portfolio performance across several common agricultural commodities, crude oil, and S&P 500 index, ranging from July 2000 to June 2024 by using a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) connectedness approach and three common multiple assets portfolio optimization strategies. The empirical results show that, the total connectedness peaked during the 2008 global financial crisis, followed by the European debt crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, while it remained relatively lower at the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In the transmission mechanism, commodities and S&P 500 index exhibit distinct and dynamic characteristics as transmitters or receivers. Portfolio analysis reveals that, with exception of the COVID-19 pandemic, all three dynamic portfolios outperform the S&P 500 benchmark across major global crises. Additionally, the minimum correlation and minimum connectedness strategies are superior than transitional minimum variance method in most scenarios. Our findings have implications for policymakers in preventing systemic risk, for investors in managing portfolio risk, and for farmers and agribusiness enterprises in enhancing economic benefits. Full article

Since the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine conflict in 2022, Ukraine’s agricultural production has faced significant disruption, leading to widespread cropland abandonment. These croplands were abandoned at different stages, primarily due to war-related destruction and displacement of people. Existing methods for detecting abandoned cropland fail to account for crop type differences and distinguish abandonment stages, leading to inaccuracies. Therefore, this study proposes a novel framework combining crop-type classification with the Bias-weighted Time-Weighted Dynamic Time Warping (BTWDTW) method, distinguishing between sowing and harvest abandonment. Additionally, the proposed framework improves accuracy by integrating a more nuanced analysis of crop-specific patterns, thus offering more precise insights into abandonment dynamics. The overall accuracy of the proposed method reached 88.9%. The results reveal a V-shaped trajectory of cropland abandonment, with abandoned areas increasing from 28,184 km² in 2022 to 33,278 km² in 2024, with 2023 showing an abandoned area of 24,007.65 km². Spatially, about 70% of sowing abandonment occurred in high-conflict areas, with hotspots of unplanted abandonment shifting from southern Ukraine to the northeast, while unharvested abandonment was observed across the entire country. Significant variations were found across crop types, with maize experiencing the highest rate of unharvested abandonment, while wheat exhibited a more balanced pattern of sowing and harvest losses. The proposed method and results provide valuable insights for post-conflict agricultural recovery and decision-making in recovery planning. Full article

In the digital communication ecosystem, micro-influencers have influenced public response during crises, especially in complex geopolitical contexts. This paper introduces the micro-influencer impact model (MIIM), a framework for analyzing the impact of micro-influencers on crisis communication. The MIIM integrates four components (micro-influencer characteristics, message framing and delivery, audience factors, and crisis context) offering a comprehensive approach to understanding micro-influencer dynamics during crises. Cross-conflict analysis spanning Ukraine–Russia, Sudan–Ethiopia, Armenia–Azerbaijan, Myanmar, Syria, and India–Pakistan tensions demonstrates the MIIM’s broad applicability across diverse geopolitical crises, showing how factors like perceived authenticity, niche expertise, narrative personalization, and audience digital literacy consistently shape public opinion and crisis response. The MIIM synthesizes crisis communication theories, social influence models, and digital media research, providing a sophisticated framework for studying the dissemination of information and public engagement during crises. The paper proposes theoretically grounded propositions on the impact of micro-influencers, encompassing perceived authenticity, narrative framing, and influence over time, thereby laying the groundwork for future empirical research. Implications for communication scholars, crisis managers, policymakers, and social media platforms are discussed, emphasizing the MIIM’s relevance to theory and practice in crisis communication. Full article

In 2022, the Russia–Ukraine conflict has severely impacted the EU’s energy supply chain, and the EU’s natural gas import pattern has begun to reconstruct, and exploring the spatiotemporal differentiation of EU natural gas trade and its driving factors is the basis for improving the resilience of its supply chain and ensuring the stable supply of energy resources. This paper summarizes the law of the change of its import volume by using the complex network method, constructs a multi-dimensional index system such as demand, economy, and security, and uses the geographic detector model to mine the driving factors affecting the spatiotemporal evolution of natural gas imports in EU countries and propose different sustainable development paths. The results show that from 2000 to 2023, Europe’s natural gas imports generally show an upward trend, and the import structure has undergone great changes, from pipeline gas dominance to LNG diversification. After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the number of import source countries has increased, the market network has become looser, France has become the core hub of the EU natural gas market, the importance of Russia has declined rapidly, and the status of countries in the United States, North Africa, and the Middle East has increased rapidly; natural gas consumption is the leading factor in the spatiotemporal differentiation of EU natural gas imports, and the influence of import distance and geopolitical risk is gradually expanding, and the proportion of energy consumption is significantly higher than that of other factors in the interaction with other factors. Combined with the driving factors, three different evolutionary directions of natural gas imports in EU countries are identified, and energy security paths such as improving supply chain control capabilities, ensuring export stability, and using location advantages to become hub nodes are proposed for different development trends. Full article

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has profoundly altered the global geopolitical landscape. Owing to its geographical proximity, the conflict has had a considerable impact on Europe. Marked by the professionalisation and democratisation of technology, it has underscored the growing significance of hybrid warfare, in which disinformation and propaganda serve as additional instruments of war. Within this context, the aim of this article is to examine the characteristics of false information related to the war between Russia and Ukraine in four European countries between 2022 and 2023. To this end, a content analysis of 297 hoaxes was conducted across eight fact-checking platforms, complemented by ten in-depth interviews with specialised professionals. The findings indicate that disinformation is characterised by viral audiovisual hoaxes, particularly on Facebook and X (formerly Twitter), with a notable surge in disinformation flows at the onset of the invasion. In the early months, misleading content predominantly consisted of decontextualised images of the conflict, whereas a year later, the focus shifted to narratives concerning international support and alliances. The primary objective of this disinformation is to polarise public opinion against a perceived common enemy. The conclusions provide a broader and more nuanced understanding of wartime disinformation within the European context. Full article

Global financial markets have experienced significant volatility during crises, particularly COVID-19 and the Russia–Ukraine conflict, prompting questions about how regional markets respond to such shocks. Previous research highlights the influence of crises on stock market volatility, focusing on individual events or global markets, but less is known about the comparative dynamics within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) markets. Our study investigated volatility and asymmetric behavior within GCC stock markets during both crises. Furthermore, the econometric model E-GARCH(1,1) was applied to the daily frequency data of financial stock market returns from 11 March 2020 to 31 July 2023. This study examined volatility fluctuation patterns and provides a comparative assessment of GCC stock markets’ behavior during crises. Our findings reveal varying degrees of market volatility across the region during the COVID-19 crisis, with Qatar and the UAE exhibiting the highest levels of volatility persistence. In contrast, the Russia–Ukraine conflict has had a distinct effect on GCC markets, with Oman exhibiting the highest volatility persistence and Kuwait having the lowest volatility persistence. This study provides significant insights for policymakers and investors in managing risk and enhancing market resilience during economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Full article