Search Results (28)

The rapid expansion of bike-sharing systems has introduced significant management challenges related to spatial-temporal demand fluctuations and inefficient e-fence capacity allocation. This study proposes a Spatio-Temporal Graph Attention Transformer Network (STGATN), a novel hybrid deep learning framework for dynamic demand forecasting in bike-sharing e-fence systems. The model integrates Graph Convolutional Networks to capture complex spatial dependencies among urban functional zones, Bi-LSTM networks to model temporal patterns with periodic variations, and attention mechanisms to dynamically incorporate weather impacts. By constructing a city-level graph based on POI-derived e-fences and implementing multi-source feature fusion through Transformer architecture, the STGATN effectively addresses the limitations of static capacity allocation strategies. The experimental results from Shenzhen’s Nanshan District demonstrate the performance, with the STGATN model achieving an overall Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.0992 and a Coefficient of Determination (R²) of 0.8426. This significantly outperforms baseline models such as LSTM (R²: 0.6215) and a GCN (R²: 0.5488). Ablation studies confirm the model’s key components are critical; removing the GCN module decreased R² by 12 percentage points to 0.7411, while removing the weather attention mechanism reduced R² by nearly 5 percentage points to 0.8034. The framework provides a scientific basis for dynamic e-fence capacity management, advancing spatio-temporal prediction methodologies for sustainable transportation. Full article

Governments are encouraging public transportation and bicycle-sharing systems to promote sustainable development and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Despite the expansion of Taipei’s YouBike program, many stations frequently run out of bikes or docking spaces, and current redistribution strategies are suboptimal. This study proposes a novel approach to optimize YouBike allocation under resource constraints. We first used K-means clustering to group stations with similar rental profiles, reducing the number of models needed. A random forest model selected key crowd grid factors as input variables for a long short-term memory (LSTM) prediction model to accurately predict demand patterns, including during special events or weather changes. A genetic algorithm then determined optimal station configurations and provided return station recommendations, considering user destinations and station dock ratios, while minimizing manual redistribution. Simulations demonstrated that the proposed system meets user needs, enhances operational efficiency, and significantly reduces manual redistribution costs. Our methods have practical applicability for YouBike managers, indicating that user compliance with recommendations can offset the need for manual redistribution and support the current policy of recommending stations within 600 m of the user’s destination. Full article

Bike-sharing has emerged as an innovative green transportation mode, showing promising potential in addressing the ‘last-mile’ transportation challenge in an eco-friendly manner. However, shared bikes around metro stations often face supply–demand imbalance problems during peak hours, causing bike shortages or congestion that compromise user experience and bike utilization. Accurate prediction enables operators to develop rational dispatch strategies, improve bike turnover rate, and promote synergistic metro–bike integration. However, state-of-the-art research predominantly focuses on improving complex deep-learning models while overlooking their inherent drawbacks, such as overfitting and poor interpretability. This study proposes a model–data dual-driven approach that integrates the classical statistical regression model as a model-driven component and the advanced deep-learning model as a data-driven component. The model-driven component uses the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model to extract periodic patterns and seasonal variations of historical data, while the data-driven component employs an Extended Long Short-Term Memory (xLSTM) neural network to process nonlinear relationships and unexpected variations. The fusion model achieved R-squared values of 0.9928 and 0.9770 for morning access and evening egress flows, respectively, and reached 0.9535 and 0.9560 for morning egress and evening access flows. The xLSTM model demonstrates an 8% improvement in R² compared to the conventional LSTM model in the morning egress flow scenario. For the morning egress and evening access flows, which exhibit relatively high variability, classical statistical models show limited effectiveness (SARIMA’s R² values are 0.8847 and 0.9333, respectively). Even in scenarios like morning access and evening egress, where classical statistical models perform well, our proposed fusion model still demonstrates enhanced performance. Therefore, the proposed data–model dual-driven architecture provides a reliable data foundation for shared bike rebalancing and shows potential for addressing the challenges of limited robustness in statistical regression models and the susceptibility of deep-learning models to overfitting, ultimately enhancing transportation ecosystem sustainability. Full article

The growing number of algorithmic decision-making environments, which blend machine and bounded human rationality, strengthen the need for a holistic performance assessment of such systems. Indeed, this combination amplifies the risk of local rationality, necessitating a robust evaluation framework. We propose a novel simulation-based model to quantify algorithmic interventions within organisational contexts, combining causal modelling and data science algorithms. To test our framework’s viability, we present a case study based on a bike-share system focusing on inventory balancing through crowdsourced user actions. Utilising New York’s Citi Bike service data, we highlight the frequent misalignment between incentives and their necessity. Our model examines the interaction dynamics between user and service provider rule-driven responses and algorithms predicting flow rates. This examination demonstrates why understanding these dynamics is essential for devising effective incentive policies. The study showcases how sophisticated machine learning models, with the ability to forecast underlying market demands unconstrained by historical supply issues, can cause imbalances that induce user behaviour, potentially spoiling plans without timely interventions. Our approach allows problems to surface during the design phase, potentially avoiding costly deployment errors in the joint performance of human and AI decision-makers. Full article

The prediction of bike-sharing demand plays a pivotal role in the optimization of intelligent transportation systems, particularly amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, which has significantly altered travel behaviors and demand dynamics. In this study, we examine various spatiotemporal influencing factors associated with bike-sharing and propose the Local-Global Dynamic Multi-Graph Convolutional Network (LGDMGCN) model, driven by multi-source data, for multi-step prediction of station-level bike-sharing demand. In the temporal dimension, we dynamically model temporal dependencies by incorporating multiple sources of time semantic features such as confirmed COVID-19 cases, weather conditions, and holidays. Additionally, we integrate a time attention mechanism to better capture variations over time. In the spatial dimension, we consider factors related to the addition or removal of stations and utilize spatial semantic features, such as urban points of interest and station locations, to construct dynamic multi-graphs. The model utilizes a local-global structure to capture spatial dependencies among individual bike-sharing stations and all stations collectively. Experimental results, obtained through comparisons with baseline models on the same dataset and conducting ablation studies, demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model in predicting bike-sharing demand. Full article

Bike-sharing systems can definitely contribute to the achievement of sustainable urban mobility. In spite of this potential, their planning and operation are not free of difficulties. The main operational problem of bike-sharing systems is the unbalanced distribution of bicycles over the service region, resulting in zones where bicycles are scarce and zones where bicycles accumulate. In order to provide an acceptable level of service, the operator needs to carry out repositioning movements, which are costly. Bike-sharing repositioning optimization solutions have been developed that rely on the estimation of the expected number of requests and returns at each location. Errors in this prediction are directly transferred to suboptimal repositioning solutions. For this reason, the development of methodologies able to accurately forecast bike-sharing usage is an issue of great concern. This paper deals with this problem using machine learning regression methods, which yield usage predictions from inputs such as historical usage and meteorological data. Three different machine learning regression techniques have been analyzed (i.e., random forest, gradient boosting, and artificial neural networks) and applied to a case study based on the New York City bike-sharing system. This paper describes the variables of the models and their calibration processes. Results are analyzed and compared in order to determine which one of the three techniques and under what conditions is the most adequate. Comparisons are not only made in terms of accuracy but also with respect to the applicability of the algorithms. Results indicate that, given the similar accuracy of all methods, the simpler calibration process of the random forest technique makes it advisable for most applications. Full article

This research aims to address the limited consideration given to non-motorized transport facilities in current studies on shared bike travel demand forecasting. This study is the first to propose a method that applies complete citywide non-motorized facility data to predict bike-sharing demand. This study employs a multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model to examine the effects of non-motorized transport facility conditions, quantity of intersections, and land use per unit area on riding demand at various spatial scales. The results of comparison experiments reveal that riding demand is substantially affected by non-motorized transport facilities and the quantity of intersections. Full article

In this study, we present a framework for optimizing pick-up and delivery operations in bike-sharing systems (BSSs), with particular emphasis on inventory rebalancing and vehicle routing to enhance operational efficiency. By employing a hybrid genetic algorithm (HGA), this study integrates sophisticated predictive models with multi-objective optimization techniques to strike a balance between operational efficiency and demand fulfillment in urban bike-share networks. For probabilistic demand forecasting, the DeepAR model is applied to a large number of bike stations clustered by geological proximity to enable stochastic inventory management. Our proposed HGA approach leverages both the genetic algorithm for generating feasible vehicle routes and mixed-integer programming for bike rebalancing to minimize travel distances while maintaining balanced inventory levels across all clustered stations. Through rigorous empirical evaluations, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed methodology in improving service quality, thus making significant contributions to sustainable urban mobility. This study not only pushes the boundaries of theoretical knowledge in BSS logistics optimization but also offers managerial insights for practical implementation, particularly in densely populated urban settings. Full article

Public transportation scheduling aims to optimize the allocation of resources, enhance efficiency, and increase passenger satisfaction, all of which are crucial for building a sustainable urban transportation system. As a complement to public transportation, bike-sharing systems provide users with a solution for the last mile of travel, compensating for the lack of flexibility in public transportation and helping to improve its utilization rate. Due to the characteristics of shared bikes, including peak usage periods in the morning and evening and significant demand fluctuations across different areas, optimizing shared bike dispatch can better meet user needs, reduce vehicle vacancy rates, and increase operating revenue. To address this issue, this article proposes a comprehensive decision-making approach for spatiotemporal demand prediction and bike dispatch optimization. For demand prediction, we design a T-GCN (Temporal Graph Convolutional Network)-based bike demand prediction model. In terms of dispatch optimization, we consider factors such as dispatch capacity, distance restrictions, and dispatch costs, and design an optimization solution based on genetic algorithms. Finally, we validate the approach using shared bike operating data and show that the T-GCN can effectively predict the short-term demand for shared bikes. Meanwhile, the optimization model based on genetic algorithms provides a complete dispatch solution, verifying the model’s effectiveness. The shared bike dispatch approach proposed in this paper combines demand prediction with resource scheduling. This scheme can also be extended to other transportation scheduling problems with uncertain demand, such as store replenishment delivery and intercity inventory dispatch. Full article

Bike-sharing systems (BSS) have emerged as an increasingly important form of transportation in smart cities, playing a pivotal role in the evolving landscape of urban mobility. As cities worldwide strive to promote sustainable and efficient transportation options, BSS offer a flexible, eco-friendly alternative that complements traditional public transport systems. These systems, however, are complex and influenced by a myriad of endogenous and exogenous factors. This complexity poses challenges in predicting BSS activity and optimizing its usage and effectiveness. This study delves into the dynamics of the BSS in Hamburg, Germany, focusing on system stability and activity prediction. We propose an interpretable attention-based Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) model and compare its performance with the state-of-the-art Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. The proposed TFT model outperforms the LSTM model with a 36.8% improvement in RMSE and overcomes current black-box models via interpretability. Via detailed analysis, key factors influencing bike-sharing activity, especially in terms of temporal and spatial contexts, are identified, examined, and evaluated. Based on the results, we propose interventions and a deployed TFT model that can improve the effectiveness of BSS. This research contributes to the evolving field of sustainable urban mobility via data analysis for data-informed decision-making. Full article

Several determinants affect the reason to cycle or not, and some of them are described in a detailed way in the current technical literature review. The recent spread of new modes of active mobility brings up questions for urban transport planners on how to foresee future demand and assess safety conditions; from this comes the need to explore the relationships among several determinants. In this paper, after the collection of the main data required, three Regression Models are proposed, which demonstrate evidence for the role of safety and energy expenditure issues as important predictors. The method is applied to a dataset of 90 Italian cities selected according to their class of dimensionality and geographical position. The three models for each class of dimensionality (50,000–100,000 no. of inhabitants, 10,000–50,000 no. of inhabitants, and 0–10,000 no. of inhabitants) show a good accuracy (in terms of adj-R² values of 0.6991, 0.7111, and 0.6619, respectively). The results show that energy expenditure, which is related to the terrain characteristics of an urban area and individual aerobic abilities, and safety perception, which is related to cycle network extensions, appear to be significant determinants in predicting bicycle modal share. The aim is to provide a useful and simplified tool, when only aggregated-type data are available, to help urban road designers and city planners in identifying and forecasting bike-sharing. Full article

Dockless Bike-Sharing (DBS) is an eco-friendly, convenient, and popular form of ride-sharing. Metro-oriented DBS systems have the potential to promote sustainable transportation. However, the availability of DBS near metro stations often suffers from either scarcity or overabundance. To investigate the factors contributing to this imbalance, this paper examines the nonlinear influences and interactions that impact the DBS system near metro stations, with Shenzhen, China serving as a case study. An ensemble learning approach is employed to predict the imbalance state. Then, the machine learning interpretation method (i.e., SHapley Additive exPlanations) is used to quantify the contribution of effects, discover the strength of interactions between factors and uncover their underlying interactive connections. The results indicate the influence of external factors and the relations between pairwise variables (e.g., road density and the day of the week) for each imbalanced state. Provide two quantized sets of factors that can result in the supply-demand imbalance and support future transport planning decisions to enhance the accessibility and sustainability of Metro-oriented DBS systems. Full article

Shared bicycles provide a green, environmentally friendly, and healthy mode of transportation that effectively addresses the “final mile” problem in urban travel. However, the uneven distribution of bicycles and the imbalance of user demand can significantly impact user experience and bicycle usage efficiency, which makes it necessary to predict bicycle demand. In this paper, we propose a novel shared-bicycle demand prediction method based on station clustering. First, to address the challenge of capturing patterns in station-level bicycle demand, which exhibits significant fluctuations, we employ a clustering method that combines graph information from the bicycle transfer graph and potential energy. This method aggregates closely related stations into corresponding prediction regions. Second, we use the GCN-CRU-AM (Graph Convolutional Network-Gated Recurrent Unit-Attention Mechanism) model to predict bicycle demand in each region. This model extracts the spatial information and correlation between regions, integrates time feature data and local weather data, and assigns weights to the input features. Finally, experimental results based on the data from Citi Bike System in New York City demonstrate that the proposed model achieves a more accurate demand prediction. Full article

Background: Conventional bike sharing systems are frequently adding electric bicycles. A major question now arises: Does the bike sharing system have a sufficient number of ebikes available, and are there customers who prefer to use an ebike even though none are available? Methods: Trip data from three different bike sharing systems (Indego in Philadelphia, Santander Cycles in London, and Metro in Los Angeles and Austin) have been used in this study. To determine if an ebike was available at the station when a customer departed, an algorithm was created. Using only those trips that departed while an ebike was available, a random forest classifier and deep neural network classifier were used to predict whether the trip was completed with an ebike or not. These models were used to predict the potential demand for ebikes at times when no ebikes were available. Results: For the system with the highest prediction accuracy, Santander Cycles in London, between 21% and 27% of the trips were predicted to have used an ebike if one had been available. The most important features were temperature, distance, wind speed, and altitude difference. Conclusion: The prediction methods can help bike sharing operators to estimate the current demand for ebikes. Full article

Due to global ecological restrictions, cities, particularly urban transportation, must choose ecological solutions. Sustainable bike-sharing systems (BSS) have become an important element in the worldwide transportation infrastructure as an alternative to fossil-fuel-powered cars in metropolitan areas. Nevertheless, the placement of docks, which are the parking areas for bikes, depends on accessibility to bike paths, population density, difficulty in bike mobility, commuting cost, the spread of docks, and route imbalance. The purpose of this study is to compare the performance of various time series and machine learning algorithms for predicting bike demand using a two-year historical log from the Capital Bikeshare system in Washington, DC, USA. Specifically, the algorithms tested are LSTM, GRU, RF, ARIMA, and SARIMA, and their performance is then measured using the MSE, MAE, and RMSE metrics. The study found GRU performed the best, with RF also producing reasonably accurate predictions. ARIMA and SARIMA models produced less accurate predictions, likely due to their assumptions of linearity and stationarity in the data. In summary, this research offers significant insights into the efficacy of diverse algorithms in forecasting bike demand, thereby contributing to future research in the field. Full article