Search Results (7,736)

Extremely high temperatures can severely impact urban livability and public health safety. However, risk assessments for high temperatures in cold-region cities remain inadequate. This study focuses on Dalian, a coastal city in northeastern China. Utilizing multi-source data, we established a population density prediction model based on the random forest algorithm and a heat vulnerability index (HVI) framework following the “Exposure-Sensitivity-Adaptability” paradigm constructed using an indicator system method, thereby building a high-temperature risk assessment system suited for more refined research. The results indicate the following: (1) Strong positive correlations exist between nighttime light brightness (NL), Road Density (RD), the proportion of flat area (SLP), the land surface temperature (LST), and the population distribution density, with correlation coefficients reaching 0.963, 0.963, 0.956, and 0.954, respectively. (2) Significant disparities exist in the spatial distribution of different criterion layers within the study area. Areas characterized by high exposure, high sensitivity, and low adaptability account for 13.04%, 8.05%, and 21.44% of the total area, respectively, with exposure being the primary contributing factor to high-temperature risk. (3) Areas classified as high-risk or extremely high-risk for high temperatures constitute 31.57% of the study area. The spatial distribution exhibits a distinct pattern, decreasing gradually from east to west and from the coast inland. This study provides a valuable tool for decision-makers to propose targeted adaptation strategies and measures based on the assessment results, thereby better addressing the challenges posed by climate change-induced high-temperature risks and promoting sustainable urban development. Full article

This study integrates the health impacts of environmental burdens and dietary intake using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to inform a healthier, more sustainable Japanese diet. Climate change, air pollution, ozone depletion, photochemical oxidants, and water consumption were quantified with Life cycle Impact assessment Method based on Endpoint modeling (LIME), while eleven dietary risks were converted to DALYs using dietary risk factors. Recipes collected online on a per-serving basis were classified into staple, main, side, and soup dishes and stratified into quartiles based on a nutrient profiling system (NPS) tailored to Japanese well-consumed dishes—the Ajinomoto Group NPS (ANPS) for dishes. ANPS—a culturally adapted NPS emphasizing protein, vegetables, sodium, and saturated fatty acids—was regressed against total DALYs to test whether higher ANPS scores correspond to lower combined health impacts of environment and diet. The analysis identified dish groups and high-scoring quartiles that minimized environmental and nutrition-related DALYs, revealing practical dish combinations that balance reduced sodium and red meat with increased vegetables, seafood, and nuts. These findings demonstrate the utility of coupling nutrient profiling with life cycle assessment (LCA) and provide a scientific basis for dietary guidelines that jointly advance human and planetary health within the emerging nutritional LCA framework. Full article

The construction of the Xinyang Urban Water Supply Project, centered on the Chushandian Reservoir, required a thorough investigation of high–low runoff encounters between the water source and receiving areas to optimize water allocation and operational scheduling. Based on the hydrological stations at Changtaiguan (CTG) on the main stream of the Huaihe River (HR) in the water source area and Miaowan (MW) on the main stream of the Honghe River in the receiving area, the trends and abrupt change characteristics of monthly runoff from 2014 to 2024 were analyzed using methods such as extremum symmetry mode decomposition (ESMD) and heuristic segmentation, with spatial encounter patterns determined using Copula functions. The results indicate that (1) the runoff in the water source area showed a quasi-6.05-month periodic characteristic on a monthly scale, while the runoff in the receiving area exhibited a quasi-6.72-month periodic characteristic on a monthly scale; (2) the water source area experienced runoff mutation in August 2015 (extreme drought) and June 2024 (extreme precipitation), with the receiving area responding 7 months earlier than the water source area, revealing differences in system vulnerability; (3) synchronous hydrological states were significantly more likely to occur (51.2%) compared with asynchronous conditions (25.2%), with the highest probability of “concurrent drought” (19.8%) and a high-risk “normal water source—receiving area drought” combination (14.1%). These findings provide theoretical and technical support for the optimized scheduling of the Chushandian Reservoir, improving the resilience and adaptability of the Xinyang Urban Water Supply Project to climate fluctuations and extreme hydrological events. Full article

In the context of global climate change and efforts toward “carbon peak and carbon neutrality,” forest resource protection and restoration have become fundamental to ecological civilization. The genetic improvement of trees, as the primary component of forest ecosystems, holds strategic importance for ecological security, resource supply, and carbon neutrality. Traditional tree breeding techniques, including selective and hybrid breeding, have established robust technical systems through extensive practice. However, these methods face limitations such as extended cycles, reduced efficiency, and constrained genetic gains in meeting contemporary requirements. Modern biotechnologies, including genomic selection (GS), gene editing (CRISPR/Cas9), and marker-assisted selection (MAS), substantially enhance the precision and efficiency of genetic improvement. Nevertheless, exclusive reliance on either traditional or modern methods proves insufficient for addressing complex environmental adaptation and rapid breeding requirements. Consequently, the integration of traditional breeding with modern biotechnology to develop intelligent, sustainable, and efficient breeding strategies has emerged as a central focus in tree genetics and breeding. An integrated “step-by-step” approach warrants promotion, supported by a multi-source data sharing platform, an optimized core germplasm repository, and a “climate-soil-genotype” matching model to facilitate the region-specific deployment of improved varieties. Full article

Agricultural markets are increasingly exposed to global risks as climate change intensifies and macro-financial volatility becomes more prevalent. This study examines the dynamic interconnection between major agricultural commodities—soybeans, corn, wheat, rough rice, and sugar—and key uncertainty indicators, including climate policy uncertainty, global economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk, financial market volatility, oil price volatility, and the U.S. Dollar Index. Using a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model with monthly data, we assess both internal spillovers within the commodity system and external spillovers from macro-level uncertainties. On average, the external shock from the VIX to corn reaches 12.4%, and the spillover from RGEPU to wheat exceeds 10%, while internal links like corn to wheat remain below 8%. The results show that external uncertainty consistently dominates the connectedness structure, particularly during periods of geopolitical or financial stress, while internal interactions remain relatively subdued. Unexpectedly, recent global disruptions such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict do not exhibit strong or persistent effects on the connectedness patterns, likely due to model smoothing, stockpiling policies, and supply chain adaptations. These findings highlight the importance of strengthening international macro-financial and climate policy coordination to mitigate the propagation of external shocks. By distinguishing between internal and external connectedness under climate stress, this study contributes new insights into how systemic risks affect agri-food systems and offers a methodological framework for future risk monitoring. Full article

This study analyses the impacts of winter storms on beach response, as well as the subsequent recovery during spring and summer, at a dissipative sandy beach in Brandon Bay, Ireland. Shoreline dynamics were assessed through the integration of field data from five survey campaigns conducted between October 2021 and November 2022 with a 1D Xbeach (version 1.23) numerical model. Cross-sectional profiles were measured at seven locations, revealing pronounced erosion during winter, followed by recovery in calmer seasons, especially in the lower beach zone. The model effectively simulated short-term storm-induced morphological changes, demonstrating that rates of shoreline retreat and profile alteration are higher in the eastern bay, where wave energy is greater. Most morphological changes occurred between the low and high astronomical tide marks, characterized by upper beach erosion and lower beach accretion. Models were subsequently employed to examine future climate scenarios, including sea level rise and increased storm intensity. The projections indicated an exponential increase in erosion rates, correlated with higher storm wave heights and frequencies. These results highlight the dynamic response of dissipative beaches to extreme events and reinforce the necessity for adaptive coastal management strategies to address the escalating risks posed by climate change. Full article

This article presents a comparative evaluation of three established thermal comfort models (ISSO 74, ASHRAE 55, and EN 16798-1) in the context of residential buildings in Algiers, under current and projected Mediterranean climate conditions. By combining field measurements, occupant interviews, and dynamic simulations in DesignBuilder, this research analyzes thermal comfort responses using the RCP 8.5 climate scenario. The analysis demonstrates that ISSO 74 is more suitable for temperature adaptation, while EN 16798-1 offers better humidity tolerance in high-moisture environments. Results reveal that indoor thermal discomfort currently affects more than one-third of the annual hours, with summer discomfort projected to dominate by 2100. Bedrooms are identified as the most thermally vulnerable spaces during peak summer weeks. The article identifies a critical mismatch between existing comfort standards and local climatic realities, calling for the development of an adaptive thermal comfort model tailored to the socio-economic and hygrothermal characteristics of North African cities. Passive strategies and mixed-mode ventilation are recommended as essential for enhancing climate resilience and reducing energy demand. Full article

This review examines South Africa’s escalating flood vulnerability through a synthesis of over 80 peer-reviewed articles, historical records, policy reports, and case studies. Using a PRISMA-guided analysis, the study identifies key climatic drivers, including extreme rainfall from tropical–temperate interactions, cut-off lows, and La Niña conditions that interact with structural weaknesses such as inadequate drainage, poorly maintained stormwater systems, and rapid urban expansion. Apartheid-era spatial planning has further entrenched risk by locating marginalised communities in floodplains. Governance failures like weak disaster risk reduction (DRR) policies, fragmented institutional coordination, and insufficient early warning systems intensify flood vulnerabilities. Catastrophic events in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and the Western Cape (WC) illustrate the consequences exemplified by the April 2022 KZN floods alone, which caused over 450 deaths, displaced more than 40,000 people, and generated damages exceeding ZAR 17 billion. Nationally, more than 1500 flood-related fatalities have been documented in the past two decades. Emerging resilience pathways include ecosystem-based adaptation, green infrastructure, participatory governance, integration of Indigenous knowledge, improved hydrological forecasting, and stricter land-use enforcement. These approaches can simultaneously reduce physical risks and address entrenched socio-economic inequalities. However, significant gaps remain in spatial flood modelling, gender-sensitive responses, urban–rural disparities, and policy implementation. The review concludes that South Africa urgently requires integrated, multi-scalar strategies that combine scientific innovation, policy reform, and community-based action. Embedding these insights into disaster management policy and planning is essential to curb escalating losses and build long-term resilience in the face of climate change. Full article

Urbanization is a driving force of landscape transformation. One of the ecosystems most vulnerable to urban expansion processes is montane forests located in high altitude mountainous regions. Despite their significance for biodiversity, regulation of the hydrological cycle, stability, prevention of soil erosion, and potential for organic carbon storage, these forest ecosystems show high vulnerability and risk due to the global urbanization process. We analyzed the potential variations produced by land cover change in some attributes related to soil organic matter in transitional forest fragments due to the expansion of a predominantly urban matrix landscape. We identified and characterized a fragment of a high montane evergreen forest in the Western Cordillera of the Northern Andes located in the urban limits of Quito. Then, we comparatively analyzed the variations in the attributes associated with soil organic carbon: soil organic matter, density, texture, nitrogen, phosphorus, and pH. We also considered the following soil coverages: forest, eucalyptus plantations, and grassland. We viewed the latter two as hinge coverages between forests and urban expansion. Finally, we estimated variations in soil organic carbon stock in the three analyzed coverages. For the montane forest fragment, we identified 253 individuals distributed among 18 species, corresponding to 10 families and 14 genera. We found significant variations in soil attributes associated with organic matter and an estimated 66% reduction in the carbon storage capacity of montane soils when they lose their natural cover and are replaced by Eucalyptus globulus plantations. Urban planning strategies should consider the conservation and restoration of natural and degraded peri-urban areas, ensuring sustainability and utilizing nature-based solutions for global climate change adaptation and mitigation. Peri-urban agroforestry systems represent an opportunity to replace and restore conventional forestry or crop plantation systems in peri-urban areas that affect the structure and function of ecosystems and, therefore, the goods and services derived from them. Full article

This study assesses the impact of climate change and glacier retreat on river runoff in the high-altitude Terek River Basin using the physically based ECOMAG hydrological model. Sensitivity experiments examined the influence of glaciation, precipitation, and air temperature on runoff variability. Results indicate that glacier retreat primarily affects streamflow in upper reaches during peak melt (July–October), while precipitation changes influence both annual runoff and peak flows (May–October). Rising temperatures shift snowmelt to earlier periods, increasing runoff in spring and autumn but reducing it in summer. The increase in autumn runoff is also due to the shift between solid and liquid precipitation, as warmer temperatures cause more precipitation to fall as rain, rather than snow. Scenario-based modeling incorporated projected glacier area changes (GloGEMflow-DD) and regional climate data (CORDEX) under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Simulated runoff changes by the end of the 21st century (2070–2099) compared to the historical period (1977–2005) ranged from −2% to +5% under RCP2.6 and from −8% to +14% under RCP8.5. Analysis of runoff components (snowmelt, rainfall, and glacier melt) revealed that changes in river flow are largely determined by the elevation of snow and glacier accumulation zones and the rate of their degradation. The projected trends are consistent with current observations and emphasize the need for adaptive water resource management and risk mitigation strategies in glacier-fed catchments under climate change. Full article

To explore the spatiotemporal evolution of extreme temperature events in Guangxi (1940–2023), reveal regional response mechanisms, and assess future trends of persistence under climate warming, a multi-scale analysis was conducted using ERA5 reanalysis data. Methodologies included RH tests for homogeneity correction, collaborative kriging for data optimisation, Mann–Kendall tests for trend and abrupt change detection, Morlet wavelet analysis for cyclic pattern identification, Exploratory Spatio-Temporal Data Analysis (ESTDA) for spatial heterogeneity quantification, and Rescaled Range (R/S) analysis to calculate Hurst indices for future persistence assessment. Results showed the following: (1) The ERA5 dataset exhibited high applicability in Guangxi (R = 0.9989, RMSE = 1.9492 °C), supporting robust evidence of continuous warming—warm indices (e.g., SU25, TX90p) increased significantly (SU25 at 0.2044 d/10a), while cold indices (e.g., TN10p, FD0) declined (TN10p at −0.0519 d/10a); abrupt changes of cold indices were concentrated in 1942–1950, with warm indices accelerating post-2000 and TXx exhibited the highest warming rate (0.23 °C/decade). (2) Extreme temperature indices displayed a primary 19–21-year oscillation cycle (dominant in warm indices) and a secondary 13-year cycle (prominent in cold indices). (3) Spatial heterogeneity featured northwest–southeast cold–heat inversion, coastal–inland intensity gradients, and latitudinal zonation of extreme indices; ESTDA revealed intensified polarisation, with warm indices clustering in low-latitude regions (e.g., Baise) and cold indices declining homogeneously in mountainous areas (e.g., Guilin), indicating an irreversible transition to a warming steady state. (4) R/S analysis indicated all indices had Hurst indices of 0.65–0.92, reflecting persistent future trends consistent with historical evolution, with warm indices (e.g., TNn, SU25) showing stronger persistence (H > 0.85). This work clarifies the spatial polarisation mechanism and future persistence of extreme temperature dynamics in Guangxi, providing a multi-scale scientific basis for disaster early warning and adaptation planning in climate-sensitive karst-monsoon regions. Full article

Scarturus williamsi (Williams’ jerboa) is a medium-sized, semi-fossorial rodent endemic to steppe ecosystems across Anatolia, Iran, and Azerbaijan, with specialized habitat requirements in semi-arid continental environments. This study integrates a mitochondrial DNA analysis with species distribution modeling to assess the species’ evolutionary structure and vulnerability to future climate change. The phylogeographic analysis and species distribution modeling reveal the evolutionary history and climate vulnerability of Scarturus williamsi across Anatolia and adjacent regions. The mitochondrial DNA analysis of 98 individuals demonstrates exceptional haplotype diversity (Hd = 0.9896), with 90 unique haplotypes and complete regional isolation, indicating pronounced population structuring across five evolutionary lineages: Central Anatolia, Eastern Anatolia, Aegean, Black Sea, and Azerbaijan–Iran. The Iran–Azerbaijan lineage exhibits the deepest evolutionary divergence, while Eastern Anatolia functions as the primary Anatolian refugium and Central Anatolia as the secondary refugial center. The strong isolation by distance (r = 0.735, p < 0.001) across ~2500 km explains 54.0% of the genetic variation, with the hierarchical structure reflecting greater Iran–Turkey isolation than intra-Turkish differentiation. The species distribution modeling identifies the Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter (bio9) and the Mean Diurnal Range (bio2) as primary habitat determinants, with bimodal preferences reflecting highland versus steppe adaptations. Climate projections reveal severe vulnerability with habitat losses of 63.69–98.41% by 2081–2100 across emission scenarios. SSP3-7.0 represents the most catastrophic scenario, with a severe habitat reduction (98.41% loss), while even optimistic scenarios (SSP1-2.6) project a 60–70% habitat loss. All scenarios show accelerating degradation through mid-century, with the steepest losses occurring between 2041 and 2080. Projected eastward shifts face constraints from the Anatolian Diagonal, limiting the climate tracking capacity. Despite occupying open landscapes, S. williamsi exhibits exceptional sensitivity to climate change, with Anatolian refugial areas representing critical diversity centers facing substantial degradation. Results provide baseline genetic structure and climate vulnerability information for understanding climate impacts on S. williamsi and Irano–Anatolian steppe fauna. Full article

Understanding coastal hydraulic processes is essential for sustainable coastal planning and management, especially in semi-arid regions where data scarcity represents a significant challenge. This study sought to apply the Brazilian Coastal Modelling System (SMC-Brasil) to analyse the coastal hydraulic processes present on the Brazilian semi-arid coast in Rio Grande do Norte, seeking to understand its boundary conditions given the scarcity of data and limited monitoring network. The methodological procedures followed five main stages: data collection and processing, running the models, statistical analysis, and interpretation of the results. The simulations identified wave propagation and dissipation patterns influenced by local bathymetric features such as sandy banks and submarine canyons. The modelling indicated waves with an average Hs₅₀% of 1.14 m, with dominant directions from ENE to ESE. Longitudinal flows ranged from 1 to 8 m³/h, with a predominance of east to west at medium and high tides. The modelling indicated spatial gradients of energy and sediment transport compatible with historical records and field observations. The results show that submerged relief irregularities play a central role in regional coastal dynamics, conditioning current flows and deposition. The application of SMC-Brasil has shown potential to fill monitoring gaps in regions with low infrastructure, offering affordable and effective technical support for adaptive coastal planning in the face of climate change impacts. Full article

Seawater impact poses increasing challenges to coastal road infrastructure, creating urgent needs for a comprehensive understanding of current research trends and knowledge gaps to enhance infrastructure resilience and sustainability. This study employs a combined systematic literature review (SLR) and bibliometric analysis using PRISMA methodology to examine seawater-impacted road infrastructure research from 1952 to 2025. An initial dataset of 185 articles from 150 sources was filtered to 47 articles for detailed analysis, covering research by 481 authors with a 0.95% annual growth rate. Bibliometric analysis revealed significant geographic disparities, with only 13.51% of international collaborations. The United States, China, and Japan emerged as leading contributors, while Norway demonstrated the highest impact with 39.00 citations per article. Eight critical themes were identified in pavement management and infrastructure resilience, showing a shift toward technology-based solutions, including real-time monitoring technologies, sustainable materials, and adaptive management strategies. Despite growing emphasis on technological solutions, significant research gaps persist in understanding road structure–ecosystem interactions and developing comprehensive long-term monitoring methods. The study indicates an urgent need for increased international collaboration and interdisciplinary approaches combining civil engineering with environmental science to effectively address coastal road infrastructure challenges and enhance global sustainability. Full article

Estimating the impacts of climate change on streamflow in the Xiaoxingkai Lake Basin is vital for ensuring sustainable water resource management and transboundary cooperation across the entire Xingkai Lake Basin, a transboundary lake system shared between China and Russia. In this study, 11 Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) were used to drive the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus (SWAT+) model. Streamflow projections were made for two future periods: the 2040s (2021–2060) and the 2080s (2061–2100). To correct for systematic biases in the GCM outputs, we applied the Delta Change method, which significantly reduced root mean square error (RMSE) in both precipitation and temperature by 3–35%, thereby improving the accuracy of SWAT+ simulations. To better capture inter-model variability and enhance the robustness of streamflow projections, we used the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) technique to generate a weighted ensemble, which outperformed the simple arithmetic mean by reducing uncertainty across models. Our results indicated that under SSP245, greater increases were projected in annual streamflow as well as in wet and normal-flow seasons (e.g., streamflow in normal-flow season in the 2080s increased by 13.0% under SSP245, compared to 7.0% under SSP585). However, SSP585 produced a much larger relative amplification in the dry season, with percentage changes relative to the historical baseline reaching up to +171.7% in the 2080s, although the corresponding absolute increases remained limited due to the low baseline flow. These findings quantify climate-driven hydrological changes in a cool temperate lake basin by integrating climate projections, hydrological modeling, and ensemble techniques, and highlight their implications for understanding hydrological sustainability under future climate scenarios, providing a critical scientific foundation for developing adaptive, cross-border water management strategies, and for further studies on water resource resilience in transboundary basins. Full article