Search Results (5,201)

Urban economic development together with the concentration of population acts as a major stimulus for changes in land-use configurations, thereby reshaping local ecosystems and influencing habitat quality. Conducting a rigorous evaluation of the temporal–spatial dynamics and the mechanisms underlying these changes is crucial for refining spatial management strategies, improving urban livability, and steering cities toward sustainable pathways. In this research, we established a comprehensive analytical framework that integrates the PLUS model, the InVEST model, and the GeoDetector model to examine shifts in land-use patterns and habitat quality in Busan Metropolitan City during 1988–2019 to pinpoint the principal influencing factors and to project possible trajectories for 2029–2049 under multiple climate change scenarios. The key findings can be summarized as follows: (1) during the last thirty years, the city’s land-use structure underwent substantial transformation, with forested areas and built-up zones becoming the primary categories, indicating continuous urban encroachment and the reduction in ecological land; (2) the average habitat quality dropped by 18.23%, displaying a distinct spatial gradient from low values in plains and coastal areas to higher values in mountainous and inland zones; (3) results from the GeoDetector revealed that variations in land-use type and NDVI exerted the greatest influence on habitat quality differences, reflecting the combined impacts of environmental conditions and socio-economic pressures; (4) scenario projections show that the SSP1-2.6 pathway supports ecological land growth and leads to a notable improvement in habitat quality, while SSP5-8.5 causes ongoing deterioration driven by the expansion of construction land. The SSP2-4.5 pathway demonstrates a relatively moderate pattern, balancing urban development needs with ecological preservation and thus is more consistent with the long-term sustainability objectives of Busan. This study provides a robust scientific basis for understanding historical and projected changes in land cover and habitat quality in Busan and offers theoretical guidance for optimizing land-use structures, strengthening ecological protection, and fostering sustainable development in Busan and other coastal mountainous cities. Full article

Quantitative analysis of ecosystem services (ESs) supply–demand dynamics, and identifying its dominant drivers and the spatial non-stationarity of driving mechanisms, is a crucial prerequisite for effective regional ESs management and the formulation of scientific ecological conservation plans. Previous related studies have primarily focused on the supply–demand balance of specific ESs and the driving analysis of ESs supply. Comprehensive analysis of ESs supply–demand dynamics and research on their spatially heterogeneous response mechanisms remain relatively scarce. In this study, we assessed the supply, demand, and supply–demand matching relationships of ESs on the Loess Plateau (LP) from 1990 to 2023 using a land-cover-based ESs supply–demand quantitative matrix. We then employed Geodetector and Geographically weighted regression model to explore the dominant driving factors and their spatially varying effects on ESs supply–demand relationships. The results revealed that over the past three decades, the continuous decline in ESs supply coupled with the annual increase in ESs demand has led to a worsening trend in ESs supply–demand relationships towards deficit. Fortunately, the LP still maintained a supply-surplus state at present. The proportion of construction land, population density, GDP density, and the proportion of forestland and grassland were identified as key drivers of changes in ESs supply–demand relationships. The expansion of construction land was the most crucial driver of the deterioration in ESs supply–demand relationships on the LP, exhibiting a universally negative inhibitory effect. The proportion of forestland and grassland exerted a regionally wide positive spatial effect, highlighting the critical role of vegetation restoration in improving ESs relationships. The influences of population density and GDP density exhibited a coexistence of positive promoting and negative inhibitory effects across space. Our results emphasize that ESs management policies on the LP must account for the spatial heterogeneity of driving mechanisms, requiring more localized and targeted land use strategies and management policies to enhance ESs sustainability. Full article

Avocado orchards are among the most profitable and fastest-growing commodity crops in Mexico, especially in the area known as the “Avocado Belt”. Several efforts have been made to monitor their expansion; however, there is currently no method that can be easily updated to track this expansion. The main objective of this study was to monitor the expansion of avocado orchards from 1993 to 2024, using the Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) algorithm and Landsat 5, 7, 8, and 9 imagery. Presence/absence maps of avocado orchards corresponding to 1 January of each year were used to perform a trajectory analysis, identifying eight possible change trajectories. Finally, maps from 2020 to 2023 were verified using reference data and very-high-resolution images. The maps showed a level of agreement = 0.97, while the intersection over union for the avocado orchard class was 0.62. The main results indicate that the area occupied by avocado orchards more than tripled from 1993 to 2024, from 64,304.28 ha to 200,938.32 ha, with the highest expansion occurring between 2014 and 2024. The trajectory analysis confirmed that land conversion to avocado orchards is generally permanent and happens only once (i.e., gain without alternation). The method proved to be a robust approach for monitoring avocado orchard expansion and could be an attractive alternative for regularly updating this information. Full article

Rapid urbanization within ecologically fragile mountainous regions exacerbates tensions between development needs and land use sustainability, yet few studies have systematically quantified long-term land use/land cover (LULC) dynamics in large-scale mountainous urban agglomerations. Focusing on the Chengdu–Chongqing Urban Agglomeration (CCUA) in Southwest China—an archetypal mountainous megaregion undergoing accelerated development—this study analyzed LULC evolution from 1985 to 2019 using multi-period data, identified dominant driving factors through logistic regression, and projected future LULC patterns under various scenarios via the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model. The outcomes indicate that (1) over the past decades, construction land expanded by over 4000 km², an increase of about 318%, while cultivated land decreased by nearly 8600 km², a reduction of 6.86%; (2) the dominant transformation type was the conversion of cultivated land to forest, followed by its conversion to construction land; (3) elevation, slope, and average annual temperature emerged as significant predictors of LULC change, highlighting the critical influence of topographical and climatic conditions; and (4) natural development scenarios (NDS) and ecology and cultivated protection scenarios (ECPS) represent suitable development pathways. These findings contribute to evidence-based spatial governance and provide policy guidance for ecological protection in the CCUA and other similarly vulnerable areas. Full article

Heat-related morbidity and mortality are increasing due to climate change, emphasizing the need to identify vulnerable areas and people exposed to extreme temperatures. To improve heat stress impact assessment, we developed a replicable machine learning model that integrates remote sensing, ground station, and geospatial data to estimate daily air temperature at a spatial resolution of 100 m × 100 m across the region of Tuscany, Italy. Using a two-stage approach, we first imputed missing land surface temperature data from MODIS using gradient-boosted trees and spatio-temporal predictors. Then, we modeled daily maximum and minimum air temperatures by incorporating monitoring station observations, satellite-derived data (MODIS, Landsat 8), topography, land cover, meteorological variables (ERA5-land), and vegetation indices (NDVI). The model achieved high predictive accuracy, with R² values of 0.95 for Tmax and 0.92 for Tmin, and root mean square errors (RMSE) of 1.95 °C and 1.96 °C, respectively. It effectively captured both temporal (R²: 0.95; 0.94) and spatial (R²: 0.92; 0.72) temperature variations, allowing for the creation of high-resolution maps. These results highlight the potential of integrating Earth Observation and machine learning to generate high-resolution temperature maps, offering valuable insights for urban planning, climate adaptation, and epidemiological studies on heat-related health effects. Full article

Land use/land cover (LULC) data serve as a critical information source for understanding the complex interactions between human activities and global environmental change. The subtropical karst region, characterized by fragmented terrain, spectral confusion, topographic shadowing, and frequent cloud cover, represents one of the most challenging natural scenes for remote sensing classification. This study reviews the evolution of multi-source data acquisition (optical, SAR, LiDAR, UAV) and preprocessing strategies tailored for subtropical regions. It evaluates the applicability and limitations of various methodological frameworks, ranging from traditional approaches and GEOBIA to machine learning and deep learning. The importance of uncertainty modeling and robust accuracy assessment systems is emphasized. The study identifies four major bottlenecks: scarcity of high-quality samples, lack of scale awareness, poor model generalization, and insufficient integration of geoscientific knowledge. It suggests that future breakthroughs lie in developing remote sensing intelligent models that are driven by few samples, integrate multi-modal data, and possess strong geoscientific interpretability. The findings provide a theoretical reference for LULC information extraction and ecological monitoring in heterogeneous geomorphic regions. Full article

Coastal heritage assets are crucial to a society’s history and must be preserved sustainably, despite their vulnerability to both natural and anthropogenic hazards. Their monitoring is challenging due to the interrelated nature of these attributes. While expert observations and on-site measurements are employed, they cover limited areas over time, whereas remote sensing can assess larger regions more regularly. This study examines the impacts of climate change on Old Town North, a conservation area within Southampton Harbour, UK, designated as “heritage at risk” by Historic England in 2024. Particular focus is given to temperature and moisture variations, which may accelerate material decay and heighten risks. Using a multidisciplinary approach, the study uses satellite data to extract land surface temperatures, monitor coastal changes, and identify vulnerable risk zones. Results show that the conservation area faces multiple pressures, including moisture deficiency, urban sprawl, and increased surface temperatures, that together could hasten the deterioration of heritage assets. Full article

Key concepts such as “carbon footprint”, “carbon neutral”, “carbon neutrality”, “low carbon”, and “net-zero emissions” have gained prominence in the context of climate change, a current issue that has become an urgent global challenge caused by anthropogenic activities, including agriculture. This bibliometric review analyzed the use of these concepts in mitigation strategies for the coffee sector, since coffee production significantly contributes to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, primarily due to land use change, fertilizer use, and processing methods, and therefore, sustainable approaches within the whole coffee value chain need to be implemented. A total of 105 documents from the Scopus database, covering publications from January 1988 to June 2023, were analyzed. Co-word analysis and co-occurrence mapping techniques, together with traditional bibliometric laws and historical evolution analysis using VOSviewer and Bibliometrix, were applied. The evolution of research over time revealed that the first concept introduced for documenting the reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions was “low carbon emissions” in 1909, but it was not until 2008 that the first document was published establishing a link between “low carbon emissions” and “coffee”. In 2015, two more concepts, “carbon neutral” and “carbon neutrality”, documented since 1968 and 1995, respectively, were used in articles related to coffee. So far, the most relevant concept in quantifying GHG emissions in the context of coffee production activities has been “carbon footprint”. When it comes to new documents linking key concepts to coffee, between 2015 and 2018, there was an average of six documents per year. Since 2019, the average has remained at 15, highlighting the need to continue documenting climate change mitigation strategies in the coffee sector. Practical application of our findings for coffee sustainability programs must include the adoption of on-farm sustainable agricultural practices that span the entire value chain. In conclusion, this study underscores the importance of concepts such as “carbon footprint” and “carbon neutrality” as key pillars in the development of effective climate change mitigation strategies in the coffee sector and the significance of their integration into future research and global policies with practical applications, with far-reaching implications for sustainable agriculture in the near future. Full article

Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of croplands is crucial for guiding agricultural transformation, food security, and sustainable land use in Africa. This study employs 30 m resolution land cover data and multi-source datasets to examine the spatiotemporal changes in rainfed and irrigated cropland and their driving factors in Tanzania from 1990 to 2020 through multiple GIS spatial analysis methods. The results indicate a net increase in Tanzania’s total cropland area, primarily driven by the expansion of irrigated cropland that has offset the volatile decline of rainfed cropland. From 1990 to 2000, rainfed cropland showed intense bidirectional conversion with shrubland and forest; thereafter, the scale of this conversion continued to decrease. In contrast, irrigated cropland expansion exhibited phased fluctuations. Spatially, rainfed cropland dominates the central, lake, and western zones, while irrigated cropland is predominantly concentrated in the western and southern highland. Hotspots of rainfed cropland shifted from extensive expansion in the central and western zones during the 1990s to localized growth in mountainous areas by the 2010s. Concurrently, irrigated cropland hotspots evolved from a lakeside-concentrated pattern to contiguous development in the central and western zones. Both cropland types exhibit a northwest–southeast spatial orientation. The center of rainfed cropland shifted northwest before moving southeast, while that of irrigated cropland migrated southeastward and then stabilized. Rainfall is a key determinant of rainfed cropland distribution, whereas river network and road network density exert a growing influence on irrigated cropland. Full article

Climate change results from disruptions in Earth’s radiation energy balance. Radiative forcing is the dominant factor of climate change. Yet, most studies have focused on radiative effects within the calculated actual albedo, usually overlooking the angle effect of regions with large-scale and highly varied terrain. This study produced the actual albedo databases by using albedo retrieval look-up tables. And then we investigated the spatiotemporal variations in land surface albedo and its corresponding radiative effects in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2022 using MODIS-derived reflectance data. We employed time-series, trend, and anomaly detection analyses alongside surface downward shortwave radiation measurements to quantify the radiative forcing induced by land-cover changes. Our key findings reveal that (i) the basin’s average surface albedo was 0.171, with observed values ranging from 0.058 to 0.289; the highest variability was noted in the Loess Plateau during winter—primarily due to snowfall and low temperatures; (ii) a notable declining trend in the annual average albedo was observed in conjunction with rising temperatures, with annual values fluctuating between 0.165 and 0.184 and monthly averages spanning 0.1595 to 0.1853; (iii) land-cover transitions exerted distinct radiative forcing effects: conversions from grassland, shrubland, and wetland to water bodies produced forcings of 2.657, 2.280, and 2.007 W/m², respectively, while shifts between barren land and cropland generated forcings of 4.315 and 2.696 W/m². In contrast, transitions from cropland to shrubland and from grassland to shrubland resulted in minimal forcing, and changes from impervious surfaces and forested areas to other cover types yielded negative forcing, thereby exerting a net cooling effect. These findings not only deepen our understanding of the interplay between land-cover transitions and radiative forcing within the Yellow River Basin but also offer robust scientific support for regional climate adaptation, ecological planning, and sustainable land use management. Full article

The objective of this article is to analyze the impacts of climatic, physiographic, and land use/cover factors on the spatiotemporal variability of 7-day low-flow occurrence dates for 17 rivers during the period 1950–2023 in winter and summer in southern Quebec. Regarding spatial variability, correlation analysis revealed that these occurrence dates are primarily negatively correlated with agricultural surface area (early occurrence) during both seasons. In winter, they are also negatively correlated with total rainfall and daily mean maximum temperatures, but positively correlated with forest area and mean watershed slopes. Regarding temporal variability, the application of three Mann–Kendall tests showed that in summer, 7-day low flows tend to occur late in the season due to increased rainfall, particularly in the most agricultural watersheds. In contrast, in winter, very few significant changes were observed in the long-term trend of the analyzed hydrological series. Correlation analysis using redundancy analysis between eight climate indices and the occurrence dates of 7-day low flows showed that in summer, these dates are positively correlated with the global warming climate index, while they are not correlated with any climate index in winter. This study demonstrated that the spatiotemporal variability of the occurrence dates and magnitude of 7-day low flows are not influenced by the same factors in southern Quebec, except for the global warming climate index in summer. Finally, this study shows that the timing is much less sensitive to changes in climate change than the magnitude of low flows in southern Quebec. Full article

Urbanization has emerged as one of the most significant global challenges and opportunities of the 21st century, driven by a complex interplay of dynamic processes. In Ethiopia, cities have undergone rapid expansion in recent decades, largely due to state-led economic reforms and infrastructure development. This study aims to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics, driving forces, and future projections of urban expansion along the Ethio–Djibouti trade corridor, with a focus on Dire Dawa City in eastern Ethiopia. Landsat imagery from 1993, 2003, 2013, and 2023 was utilized to detect land use and land cover (LULC) changes and analyze urban growth patterns. Additionally, maps illustrating the city’s demographic, economic, and topographic characteristics were developed to identify the key driving factors behind land conversion and urban expansion. The spatial matrix and landscape expansion index were employed to examine the spatial patterns of urban growth. Furthermore, the study applied the Multi-Layer Perceptron–Markov Chain (MLP–MC) model to simulate future LULC changes and urban expansion. The results indicate that the built-up area in Dire Dawa has increased significantly over the past three decades, growing from 6.21 km² in 1993 to 21.54 km² in 2023. This urban growth is predominantly characterized by edge expansion, reflecting a pattern of unidirectional, unsustainable development that has consumed large areas of agricultural land. The analysis shows that socioeconomic development and population growth have had a greater influence on LULC conversion and urban expansion than physical factors. Based on these identified drivers, the study projected land conversion and simulated urban expansion for the years 2043 and 2064. The findings underscore the urgent need for context-sensitive urban growth strategies that harmonize local realities with national development policies and the Sustainable Development Goals. Full article

Agricultural land consolidation (ALC) is a critical instrument for protecting the environment and expanding cropland. However, implementing different consolidation methods, scales, and technologies may have adverse effects on ecological and environmental factors. The ecological effects of ALC are evaluated in this investigation, with the Manas River Basin in China as the research object. Initially, the research examined the changes in land use that occurred during various periods of ALC in the basin using land cover data (CLCD). Secondly, an enhanced water benefit-based ecological index (SWBEI) for arid regions was developed using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. The spatiotemporal variations in ecological environment quality (EEQ) during various ALC periods were analysed. Ultimately, the effects of a variety of factors on EEQ were disclosed. The research results show that: (1) The principal land-use types in the Manas River Basin are barren land, grassland, and cropland, with substantial fluctuations in area. Cropland area is increasing, with the majority being converted from grassland and desolate land. During the initial phase of farmland consolidation, the most rapid growth was observed, with expansion occurring both inward and outward from existing cropland. (2) The SWBEI outperforms the water benefit-based ecological index (WBEI) in arid regions. (3) The EEQ of the basin and cropland typically exhibits an “increasing–decreasing–increasing trend”, with deterioration predominantly occurring during early-stage ALC and a gradual improvement in EEQ during late-stage ALC. The Gobi Desert belt at the foothills of mountains and high-altitude frigid regions exhibit a deteriorating trend in the EEQ, whereas the oasis areas in the middle reaches of the basin exhibit an improving trend. (4) The most significant explanatory power for the basin’s EEQ is attributed to climate factors, followed by topographic factors, hydrological factors, and human factors. The influence of human factors and hydrological factors on the basin’s EEQ is increasing. The primary factors that influence the EEQ of a basin are the actual evapotranspiration, temperature, and elevation. The explanatory power of these two factors for the basin’s EEQ is augmented by their interaction. In the long term, ALC helps improve the EEQ of the basin and cropland. This study provides a reference for improving ALC methods and approaches, enhancing the ecological environment of river basins, and balancing agricultural production efficiency. Full article

As a region with functions such as energy production and as an ecological barrier, the Loess Plateau plays a vital role in China. This study examines the spatiotemporal changes in water storage and vegetation cover and their correlations. The changes in water storage were calculated using GRACE data and the GLDAS-NOAH model, while vegetation changes were derived from MODIS data. The results showed that the groundwater inventory decreased by 7.80 mm/a and the land inventory decreased by 9.72 mm/a. Surface water storage capacity increased by 1.92 mm/a. From west to east, terrestrial and groundwater storage decrease, reflecting overall losses, but surface water storage remains positive. By analyzing the FVC, it can be observed that since 2006, vegetation coverage has shown an overall increasing trend, with the highest value occurring in 2018. There has been a remarkably increase in vegetation coverage in most areas, while there was a decrease in vegetation coverage along the borders of Qinghai Province and northern Shaanxi Province. By conducting a correlation analysis, it can be found that the correlation coefficients between terrestrial water storage, surface water storage, and groundwater storage changes and vegetation coverage are −0.85, 0.60, and −0.93, respectively, indicating that increased vegetation coverage leads to reduced groundwater and terrestrial water storage. The results also indicate that there are significant spatial differences in the monthly correlations and maximum lag months between water storage and vegetation coverage. In addition, through discussing the driving factors of water storage changes in the Loess Plateau, we consider that the Grain for Green Project and mining activities may be the two major drivers of these changes. This study is highly important and valuable to the study of changes in water reserves in the Loess Plateau, as well as ecological protection and environmental assessment in the Loess Plateau. Full article

Land use/cover (LUCC) change in arid oasis–desert ecotones has significant implications for spatial governance in ecologically fragile regions. To better capture the temporal and spatial complexity of land transitions, this study developed a vector tracing method by integrating time-series remote sensing data with vector-based transfer pathways. Analysis of northern Oman from 1995 to 2020 revealed the following: (1) Arable land and impervious surfaces expanded from 0.51% to 1.09% and from 0.31% to 0.98%, respectively, while sand declined from 99.03% to 97.01%. Spatially, arable land was concentrated in piedmont irrigation zones, impervious surfaces near coastal cities, and shrubland and grassland along the Al-Hajar Mountains, forming a complementary land use mosaic. (2) Human activities were the dominant driver, with typical one-way chains accounting for 69.76% of total change. Sand was mainly transformed into arable land (7_C1, 7_D1, 7_E1; where the first part denotes the original type, the letter denotes the year of change, and the last digit denotes the new type), impervious surfaces (7_C6, 7_D6, 7_E6), and shrubland (7_E4). (3) Water scarcity and an arid climate remained primary constraints, manifested in typical reciprocating chains in the oasis–desert interface (7_D1_E7, 7_A1_B7, 7_C1_D7) and in the arid vegetation zone along the Al-Hajar Mountain foothills (7_D3_E7, 7_C3_D7), together accounting for 24.50% of total change. (4) The region exhibited coordinated transitions among oasis, urban, and ecological land, avoiding the common conflict of cropland loss to urbanization. During the study period, transitions among arable land, impervious surfaces, forest, shrubland, and wetland were rare (Type 16: 3.31%, Type 82: 2.89%, Type 12: 0.04%, Type 18: 0.01%). The case of northern Oman provides a valuable reference for collaborative spatial governance in ecologically fragile arid zones. Future research should integrate socio-economic drivers, climate change projections, and higher-temporal-resolution data to enhance the applicability of the chain-spectrum method in other arid regions. Full article