Search Results (33)

The aim of this study is to quantitatively analyze the long-term climate variability in Poland during the period 1901–2010, using Shannon entropy as a measure of uncertainty and complexity within the atmospheric system. The analysis is based on the premise that variations in temperature and precipitation reflect the dynamic nature of the climate, understood as a nonlinear system sensitive to fluctuations. This study focuses on monthly distributions of temperature and precipitation, modeled using the bivariate Clayton copula function. A normal marginal distribution was adopted for temperature and a gamma distribution for precipitation, both validated using the Anderson–Darling test. To improve estimation accuracy, a bootstrap resampling technique and numerical integration were applied to calculate Shannon entropy at each of the 396 grid points, with a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25°. The results indicate a significant increase in Shannon entropy during the summer months, particularly in July (+0.203 bits) and January (+0.221 bits), compared to the baseline period (1901–1971), suggesting a growing unpredictability of the climate. The most pronounced trend changes were identified in the years 1985–1996 (as indicated by the Pettitt test), while seasonal trends were confirmed using the Mann–Kendall test. A spatial analysis of entropy at the levels of administrative regions and catchments revealed notable regional disparities—entropy peaked in January in the West Pomeranian Voivodeship (4.919 bits) and reached its minimum in April in Greater Poland (3.753 bits). Additionally, this study examined the relationship between Shannon entropy and global climatic indicators, including the Land–Ocean Temperature Index (NASA GISTEMP) and the ENSO index (NINO3.4). Statistically significant positive correlations were observed between entropy and global temperature anomalies during both winter ($\rho$ = 0.826) and summer ($\rho$ = 0.650), indicating potential linkages between local climate variability and global warming trends. To explore the direction of this relationship, a Granger causality test was conducted, which did not reveal statistically significant causality between NINO3.4 and Shannon entropy ($p$ > 0.05 for all lags tested), suggesting that the observed relationships are likely co-varying rather than causal in the Granger sense. Further phase–space analysis (with a delay of $\tau$ = 3 months) allowed for the identification of attractors characteristic of chaotic systems. The entropy trajectories revealed transitions from equilibrium states (average entropy: 4.124–4.138 bits) to highly unstable states (up to 4.768 bits), confirming an increase in the complexity of the climate system. Shannon entropy thus proves to be a valuable tool for monitoring local climatic instability and may contribute to improved risk modeling of droughts and floods in the context of climate change in Poland. Full article

This paper provides climate feedback trends, quantifies the feedback-doubling (FD) period, considers urbanization influences, and provides related equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) estimates using data from 1880 to 2024. Data modeling is accomplished by focusing on statistically significant stable normalized correlated rates (NCRs, i.e., normalized related slopes). Estimates indicate that the global warming NCR is increasing by a factor of 1.65 to 2.33 times faster than the energy consumption NCR, from 1975 to 2024. The reason is feedback amplification. This is supported by the fact that the NCR for forcing and energy consumption shows approximate equivalency in the period studied. Results provide feedback yearly trend estimates at the 95% confidence level that key results will fall within the IPCC AR6 likely range. The projected 2017–2024 feedback amplification estimates, using the EC approach, range from 2.0 to 2.16, respectively. A feedback amplification of 2.0 (approximately equal to −2.74 Wm⁻² K⁻¹) doubles the forcing, indicating that in 2024, more than half of global warming (53.7%) is likely due to feedback. Relative to the feedback-doubling (FD) threshold (i.e., the point where feedback exceeds forcing), the FD overage is 3.7% in 2024. This is the amount of feedback exceeding the FD threshold found to have a surprisingly aggressive 3.1% to 3.9% estimated overage growth rate per decade. We now ask, shouldn’t we try to mitigate feedback as well as GHG forcing, and if forcing could be removed, how would global warming fully “self-mitigate”? Additionally, CO₂ yearly increases are complex, with poor reduction progress. Therefore, this study’s risk assessment urgently recommends supplementary “mild” annual solar geoengineering as a minimum requirement, to reduce the dominant aggressive feedback. SG reduces the primary solar warming source creating 62% higher mitigation efficiency than CDR. Urgency is enhanced since solar geoengineering must be timely and can take years to develop. This study also estimates that 75% to 90.5% (83% average) of the feedback problem is due to water vapor feedback (WVF). High WVF also plagues many cities needing local SG. Trend analysis indicates that by 2047, the earliest we may reach 10 billion people, feedback amplification could reach a value of 2.4 to 2.8. Furthermore, by 2082, the year estimated for 2× CO₂, at the current rate, feedback amplification could range from 2.88 to 3.71. This yields an ECS range from 2.4 °C to 3.07 °C, in reasonable agreement with the reported estimated range in AR6. An overview of recent urbanization forcing attribution indicates the ECS value may be lower by 10.7% if this forcing is considered. For numerous reasons, the lack of albedo urbanization Earth brightening requirements in the Paris Agreement, is unsettling and urgently needed. In addition, a model assesses effective forced feedback (EFF) temperature characteristics of up to 1.9 °C, providing interesting feedback insights that may relate to high GW land and pipeline temperature estimates. Lastly in addition to urbanization, solar geoengineering in the Arctic and Antarctic is advised. Worldwide efforts in GHG mitigation, with no significant work in SG, appears highly misdirected. Full article

Background: The dietary intake of hospitalised patients is often compromised during hospitalisation, which can be a causal factor for hospital malnutrition. This is considered a public health problem worldwide and is associated with an increased risk of other complications. Objectives: Our objective was to determine the dietary intake of hospitalised individuals and if the prescribed diet influences it. Methods: Food intake data were collected from 299 lunches of patients admitted to a hospital, using the visual estimation method with a five-point scale. Three existing diets were considered, and the energy and macronutrient values of the meal were calculated. The minimum energy and protein requirements were also calculated. Results: The components of the tray with the highest intake were soup and dessert; no significant differences were found between the percentage intake of each element and the prescribed diet. More than 50% of the individuals did not meet their minimum energy requirements, and only 36.5% had a protein intake that was within the recommendations. Conclusions: Dietary intake is much lower than prescribed, and nutritionists need to act to reduce the prevalence of hospital malnutrition. Full article

Urban non-point source (NPS) pollution is an important risk factor that leads to the deterioration of urban water quality, affects human health, and destroys the ecological balance of the water environment. Reasonable risk prevention and control of urban NPS pollution are conducive to reducing the cost of pollution management. Therefore, based on the theory of “source–sink” in landscape ecology, combined with the minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model, this study considered the influence of geographic-environment factors in Shenyang’s built-up area on pollutants in the process of entering the water body under the action of surface runoff, and evaluated its risk. The results indicated that the highest pollution loads are generated by road surfaces. High-density residential zones and industrial zones are the main sources of urban NPS pollution. Impervious surface ratios and patch density were the dominant environmental factors affecting pollutant transport, with contributions of 56% and 40%, respectively. The minimum cumulative resistance to urban NPS pollution transport is significantly and positively correlated with the distance from water bodies and roads. Higher risk areas are mainly concentrated in the center of built-up areas and roads near the Hun River. Green spaces, business zones, public service zones, development zones, and educational zones demonstrate the highest average risk index values, exceeding 29. In contrast, preservation zones showed the lowest risk index (7.3). Compared with the traditional risk index method, the method proposed in this study could accurately estimate the risk of urban NPS pollution and provide a new reference for risk assessments of urban NPS pollution. Full article

Background: Faecal immunochemical testing (FIT) is widely used in bowel screening programmes and assessing symptomatic patients for suspected colorectal cancer (CRC). The evidence for single test performance of FIT in both settings is considerable; however, the use of a repeat test to increase sensitivity remains uncertain. We aimed to review what increase in test positivity would be generated by additional FITs, whether a repeated FIT detects previously missed CRC and advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACRN), and to estimate the sensitivity of double-FIT strategies to diagnose CRC and ACRN. Methods: A systematic search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) was performed using key search terms. Studies reporting the use of more than one FIT in the same screening round or planned assessment of a single symptomatic patient episode were included. Studies were categorised by the reported study population into asymptomatic, mixed (cohorts of combined asymptomatic, symptomatic, or high-risk surveillance), or symptomatic cohorts. Results: A total of 68 studies were included for analysis (39 asymptomatic, 21 mixed, 7 symptomatic, and 1 study with discrete asymptomatic and symptomatic data). At a threshold of 10 µg Hb/g, the two-test positivity ranged between 8.1 and 34.5%, with an increase from the second test of 3–9.2 percentage points. Four out of five studies comparing one versus two tests for diagnosing CRC at 10 µg Hb/g identified additional cases with the second test, with a minimum of 50% reduction in missed CRC. At a threshold of 20 µg Hb/g, the second test increased the positivity by 1.3–6.7 percentage points, with a two-test positivity of between 5.1 and 25.0%. Using a threshold of 20 µg Hb/g, five out of seven studies had a 25% reduction in missed CRC. A meta-analysis estimated the double-FIT sensitivity at 10 µg Hb/g for CRC in mixed-risk and symptomatic cohorts to be 94% and 98%, respectively. Conclusions: Repeated use of FIT helps to diagnose more cases of CRC with a moderate increase in positivity. A double-FIT strategy at 10 µg Hb/g in mixed and symptomatic cohorts has a very high sensitivity for CRC. Full article

Objectives: Arterial hypertension (AH) is one of the major risk factors for cardiovascular diseases. An association between untreated AH and arrhythmia is observed. Cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) assesses myocardial fibrosis by detecting foci of late gadolinium enhancement (LGE). Clinical significance of LGE at the right ventricular insertion point (RVIP) is not fully established. This study aimed to assess the relationship between the presence of LGE at the RVIP determined by CMR and the incidence of arrhythmia in a group suffering from arterial hypertension. Methods: The study group consisted of 81 patients with AH (37 men and 44 women, age: 56.7 ± 7.1 years). All subjects underwent CMR and 24 h Holter ECG monitoring. Two subgroups were distinguished in the study group based on the criterion of the presence of LGE at the RVIP in CMR. The RVIP+ subgroup consisted of patients with LGE at the RVIP, while the RVIP− group consisted of patients without LGE at the RVIP. Results: The RVIP+ subgroup was characterized by higher maximum and minimum heart rates in 24 h Holter ECG recordings compared to the RVIP− subgroup (p < 0.05). The RVIP+ subgroup had a statistically significantly higher number of single premature supraventricular beats, supraventricular tachycardias, and single premature ventricular beats than the RVIP− subgroup (p < 0.05). Regression analysis documented that a longer duration of AH (counted from diagnosis) as well as the occurrence of LGE at the RVIP (assessed by CMR) are independent risk factors for arrhythmia (p < 0.05). Conclusions: Due to the possibility of detecting LGE at the RVIP, CMR may be a useful diagnostic method in estimating the risk of arrhythmias in the group of patients with AH. Full article

Currently, divers face significant safety risks when cleaning marine organisms from the steel structures of offshore underwater platform jackets. Consequently, utilizing robots instead of divers to carry out underwater biofouling removal operations will be an important development direction for the underwater maintenance of offshore platforms in the future. In this study, a wall-climbing robot was designed to clean marine organisms from the underwater surface of a platform jacket leg. The overall structure of the underwater cleaning wall-climbing robot is introduced, including the cleaning actuator and the variable curvature-adapted connecting rod mechanism. The corresponding relationship between the variable curvature-adapted connecting rod mechanism and the jacket leg is analyzed in detail. The variable curvature-adapted connecting rod mechanism was optimized using a genetic algorithm to ensure that the underwater cleaning wall-climbing robot can adapt to a minimum diameter of 1 m for the jacket leg. By drawing on Airy wave theory and random wave theory, the Airy wave parameters for waves were analyzed under different sea conditions, considering practical application scenarios. By using Fluent software 2022, a 2D numerical wave tank was constructed to simulate waves under various sea conditions, and the wave surface shapes for different sea states were determined. By building on the Morison equation, a method for calculating the horizontal wave forces on the underwater cleaning wall-climbing robot using the equivalent area and equivalent volume is proposed. By using the two aforementioned methods, the horizontal wave forces on the underwater cleaning wall-climbing robot under specific sea states were determined. The horizontal wave forces of the underwater cleaning wall-climbing robot under different sea conditions were analyzed and simulated in a 3D numerical wave tank. By comparing the theoretical analysis results with the numerical simulation results, where the maximum difference at the extreme points is approximately 11%, the feasibility of the proposed horizontal wave force estimation method was verified. Full article

Increases in the human population and economic development have led to a rise in waste production, which poses significant environmental risks and presents a pressing global issue in waste management. Among other countries, this situation affects the United Arab Emirates (UAE). On the other hand, poor waste segregation practices can result in failed waste recycling efforts, leading to the excessive use of resources and worsening issues (such as energy consumption, global warming, and sustainable development). Waste segregation is a crucial step in waste management, which involves dividing waste according to its characteristics and type. By following this procedure, recycling effectiveness is increased, the environmental impact is decreased, and hazardous material disposal is ensured. Beneficial waste segregation reduces contamination, making it possible to recover valuable materials and thus use fewer landfills. Even though the failings in waste segregation are a severe issue, insufficient research has been carried out. This includes research on the knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) of people living in the UAE regarding waste segregation, information which is crucial to developing a successful intervention to address this problem. The current study evaluated the KAP concerning waste segregation among UAE citizens and identified correlations between KAP variables, with the primary aim of filling a research gap, while analyzing the correlations between sociodemographic characteristics and KAP levels, which was the secondary aim. This was accomplished by a cross-sectional study conducted all over the UAE. Data were collected from 391 participants using a five-point Likert scale questionnaire that was developed from previous research and investigated sociodemographic characteristics, waste segregation practices (5), attitudes (5), and knowledge (5). UAE University’s ethical committees approved this study (ERSC_2024_4360) for research, and the results were confirmed through statistical analyses and Cronbach’s alpha testing. The inclusion criteria targeted residents of the UAE who were 18 years of age or above, and the survey was distributed via an online platform (Google Forms) with non-probability sampling. G*Power statistical power analysis estimated a minimum sample size of 385 participants. To identify correlations in the results, a structural equation model (SEM) and SPSS, such as Chi-square tests and Spearman correlation coefficients, were used to assess the associations between KAP variables. These tests were chosen for their robustness in handling categorical and continuous data, respectively. A notable majority (84.1%) of the participants were female, and 15.9% were male; the gender difference was highly significant, as revealed by the Chi-square test. Most participants (67.0%) fell into the 18–24 age group. The highest level of education reported was a bachelor’s degree (47.3%). The parents’ educational levels showed a relatively high level of education, with more than half having at least a high school degree or higher: father’s education level (67.2%) and mother’s education level (73.1%). Most participants were students (58.8%), but a significant portion of the sample was employed (25.1%). Unemployment was reported at 12.3%. The parents’ employment statuses showed a higher percentage of unemployed mothers (49.4%) compared to fathers (6.9%). The average scores suggested a favorable inclination toward sustainability (mean ± standard deviation (SD) for knowledge, 3.59 ± 0.78; poor knowledge, 3.6%; and excellent knowledge, 16.9%), attitudes (3.73 ± 0.77; poor attitudes, 2.8%; and excellent attitudes, 22.5%), and practices (3.62 ± 0.76; poor practices, 2.3%; and excellent practices, 16.4%), with all the means surpassing the midpoint. In the correlation test, the current study demonstrated positive correlations between knowledge and attitudes (r = 0.666, p < 0.001) and between knowledge and practices (r = 0.682, p < 0.001). Also, a positive correlation (r = 0.159, p < 0.001) was found between general waste segregation KAP and sociodemographic variables, with a significant correlation (r = 0.110) between attitudes and gender. These findings emphasize the possibility of using focused educational and policy interventions to improve waste segregation behaviors. An additional investigation is advised to delve into the fundamental mechanisms behind these correlations and devise customized approaches to encourage sustainable waste management practices among various demographic groups in the UAE. Full article

This paper proposes a new approach to estimating the minimum variance hedge ratio (MVHR) based on the wild bootstrap and evaluates the approach using a spectrum of conservative to aggressive alternative hedging strategies associated with the percentiles of the MVHR’s bootstrap distribution. This approach is suggested to be more informative and effective relative to the conventional method of hedging solely based on a single-point estimate. Furthermore, the percentile-based MVHRs are robust to influential outliers, non-normality, and unknown forms of heteroskedasticity. The bootstrap percentile-based hedging strategies’ effectiveness is compared with those from the naïve method and the asymmetric DCC-GARCH model for a range of financial assets and commodities. The bootstrap percentile-based hedging technique is identified to outperform its alternatives in terms of hedging effectiveness, downside risk, and return variability, suggesting its superiority to other methods in both the literature and in practice. Full article

Inland capture fisheries play a critical role in supporting food security and livelihoods in Africa. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the genetic health of exploited fish populations. The African bonytongue, Heterotis niloticus, supports important commercial and subsistence fisheries in western Africa. However, sharp declines in stocks have been reported. Herein, we estimate contemporary effective population sizes (Ne) of four Heterotis populations in Nigeria, three in Benin, and five in Cameroon using Linkage Disequilibrium methods. Ne estimates were used to assess genetic short-term (i.e., inbreeding depression) and long-term (i.e., loss of evolutionary potential) risks. Ne point estimates obtained with the best estimator (out of 16), as determined by computer simulations, were <50 (range = 5.1–36.2) for nine of the twelve populations examined, which is below the minimum recommended for avoiding the potential deleterious effects of inbreeding depression (original criterion Ne ≥ 50, revised to Ne ≥ 100); and well below the minimum recommended for populations to retain evolutionary potential (original criterion Ne ≥ 500; revised to Ne ≥ 1000). The lower bound of the confidence interval for two of the remaining populations was below the minimum recommended to retain evolutionary potential (with the point estimate of one of them also below this threshold), and for some methods, values were lower than the minimum recommended to avoid inbreeding depression. Accordingly, our results suggest that urgent conservation and management plans are needed to guarantee the persistence and sustainability of the H. niloticus populations examined. Full article

Invasive listeriosis, due to its severe nature in susceptible populations, has been the focus of many quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models aiming to provide a valuable guide in future risk management efforts. A review of the published QRA models of Listeria monocytogenes in seafood was performed, with the objective of appraising the effectiveness of the control strategies at different points along the food chain. It is worth noting, however, that the outcomes of a QRA model are context-specific, and influenced by the country and target population, the assumptions that are employed, and the model architecture itself. Studies containing QRA models were retrieved through a literature search using properly connected keywords on Scopus and PubMed^®. All 13 QRA models that were recovered were of short scope, covering, at most, the period from the end of processing to consumption; the majority (85%) focused on smoked or gravad fish. Since the modelled pathways commenced with the packaged product, none of the QRA models addressed cross-contamination events. Many models agreed that keeping the product’s temperature at 4.0–4.5 °C leads to greater reductions in the final risk of listeriosis than reducing the shelf life by one week and that the effectiveness of both measures can be surpassed by reducing the initial occurrence of L. monocytogenes in the product (at the end of processing). It is, therefore, necessary that future QRA models for RTE seafood contain a processing module that can provide insight into intervention strategies that can retard L. monocytogenes’ growth, such as the use of bacteriocins, ad hoc starter cultures and/or organic acids, and other strategies seeking to reduce cross-contamination at the facilities, such as stringent controls for sanitation procedures. Since risk estimates were shown to be moderately driven by growth kinetic parameters, namely, the exponential growth rate, the minimum temperature for growth, and the maximum population density, further work is needed to reduce uncertainties. Full article

We aimed to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of Screening Corneal Objective Risk of Ectasia (SCORE) Analyzer software using ANTERION, a swept-source optical coherence tomography device, for keratoconus diagnosis in an Asian population. A total of 151 eyes of 151 patients were included in this retrospective study as follows: 60, 45, and 46 keratoconus, keratoconus suspects, and normal control eyes, respectively. Parameters in the SCORE calculation, including six indices, were compared for the three groups. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and cut-off value were estimated to assess the diagnostic ability to differentiate keratoconus and keratoconus suspect eyes from the normal group. The SCORE value and six indices were significantly correlated—“AntK max” (R = 0.864), “AntK oppoK” (R = 0.866), “Ant inf supK” (R = 0.943), “Ant irre 3mm” (R = 0.741), “post elevation at the thinnest point” (R = 0.943), and “minimum corneal thickness” (R = −0.750). The SCORE value showed high explanatory power (98.1%), sensitivity of 81.9%, and specificity of 78.3% (cut-off value: 0.25) in diagnosing normal eyes from the keratoconus suspect and keratoconus eyes. The SCORE Analyzer was found to be valid and consistent, showing good sensitivity and specificity for keratoconus detection in an Asian population. Full article

Agricultural non-point source pollution (ANPSP) is a primary cause of watershed water quality deterioration, and over 50% of NPS pollutants are estimated to come from ANPSP. Based on the “source-sink” theory and minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model, ANPSP source and key resistance factors were integrated to identify areas at risk of ANPSP production and transportation into the waters of the upper Yangtze River basin. The results showed a spatial difference in the agricultural pollution sources of the basin, which were determined using both ANPSP loads and land-use types. Soil type, rainfall erosivity, and elevation were the three most important resistance factors in pollution transportation, weighting 0.373, 0.241, and 0.147, respectively. There was a spatial effect on the comprehensive resistance of ANPSP transportation, which was lower in mountainous terrain at the central basin. On the coupling of source and resistance processes, regions at serious risk of ANPSP were found to be concentrated in the southwest area. Areas at very high risk of NH₃-N and TP pollution accounted for 37.6% and 38.1%, respectively, in the total town/street area. The spatial risk patterns identified in this study could be used for decision making and policy regulation of ANPSP and for aquatic environmental protection. Full article

Earthquakes are a severe natural phenomenon that require continuous monitoring, analysis, and forecasting to mitigate their risks. Seismological data have long been used for this purpose, but geodynamic data from remote sensing of surface displacements have become available in recent decades. In this paper, we present a novel information technology for monitoring, analyzing seismogenic fields, and predicting earthquakes using Earth remote sensing data presented as a time series of surface displacement points for systematic regional earthquake prediction. We demonstrate, for the first time, the successful application of this technology and discuss the method of the minimum area of alarm, which was developed for machine learning and systematic earthquake prediction, as well as the architecture and tools of the GIS platform. Our technology is implemented as a network platform consisting of two GISs. The first GIS automatically loads earthquake catalog data and GPS time series, calculates spatiotemporal fields, performs systematic earthquake prediction in multiple seismically active regions, and provides intuitive mapping tools to analyze seismic processes. The second GIS is designed for scientific research of spatiotemporal processes, including those related to earthquake forecasting. We demonstrate the effectiveness of platform analysis tools that are intuitive and accessible to a wide range of users in solving problems of systematic earthquake prediction. Additionally, we provide examples of scientific research on earthquake prediction using the second GIS, including the effectiveness of using GPS data for forecasting earthquakes in California, estimating the density fields of earthquake epicenters using the adaptive weighted smoothing (AWS) method for predicting earthquakes in Kamchatka, and studying earthquake forecasts in the island part of the territory of Japan using the earthquake catalog and GPS. Our examples demonstrate that the method of the minimum area of alarm used for machine learning is effective for forecasting both catalog and remote sensing data. Full article

The ranked set sampling (RSS) is an efficient and flexible sampling method. Based on a modified RSS named minimum ranked set sampling samples (MinRSSU), inference of a dependent competing risks model is proposed in this paper. Then, Marshall–Olkin bivariate distribution model is used to describe the dependence of competing risks. When the competing risks data follow the proportional hazard rate distribution, a dependent competing risks model based on MinRSSU sampling is constructed. In addition, the model parameters and reliability indices were estimated by the classical and Bayesian method. Maximum likelihood estimators and corresponding asymptotic confidence intervals are constructed by using asymptotic theory. In addition, the Bayesian estimator and highest posterior density credible intervals are established under the general prior. Furthermore, according to E-Bayesian theory, the point and interval estimators of model parameters and reliability indices are obtained by a sampling algorithm. Finally, extensive simulation studies and a real-life example are presented for illustrations. Full article