Search Results (182)

Extreme rainfall events are frequently associated with regions of complex topography, where terrain-induced convergence and uplift enhance storm development. Understanding the interaction between surface relief and atmospheric dynamics is essential for improving severe weather forecasting and hazard mitigation. Storm “Daniel”, which affected Greece from 4–7 September 2023, produced extreme rainfall and widespread flooding in the Thessaly region—a landscape characterized by significant elevation gradients. This study investigates the spatial relationship between lightning activity and terrain elevation, aiming to assess whether deep convection was preferentially triggered over mountainous regions or followed specific orographic patterns. High-resolution elevation data (SRTM 1 Arc-Second Global DEM) were used to calculate the mean elevation around each lightning strike across four spatial scales (2 km, 5 km, 10 km, and 20 km). Statistical analysis, including correlation coefficients and third-degree polynomial regression, revealed a non-linear relationship, with a distinct peak in lightning frequency at mid-elevations (~200–400 m). These findings suggest that topographic features at local scales can significantly modulate convective initiation, likely due to a combination of mechanical uplift and favorable thermodynamic conditions. The study integrates geospatial techniques and statistical modeling to provide quantitative insights into how terrain influences the formation, location, and intensity of thunderstorms during high-impact weather events. Full article

On 31 March 2025, a severe thunderstorm system affected the Cyclades region, causing extensive flash floods on the islands of Paros and Mykonos and leading to significant material damage. This study investigates the meteorological characteristics of the event and focuses on the potential role of elevated sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in intensifying the storm’s severity. The analysis is centered on the broader Aegean region (geographic extent: 41.25° N, 21.83° E to 34.30° N, 28.51° E), utilizing ERA5 reanalysis data from ECMWF. These data provide high-resolution information on the atmospheric and ocean surface conditions during the event. The primary research objective is to explore how warmer SSTs may have contributed to enhanced moisture in the lower troposphere and increased energy availability for convective storm development. The theoretical background and a preliminary data exploration suggest that elevated SSTs likely favored increased evaporation, enhanced low-level moisture transport, and greater atmospheric instability, leading to the development of deep convective clouds. This, in turn, may have intensified precipitation rates and elevated the flood risk. This study aims to contribute to a better understanding of the mechanisms behind such extreme weather events, particularly in island environments, and to explore the sea’s potential catalytic role under a changing climate. Full article

Despite significant progress, precipitation forecasting in West Africa remains challenging due to the complexity of atmospheric processes and the region’s climatic variability. This study aims to identify optimal configurations of the WRF model to improve precipitation forecasting. To evaluate the sensitivity of the model’s physical parameterizations, 15 configurations were tested by combining various cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) and planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes. The analysis examines two contrasting rainfall events in Senegal: one characterized by widespread intense precipitation and another featuring localized moderate rainfall. Simulated rainfall, temperature, and humidity were validated against rain gauges, satellite products (ENACTS, ARC2, CHIRPS, and IMERG), and ERA5 reanalysis data. The results show that the WRF configurations achieve correlation coefficients (r) ranging from 0.27 to 0.62 against ENACTS and from 0.15 to 0.41 against rain gauges. The sensitivity analysis reveals that PBL schemes primarily influence temperature and humidity, while CPSs significantly affect precipitation. For the heavy rainfall event, several configurations accurately captured the observed patterns, particularly those using Tiedtke or Grell–Devenyi CPSs coupled with the Mellor–Yamada–Janjic (MYJ) PBL. However, the model showed limited skill in simulating localized convection during the moderate rainfall event. These findings highlight the importance of selecting appropriate parameterizations to enhance WRF-based precipitation forecasting, especially for extreme weather events in West Africa. Full article

Intense thunderstorms known as Nor’westers develop in the Eastern and North Eastern parts of India and Bangladesh before the monsoon season (March to May). The associated severe weather can cause extensive damage to property and livestock. This study uses the pre-monsoon volumetric data of S-band radar from 2013 to 2018 located in Kolkata to investigate the diurnal variation in the characteristics of the storms over Gangetic West Bengal. The cell initiation, echo top heights, maximum reflectivity, and core convective area are determined by using a flexible feature tracking algorithm (PyFLEXTRKR). The variation of the parameters in diurnal scale is examined from 211,503 individual cell tracks. The distribution of the severe weather phenomena based on radar based thresholds in spatial and temporal scale is also determined. The results show that new cell initiation peaks in the late evening and early morning, displaying bimodal variability. Most of these cells have a short lifespan of 0 to 3 h, with fewer than 5 percent of storms lasting beyond 3 h. The occurrence of hail is much greater in the afternoon due to intense surface heating than at other times. In contrast, the occurrence of lightning is higher in the late evening hours when the cell initiation reaches its peak. The convective rains are generally accompanied by lightning, exhibiting a similar diurnal temporal variability but are more widespread. The findings will assist operational weather forecasters in identifying locations that need targeted observation at certain times of the day to enhance the accuracy of severe weather nowcasting. Full article

High-resolution numerical weather prediction requires accurate cloud microphysical initial conditions to enhance forecasting capabilities for high-impact severe weather events such as convective storms. This study integrated Fengyun-2 (FY-2) geostationary satellite data (equivalent blackbody temperature and total cloud cover) and next-generation 3D weather radar reflectivity from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) to construct cloud microphysical initial fields and evaluate their impact on the CMA-MESO 3 km regional model. An analysis of the catastrophic rainfall event in Henan on 20 July 2021, and a 92-day continuous experiment (May–July 2024) revealed that assimilating cloud microphysical variables significantly improved precipitation forecasting: the equitable threat scores (ETSs) for 1 h forecasts of light, moderate, and heavy rain increased from 0.083, 0.043, and 0.007 to 0.41, 0.36, and 0.217, respectively, with average hourly ETS improvements of 21–71% for 2–6 h forecasts and increases in ETSs for light, moderate, and heavy rain of 7.5%, 9.8%, and 24.9% at 7–12 h, with limited improvement beyond 12 h. Furthermore, the root mean square error (RMSE) of the 2 m temperature forecasts decreased across all 1–72 h lead times, with a 4.2% reduction during the 1–9 h period, while the geopotential height RMSE reductions reached 5.8%, 3.3%, and 2.0% at 24, 48, and 72 h, respectively. Additionally, synchronized enhancements were observed in 10 m wind prediction accuracy. These findings underscore the critical role of cloud microphysical initialization in advancing mesoscale numerical weather prediction systems. Full article

Lightning is one of the most severe natural disasters, characterized by its sudden onset, short duration, and significant damage. Existing quality control (QC) schemes for millisecond-level lightning observation data from a single source are primarily limited by the instrument and equipment, leading to inadequate monitoring, forecasting, and early warning accuracy in severe convective weather. This study proposes a comprehensive QC scheme for lightning location data from the China Meteorological Administration ground-based National Lightning Detection Network (CMA-LDN). The scheme integrates radar composite reflectivity (CREF) and FY-4A cloud-top brightness temperature (TBB), exploring the coupled relationship between lightning activity and severe weather processes. Through experimental analysis of convective processes over different time periods, QC thresholds are established based on the CREF, TBB, and area ratio. In this research, CREF ≥ 10 dBZ, TBB ≤ 270 K, and an 80% area ratio are tuned to filter false signals. Based on the regional threshold and area ratio results, gross error elimination and spatiotemporal clustering are combined to achieve an overall QC rate of 28.7%. The most effective quality control (QC) method is spatial-temporal clustering, achieving a QC efficiency of 20.9%. The processed lightning data are further merged with CREF and generated a 1 km and 6 min resolution lightning location dataset, which significantly improves the accuracy of ground-based lightning detection and supports operational forecasting of severe convective weather. Full article

Weather forecasting is essential for agriculture, yet current methods often lack the localized accuracy required to manage extreme weather events and optimize irrigation. The MAGDA Horizon Europe/EUSPA project addresses this gap by developing a modular system that integrates novel European space-based, airborne, and ground-based technologies. Unlike conventional forecasting systems, MAGDA enables precise, field-level predictions through the integration of cutting-edge technologies: Meteodrones provide vertical atmospheric profiles where traditional data are sparse; GNSS-reflectometry offers real-time soil moisture insights; and all observations feed into convection-permitting models for accurate nowcasting of extreme events. By combining satellite data, GNSS, Meteodrones, and high-resolution meteorological models, MAGDA enhances agricultural and water management with precise, tailored forecasts. Climate change is intensifying extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall, hail, and droughts, threatening both crop yields and water resources. Improving forecast reliability requires better observational data to refine initial atmospheric conditions. Recent advancements in assimilating reflectivity and in situ observations into high-resolution NWMs show promise, particularly for convective weather. Experiments using Sentinel and GNSS-derived data have further improved severe weather prediction. MAGDA employs a high-resolution cloud-resolving model and integrates GNSS, radar, weather stations, and Meteodrones to provide comprehensive atmospheric insights. These enhanced forecasts support both irrigation management and extreme weather warnings, delivered through a Farm Management System to assist farmers. As climate change increases the frequency of floods and droughts, MAGDA’s integration of high-resolution, multi-source observational technologies, including GNSS-reflectometry and drone-based atmospheric profiling, is crucial for ensuring sustainable agriculture and efficient water resource management. Full article

Deep convective clouds, such as towering cumulus and Cumulonimbus, can endanger lives and property, also being a major hazard to aviation. This study presents the convective index (IndexCON) used operationally at the Portuguese Meteorological Watch Office. Moreover, IndexCON is evaluated against lightning and precipitation data for two years, between January 2022 and December 2023, over mainland Portugal and its surrounding areas. This index combines several European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) prognostic variables, such as stability indices, cloud water content, relative humidity and vertical velocity, using a fuzzy-logic approach. IndexCON performs well in the warm season (May–October), with a probability of detection (POD) of 70%, a false alarm ratio (FAR) of 30% and a probability of false detection (POFD) less than 5%, leading to a Critical Success Index (CSI) above 0.55. However, IndexCON performs worse in the cold season (November–April), when dynamical drivers are more relevant, mainly due to overestimating the convective activity, resulting in CSI and Heidke Skill Score (HSS) values below 0.3. Optimizing the membership functions partially reduces this overestimation. Finally, the added value of IndexCON was illustrated in detail for a thunderstorm episode, using satellite products, lightning and precipitation data. Full article

This study investigates a severe summer convective hailstorm that occurred in Shanghai on 18 August 2019, using multisource meteorological datasets, with a particular focus on the innovative application of a single-polarization X-band array weather radar (AWR). Radiosonde data revealed high convective available potential energy and unstable atmospheric indices, while wind profiler radars (WPRs) showed initial easterly moisture transport near the ground and strong southwesterly flow aloft, both contributing significantly to intense convection. Ground-based automatic meteorological stations (AMSs) recorded abrupt temperature drops of approximately 10 °C and wind speed increases exceeding 20 m s⁻¹, which aligned closely with the rapid expansion of the hailstorm. In addition, an integrated analysis of data from AWR, WPRs, and AMSs enabled detailed tracking of the storm’s evolution, providing deeper insights into the interplay between moisture transport and dynamic lifting. The AWR’s unique ability to capture divergence and vorticity fields at different altitudes revealed low-level convergence coupled with high-level divergence and cyclonic rotation, sustaining convective updrafts. This study underscores the value of high-resolution AWR data in capturing short-lived, intense precipitation processes, thereby enhancing our understanding of wind field structures and storm development. These findings highlight the comprehensive application of AWR data and the potential of this new high-spatiotemporal-resolution radar for investigating the mechanisms of short-lived severe convective processes. Full article

Forecasting thunderstorms, along with their intensity and phenomenon, is still one of the most challenging tasks in modern weather forecasting. One of the methods for this prediction is based on the indices of convective instability in the atmosphere. For the first time, we analysed the values and trends of 23 stability indices on days when hail occurred. From 2005 to 2020, the most frequently observed hailstones had a diameter between 13 and 20 mm, which accounted for 35.8% of all hail days, which was 826. Huge hailstones with a greater than 50 mm diameter were observed on only two days. Eight of the 23 stability indices show a monotonically decreasing (Showalter Index, Lifted Index, Lifted Index using the virtual temperature, and Humidity Index) or increasing trend (K Index, Convective Available Potential Energy for the most unstable air parcel and for mixing layer, and Convective Available Potential Energy in the layer between air temperatures −10 and −30 °C). These trends indicate that the environment is becoming increasingly favourable for the formation of thunderstorms. However, this potential does not appear to be fully realised, as the frequency of severe and large hail (with diameters of 21 mm or more) has not increased during the period studied. Full article

On the morning of 7 March 2025, the Argentine district of Bahía Blanca experienced a severe flooding that led to at least 15 fatalities. This study presents the main aspects of the event based on different data sources that helped to explain the exceptional precipitation of about 300 mm and rapid flooding. The results indicated that Bahía Blanca district presented flooded areas of approximately 33 km² (1.4% of the total area) on 10 March, most of them concentrated in the non-urbanized zones. However, a total of 18 km² (0.8% of the total area) was still identified on 11 March, with a greater impact on the low-lying urban areas of the Bahía Blanca, General Daniel Cerri, and Ingeniero White towns. The likelihood of severe weather development was confirmed from instability indices. The very high moisture content along a low-level convergence line, jointly with upper-level divergence, contributed to deep convective cloud development that affected Bahía Blanca for at least 6 h. Increasing knowledge of urban floods from different data sources can support weather forecasts to provide timely warnings, essential to mitigate the adverse impacts of these extreme weather events on low-lying urban areas. Full article

Vertically developing convective clouds (VDCCs), characterized by cloud-top ascent and cooling, are critical precursors to severe convective weather due to their association with intense updrafts. However, existing studies are constrained by limited spatiotemporal resolution of data and tracking methodologies, hindering real-time and pixel-level capture of VDCC evolution. Furthermore, large-scale statistical analyses of VDCC spatiotemporal distribution remain scarce compared with mature convective systems, particularly in topographically complex regions like the Tibetan Plateau (TP). To address these challenges, we integrated an optical flow algorithm (for dense atmospheric motion vector (AMV) retrieval) with cloud-top cooling rates (CTCRs, as indicators of vertical development), leveraging the high spatiotemporal resolution and multispectral capabilities of the GEO-KOMPSAT-2A (GK2A) satellite. This approach achieved pixel-level VDCC detection at 10 min intervals across diurnal cycles, enabling comprehensive statistical analysis. Based on this technical foundation, the most important finding in the study was the distinct convective spatiotemporal distribution over the TP and East Asia (EA) by analyzing VDCC detection data in three summers (2021–2023). Specifically, VDCC diurnal peaks preceded precipitation by 2–3 h, confirming their precursor roles in both study regions. Regional comparisons revealed that topographic and thermal forcing strongly influenced VDCC distribution patterns. The TP exhibited earlier and more frequent daytime convection at middle-to-low levels than EA, driven by intense thermal forcing, yet vertical development was limited by moisture scarcity. In contrast, EA’s monsoonal moisture sustained deeper convection, with more VDCCs penetrating the upper troposphere. The detection and statistical studies of VDCCs offer new insights into convective processes over the TP and surrounding regions, offering potential improvements in severe weather monitoring and early warning systems. Full article

On 13 August 2019, a severe convective precipitation event affected the Shanghai region. At 850 hPa, a low-level shear line influenced Shanghai with surface convergence, while at 700 hPa, an inversion layer separated warm, moist lower air from colder, drier air aloft, favoring convection. Observations also revealed vertical wind shear, facilitating additional convective growth. Observations from local automatic weather stations (AWSs) and wind profiler radars (WPRs) indicate that five minutes before rainfall began, ground heat and northerly winds collided, triggering the precipitation. Both the S-band Qingpu SA radar and a novel single-polarization X-band Array weather radar system (Array Weather Radar, AWR) with three phased-array radar frontends and one radar backend captured this event. Compared with the relatively coarse spatiotemporal resolution of the Qingpu SA radar, the AWR provides high-resolution wind-field data, enabling the derivation of horizontal divergence and vertical vorticity. A detailed analysis of reflectivity, divergence, and vorticity in the AWR’s overlapping detection areas shows that, during the development and mature stages of the cell’s lifecycle, the volume of echoes with Z > 25 dBZ consistently increases, whereas echoes with Z > 45 dBZ grow in an oscillatory pattern, reaching five peaks. Moreover, at the altitudes where Z > 45 dBZ appears, regions of cyclonic vorticity emerge. Full article

Quantitative precipitation estimation using polarimetric radar in attenuation-prone frequency (X-band) in tropical regions characterized by convective rain systems with high intensities is a major challenge due to strong attenuations that can lead to total signal extinction over short distances. However, some authors have addressed this issue in Benin since 2006 in the framework of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis program. Thus, with an experimental setup consisting of an X-band polarimetric weather radar (Xport) and a network of rain gauges, investigations have started on the subject with the aim of improving rainfall estimates. Based on simulated polarimetric variables and using a Multilayer Perceptron artificial neural network, several bi-variable and tri-variable algorithms were assessed in this study. The data used in this study are of two categories: (i) simulated polarimetric variables (Rayleigh reflectivity $Z$, horizontal attenuation $A_h$, horizontal reflectivity $Z_h$, differential reflectivity $Z_{dr}$, and specific differential phase $K_{dp}$) and rainfall intensity (R) obtained from Rain Drop Size Distribution (DSD) measurements used for algorithm evaluation (training and testing); (ii) polarimetric variables measured by the Xport radar and rainfall intensity measured by rain gauges used for algorithm validation. The simulations are performed using the T-matrix code, which leverages the scattering properties of spheroidal particles. The DSD measurements taken in northwest Benin were used as input for this code. For each spectrum, the T-matrix code simulates multiple variables. The simulated data (first category) were divided into two parts: one for training and one for testing. Subsequently, the best algorithms were validated with the second category of data. The performance of the algorithms during training, testing, and validation was evaluated using metrics. The best selected algorithms are $A1:R(Z,K_{dp})$ and $A12:R(Z_{dr},K_{dp})$ (among the bi-variable); $B2:R(Z_h,Z_{dr},K_{dp})$ and $B3:R(A_h,Z_{dr},K_{dp})$ (among the tri-variable). Tri-variable algorithms outperform bi-variable algorithms. Validation with observation data (Xport measurements and rain gauge network) showed that the algorithm $B3:R(A_h,Z_{dr},K_{dp})$ performs better than $B2:R(Z_h,Z_{dr},K_{dp})$. Full article

This study investigates the impact of rain-induced attenuation on cross-polarization discrimination (XPD) in Earth–space satellite links operating at millimeter-wave frequencies in Pretoria, South Africa. The traditional method of computing XPD employs a constant annual mean rain height and annual mean co-polar attenuation (CPA) over a certain location. This research utilized seasonal rain height data obtained from a recent study and the latest ITU-R P.618-14 guidelines, to compute and analyze XPD variations across six selected frequencies (11.7 GHz to 35 GHz) for different percentages of time exceedance in Pretoria. The study reveals significant seasonal dependencies of rain heights, with XPD reaching its maximum during winter due to lower rain height, and lower rain-induced attenuation and its minimum during summer, characterized by intense convective rainfall and maximum rain height. For instance, the estimated XPD for a 35 GHz signal at 0.01% of the time in the summer, spring, winter, and autumn are 13, 14, 15, and 14 dB, respectively. This implies that radio signals suffer severe attenuation caused by low XPD in the summer. The relationship between CPA and XPD highlights the need for increased XPD margins at higher frequencies to mitigate signal degradation caused by rain depolarization. Practical recommendations include the adoption of adaptive modulation and coding schemes to maintain link reliability during adverse weather conditions, particularly in summer. This research highlights the significance of incorporating frequency-dependent parameters and rain height variability in XPD estimation to enhance the design of satellite communication systems, ensuring optimized performance and reliable operation in a tropical climate. Full article