Climate Change Effects on Heat Waves and Future Heat Wave-Associated IHD Mortality in Germany
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Data and Methods
2.1. Mortality Data
2.2. Meteorological Data from Observations
2.3. Climate Model Data
RCM Acronym | Modeling Group | Driving GCM |
---|---|---|
C4I_RCA3 | Community Climate Change Consortium for Ireland (C4I), Ireland | HadCM3Q16 |
CNRM_RM5.1 | Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques (CNRM), France | ARPEGE_RM5.1 |
DMI_HIRHAM5 | Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Denmark | ARPEGE |
DMI_HIRHAM5 | ECHAM5, run3 | |
DMI_HIRHAM5 | BCM | |
ETHZ_CLM2.4.6 | Eidgenoessische Technische Hochschule Zuerich (ETHZ), Switzerland | HadCM3Q0 |
ICTP_RegCM3 | International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Italy | ECHAM5, run3 |
KNMI_RACMO2 | Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI), Netherlands | ECHAM5, run3 |
METEO-HC_HadRM3Q0 | Met Office Hadley Centre, United Kingdom | HadCM3Q0 |
METEO-HC_HadRM3Q3 | HadCM3Q3 | |
METEO-HC_HadRM3Q16 | HadCM3Q16 | |
MPI_REMO5.7 | Max Planck Institute (MPI), Germany | ECHAM5, run3 |
SMHI_RCA3 | Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Sweden | BCM |
SMHI_RCA3 | ECHAM5, run3 | |
SMHI_RCA3 | HadCM3Q3 | |
MPI_REMO5.7 | Max Planck Institute (MPI), Germany, on behalf of the Federal Environment Agency, 2006, and the Federal Institute for Hydrology, 2009 | ECHAM5, run1 |
MPI_REMO5.8 | ECHAM5, run2 | |
GKSS_CLM2.4.11 | Helmholtz Center Geesthacht, Germany | ECHAM5, run1 |
GKSS_CLM2.4.11 | ECHAM5, run2 |
2.4. Heat Wave Definition and Metrics
- -
- HWN (heat wave number): the average number of heat waves per year
- -
- HWF (heat wave frequency): the average number of heat wave days per year
- -
- HWMD (heat wave mean duration): the average duration of heat waves per studied time period
- -
- HWLD (heat wave longest duration): the average duration of the longest heat wave per year (years without heat waves are excluded from this analysis)
- -
- HWI (heat wave intensity): the average temperature during heat waves per studied time period
- -
- HWA (heat wave amplitude): the average temperature of the hottest heat wave day per year (years without heat waves are excluded from this analysis)
2.5. Calculation of Heat Wave-Related IHD Excess Deaths
3. Results
3.1. Future Heat Wave Characteristics
OBS | RCMs | RCMs | RCMs | CC Signal Near Future | CC Signal Remote Future | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(2001–2010) | (1971–2000) | (2021–2050) | (2069–2098) | |||
HWN | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 2.6 |
(number) | (1.0/1.3) | (1.3/2.5) | (1.7/5.2) | (0.0/1.3) | (0.4/4.1) | |
HWF | 5.4 | 5.7 | 10.1 | 23.3 | 4.4 | 17.6 |
(number) | (4.6/7.6) | (5.9/14.9) | (8.2/38.9) | (0.2/9.3) | (1.7/33.6) | |
HWMD | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 0.3 | 1.2 |
(days) | (4.1/6.7) | (4.2/6.2) | (4.8/7.8) | (-0.5/1.3) | (-0.5/3.0) | |
HWLD | 5.6 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 10.1 | 1.0 | 4.4 |
(days) | (4.7/8.4) | (4.7/9.0) | (5.9/16.4) | (-0.8/3.1) | (0.0/10.5) | |
HWI | 24.7 | 24.2 | 24.5 | 25.1 | 0.3 | 0.9 |
(°C) | (20.9/30.3) | (21.0/31.2) | (21.7/31.1) | (0.1/1.0) | (0.3/1.7) | |
HWA | 26.0 | 25.9 | 26.7 | 28.8 | 0.8 | 2.9 |
(°C) | (22.2/33.0) | (22.7/34.8) | (24.2/35.7) | (0.1/2.5) | (1.0/5.2) |
3.2. Future Heat Wave-Associated IHD Mortality
OBS | RCMs | RCMs | RCMs | CC Signal Near Future | CC Signal Remote Future | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(2001–2010) | (1971–2000) | (2021–2050) | (2069–2098) | |||
AC0 | 331 | 352 | 685 | 1801 | 333 | 1449 |
(251/496) | (324/1132) | (572/3362) | (36/760) | (160/3024) | ||
AC50 | 331 | 352 | 494 | 835 | 142 | 483 |
(251/496) | (281/730) | (440/1313) | (−15/351) | (28/970) |
4. Discussion and Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Zacharias, S.; Koppe, C.; Mücke, H.-G. Climate Change Effects on Heat Waves and Future Heat Wave-Associated IHD Mortality in Germany. Climate 2015, 3, 100-117. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli3010100
Zacharias S, Koppe C, Mücke H-G. Climate Change Effects on Heat Waves and Future Heat Wave-Associated IHD Mortality in Germany. Climate. 2015; 3(1):100-117. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli3010100
Chicago/Turabian StyleZacharias, Stefan, Christina Koppe, and Hans-Guido Mücke. 2015. "Climate Change Effects on Heat Waves and Future Heat Wave-Associated IHD Mortality in Germany" Climate 3, no. 1: 100-117. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli3010100