Climate Change Effects on Heat Waves and Future Heat Wave-Associated IHD Mortality in Germany
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Data and Methods
2.1. Mortality Data
2.2. Meteorological Data from Observations
2.3. Climate Model Data
RCM Acronym | Modeling Group | Driving GCM |
---|---|---|
C4I_RCA3 | Community Climate Change Consortium for Ireland (C4I), Ireland | HadCM3Q16 |
CNRM_RM5.1 | Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques (CNRM), France | ARPEGE_RM5.1 |
DMI_HIRHAM5 | Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Denmark | ARPEGE |
DMI_HIRHAM5 | ECHAM5, run3 | |
DMI_HIRHAM5 | BCM | |
ETHZ_CLM2.4.6 | Eidgenoessische Technische Hochschule Zuerich (ETHZ), Switzerland | HadCM3Q0 |
ICTP_RegCM3 | International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Italy | ECHAM5, run3 |
KNMI_RACMO2 | Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI), Netherlands | ECHAM5, run3 |
METEO-HC_HadRM3Q0 | Met Office Hadley Centre, United Kingdom | HadCM3Q0 |
METEO-HC_HadRM3Q3 | HadCM3Q3 | |
METEO-HC_HadRM3Q16 | HadCM3Q16 | |
MPI_REMO5.7 | Max Planck Institute (MPI), Germany | ECHAM5, run3 |
SMHI_RCA3 | Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Sweden | BCM |
SMHI_RCA3 | ECHAM5, run3 | |
SMHI_RCA3 | HadCM3Q3 | |
MPI_REMO5.7 | Max Planck Institute (MPI), Germany, on behalf of the Federal Environment Agency, 2006, and the Federal Institute for Hydrology, 2009 | ECHAM5, run1 |
MPI_REMO5.8 | ECHAM5, run2 | |
GKSS_CLM2.4.11 | Helmholtz Center Geesthacht, Germany | ECHAM5, run1 |
GKSS_CLM2.4.11 | ECHAM5, run2 |
2.4. Heat Wave Definition and Metrics
- -
- HWN (heat wave number): the average number of heat waves per year
- -
- HWF (heat wave frequency): the average number of heat wave days per year
- -
- HWMD (heat wave mean duration): the average duration of heat waves per studied time period
- -
- HWLD (heat wave longest duration): the average duration of the longest heat wave per year (years without heat waves are excluded from this analysis)
- -
- HWI (heat wave intensity): the average temperature during heat waves per studied time period
- -
- HWA (heat wave amplitude): the average temperature of the hottest heat wave day per year (years without heat waves are excluded from this analysis)
2.5. Calculation of Heat Wave-Related IHD Excess Deaths
3. Results
3.1. Future Heat Wave Characteristics
OBS | RCMs | RCMs | RCMs | CC Signal Near Future | CC Signal Remote Future | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(2001–2010) | (1971–2000) | (2021–2050) | (2069–2098) | |||
HWN | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 2.6 |
(number) | (1.0/1.3) | (1.3/2.5) | (1.7/5.2) | (0.0/1.3) | (0.4/4.1) | |
HWF | 5.4 | 5.7 | 10.1 | 23.3 | 4.4 | 17.6 |
(number) | (4.6/7.6) | (5.9/14.9) | (8.2/38.9) | (0.2/9.3) | (1.7/33.6) | |
HWMD | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 0.3 | 1.2 |
(days) | (4.1/6.7) | (4.2/6.2) | (4.8/7.8) | (-0.5/1.3) | (-0.5/3.0) | |
HWLD | 5.6 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 10.1 | 1.0 | 4.4 |
(days) | (4.7/8.4) | (4.7/9.0) | (5.9/16.4) | (-0.8/3.1) | (0.0/10.5) | |
HWI | 24.7 | 24.2 | 24.5 | 25.1 | 0.3 | 0.9 |
(°C) | (20.9/30.3) | (21.0/31.2) | (21.7/31.1) | (0.1/1.0) | (0.3/1.7) | |
HWA | 26.0 | 25.9 | 26.7 | 28.8 | 0.8 | 2.9 |
(°C) | (22.2/33.0) | (22.7/34.8) | (24.2/35.7) | (0.1/2.5) | (1.0/5.2) |
3.2. Future Heat Wave-Associated IHD Mortality
OBS | RCMs | RCMs | RCMs | CC Signal Near Future | CC Signal Remote Future | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(2001–2010) | (1971–2000) | (2021–2050) | (2069–2098) | |||
AC0 | 331 | 352 | 685 | 1801 | 333 | 1449 |
(251/496) | (324/1132) | (572/3362) | (36/760) | (160/3024) | ||
AC50 | 331 | 352 | 494 | 835 | 142 | 483 |
(251/496) | (281/730) | (440/1313) | (−15/351) | (28/970) |
4. Discussion and Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
- Basu, R. High ambient temperature and mortality: A review of epidemiologic studies from 2001 to 2008. Environ. Health 2009, 8. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Ostro, B.; Rauch, S.; Green, R.; Malig, B.; Basu, R. The effects of temperature and use of air conditioning on hospitalizations. Am. J. Epidemiol. 2010, 172, 1053–1061. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Luber, G.; McGeehin, M. Climate change and extreme heat events. Am. J. Prev. Med. 2008, 35, 429–435. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Larsen, J. Setting the Record Straight: More than 52,000 Europeans Died from Heat in Summer 2003. Available online: http://www.earth-policy.org/plan_b_updates/2006/update56 (assessed on 6 October 2014).
- Gosling, S.N.; Lowe, J.A.; McGregor, G.R.; Pelling, M.; Malamud, B.D. Associations between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: A critical review of the literature. Clim. Chang. 2009, 92, 299–341. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Baccini, M.; Biggeri, A.; Accetta, G.; Kosatsky, T.; Katsouyanni, K.; Analitis, A.; Anderson, H.R.; Bisanti, L.; D’Ippoliti, D.; Danova, J.; et al. Heat effects on mortality in 15 European cities. Epidemiology 2008, 19, 711–719. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Kyselý, J.; Plavcová, E.; Davídkovová, H.; Kynčl, J. Comparison of hot and cold spell effects on cardiovascular mortality in individual population groups in the Czech Republic. Clim. Res. 2011, 49, 113–129. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Kovats, R.S.; Hajat, S. Heat stress and public health: a critical review. Annu. Rev. Public Health 2008, 29, 41–55. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Anderson, G.B.; Bell, M.L. Heat waves in the United States: Mortality risk during heat waves and effect modification by heat wave characteristics in 43 US communities. Environ. Health Perspect. 2011, 119, 210–218. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Hajat, S.; Armstrong, B.; Baccini, M.; Biggeri, A.; Bisanti, L.; Russo, A.; Paldy, A.; Menne, B.; Kosatsky, T. Impact of high temperatures on mortality: Is there an added heat wave effect? Epidemiology 2006, 17, 632–638. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Cheng, X.; Su, H. Effects of climatic temperature stress on cardiovascular diseases. Eur. J. Intern. Med. 2010, 21, 164–167. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Nawrot, T.S.; Staessen, J.A.; Fagard, R.H.; van Bortel, L.M.; Struijker-Boudier, H.A. Endothelial function and outdoor temperature. Eur. J. Epidemiol. 2005, 20, 407–410. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Havenith, G. Temperature regulation, heat balance and climatic stress. In Extreme Weather Events and Public Health Responses; Springer-Berlin: Heidelberg, Germany, 2005; pp. 69–80. [Google Scholar]
- Shapiro, Y.; Moran, D.; Epstein, Y. Acclimatization strategies—Preparing for exercise in the heat. Int. J. Sports Med. 1998, 19, 161–163. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Meehl, G.A.; Tebaldi, C. More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century. Science 2004, 305, 994–997. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Huang, C.; Barnett, A.G.; Wang, X.; Vaneckova, P.; FitzGerald, G.; Tong, S. Projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios: A systematic review. Environ. Health Perspect. 2011, 119, 1681–1690. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed] [Green Version]
- Peng, R.D.; Tebaldi, C.; McDaniel, L.; Bobb, J.; Dominici, F.; Bell, M.D. Toward a quantitative estimate of future heat wave mortality under global climate change. Environ. Health Perspect. 2011, 119, 701–706. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Wu, J.; Zhou, Y.; Gao, Y.; Fu, J.S.; Johnson, B.A.; Huang, C.; Kim, Y.-M.; Liu, Y. Estimation and uncertainty analysis of impacts of future heat waves on mortality in the eastern United States. Environ. Health Perspect. 2014, 122, 10–16. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Bittner, M.I. Effects of heat waves on mortality in Germany. Gesundheitswesen 2013. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Zacharias, S.; Koppe, C.; Mücke, H.-G. Influence of heat waves on ischemic heart diseases in Germany. Climate 2014, 2, 133–152. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Nakicenovic, N.; Alcamo, J.; Davis, G.; de Vries, B.; Fenhann, J.; Gaffin, S.; Gregory, K.; Gruebler, A.; Jung, T.Y.; Kram, T. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Working Group III, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK, 2000. [Google Scholar]
- Federal Statistical Office of Germany. Gesundheit: Todesursachen in Deutschland 2010; Statistisches Bundesamt: Wiesbaden, Germany, 2011. [Google Scholar]
- ENSEMBLES Data Base. Available online: http://www.ensembles-eu.org/ (assessed on 15 October 2014).
- Hewitt, C.D. The ENSEMBLES Project: Providing ensemble-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts. EGGS Newsl. 2005, 13, 22–25. [Google Scholar]
- CERA Data Base. Available online: http://cera-www.dkrz.de/CERA/index.html (assessed on 26 October 2014).
- Robinson, P.J. On the definition of a heat wave. J. Appl. Meteorol. 2001, 40, 762–775. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Dominici, F. Invited Commentary: Air pollution and health—What can we learn from a hierarchical approach? Am. J. Epidemiol. 2002, 155, 11–15. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Hales, S.; Kovats, S.; Lloyd, S.; Campbell-Lendrum, D. Quantitative Risk Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Selected Causes of Death, 2030s and 2050s. Available online: http://www.who.int/globalchange/publications/quantitative-risk-assessment/en/ (assessed on 5 November 2014).
- Fischer, E.M.; Schär, C. Consistent geographical patterns of changes in high-impact European heatwaves. Nat. Geosci. 2010, 3, 398–403. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Cowan, T.; Purich, A.; Perkins, S.; Pezza, A.; Boschat, G.; Sadler, K. More frequent, longer and hotter heat waves for Australia in the 21st century. J. Clim. 2014, 27, 5851–5871. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Koffi, B.; Koffi, E. Heat waves across Europe by the end of the 21st century: Multiregional climate simulations. Clim. Res. 2008, 36, 153–168. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Sheridan, S.C.; Allen, M.J.; Lee, C.C.; Kalkstein, L.S. Future heat vulnerability in California, Part II: projecting future heat-related mortality. Clim. Chang. 2012, 115, 311–326. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Morabito, M.; Crisci, A.; Moriondo, M.; Profili, F.; Francesconi, P.; Trombi, G.; Orlandini, S. Air temperature-related human health outcomes: Current impact and estimations of future risks in Central Italy. Sci. Total Environ. 2012, 441, 28–40. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Petkova, E.P.; Bader, D.A.; Anderson, G.B.; Horton, R.M.; Knowlton, K.; Kinney, P.L. Heat-related mortality in a warming climate: Projections for 12 US cities. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2014, 11, 11371–11383. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Gosling, S.N.; McGregor, G.R.; Lowe, J.A. The benefits of quantifying climate model uncertainty in climate change impacts assessment: An example with heat-related mortality change estimates. Clim. Chang. 2012, 112, 217–231. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Knowlton, K.; Lynn, B.; Goldberg, R.A.; Rosenzweig, C.; Hogrefe, C.; Rosenthal, J.K.; Kinney, P.L. Projecting heat-related mortality impacts under a changing climate in the New York City region. Am. J. Public Health 2007, 97, 2028–2034. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Lin, S.; Hsu, W.H.; van Zutphen, A.R.; Saha, S.; Luber, G.; Hwang, S.A. Excessive heat and respiratory hospitalizations in New York State: Estimating current and future public health burden related to climate change. Environ. Health Perspect. 2012, 120, 1571–1577. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Hajat, S.; Kosatky, T. Heat-related mortality: A review and exploration of heterogeneity. J. Epidemiol. Community Health 2010, 64, 753–760. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Marti-Soler, H.; Gonseth, S.; Gubelmann, C.; Stringhini, S.; Bovet, P.; Chen, P.C.; Wojtyniak, B.; Paccaud, F.; Tsai, D.H.; Zdrojewski, T.; et al. Seasonal variation of overall and cardiovascular mortality: A study in 19 countries from different geographic locations. PLoS One 2014, 9, e113500. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Li, T.; Horton, R.M.; Kinney, P.L. Projections of seasonal patterns in temperature-related deaths for Manhattan, New York. Nat. Clim. Chang. 2013, 3, 717–721. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Stafoggia, M.; Forastiere, F.; Michelozzi, P.; Perucci, C.A. Summer temperature-related mortality: Effect modification by previous winter mortality. Epidemiology 2009, 20, 575–583. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Bassil, K.L.; Cole, D.C. Effectiveness of public health interventions in reducing morbidity and mortality during heat episodes: a structured review. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2010, 7, 991–1001. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Heudorf, U.; Schade, M. Heat waves and mortality in Frankfurt am Main, Germany, 2003–2013: What effect do heat-health action plans and the heat warning system have? Z. Gerontol. Geriatr. 2014, 47, 475–482. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
© 2014 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Share and Cite
Zacharias, S.; Koppe, C.; Mücke, H.-G. Climate Change Effects on Heat Waves and Future Heat Wave-Associated IHD Mortality in Germany. Climate 2015, 3, 100-117. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli3010100
Zacharias S, Koppe C, Mücke H-G. Climate Change Effects on Heat Waves and Future Heat Wave-Associated IHD Mortality in Germany. Climate. 2015; 3(1):100-117. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli3010100
Chicago/Turabian StyleZacharias, Stefan, Christina Koppe, and Hans-Guido Mücke. 2015. "Climate Change Effects on Heat Waves and Future Heat Wave-Associated IHD Mortality in Germany" Climate 3, no. 1: 100-117. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli3010100
APA StyleZacharias, S., Koppe, C., & Mücke, H. -G. (2015). Climate Change Effects on Heat Waves and Future Heat Wave-Associated IHD Mortality in Germany. Climate, 3(1), 100-117. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli3010100