Int. J. Financial Stud., Volume 9, Issue 2 (June 2021) – 16 articles

The change of information near light speed, advances in high-speed trading, spatial arbitrage strategies and foreseen space exploration, suggest the need to consider the effects of the theory of relativity in finance models. Time and space, under certain circumstances, are not dissociated and can no longer be interpreted as Euclidean. This paper provides an overview of the research made in this field while formally defining the key notions of spacetime, proper time and an understanding of how time dilation impacts financial models. We illustrate how special relativity modifies option pricing and hedging, under the Black–Scholes model, when market participants are in two different reference frames. In particular, we look into maturity and volatility relativistic effects. Full article

The business environment of today is complex and dynamic due to increasing global competition. The businessman needs to master and know all the information that has strategic value, and Competitive Intelligence is positioned as the most appropriate tool to achieve this goal. In recent decades, research and publications related to Competitive Intelligence have been increasing, although the military heritage of this field of research and the association with large corporations has meant that the literature is still at an early phase of development and specialisation. This paper analyses scientific articles on Competitive Intelligence from journals in the Web of Science database between 1985 and 2021. The main objective of this research has been to detect the topics that have been most related to Competitive Intelligence. The 589 papers analysed indicate that interest in this topic is relatively recent and that the most central topic in the sample is Innovation. The bibliometric analysis carried out indicates that Competitive Intelligence is closely linked to innovation processes in companies, facilitating its development. Furthermore, it highlights the importance that business management, together with the promotion of absorptive capacity and alignment around Competitive Intelligence will allow companies to improve their competitive advantages, as well as greater success with new products. Little research was found on aspects related to small and medium-sized enterprises and patents in relation to Competitive Intelligence. This research aims to show which are the most researched topics in relation to Competitive Intelligence, so that it can serve as support for future research, as well as for company managers in making decisions in relation to this topic. Full article

This paper investigates the dynamic tail dependence risk between BRICS economies and the world energy market, in the context of the COVID-19 financial crisis of 2020, in order to determine optimal investment decisions based on risk metrics. For this purpose, we employ a combination of novel statistical techniques, including Vector Autoregressive (VAR), Markov-switching GJR-GARCH, and vine copula methods. Using a data set consisting of daily stock and world crude oil prices, we find evidence of a structure break in the volatility process, consisting of high and low persistence volatility processes, with a high persistence in the probabilities of transition between lower and higher volatility regimes, as well as the presence of leverage effects. Furthermore, our results based on the C-vine copula confirm the existence of two types of tail dependence: symmetric tail dependence between South Africa and China, South Africa and Russia, and South Africa and India, and asymmetric lower tail dependence between South Africa and Brazil, and South Africa and crude oil. For the purpose of diversification in these markets, we formulate an asset allocation problem using raw returns, MS GARCH returns, and C-vine and R-vine copula-based returns, and optimize it using a Particle Swarm optimization algorithm with a rebalancing strategy. The results demonstrate an inverse relationship between the risk contribution and asset allocation of South Africa and the crude oil market, supporting the existence of a lower tail dependence between them. This suggests that, when South African stocks are in distress, investors tend to shift their holdings in the oil market. Similar results are found between Russia and crude oil, as well as Brazil and crude oil. In the symmetric tail, South African asset allocation is found to have a well-diversified relationship with that of China, Russia, and India, suggesting that these three markets might be good investment destinations when things are not good in South Africa, and vice versa. Full article

In this paper, a dynamic mixture copula model is used to estimate the marginal expected shortfall in the South African insurance sector. We also employ the generalized autoregressive score model (GAS) to capture the dynamic asymmetric dependence between the insurers’ returns and the stock market returns. Furthermore, the paper implements a ranking framework that expresses to what extent individual insurers are systemically important in the South African economy. We use the daily stock return of five South African insurers listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange from November 2007 to June 2020. We find that Sanlam and Discovery contribute the most to systemic risk, and Santam turns out to be the least systemically risky insurance company in the South African insurance sector. Our findings defy common belief whereby only banks are systemically risky financial institutions in South Africa and should undergo stricter regulatory measures. However, our results indicate that stricter regulations such as higher capital and loss absorbency requirements should be required for systemically risky insurers in South Africa. Full article

We investigated the differential impacts of a new Twitter-based Market Uncertainty index (TMU) and variables for Bitcoin before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Results showed that TMU is a leading indicator of Bitcoin returns only during the pandemic, and the effect of the TMU on Bitcoin’s conditional volatility is significantly greater during the pandemic. Furthermore, during the pandemic, the uncertainty content of people’s tweets is impacted by the highly salient Bitcoin market. Taken together, our results suggest that the information contained in virtual communities such as Twitter have a much larger impact on cryptocurrency markets following COVID-19. Full article

The management of cash requires careful considerations to allow firms to benefit from proper resource allocations while mitigating agency issues. Accounting comparability can play an important role in tackling information asymmetry and agency cost, thus enabling managers to hoard more cash. This research aims to investigate the link between accounting comparability and cash holdings in an emerging market. Using a sample of listed firms in Vietnam from 2010 to 2019 and System Generalized Method of Moments, the study finds that comparability is positively associated with corporate cash holdings, confirming the value of the former as an effective governance mechanism. Additionally, we find a non-linear impact of comparability on cash holdings; in other words, comparability specifically enhances cash holdings for firms with high levels of comparability. We further document that cash holdings improve firm performance only for firms with high levels of comparability. Such evidence implies that only firms with high levels of financial statement comparability show commitment to tackle agency cost and information asymmetry. Full article

With this study, we aimed to determine (1) the effect of the daily new cases and deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States on the CBOE volatility index (VIX index) and (2) the effect of the VIX index on the major stock markets during the early stage of the pandemic period. To do this, we collected and analysed the daily new cases and death numbers during the COVID-19 pandemic period in the United States and the country indexes of the USA (DJI), Germany (DAX), France (CAC40), England (FTSE100), Italy (MIB), China (SSEC) and Japan (Nikkei225) to determine the impact of the VIX index on the major stock markets. We then subjected this data to the Johansen co-integration test and the fully modified least-squares (FMOLS) method. The results indicated that there was co-integration between the VIX and the COVID-19 pandemic and that there was co-integration between the VIX index and major indexes, except for the CAC 40 and MIB. Moreover, the results showed that the new COVID-19 cases in the USA had a higher impact on the VIX than cases of deaths during the same period. Full article

Audit reports represent the only information stakeholders have about conducted audits and they are a key instrument used in economic and financial decisions. Improving audit reports should be a priority of regulators and auditors. The authors solicited perceptions from 212 experienced auditors and financial report users about the value of audit reports and ways to improve their format and content. An analysis of the responses suggests that adding information on audits (such as auditor’s responsibility about fraud) and on annual accounts and client’s information systems, without significant changes in the format, would improve the decision usefulness of audit reports. The growing sophistication of markets and reporting standards requires new information in audit reports, such as auditors’ conclusions about management’s estimates in annual accounts. The study is useful to regulators, auditors’ corporations, academics, and users and contributes to the current audit literature by providing evidence on consensus between auditors and users with regard to the format and content of audit reports. Full article

The present research investigates the impact of trading volume on stock return volatility using data from the Greek banking system. For our analysis, the empirical study uses daily measures of volatility constructed from intraday data for the period 5 January 2001–30 December 2020. This period includes several market phases, such as the latest financial crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis and enforcement of restrictions on transactions owing to capital controls on the Athens Stock Exchange in June 2015. Based on the estimated quantile regressions, we find evidence of a direct impact of the trading volume on stock return volatility mainly in all quantiles. The findings extrapolated are of relevance and interest to financial (banking) analysts, policy makers and practitioners concerned with intraday data and volatility modeling. Full article

This study extracts the common factors from firm-based credit spreads of major Japanese corporate bonds and examines the predictive content of the credit spread on the real economy. Instead of employing single-maturity corporate bond spreads, we focus on the entire term structure of the credit spread to predict the business cycle. We extend the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model to allow for both common and firm-specific factors. The results show that the estimated common factors are important drivers of individual credit spreads and have substantial predictive power for future Japanese economic activity. This study contributes to the literature by examining the relationship between firm-based credit spread curves and economic fluctuation and forecasting the business cycle. Full article

The aim of this study is to examine the effect of short-selling deregulation on the financial performance of SMEs in China. The external governance role of short-selling is also tested by adopting corporate social responsibility (CSR) performance as the mediating effect. This study investigates a panel data analysis with a sample of 5038 firm-years of SMEs listed in Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2010 to 2019. The PSM-DID method is adopted in this study to alleviate self-selection and endogenous problems to observe the comparable pure effect of short-selling deregulation, while the mediation test is conducted based on Baron and Kenny’s model. The finding of this study showed that the existence of short-selling could enhance firm financial performance and the mediating effect of CSR performance position in their relationship. In addition, the further analysis revealed that the mediating effect of CSR is more pronounced for family businesses and firms with high real short-selling threats. The robust test of alternative measurements is conducted and valid. This study provides insights for policymakers to consider further short-selling ban lifting and corporate executives to practice more CSR activities to improve the financial performance. Limitations and further implications of this study are also discussed. Full article

Using a new panel cointegration test that considers serial correlation and cross-section dependence on a mixed and heterogenous sample of Saudi banks, we revisit the cointegrating equation of the z-score index of banking stability. Our results show that even when we consider the cross-section dependency and serial correlation of the errors, there is a possibility of a long-run relationship, which holds in our sample of banks. Furthermore, in the medium term, we found some banks to be integrated, whereas others were non-cointegrated. We interpret this to suggest that some banks contribute to banking stability, whereas others do not. In other words, there exists at least one bank that acts as a destabilizer and the challenge for financial regulators is to identify which banks these are. However, the current version of the Hadri et al. test does not allow for the identification of the non-cointegrated banks. If the test was able to do that, the regulatory authorities would be able to develop corrective policies/measures specifically tailored to the non-cointegrated units. Full article

This study aims to explore the investment behavior of female entrepreneurs as the new competitor in the investment field and to determine the underlying factors that influence their investment attitudes. A qualitative investigation approach was employed for the study that includes 18 in-depth exploratory interviews to ascertain the fundamental determinants of the investment behavior represented by female entrepreneurs, an emergent section in investment. The accumulated data was analyzed through manual coding procedures. The study revealed that female entrepreneurs are not inclined to take risk in their business for investment decisions, they are somewhat conservative and risk averse. This research also asserts that if they spend quality time and get better training about the nuances of different investment tools, so they will also take risks in investment activities. Two big cosmopolitan cities Karachi and Lahore in Pakistan were selected as sample for this study. Research in other countries considering the culture and ethnicity must be conducted to expand the scope of understanding the investment behaviors of female entrepreneurs. This study outcomes would help the investment manager to understand women’s psychology to develop significant portfolio recommendations, service providers to develop consultancy training centers, policy makers to mitigate their risk and maximize their return opportunities. Hence, intending to provide opportunities for gender equalities, this research appears to be the first in Pakistan to adopt the inductive approach in this domain. Full article

It is well known that intraday returns tend to reverse the following intraday period, conditional on excess buying pressure on the bid or ask side. This suggests that liquidity providers “overreact” to order imbalance (OIB) by initially altering quotes so much that a negative autocorrelation is seen in mid-price returns. We investigate under which circumstances this behavior is most common. Specifically, it seems the tick size augments “OIB-reversal”. However, if the tick size is binding for much of the trading day, it has the opposite effect of censoring such reversals. In addition, if market liquidity is high, the reversal becomes more frequent. Full article

During the past decades, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) had become one of a prevalent linear models in time series and forecasting. Empirical research advocated that forecasting with non-linear models can be an encouraging alternative to traditional linear models. Linear models are often compared to non-linear models with mixed conclusions in terms of superiority in forecasting performance. Therefore, the aim of this study is to build an early warning system (EWS) model for extreme daily losses for financial stock markets. A logistic model tree (LMT) is used in collaboration with a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average-Markov-Switching exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity-generalised extreme value distribution (SARIMA-MS-EGARCH-GEVD) estimates. A time series of the study is a five-day financial time series exchange/Johannesburg stock exchange-all share index (FTSE/JSE-ALSI) for the period of 4 January 2010 to 31 July 2020. The study is set into a two-stage framework. Firstly, SARIMA model is fitted to stock returns in order to obtain independently and identically distributed (i.i.d) residuals and fit the MS(k)-EGARCH(p,q)-GEVD to i.i.d residuals; while, in the second stage, we set-up an EWS model. The results of the estimated MS(2)-EGARCH(1,1) -GEVD revealed that the conditional distribution of returns is highly volatile giving the expected duration to approximately 36 months and 4 days in regime one and 58 months and 2 days in regime two. We further found that any degree losses above 25% implies that there will be no further losses. Using the seven statistical loss functions, the estimated $SARIMA(2,1,0)\times {(2,1,0)}_{240}-MS\left(2\right)-EGARCH(1,1)-GEVD$ proved to be the most appropriate model for predicting extreme regimes losses as it was ranked at 71%. Finally, the results of EWS model exhibit reasonably an overall performance of 98%, sensitivity of 79.89% and specificity of 98.40% respectively. The model further indicated a success classification rate of 89% and a prediction rate of 95%. This is a promising technique for EWS. The findings also confirmed 63% and 51% of extreme losses for both training sample and validation sample to be correctly classified. The findings of this study are useful for decision makers and financial sector for future use and planning. Furthermore, a base for future researchers for conducting studies on emerging markets, have been contributed. These results are also important to risk managers and and investors. Full article

Studies on the characteristics of insolvent firms’ earnings management are critical, as the ripple effects of a firm’s opportunistic accounting and insolvency on society can be widespread and significant. This study divides a dataset of unlisted firms into four groups (large firms that have received external audits; small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that received external audits; SMES that did not receive external audits; private businesses that did not receive external audits) and analyzes whether there are differences in terms of the discretionary accruals between groups. This study also uses discrete time logit regression to determine if the use of discretionary accruals is predictive of whether unlisted firms would become insolvent. This study used several models (a modified Jones model, a Kothari model, and performance matching model by ROA group) to measure discretionary accruals, which was used as a proxy for earnings management. The results of our study showed that, in the one year prior to insolvency, discretionary accruals were largest among non-externally audited private firms, followed by those of non-externally audited SMEs, externally audited SMEs, and externally audited large firms. The discretionary accruals of non-insolvent firms were larger than those of insolvent firms from the period of one year to three years preceding insolvency, and this difference increased as insolvency approached. The discretionary accruals were shown to have the ability to predict whether or not firms would become insolvent in two to three years before the occurrence of insolvency, but they did not support prediction for one year before the occurrence of insolvency. The findings suggest that additional accounting information should be used together to predict insolvency for unlisted firms. Full article