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Economies, Volume 4, Issue 4 (December 2016)

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Research

Open AccessArticle The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on IIP and CPI in Emerging Countries
Economies 2016, 4(4), 20; doi:10.3390/economies4040020
Received: 31 July 2016 / Revised: 14 September 2016 / Accepted: 22 September 2016 / Published: 29 September 2016
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Abstract
In this paper, we investigate the effects of oil price shocks on the production and price level in five emerging countries through comparison with the United States, using a two-block structural VAR model of the global crude oil market proposed by Kilian and
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In this paper, we investigate the effects of oil price shocks on the production and price level in five emerging countries through comparison with the United States, using a two-block structural VAR model of the global crude oil market proposed by Kilian and Park (see International Economic, vol. 50, 2009, pp. 1267–1287). Our main finding is that the effect of oil price shocks on the index of the industrial production (IIP) and consumer price index (CPI) in emerging countries also depends on where the changes fundamentally come from (this is also the case for the United States). We also found that some emerging countries showed unique impulse response patterns, the shapes of which are different from those of the United States and there are differences in impulse response patterns among emerging countries. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Falling Oil Prices: Economic and Financial Implications)
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Open AccessArticle Breaking up Is Hard to Do: Why the Eurozone Will Survive
Economies 2016, 4(4), 21; doi:10.3390/economies4040021
Received: 7 May 2016 / Accepted: 26 September 2016 / Published: 3 October 2016
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Abstract
Since revelations of the Greek fiscal deficit in the fall of 2009, the breakup of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has moved from unthinkable to plausible. The debate over the future of the EMU has become increasingly relevant, as numerous efforts to
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Since revelations of the Greek fiscal deficit in the fall of 2009, the breakup of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has moved from unthinkable to plausible. The debate over the future of the EMU has become increasingly relevant, as numerous efforts to solve the Greek crisis have not been successful. Neither have basic competitiveness differences between countries in the core and periphery of the European Union been eliminated. Proposed solutions include development of a banking union, regulatory measures to monitor trade and capital imbalances, fiscal reforms on the part of countries in trouble, and centralized fiscal capacity on the part of the EMU itself to offset the liabilities of the indebted states. While the crisis seems to be contained, it is by no means solved. This leads to the question: “Will the euro survive?” We answer this question in the affirmative, but in doing so we argue that continuation of the EMU is different from the question of whether the EMU should have been created in the first place. Some reasons for continuation of the EMU were present at its creation; others have developed in a path‐dependent way as the Eurozone has evolved. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Breakpoint of the Euro Zone?)
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Open AccessArticle Technical Efficiency and Its Determinants of Rice Production in Cambodia
Economies 2016, 4(4), 22; doi:10.3390/economies4040022
Received: 31 July 2016 / Accepted: 27 September 2016 / Published: 3 October 2016
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Abstract
The present study aims to measure the technical efficiency and establish core factors affecting rice production in Cambodia. A four‐year dataset generated from the central government document “Profile on Economics and Social” of 25 entire provinces between 2012 and 2015 and the stochastic
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The present study aims to measure the technical efficiency and establish core factors affecting rice production in Cambodia. A four‐year dataset generated from the central government document “Profile on Economics and Social” of 25 entire provinces between 2012 and 2015 and the stochastic production frontier model (SFA) was applied. The results indicated that the level of output (quantity) of Cambodian rice production varied according to the different level of capital investment in agricultural machineries, total rice actual harvested area, and technical fertilizer application within provinces. Furthermore, evidence revealed that the overall mean efficiency of rice production is 78.4%, which implies that there is still room to further improve technical efficiency given the same level of inputs and technology. More importantly, the findings revealed that irrigation, production techniques and amount of agricultural supporting staff are the most important influencing factors of rice production’s technical efficiency in Cambodia. In conclusion, the present study strongly recommends the development of irrigation systems and good water management practices to be considered and bring about more effective actions by the central government as well as related agencies for improving rice production in Cambodia in addition to capital investment and improving technical skills of supporting staff and rural farmers. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economic Development in Southeast Asia)
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Open AccessArticle The Impact of Possible Migration Scenarios after ‘Brexit’ on the State Pension System
Economies 2016, 4(4), 23; doi:10.3390/economies4040023
Received: 12 July 2016 / Revised: 29 September 2016 / Accepted: 18 October 2016 / Published: 25 October 2016
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Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to explore the impacts of changes in migration flows—in particular, those resulting from possible migration policy changes after a UK exit (‘Brexit’) from the European Union (EU)—on the finances of the UK state pension system. We find
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The purpose of this paper is to explore the impacts of changes in migration flows—in particular, those resulting from possible migration policy changes after a UK exit (‘Brexit’) from the European Union (EU)—on the finances of the UK state pension system. We find that the aggregate effects of considered shocks to immigration associated with Brexit on the funding of UK state pensions are dwarfed by associated uncertainties, and by coincident cost increases due to population aging and (domestic) pension’s policy. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Long-Run Economic Impacts of International Migration)
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Open AccessArticle Have Sanctions Modified Iran’s Trade Policy? An Evidence of Asianization and De-Europeanization through the Gravity Model
Economies 2016, 4(4), 24; doi:10.3390/economies4040024
Received: 26 May 2016 / Revised: 16 October 2016 / Accepted: 22 October 2016 / Published: 28 October 2016
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Abstract
This study is an empirical attempt to find out whether under sanctions Iran’s trade direction has shifted away from Europe (trade policy of de-Europeanization) towards Asia (trade policy of Asianization). The analysis is conducted using a panel-gravity trade model to analyze bilateral trade
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This study is an empirical attempt to find out whether under sanctions Iran’s trade direction has shifted away from Europe (trade policy of de-Europeanization) towards Asia (trade policy of Asianization). The analysis is conducted using a panel-gravity trade model to analyze bilateral trade pattern between Iran and 50 countries from the EU and Asia during the period 2006–2013. To this end, the authors use an extended gravity model by adding new variables, including the index of Chinn–Ito (KAOPEN) as an indicator of financial openness, and the composite trade intensity (CTI) as an indicator of trade openness. Our findings reveal that the gravity equation fits the data reasonably well. The empirical evidence indicates a significant negative effect of sanctions on Iran–EU bilateral trade (by an average of 46.9%), while it has a positive impact on trade between Iran and the Asian countries (by an average of 85.2%). Overall, these findings confirm that the imposition of various sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear program has pushed the country’s foreign trade to reorient away from Europe towards Asia. Full article
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Open AccessArticle Stock Market and Sustainable Economic Growth in Nigeria
Economies 2016, 4(4), 25; doi:10.3390/economies4040025
Received: 14 August 2016 / Revised: 21 October 2016 / Accepted: 25 October 2016 / Published: 4 November 2016
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Abstract
This paper examines the relationship between stock market evolution and sustainable economic growth in Nigeria. The study employs Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)-bounds testing approach and a combined stock market indicators index to examine the relationship. The paper finds that, in the long run,
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This paper examines the relationship between stock market evolution and sustainable economic growth in Nigeria. The study employs Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)-bounds testing approach and a combined stock market indicators index to examine the relationship. The paper finds that, in the long run, stock markets have no positive and at best mixed effect on economic growth in Nigeria. This finding supports the numerous past studies, which have reported negative/mixed or inconclusive results on the effects of stock markets on economic growth. The paper, therefore, concludes that, there is the need for increasing financial deepening and the removal of bottlenecks in the financial sectors of the economy by providing further public and institutional education on the value of stock markets for economic development. Full article
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Open AccessArticle The Impact of Financial Development on Economic Growth in Nigeria: An ARDL Analysis
Economies 2016, 4(4), 26; doi:10.3390/economies4040026
Received: 3 August 2016 / Revised: 1 October 2016 / Accepted: 25 October 2016 / Published: 7 November 2016
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Abstract
This study empirically examines the relationship between financial intermediary development and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1981–2011 using the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration analysis. The results show that the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Nigeria
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This study empirically examines the relationship between financial intermediary development and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1981–2011 using the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration analysis. The results show that the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Nigeria is not significantly different from what has been observed generally in oil-dependent economies. The relationship between financial intermediary development and economic growth in Nigeria is found to be insignificantly negative in the long-run and significantly negative in the short-run. The results highlight the dominant role of the oil sector in economic activities in Nigeria. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Financial Reform and Economic Development)
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Open AccessArticle Does Financial Development Drive Private Investment in Ghana?
Economies 2016, 4(4), 27; doi:10.3390/economies4040027
Received: 5 May 2016 / Revised: 27 October 2016 / Accepted: 31 October 2016 / Published: 1 December 2016
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Abstract
There is ample evidence from economic growth literature that investment accelerates economic growth and development of developing countries, of which Ghana is not an exception. Based on this, recent growth and development policies in Ghana have focused more on encouraging private sector investment
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There is ample evidence from economic growth literature that investment accelerates economic growth and development of developing countries, of which Ghana is not an exception. Based on this, recent growth and development policies in Ghana have focused more on encouraging private sector investment through the development of the financial sector. This paper investigates the short- and long-run impact of financial development on private investment in Ghana for the years 1970–2014. Additionally, to find out whether the measurement of financial development matters for private investment, several indicators of financial development are used. The results, based on the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration, suggest that financial development has not been a key driver of private investment in the long run, while, in the short run, the effect of financial development on private investment depends on how financial development is measured. Given these results, policy makers should be circumspect regarding the choice of financial development indicator used as a policy instrument in the design and implementation of private investment policies for Ghana. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Financial Reform and Economic Development)
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Open AccessArticle Remittances, Development Level, and Long-Run Economic Growth
Economies 2016, 4(4), 28; doi:10.3390/economies4040028
Received: 13 June 2016 / Revised: 1 November 2016 / Accepted: 22 November 2016 / Published: 1 December 2016
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Abstract
This paper seeks to enrich the field of research on the topic of the impact of remittances on long-run economic growth. Using an unbalanced panel data covering a sample of 116 countries with different development levels over the period 1990–2014, we studied the
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This paper seeks to enrich the field of research on the topic of the impact of remittances on long-run economic growth. Using an unbalanced panel data covering a sample of 116 countries with different development levels over the period 1990–2014, we studied the interaction between remittances and the level of economic development, as well as its impact on long-run economic growth—because the impact of remittances could be influenced by the development level of the receiving countries. In parallel, we explored the hypothesis about diminishing a country’s capacity to use remittances for promoting long-run economic growth as the abundance of remittances increases. To control the endogeneity while estimating the impact of remittances on long-run economic growth, we used OLS (ordinary least squares) with FD (first differences) transformation and FE (fixed effects) approaches and other controls of long-run growth. Our results showed that in general remittances have a positive impact on long-run economic growth, but the impact differs based on the country’s economic development level and the abundance of remittances in the economy. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Long-Run Economic Impacts of International Migration)
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