Search for Articles:
Title / Keyword
Author / Affiliation / Email
Journal
Article Type
 
 
Advanced Search
 
Section
Special Issue
Volume
Issue
Number
Page
 
4.6
2.5
Journals
Atmosphere
Special Issues
Typhoon/Hurricane Dynamics and Prediction (2nd Edition)
share announcement

Typhoon/Hurricane Dynamics and Prediction (2nd Edition)

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Atmospheric Techniques, Instruments, and Modeling".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 12 March 2025 | Viewed by 5484

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Ching-Yuang Huang

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Central University, Taoyuan City 320, Taiwan
Interests: mesoscale modeling; typhoon dynamics and modeling; GNSS RO data assimilation
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Dr. Shu-Ya Chen

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
GPS Science and Application Research Center, National Central University, Taoyuan City 320, Taiwan
Interests: GNSS RO; data assimilation; numerical model prediction on severe weather
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Dr. Kao-Shen Chung

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Central University, Taoyuan City 320, Taiwan
Interests: data assimilation; radar meteorology; severe weather; quantitative precipitation forecast
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

This Special Issue is the second edition in a series of publications dedicated to “Typhoon/Hurricane Dynamics and Prediction” (https://www.mdpi.com/journal/atmosphere/special_issues/typhoon_hurricane_prediction).

The advancement of data assimilation has greatly enhanced the forecast skill of tropical cyclone (TC) prediction, mostly relying on the effective assimilation of remote sensing data. In particular, the recent attention paid to radar data assimilation, either regarding the measurement type (polarimetric or non-polarimetric) or assimilation strategy, has helped to further enhance our understanding of the internal structures of TCs, as well as the convective processes intimately influencing the predictability and sensitivity of specific TC forecasts. On the other hand, satellite data that provide significant coverage over entire TCs and their surrounding environment offer good prospects for the improvement of the synoptic-scale condition that largely controls the track of TCs over vast oceans. With a global coverage, the vertical high-resolution soundings of GNSS radio occultation (RO) measurements are able to elucidate the dim area in which few observations associated with the large-scale atmosphere of embedded TCs are retrievable. Recent data assimilation with GNSS RO observations (e.g., from FORMOTSAT-3 and FORMOSAT-7) has proven very encouraging, and is able to better predict the track and intensity of TCs. The multi-utilization of various remote sensing data, including satellite radiance data, has been essential to determining the optimal impacts of observations on typhoon/hurricane forecasts. However, these are not being adequately pursued at present due to limited resources and great challenges arising in the application of advanced data assimilation techniques employing ensemble Kalman filters and variational methods in various hybrid systems. However, we are anticipating great improvements in forecast skill due to recent advancements in data assimilation, and therefore a better in-depth understanding of typhoon/hurricane dynamics. We especially encourage potential contributors to present works addressing model initialization near topographical areas in which convective processes associated with TCs are significantly modulated, and thus those that increase the dynamic complexity of TC track behaviors. 

Dr. Ching-Yuang Huang
Dr. Shu-Ya Chen
Dr. Kao-Shen Chung
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Atmosphere is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • tropical cyclone
  • data assimilation
  • remote sensing
  • satellite radiance data
  • radar data
  • GNSS radio occultation
  • ensemble Kalman filters
  • hybrid systems

Benefits of Publishing in a Special Issue

  • Ease of navigation: Grouping papers by topic helps scholars navigate broad scope journals more efficiently.
  • Greater discoverability: Special Issues support the reach and impact of scientific research. Articles in Special Issues are more discoverable and cited more frequently.
  • Expansion of research network: Special Issues facilitate connections among authors, fostering scientific collaborations.
  • External promotion: Articles in Special Issues are often promoted through the journal's social media, increasing their visibility.
  • e-Book format: Special Issues with more than 10 articles can be published as dedicated e-books, ensuring wide and rapid dissemination.

Further information on MDPI's Special Issue polices can be found here.

Published Papers (6 papers)

Download All Papers
Order results
Result details
Show export options expand_more Show export options expand_less
Select all
Export citation of selected articles as:

Research

19 pages, 10069 KiB  
Article
Simulated Directional Wave Spectra of the Wind Sea and Swell under Typhoon Mangkhut
by Yu Yan, Mengxi Hu, Yugen Ni and Chunhua Qiu
Atmosphere 2024, 15(10), 1174; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15101174 - 30 Sep 2024
Viewed by 378
Abstract
A third-generation wave model is driven by the synthetic wind field combined with the revised Holland wind and surface wind product from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The temporal and spatial characteristics of the wind waves and swell during the typhoon [...] Read more.
A third-generation wave model is driven by the synthetic wind field combined with the revised Holland wind and surface wind product from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The temporal and spatial characteristics of the wind waves and swell during the typhoon are studied, as well as the responses of their wave energy spectra to the source terms. The results show that the typhoon waves have a more complicated asymmetric structure than the wind field, and the maximum significant wave height is always located on the right side of the direction along which the typhoon is moving, where wind waves are dominant, due to the extended fetch. The nonlinear wave–wave interaction helps to redistribute the energy of the wind seas at a high frequency to the remotely generated swells at a low frequency, ensuring that the typhoon wave’s energy spectrum remains unimodal. This process occurs in regions without extended fetch, and a similar continued downshift in frequency as the wave–wave interaction occurs for the wind input as well when the waves outrun the typhoon, due to the nonlinear coupling between the wind and growing swells. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Typhoon/Hurricane Dynamics and Prediction (2nd Edition))
►▼ Show Figures

Figure 1

27 pages, 14463 KiB  
Article
Numerical Investigation of Track and Intensity Evolution of Typhoon Doksuri (2023)
by Dieu-Hong Vu, Ching-Yuang Huang and Thi-Chinh Nguyen
Atmosphere 2024, 15(9), 1105; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15091105 - 11 Sep 2024
Viewed by 537
Abstract
This study utilized the WRF model to investigate the track evolution and rapid intensification (RI) of Typhoon Doksuri (2023) as it moved across the Luzon Strait and through the South China Sea (SCS). The simulation results indicate that Doksuri has a smaller track [...] Read more.
This study utilized the WRF model to investigate the track evolution and rapid intensification (RI) of Typhoon Doksuri (2023) as it moved across the Luzon Strait and through the South China Sea (SCS). The simulation results indicate that Doksuri has a smaller track sensitivity to the use of different physics schemes, while having a greater intensity sensitivity. Sensitivity numerical experiments with different physics schemes can well capture its northwestward movement in the first two days, but they predict less westward track deflection as the typhoon moves across the Luzon Strait and through the SCS. Moreover, all the experiments successfully simulated Doksuri’s RI, albeit with quite different rates and a time lag of 12 h. Among different combinations of physics schemes, there exists an optimal set of cumulus parameterization and cloud microphysics schemes for track and intensity predictions. Doksuri’s track changes as the typhoon moved across the Luzon Strait and through the SCS were influenced by the topographic effects of the terrain of the Philippines and Taiwan, to different extents. The track changes of Doksuri are explained by the wavenumber-one potential vorticity (PV) tendency budget from different physical processes, highlighting that the horizontal PV advection dominates the PV tendency throughout most of the simulation time due to the offset of vertical PV advection and differential diabatic heating. In addition, this study applies the extended Sawyer–Eliassen (SE) equation to compare the transverse circulations of the typhoon induced by various forcing sources. The SE solution indicates that radial inflow was largely driven in the lower-tropospheric vortex by strong diabatic heating, while being significantly enhanced in the lower boundary layer due to turbulent friction. All other physical forcing terms were relatively insignificant for the induced transverse circulation. The coordinated radial inflow at low levels may have led to the eyewall development in unbalanced dynamics. Intense diabatic heating thus was vital to the severe RI of Doksuri under a weak vertical wind shear. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Typhoon/Hurricane Dynamics and Prediction (2nd Edition))
►▼ Show Figures

Figure 1

19 pages, 10160 KiB  
Article
Performance Evaluation of TGFS Typhoon Track Forecasts over the Western North Pacific with Sensitivity Tests on Cumulus Parameterization
by Yu-Han Chen, Sheng-Hao Sha, Chang-Hung Lin, Ling-Feng Hsiao, Ching-Yuang Huang and Hung-Chi Kuo
Atmosphere 2024, 15(9), 1075; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15091075 - 5 Sep 2024
Viewed by 696
Abstract
This study employed the new generation Taiwan global forecast system (TGFS) to focus on its performance in forecasting the tracks of western North Pacific typhoons during 2022–2023. TGFS demonstrated better forecasting performance in typhoon track compared to central weather administration (CWA) GFS. For [...] Read more.
This study employed the new generation Taiwan global forecast system (TGFS) to focus on its performance in forecasting the tracks of western North Pacific typhoons during 2022–2023. TGFS demonstrated better forecasting performance in typhoon track compared to central weather administration (CWA) GFS. For forecasts with large track errors by TGFS at the 120th h, it was found that most of them originated during the early stages of typhoon development when the typhoons were of mild intensity. The tracks deviated predominantly towards the northeast and occasionally towards the southwest, which were speculated to be due to inadequate environmental steering guidance resulting from the failure to capture synoptic environmental features. The tracks could be corrected by replacing the original new simplified Arakawa–Schubert (NSAS) scheme with the new Tiedtke (NTDK) scheme to change the synoptic environmental field, not only for Typhoon Khanun, which occurred in the typhoon season of 2023, but also for Typhoon Bolaven, which occurred after the typhoon season, in October 2023, under atypical circulation characteristics over the western Pacific. The diagnosis of vorticity budget primarily analyzed the periods where divergence in typhoon tracks between control (CTRL) and NTDK experiments occurred. The different synoptic environmental fields in the NTDK experiment affected the wavenumber-1 vorticity distribution in the horizontal advection term, thereby enhancing the accuracy of typhoon translation velocity forecasts. This preliminary study suggests that utilizing the NTDK scheme might improve the forecasting skill of TGFS for typhoon tracks. To gain a more comprehensive understanding of the impact of NTDK on typhoon tracks, further examination for more typhoons is still in need. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Typhoon/Hurricane Dynamics and Prediction (2nd Edition))
►▼ Show Figures

Figure 1

23 pages, 27408 KiB  
Article
ECMWF Ensemble Forecasts of Six Tropical Cyclones That Formed during a Long-Lasting Rossby Wave Breaking Event in the Western North Pacific
by Russell L. Elsberry, Hsiao-Chung Tsai, Wei-Chia Chin and Timothy P. Marchok
Atmosphere 2024, 15(5), 610; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15050610 - 17 May 2024
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 910
Abstract
The ECMWF‘s ensemble (ECEPS) predictions are documented for the lifecycles of six tropical cyclones (TCs) that formed during a long-lasting Rossby wave breaking event in the western North Pacific. All six TC tracks started between 20° N and 25° N, and between 136° [...] Read more.
The ECMWF‘s ensemble (ECEPS) predictions are documented for the lifecycles of six tropical cyclones (TCs) that formed during a long-lasting Rossby wave breaking event in the western North Pacific. All six TC tracks started between 20° N and 25° N, and between 136° E and 160° E. All five typhoons recurved north of 30° N, and the three typhoons that did not make landfall had long tracks to 50° N and beyond. The ECEPS weighted mean vector motion track forecasts from pre-formation onward are quite accurate, with track forecast spreads that are primarily related to initial position uncertainties. The ECEPS intensity forecasts have been validated relative to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Working Best Track (WBT) intensities (when available). The key results for Tokage (11 W) were the ECEPS forecasts of the intensification to a peak intensity of 100 kt, and then a rapid decay as a cold-core cyclone. For Hinnamnor (12 W), the key result was the ECEPS intensity forecasts during the post-extratropical transition period when Hinnamnor was rapidly translating poleward through the Japan Sea. For Muifa (14 W), the key advantage of the ECEPS was that intensity guidance was provided for longer periods than the JTWC 5-day forecast. The most intriguing aspect of the ECEPS forecasts for post-Merbok (15 W) was its prediction of a transition to an intense, warm-core vortex after Merbok had moved beyond 50° N and was headed toward the Aleutian Islands. The most disappointing result was that the ECEPS over-predicted the slow intensification rate of Nanmadol (16 W) until the time-to-typhoon (T2TY), but then failed to predict the large rapid intensification (RI) following the T2TY. The tentative conclusion is that the ECEPS model‘s physics are not capable of predicting the inner-core spin-up rates when a small inner-core vortex is undergoing large RI. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Typhoon/Hurricane Dynamics and Prediction (2nd Edition))
►▼ Show Figures

Figure 1

23 pages, 19165 KiB  
Article
High Temporal Resolution Analyses with GOES-16 Atmospheric Motion Vectors of the Non-Rapid Intensification of Atlantic Pre-Bonnie (2022)
by Russell L. Elsberry, Joel W. Feldmeier, Hway-Jen Chen, Christopher S. Velden and Hsiao-Chung Tsai
Atmosphere 2024, 15(3), 353; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15030353 - 14 Mar 2024
Viewed by 920
Abstract
Four-dimensional COAMPS Dynamic Initialization (FCDI) analyses that include high-temporal- and high-spatial-resolution GOES-16 Atmospheric Motion Vector (AMV) datasets are utilized to understand and predict why pre-Bonnie (2022), designated as a Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC 2), did not undergo rapid intensification (RI) while passing along [...] Read more.
Four-dimensional COAMPS Dynamic Initialization (FCDI) analyses that include high-temporal- and high-spatial-resolution GOES-16 Atmospheric Motion Vector (AMV) datasets are utilized to understand and predict why pre-Bonnie (2022), designated as a Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC 2), did not undergo rapid intensification (RI) while passing along the coast of Venezuela during late June 2022. A tropical cyclone lifecycle-prediction model based on the ECMWF ensemble indicated that no RI should be expected for the trifurcation southern cluster of tracks along the coast, similar to PTC 2, but would likely occur for two other track clusters farther offshore. Displaying the GOES-16 mesodomain AMVs in 50 mb layers illustrates the outflow burst domes associated with the PTC 2 circulation well. The FCDI analyses forced by thousands of AMVs every 15 min document the 13,910 m wind-mass field responses and the subsequent 540 m wind field adjustments in the PTC 2 circulation. The long-lasting outflow burst domes on both 28 June and 29 June were mainly to the north of PTC 2, and the 13,910 m FCDI analyses document conditions over the PTC 2 which were not favorable for an RI event. The 540 m FCDI analyses demonstrated that the intensity was likely less than 35 kt because of the PTC 2 interactions with land. The FCDI analyses and two model forecasts initialized from the FCDI analyses document how the PTC 2 moved offshore to become Tropical Storm Bonnie; however, they reveal another cyclonic circulation farther west along the Venezuelan coast that has some of the characteristics of a Caribbean False Alarm event. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Typhoon/Hurricane Dynamics and Prediction (2nd Edition))
►▼ Show Figures

Figure 1

27 pages, 15488 KiB  
Article
Investigation on the Intensification of Supertyphoon Yutu (2018) Based on Symmetric Vortex Dynamics Using the Sawyer–Eliassen Equation
by Thi-Chinh Nguyen and Ching-Yuang Huang
Atmosphere 2023, 14(11), 1683; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14111683 - 13 Nov 2023
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1252
Abstract
This study used the revised Sawyer–Eliassen (SE) equation, taking the relaxed thermal wind balance into account, to chart the development of Supertyphoon Yutu (2018) based on symmetric vortex dynamics. The mean vortex and associated forcing sources for solving the SE equation were taken [...] Read more.
This study used the revised Sawyer–Eliassen (SE) equation, taking the relaxed thermal wind balance into account, to chart the development of Supertyphoon Yutu (2018) based on symmetric vortex dynamics. The mean vortex and associated forcing sources for solving the SE equation were taken from three-dimensional numerical simulations using the ocean-coupled HWRF. The SE solutions indicate that the induced transverse circulation is sensitive to the static stability of the mean vortex, which can be significantly underestimated when the static instability is greatly increased. The impacts on the SE solution, caused by the agradient imbalance and nonhydrostatics, were not significantly large in the troposphere. Moreover, the impact of numerical residue in the tangential wind tendency equation mainly occurred in the upper troposphere, below a height of 18 km, and near the lower eyewall. Furthermore, the structural misplaced change in the forcing source may have caused a more disorganized induced transverse circulation, whereas the collocated intensity change only resulted in a proportional enhancement during the same phase. During the rapid intensification of Yutu, the tangential-wind velocity tendency, caused by the revised SE solution, was close to the actual nonlinear tendency; however, the lowest boundary layer exhibited stronger turbulent friction. The mid- to upper-tropospheric vortex intensification inside of the eyewall and outside of the eyewall can mainly be attributed to the mean and asymmetric horizontal advection and vertical advection, respectively; conversely, most of the spindown that occurred in the eyewall was caused by the mean and asymmetric horizontal advection. At lower levels, the vortex intensification near the inner eyewall was mainly induced by the effects of asymmetric vertical advection. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Typhoon/Hurricane Dynamics and Prediction (2nd Edition))
►▼ Show Figures

Figure 1

Show export options expand_more Show export options expand_less
Select all
Export citation of selected articles as:
 
Displaying articles 1-6
Back to TopTop