Sea Level Rise and Related Hazards Assessment

A special issue of Journal of Marine Science and Engineering (ISSN 2077-1312). This special issue belongs to the section "Coastal Engineering".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 1 June 2025 | Viewed by 10250

Special Issue Editors


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Istituto Nazionale di Vulcanologia, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Rome, Italy
Interests: geodesy; geophysics; sea level; geosciences
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Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The global mean sea level is rising at a rate of about 4 mm per year and it is expected to rise by more than one meter by the end of this century, representing a hazard factor for many populations living in coastal plains and low-lying islands. Maritime cities, coastal infrastructures, heritage sites and natural areas are at risk of inundation in the next decades under the effects of the global warming. In addition, natural or human-induced land subsidence can locally accelerate the effects of sea level rise along specific continental and insular coasts, thus exacerbating land flooding.

Data produced during observations from space, the air and the ground provide high-accuracy data sets that support the realization of relative sea level rise projections and detailed flooding scenarios when in combination with climatic projections and high-resolution digital elevation models of the coastal zone.

Furthermore, new technological advances in data acquisition and the production of very high-resolution and high-accuracy data are very powerful tools for studying the effects of sea level rise and extreme events in coastal zones.

This Special Issue of The Journal of Marine Science and Engineering aims to summarize new insights and benefits that derive from the use of multiple data, focusing on global and relative sea level rise and its impacts along the coasts. Advancements in the methodologies, techniques and data processing are primarily expected in the following areas:

  • Sea level trends from space observations and tide gauge data;
  • Land uplift and subsidence detected from geodetic networks and InSAR data, to identify coastal zones more prone to accelerated sea level rise;
  • Impact of extreme marine events (storm surges and tsunamis) and flooding extents in coastal areas in sea level rise conditions;
  • Generation of very high-resolution and accuracy DEMs in coastal areas for flooding scenarios applications;
  • Impacts of sea level rise on coastal cities, infrastructures (e.g., harbors, tourism, etc.), agriculture, coastal erosion, heritage sites and natural areas;
  • Natural based and conventional coastal protection solutions to mitigate sea level rise in specific zones;
  • Any other application to sea surface dynamics and coastal studies.

Dr. Marco Anzidei
Dr. Tommaso Alberti
Guest Editors

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Keywords

  • sea level rise
  • vertical land movements
  • coastal flooding
  • extreme events
  • coastal erosion
  • coastal adaptation
  • coastal protection
  • coastline position
  • digital elevation models

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Published Papers (5 papers)

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Research

30 pages, 39898 KiB  
Article
Inundation Characteristics’ Prediction of Storm Surge under Relative Sea Level Rise Scenarios: A Case Study of Taizhou, Zhejiang Province
by Tangqi Zhao, Xiaomin Li, Suming Zhang, Qi Hou, Xuexue Du and Jie Zhang
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2024, 12(6), 1030; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse12061030 - 20 Jun 2024
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 835
Abstract
Storm surge is the most serious marine disaster in China, and the inundation characteristics of storm surge are the key indicators of disaster severity. Especially in the context of relative sea level rise (RSLR), it is very important to rapidly and accurately estimate [...] Read more.
Storm surge is the most serious marine disaster in China, and the inundation characteristics of storm surge are the key indicators of disaster severity. Especially in the context of relative sea level rise (RSLR), it is very important to rapidly and accurately estimate the inundation characteristics of storm surge for the risk assessment and emergency management of storm surge disasters. Taking Taizhou city, Zhejiang Province, as the study area, this paper constructed an RSLR scenario library considering absolute sea level rise, land subsidence and storm surge water increase. The scenario library includes 72 scenarios, consisting of a combination of four absolute sea level rise scenarios, three land subsidence scenarios, three timescales (2030, 2050 and 2100) and two storm surge water increase scenarios. Then, an improved passive inundation method was used to predict and analyze the inundation characteristics of storm surge under each scenario. This improved method combines the advantages of the accurate active inundation method and the rapid passive inundation method, and is suitable for rapid and accurate estimation of the storm surge inundation characteristics, which can meet the needs of a storm surge disaster risk assessment and emergency response. The prediction and analysis results show that a minor RSLR can also cause a large-scale inundation in coastal areas of Taizhou. When the value of RSLR exceeds the critical value (0.6 m), it may significantly increase the expansion of the inundation area of storm surge. At a relative sea level rise of 1.57 m (extreme scenario in 2100), the inland storm surge inundation of low-risk areas may become high-risk areas. Finally, the quantitative measures for preventing storm surge disasters were put forward according to the current situation of the coast in Taizhou. Without considering storm surge and superimposed general surge, the existing 20-year return period standard seawall can effectively protect against storm surge under various scenarios. In the case of maximum water increase, it is expected that effective protection will remain until 2030, but the standard of the seawall defense will need to be improved in 2050 and 2100. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Sea Level Rise and Related Hazards Assessment)
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19 pages, 32869 KiB  
Article
Past and Future Impacts of the Relative Sea Level Rise on the Seafront of Ancient Delos (Cyclades, Greece) and Flooding Scenarios by 2150
by Nikos Mourtzas and Eleni Kolaiti
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2024, 12(6), 870; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse12060870 - 24 May 2024
Viewed by 2022
Abstract
Sea level rise due to global warming is a continuing and, disappointingly, accelerating process which has already affected and will further impact coastal lowlands and the social and economic activities in these areas. Delos Island, situated in the middle of the Cyclades in [...] Read more.
Sea level rise due to global warming is a continuing and, disappointingly, accelerating process which has already affected and will further impact coastal lowlands and the social and economic activities in these areas. Delos Island, situated in the middle of the Cyclades in the Aegean Sea, was considered the most sacred of all islands in ancient Greek culture and was a trading hub for the entire eastern Mediterranean. Uninhabited since the 7th century AD, and consistently the focus of research and touristic attention, the island is designated as an archaeological site and inscribed on the UNESCO World Heritage List. Previous studies on the relative sea level (rsl) changes suggest a steadily rising rsl during the last 6300 years, starting from a sea level of −4.80 ± 0.20 m in the Late Neolithic. The seafront of the ancient city of Delos is subject to the effects of rsl rise, which have caused significant coastline retreat and exposure to the northerly winds and waves, whereas parts of the coastal lowland, where the remains of the ancient city lie, are inundated, forming extended wetlands. The future impacts of rsl rise on the seafront of ancient Delos are illustrated on very-high-resolution digital surface models, evaluating both the flooding risk under different climatic projections, as provided by the IPCC AR6 report, and the ongoing land subsidence, as recorded by GNSS data. An rsl rise ranging from 87 cm (SSP1-2.6 scenario) to 148 cm (SSP5-8.5 scenario) is anticipated by 2150, requiring both resilience strategies and adaptation solutions as well as mitigation policies to cope with the effects of climate change. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Sea Level Rise and Related Hazards Assessment)
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20 pages, 6603 KiB  
Article
Bayesian Network Analysis for Shoreline Dynamics, Coastal Water Quality, and Their Related Risks in the Venice Littoral Zone, Italy
by Hung Vuong Pham, Maria Katherina Dal Barco, Mohsen Pourmohammad Shahvar, Elisa Furlan, Andrea Critto and Silvia Torresan
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2024, 12(1), 139; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse12010139 - 10 Jan 2024
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 1955
Abstract
The coastal environment is vulnerable to natural hazards and human-induced stressors. The assessment and management of coastal risks have become a challenging task, due to many environmental and socio-economic risk factors together with the complex interactions that might arise through natural and human-induced [...] Read more.
The coastal environment is vulnerable to natural hazards and human-induced stressors. The assessment and management of coastal risks have become a challenging task, due to many environmental and socio-economic risk factors together with the complex interactions that might arise through natural and human-induced pressures. This work evaluates the combined effect of climate-related stressors on low-lying coastal areas by applying a multi-risk scenario analysis through a Bayesian Network (BN) approach for the Venice coast. Based on the available open-source and remote sensing data for detecting shoreline changes, the developed BN model was trained and validated with oceanographic variables for the 2015–2019 timeframe, allowing us to understand the dynamics of local-scale shoreline erosion and related water quality parameters. Three “what-if” scenarios were carried out to analyze the relationships between oceanographic boundary conditions, shoreline evolution, and water quality parameters. The results demonstrate that changes in sea surface height and significant wave height may significantly increase the probability of high-erosion and high-accretion states. Moreover, by altering the wave direction, the water quality variables show significant changes in the higher-risk class. The outcome of this study allowed us to identify current and future coastal risk scenarios, supporting local authorities in developing adaptation plans. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Sea Level Rise and Related Hazards Assessment)
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27 pages, 11397 KiB  
Article
The SAVEMEDCOASTS-2 webGIS: The Online Platform for Relative Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Scenarios up to 2100 for the Mediterranean Coasts
by Antonio Falciano, Marco Anzidei, Michele Greco, Maria Lucia Trivigno, Antonio Vecchio, Charalampos Georgiadis, Petros Patias, Michele Crosetto, Josè Navarro, Enrico Serpelloni, Cristiano Tolomei, Giovanni Martino, Giuseppe Mancino, Francesco Arbia, Christian Bignami and Fawzi Doumaz
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2023, 11(11), 2071; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11112071 - 30 Oct 2023
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2647
Abstract
Here we show the SAVEMEDCOASTS-2 web-based geographic information system (webGIS) that supports land planners and decision makers in considering the ongoing impacts of Relative Sea Level Rise (RSLR) when formulating and prioritizing climate-resilient adaptive pathways for the Mediterranean coasts. The webGIS was developed [...] Read more.
Here we show the SAVEMEDCOASTS-2 web-based geographic information system (webGIS) that supports land planners and decision makers in considering the ongoing impacts of Relative Sea Level Rise (RSLR) when formulating and prioritizing climate-resilient adaptive pathways for the Mediterranean coasts. The webGIS was developed within the framework of the SAVEMEDCOASTS and SAVEMEDCOASTS-2 projects, funded by the European Union, which respond to the need to protect people and assets from natural disasters along the Mediterranean coasts that are vulnerable to the combined effects of Sea Level Rise (SLR) and Vertical Land Movements (VLM). The geospatial data include available or new high-resolution Digital Terrain Models (DTM), bathymetric data, rates of VLM, and multi-temporal coastal flooding scenarios for 2030, 2050, and 2100 with respect to 2021, as a consequence of RSLR. The scenarios are derived from the 5th Assessment Report (AR5) provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and encompass different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) for climate projections. The webGIS reports RSLR scenarios that incorporate the temporary contribution of both the highest astronomical tides (HAT) and storm surges (SS), which intensify risks to the coastal infrastructure, local community, and environment. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Sea Level Rise and Related Hazards Assessment)
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20 pages, 8558 KiB  
Article
Relative Sea-Level Rise Projections and Flooding Scenarios for 2150 CE for the Island of Ustica (Southern Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy)
by Marco Anzidei, Daniele Trippanera, Alessandro Bosman, Franco Foresta Martin, Fawzi Doumaz, Antonio Vecchio, Enrico Serpelloni, Tommaso Alberti, Sante Francesco Rende and Michele Greco
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2023, 11(10), 2013; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11102013 - 19 Oct 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1407
Abstract
The island of Ustica (Italy) is constantly exposed to the effects of sea-level rise, which is threatening its coastal zone. With the aim of assessing the sea levels that are anticipated by 2150 CE under the climatic projections shown in the AR6 report [...] Read more.
The island of Ustica (Italy) is constantly exposed to the effects of sea-level rise, which is threatening its coastal zone. With the aim of assessing the sea levels that are anticipated by 2150 CE under the climatic projections shown in the AR6 report from the IPCC, a detailed evaluation of potential coastal flooding under different climatic scenarios and the ongoing land subsidence has been carried out for three coastal zones. Scenarios are based on the determination of the current coastline position, a high-resolution digital terrain and marine model, and the SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 climatic projections. Relative sea-level rise projections allowed the mapping of the potential inundated surfaces for 2030, 2050, 2100, and 2150. The results show rising sea levels for 2150, ranging from a minimum of 66 ± 40 cm (IPCC AR6 SSP2.6 scenario) to a maximum of 128 ± 52 cm (IPCC AR6 SSP8.5 scenario). In such conditions, considering the SSP8.5 scenario during storm surges with return times (RTs) of 1 and 100 years, the expected maximum wave run-up along the island may vary from 3 m (RT = 1) to 14 m (RT = 100), according to the coastal morphology. Our results show that adaptation and mitigation actions are required to protect the touristic and harbor installations of the island. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Sea Level Rise and Related Hazards Assessment)
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