Interannual Rainfall Variability and Anthropogenic Warming: Extreme Flood Events

Dear Colleagues,

This Special Issue has been initiated by a pressing demand following the increasingly frequent observation of extreme hydroclimatic phenomena occurring at mid-latitudes in regions subject to the oscillation of rainfall (http://climatorealist.neowordpress.fr/resonant-rainfall-oscillation/). These regions, which are under the influence of sea surface temperature anomalies at the high latitudes of the five subtropical gyres are (1) Southwestern North America, (2) Texas, (3) Southeastern North America, Northeastern North America, southern tip of Greenland, Europe, and Western–Central Asia, (4) Region of the Rio de la Plata, (5) Southwestern and Southeastern Australia, (6) Southeast Asia. These regions are characterized jointly by high interannual and low seasonal variabilities of precipitation. They are therefore naturally subjected to the alternation of interannual wet or dry periods. Over the last few decades, there has been an increase in the frequency of extreme events, either flooding caused by convective rains or episodes of drought and heat waves.

The genesis of heavy rains, which can reach tens of millimeters per hour, is reminiscent of orographic precipitation that occurs when warm and humid air masses meet cold mountainous formations (e.g., Mediterranean events in France). Such extreme events, sometimes with devastating hailstorms or extensive river flooding, have a considerable societal impact, especially when they occur in regions known to be non-flooding. Such areas have never experienced phenomena of such intensity and which are, moreover, exceedingly difficult to predict, even if only for a few hours in advance.

The objective of this research is to clarify the relationship between anthropogenic warming and the increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme flood events in regions subject to rainfall oscillation (in particular, the 5–10-year band exhibits a high amplitude). It can be inferred from observations that such events result from baroclinic instabilities of the atmosphere favored by positive sea surface temperature anomalies produced by Rossby waves at mid-latitudes of ocean gyres. In the absence of shear, these instabilities can lead to the formation of synoptic low-pressure systems, stimulated and guided by jet streams. The meteorological phenomena induced over continental regions can be all the more violent the greater the temperature difference between the warm and cold air masses that meet each other, which favors convective phenomena.

We will focus more particularly (but not exclusively) on the study of mechanisms and their modeling to (1) improve forecasting techniques and (2) quantify the anthropogenic impact.

Dr. Jean-Louis Pinault
Guest Editor

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• Anthropogenic warming
• Rainfall oscillation
• Subtropical ocean gyres
• Sea surface temperature anomalies
• Moist adiabatic lapse rate
• Baroclinic instabilities
• Cyclogenesis
• Occluded fronts