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Risk Analysis and Management in the Digital and Innovation Economy

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A special issue of Risks (ISSN 2227-9091).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (1 March 2023) | Viewed by 33251

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Special Issue Editor

Dr. Tatiana Kudryavtseva

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Guest Editor

Institute of Industrial Management, Economics and Trade, Graduate School of Industrial Economics, Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, 195251 St. Petersburg, Russia
Interests: economics; industrial and innovative clusters; digital bank; economic analysis

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The emergence of new technologies leads to structural changes in socioeconomic systems. In particular, these changes occur at regional, industrial, and business levels. At the regional level, these changes should be implemented by public authorities as part of the smart and sustainable development of territories. At the industrial level, these changes result in the development of Industry 4.0 in the form of new products, supply chains, business models, and technologies. Finally, at the business level, the emergence of these technologies leads to the transformation of business processes and the reshaping of their operations. All these changes lead to the emergence of new risks and requires the development of new methods for their assessment.

The importance of risk analysis and management in the financial sector and its impact on the implementation of different government projects and the operation of enterprises at all levels deserves special and particular attention, thus we also encourage the submission of papers in this direction.

This Special Issue is open to all types of papers dedicated to risk analysis and management in the digital and innovation economy, but empirical works reflecting qualitative and quantitative or mixed decisions are especially welcome.

Dr. Tatiana Kudryavtseva
Guest Editor

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Risks is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 1800 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

risk analysis
risk assessment
engineering economy
decision making
digital economy
industry 4.0
sustainable development
economic efficiency and social consequences
e-government
human-centered solutions
digital transformation of business
technology management

Published Papers (10 papers)

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Research

20 pages, 2904 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Developing a System for Monitoring Human Resource Risks in a Digital Economy

by Ivan Babkin, Valentina Pulyaeva, Irina Ivanova, Yulya Veys and Guljakhon Makhmudova

Risks 2023, 11(5), 82; https://doi.org/10.3390/risks11050082 - 27 Apr 2023

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1861

Abstract

Human resource (HR) risks are significant negative aspects of any organization. The main problem in the theory and practice of modern organizations is that there is no complex model and algorithm for managing HR risks. To define the essence of HR risks and basic approaches to their management, the authors conducted a survey of employees concerning the HR sphere. The authors used cluster and correlation–regression analysis to process the results of the survey conducted among employees about HR risks. Relying on general scientific research methods, data from open sources, including the review of scientific papers of foreign and national researchers and practitioners, and considering the opinions of the sociological survey respondents, the authors concluded that there is a need for carrying out close work with personnel to prevent conflicts in the working environment, increase the motivation for work, and involve the management team in regulating labor relationships. The scientific novelty of the study is that it considers the process of managing HR risks from a systemic perspective, while they are monitored based on the conceptual model suggested in the study. The models developed by the authors can be used in reality for managing HR risks faced by economic entities. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Risk Analysis and Management in the Digital and Innovation Economy)

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25 pages, 707 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Impact of Intellectual Capital on the Firm Performance of Russian Manufacturing Companies

by Angi Skhvediani, Anastasia Koklina, Tatiana Kudryavtseva and Diana Maksimenko

Risks 2023, 11(4), 76; https://doi.org/10.3390/risks11040076 - 13 Apr 2023

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 3317

Abstract

The manufacturing industry makes a significant contribution to Russia’s GDP and exports, but it faces problems that hinder its development. The aim of this study is to estimate the relationship between intellectual capital and performance indicators of Russian manufacturing companies. The study analysed a sample of 23,494 observations of Russian manufacturing companies for the 2017–2020 period. The value-added intellectual coefficient (VAIC) and its components were used to evaluate the impact of intellectual capital on firm performance using polled ordinary least squares, fixed, and random effects models. Intellectual capital significantly and positively affects the performance of companies in both structural and human terms—both through the integrated coefficient VAIC and in the context of individual components of intellectual capital. However, the impact of structural and human capital on performance indicators is significantly lower than the impact of capital employed. There is a distinct focus of enterprises on making profit through the use of company assets, while in the case of Russian manufacturing companies, the potential for profit generation from structural and human capital remains unfulfilled. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Risk Analysis and Management in the Digital and Innovation Economy)

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19 pages, 986 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Analysis of Yields and Their Determinants in the European Corporate Green Bond Market

by Sergei Grishunin, Alesya Bukreeva, Svetlana Suloeva and Ekaterina Burova

Risks 2023, 11(1), 14; https://doi.org/10.3390/risks11010014 - 6 Jan 2023

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 4389

Abstract

The green bond market helps to mobilize financial sources toward sustainable investments. Green bonds are similar to conventional bonds but are specifically designed to raise money to finance environmental projects. The feature of green bonds is the existence of greenium, or the lower yield compared to “conventional” bonds of the same risk. The relevance of the paper is underpinned by the mixed evidence on the existence of ‘greenium’, especially in corporate green bond markets; there has been limited research on the topic and a narrow focus on global, US, or Chinese green bond markets. Instead, the greenium in European debt markets remains underexplored. The objective of this study is to investigate the existence of greenium and its key determinants in European corporate debt capital markets, including the local markets of the United Kingdom (UK), France, Netherlands, and Germany. The sample included 3851 corporate bonds, both green and conventional ones, between 2007 and 2021 from 33 European countries. Linear regression was applied for the analysis. The results show that the climate corporate bonds in Europe are priced at a discount to the same-risk conventional corporate bonds. The magnitude of greenium is around 3 bps. Determinants of greenium include the presence of an ESG rating and belonging to the utility and financial industry. The remaining drivers of bond yields in the European corporate debt market are the credit quality (expressed by the level of credit rating), the coupon size, the bond tenor, the market liquidity, and macroeconomic variables (growth of gross domestic product and consumer price index). For the local corporate debt markets, our results are controversial. In all markets under consideration except for the UK and the Netherlands, we did not find sustainable evidence of greenium. The results of the research lead to a better understanding of the green bond market for investors, researchers, regulators, and potential issuing companies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Risk Analysis and Management in the Digital and Innovation Economy)

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20 pages, 1474 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Methodology for Economic Analysis of Highly Uncertain Innovative Projects of Improbability Type

by Aleksandr Babkin, Nadezhda Kvasha, Daniil Demidenko, Ekaterina Malevskaia-Malevich and Evgeny Voroshin

Risks 2023, 11(1), 3; https://doi.org/10.3390/risks11010003 - 20 Dec 2022

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2009

Abstract

Modern conditions for real investment are generally associated with increasing uncertainty, which is even more relevant when evaluating innovative projects. Current innovation analysis methods using a linear model are outdated. At the same time, an open interactive model of the innovation process, formed due to digitalization, allows to connect to innovations at almost any stage of their life cycle. The aim of the study is to form a methodology for the economic analysis of innovative projects implemented in the context of an open innovation model. To achieve the goal, the study defines approaches to innovation projects differentiation. The approach to the analysis methods selection is based on the decision matrix. The developed decision matrix allows to determine the location of each project as its element and to select analysis methods, considering the project’s uncertainty characteristics. The logic of the analysis methods transformation under the influence of a changing uncertainty level determines the combination of the fuzzy-set approach and the concept of real options. The implementation of the project analysis algorithm leads to the choice of an appropriate method for evaluating effectiveness and ensures that the flexible risk response concept under conditions of improbable uncertainty is taken into account when implementing the option model. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Risk Analysis and Management in the Digital and Innovation Economy)

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15 pages, 604 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Role of Emotions and Knowledge on Preference for Uncertainty: Follow Your Heart but Listen to Your Brain!

by Tânia Saraiva and Tiago Cruz Gonçalves

Risks 2023, 11(1), 2; https://doi.org/10.3390/risks11010002 - 20 Dec 2022

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2132

Abstract

This paper analyzes the joint association of emotions and knowledge in decision-making under uncertainty on a TV game show setting. The objective of this research is to understand the impact of emotions and knowledge on the preference for uncertainty (PU), which have mostly been investigated separately in Economics and Psychology until now. We examine the preference for uncertainty, proxied by a preference for gambling against a sure payoff, in 59 contestants in the TV game show “JOKER”. The data used contain individuals’ characteristics, as well as the decisions regarding the game, including the choice to carry on playing or accept a sure payoff, the level of knowledge of the topic, and the emotions experienced by the contestant. The methodology adopted includes a bivariate association between PU and knowledge and emotions, respectively. Additionally, we test a multivariate association using a Classification and Regression Tree (CART) method, which is suited for a complex nonlinear decision process that robustly mimics human decision-making. We find that preference for uncertainty increases when the contestants have a full domain or total absence of knowledge. Our results suggest, also, that emotions are the factor that only determines the preference for uncertainty when contestants have a restricted level of knowledge. Our results are robust across different proxies for knowledge and emotions and for different methodological thresholds. Results matter for investors, regulators, and policymakers, since it provides novel insights about the relative impact of knowledge and emotional status on risk behavior in general. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Risk Analysis and Management in the Digital and Innovation Economy)

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12 pages, 534 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Financial Risk and Profitability Management in Russian Insurance Companies in the Context of Digitalization

by Sergey Viktorovich Ilkevich, Ekaterina Yevgenievna Listopad, Natalya Vladimirovna Malinovskaya, Polina Petrovna Rostovtseva, Nataliya Nikolaevna Drobysheva and Andrei Viktorovich Borisov

Risks 2022, 10(11), 214; https://doi.org/10.3390/risks10110214 - 11 Nov 2022

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2710

Abstract

The dynamics of the financial reliability of insurers show rather unstable and often unfavorable trends, which indicate an increase in the risks of their financial insecurity and requires searching for reserves to improve their financial condition in the context of digitalization. The aim of the present research is to develop approaches for managing financial risks and profitability in Russian insurance companies in the context of digitalization. Structurally, the study consisted of a comprehensive analysis of the insurance market in the Russian Federation, as well as an identification of the components of the risk management process of insurance companies in the context of digitalization. Documents containing key features of the risk management system were selected for the study. We determined that to optimize the structure of the insurance portfolio, the insurer must regulate its portfolio by increasing the share of insurance receipts for personal insurance, which is highly profitable but occupies a meager share in the insurance portfolio. To do this, it is necessary to carry out active work to expand the insurance field, in particular, in relation to voluntary personal insurance, attracting a significant number of policyholders by conducting explanatory mass work using advertising events and agency-broker networks regarding the need and effectiveness of such insurance. Further research prospects should include proposals for replenishing the insurance portfolio with new types of personal insurance, making adjustments to the tariff policy of insurers for all types of voluntary personal insurance, and determining optimal tariffs. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Risk Analysis and Management in the Digital and Innovation Economy)

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10 pages, 856 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Understanding of Macro Factors That Affect Yield of Government Bonds

by Ekaterina Koroleva and Maxim Kopeykin

Risks 2022, 10(8), 166; https://doi.org/10.3390/risks10080166 - 18 Aug 2022

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 5756

Abstract

Government bonds are one of the safest and most attractive instruments in the investment portfolio for private investors and investment funds. Although bonds are perceived as an alternative to bank deposits, a number of macroeconomic factors influence their yield. The goal of the research is to investigate the relationship between macroeconomic factors and the yield of government bonds. We use regression models on a dataset of 22 countries with post-industrial economics for ten years. The main criteria for selecting countries are membership in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and inclusion in the Top-25 countries on the competitiveness index. The results revealed a negative association between the yield of government bonds and gold. Moreover, we indicate a positive association between the yield of government bonds and the following indicators—inflation, oil prices, and GDP per capita. In the case of the influence of population savings and the uncertainty index, we obtain inconclusive results. The study contributes to ongoing research in the field of financial management with respect to investigating determinants of the yield of government bonds. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Risk Analysis and Management in the Digital and Innovation Economy)

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18 pages, 1826 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Assessing the Market Risk on the Government Debt of Kazakhstan and Bulgaria in Conditions of Turbulence

by Olga Em, Georgi Georgiev, Sergey Radukanov and Mariana Petrova

Risks 2022, 10(5), 93; https://doi.org/10.3390/risks10050093 - 28 Apr 2022

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 2442

Abstract

The purpose of this publication is to quantify and compare the market risk on the external government debt of Kazakhstan and Bulgaria in the conditions of COVID-19, the emerging energy crisis, and the coup attempt in the first country. In particular, the authors invest the market risk of sovereign bonds issued on global financial markets. Market risk is assessed both as a single issue and at a portfolio level using the Value-at-risk approach. Sixteen samples with historical observations of all issues of Kazakhstan’s and Bulgarian Sovereign Bonds issued on the international financial markets were formed. The duration method was used in the calculation of Delta normal bond VaR and CVaR. It was found that with the same credit rating, similar portfolio duration levels, similar GDP per capita, Debt (% of GDP), and Debt Per Capita, the market risk on their portfolio differed significantly. The comparison of risk levels between the two portfolios was made by six indicators–two indicators measuring linearly the sensitivity of bond prices to changes in market interest rates (Weighted average Macaulay duration and Weighted average modified duration) and four downside indicators (Undiversified VaR, Diversified VaR, Undiversified CVaR, amd Diversified CVaR). The return/risk performance of both portfolios was assessed by the Sharpe ratio in three variants (SR Undiversified VaR, SR Diversified VaR, and SR Diversified CVaR). When evaluating the bond portfolio VaR and CVaR, a practical version of the Duration method was proposed, which allows the use of an unlimited number of assets, taking into account the correlations between yield returns and historical price volatility. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Risk Analysis and Management in the Digital and Innovation Economy)

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19 pages, 782 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Trust in and Risk of Technology in Organizational Digitalization

by Andrea Bencsik, Dávid Máté Hargitai and Anastasia Kulachinskaya

Risks 2022, 10(5), 90; https://doi.org/10.3390/risks10050090 - 20 Apr 2022

Cited by 5 | Viewed by 4327

Abstract

Organizational transformation for digitalization is a daily challenge for organizations. Successful change can be defined as the combined result of a number of factors, in which the attitude, trust and/or distrust of employees towards technology is of paramount importance. The aim of this study was to explore which factors most influence employees’ trust in technology and how the risk they pose can be mitigated. The quantitative research analyzed 473 respondents (Smart PLS3, using SEM model) and came to the following conclusions. Employees’ trust in technology depends primarily on the supportive role of management, and to a lesser extent on the digital readiness of the company and the training provided in the organization. The supportive role of management is a key element in the model, as it affects trust not only in a direct way, but also indirectly, through several pathways in the model. This means that the supportive role of leadership is clearly a decisive influence and its importance helps to assess the risk of trust or lack of trust. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Risk Analysis and Management in the Digital and Innovation Economy)

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13 pages, 1411 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Increasing Importance of Risk Management in the Context of Solid Waste Sphere Reforming in Russian Regions

by Viktoria Degtereva, Maria Liubarskaia, Viktoria Merkusheva and Alexey Artemiev

Risks 2022, 10(4), 79; https://doi.org/10.3390/risks10040079 - 8 Apr 2022

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2274

Abstract

This article analyzes the risk factors influencing the achievement of solid waste sphere reforming goals in Russia. The given arguments present the current state of the reform as not very effective from an economic, environmental, and social perspective. The authors identify four groups of risk factors and put forward, as a critical condition for successful reform, the availability of reliable information, as well as risk management incorporated in the decision-making process. The basis for the research execution was the information from the regional solid waste sphere Master Plans and expert opinions on the readiness to achieve the reform goal regarding 100% MSW sorting based on the staff performance, public awareness, technology availability, and tariff validity assessments. The authors use a decision tree method and MSW sorting system development scenarios to provide the pessimistic and optimistic evaluation on the potential for fulfilling the reform tasks. The conclusions indicate the unattainability of the goals set by the Russian authorities for MSW sorting by 2030. The authors propose to change the status of risk factors through the implementation of certain measures for the transition from a negative to a positive scenario of reforming and to set the realistic goals for MSW sorting in Russia. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Risk Analysis and Management in the Digital and Innovation Economy)

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