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  • Review
  • Open Access

17 November 2020

Seven-Layer Model in Complex Networks Link Prediction: A Survey

and
1
College of Computer Science and Technology, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou 310023, China
2
College of Applied Science, Jiangxi university of Science and Technology, Ganzhou 341000, China
3
College of Science, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou 310023, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Abstract

Link prediction is the most basic and essential problem in complex networks. This study analyzes the observed topological, time, attributive, label, weight, directional, and symbolic features and auxiliary information to find the lack of connection and predict the future possible connection. For discussion and analysis of the evolution of the network, the network model is of great significance. In the past two decades, link prediction has attracted extensive attention from experts in various fields, who have published numerous high-level papers, but few combine interdisciplinary characteristics. This survey analyzes and discusses the existing link prediction methods. The idea of stratification is introduced into the classification system of link prediction for the first time and proposes the design idea of a seven-layer model, namely the network, metadata, feature classification, selection input, processing, selection, and output layers. Among them, the processing layer divides link prediction methods into similarity-based, probabilistic, likelihood, supervised learning, semi-supervised learning, unsupervised learning, and reinforcement learning methods. The input features, evaluation metrics, complex analysis, experimental comparisons, relative merits, common dataset and open-source implementations for each link prediction method are then discussed in detail. Through analysis and comparison, we found that the link prediction method based on graph structure features has better prediction performance. Finally, the future development direction of link prediction in complex networks is discussed.

1. Introduction

Networks comprise a series of nodes and edges and can describe many systems in the real world. Nodes usually represent entities in the system, and links represent relationships or activities between entities. For example, if a node represents a person and an edge represents an interaction between two nodes, it can form a social network reflecting interpersonal relationships. If the nodes represent cities and the edges represent railways between cities, we can build a railroad network, reflecting the status of traffic routes. Examples of this can be seen everywhere. Therefore, the research of network science has attracted the attention of an increasing number of experts. As an important research direction in network science, link prediction can use existing network information to predict lost and new links that might be deleted or added in the future. It can be used in a recommendation system to help people find new partners or potential friends and provide products of interest in online shopping. It can also be used to infer the complete network structure and better understand the evolution of the network.
Between 1999 and 2020, engineering scientists, computer scientists, biochemist, telecommunications, biologists, geneticists, and environment scientists have made many attempts to solve the link prediction problem (Figure 1). Figure 2 shows the total number of published papers searched on the web of science with the topic of link prediction between 1999 and 2020. An increasing number of articles focus on link prediction, with thousands written every year on the subject. Although from 1999 to 2020, the number of papers published on link prediction keeps increasing every year, with 37,279 papers, few are interdisciplinary papers, especially review papers. Figure 3 shows that it was less than 5%. As shown in Figure 4, only 15% of multidisciplinary link prediction papers have been published from 1999 to 2020. Among them, 15,558 were from computer multidisciplinary, 1244 were from materials science multidisciplinary, 1053 were from geosciences multidisciplinary, and 666 were from physics multidisciplinary. The above data analysis shows that there are few review papers on interdisciplinary link prediction.
Figure 1. Research area of SCI papers published on link prediction.
Figure 2. The number of papers published on link prediction.
Figure 3. Type of SCI papers published on link prediction.
Figure 4. Number of interdisciplinary papers on link prediction.
According to cited frequency, from 1999 to 2020, some excellent research reviews of link prediction were published. Liben-Nowell et al. [1] published a seminal review paper in 2007, receiving around 5 thousand citations at the mid of 2020 on baidu academic. This study proposes a link prediction method based on the proximity measure of nodes in co-authorship networks. Lü et al. [2] also published a review paper, obtaining around 2000 citations. The paper reviews the research progress of link prediction methods in recent years, including random walk approaches and maximum likelihood approaches. In 2019, Shang et al. [3] divided link prediction methods into traditional link prediction methods and link prediction methods based on tree networks. Although these articles have received some attention, they only use physical methods to analyze the link prediction problem, not informatics methods. That is to say, they are analyzed from the perspective of feature extraction rather than from the perspective of feature learning.
Hasan et al. [4] published a review paper in 2011, receiving around 400 citations at the mid of 2020 on baidu academic and considered three types of models for social networks, namely no-bayesian models, probabilistic approaches, and linear algebraic approach. Wang and Wang [5] published a paper in 2015, obtaining around 200 citations, proposing link prediction approaches based on learning and topology. This study analyzed in detail link prediction from the perspective of physics and informatics. Although the above paper is valuable and meaningful for link prediction research, they lack the research on the latest link prediction technology, especially the most popular deep learning link prediction technology based on graph features. In 2020, Daud et al. [6] published a more comprehensive review paper, involving the classification and application of link prediction, but only focuses on social networks. Furthermore, most research results are for static networks, and the review of link prediction for dynamic and heterogeneous networks is few. However, the real network was complicated, not only static networks. Currently, we need a comprehensive review paper, focusing on the latest link prediction techniques including link prediction methods to solve different networks.
To compensate for the deficiencies of existing review papers, this study provides a systematic overview of link prediction from static to dynamic networks, from homogeneous to heterogeneous networks, and from unsigned to signed networks. First, it formally defines link prediction. The hierarchical design idea is introduced into the link prediction classification system from the perspective of informatics and physics. The hierarchical model consists of seven layers, namely the network, metadata, feature classification, selection input, processing, selection, and output layers. Then, link prediction techniques commonly used in various fields are discussed from two parts and seven aspects. The two aspects include feature extraction and feature learning methods. The seven aspects refer to similarity-based, probabilistic, likelihood, unsupervised learning, semi-supervised learning, supervised learning, and reinforcement learning methods. These methods include many classic and up-to-date link prediction techniques. Algorithm complexity, input feature, relative merits, common dataset and experimental comparison are also described. Finally, based on the summary of existing research results, the future research direction is proposed.
The organizational structure of this paper is as follows. In Section 2, we define link prediction. Section 3 proposes the seven-layer model, explaining the specific functions of each layer. The classical and up-to-date link prediction approaches used in various fields are introduced and classified. Section 4 discusses the input feature of common link prediction methods and analyzes the complexity of the algorithm. Section 5 introduces evaluating metrics, and in Section 6, we summarize the open-source implementation for the common link prediction methods. In Section 7, we compare the experiments and advantages of the link prediction algorithms involved in this article. At the same times, we provide common dataset. Finally, we summarize the future development direction of link prediction.

2. Problem Formulation

The formal definition of the link prediction problem is discussed below. In the network G(V,E,T,W), V represents the set of nodes, E shows the set of edge and weight set W at time T. vi (i = 1,2, …, n) is the union of different node sets, Ej (j = 1,2, …, m) is the union of different edges sets, Tk (k = 1,2, …, u) is the union of different time sets, and Wz (z = 1,2, …, v) is the union of different weight sets. Link prediction must output a list of edges and weight not existing in G(t0, ti), but it was predicted to show up in the network G(tj) for t0 < ti < tj. If i > 1 or j > 1, it means that the nodes and edges in the network are of different types, which we call a heterogeneous network. Otherwise, it is a homogeneous network.

5. Evaluating Metrics

The performance evaluation of link prediction in complex networks is critical in the research of link prediction models. Common evaluation indicators include AUC and precision, which measure the performance of link prediction algorithms at different levels. Among them, AUC is the most used evaluation index and can measure the performance of the prediction algorithm on the whole. The precision only focuses on the prediction accuracy of unknown edges with the highest prediction scores.
  • AUC
As one of the methods to measure the overall predictive structure model, AUC has the advantages of global and accuracy. It can be understood as the probability that the score value of the edge in the test set is higher than the score value of the randomly selected non-edge, that is, each time the test set is compared with the randomly selected non-existent edge. If the value of the edge in the test set is greater than the score value of the non-existent edge, add 1 point. If the two scores are equal, we add 0.5. It compares independently n times. If the score of the edge in the test set is greater than the score of the non-existent edge by n′ times, and there are n″ times when the two points are equal, the AUC value is defined as follows:
AUC   =   n + 0.5   n n .
Obviously, if all the scores are randomly generated, then AUC = 0.5, so the degree of AUC greater than 0.5 measures how accurate the algorithm is than the randomly selected method.
2.
Precision
Precision represents the accuracy index of link prediction. It refers to selecting the top L positions after the unknown edge set is sorted in descending order of score. If m edges belong to the test set, precision can be expressed as:
Precision   =   m L .

6. A Summary of Open-Source Implementations

This part summarizes the source code of the above common link prediction methods to avoid the duplication of research and improve the efficiency of research (Table 3).
Table 3. A summary of open-source implementations.

8. Future Directions

In the last two decades, experts from computer sciences, physics, biology, and other disciplines in the field of link prediction research have produced many different research results according to their discipline characteristics. These results promote the development of link prediction in theory and solve many practical problems. Some challenging issues raised in the past have been advanced to varying degrees. There will be more extensive attempts in the future, of which we list seven possible research directions.
1.
Link prediction for complex type networks
Existing research is imperfect, opening the opportunity to explore how to make link predictions in complex network structures, such as multiple layer networks, interdependent networks, and hypernetworks.
2.
Personal privacy protection
User privacy protection is an unavoidable problem in practical applications. How to obtain accurate prediction effects without compromising user privacy is also a problem worthy of study.
3.
Interpretability
Link prediction has many practical applications, making it critical to explain the prediction results. In medicine, such interpretability is essential in translating computer experiments into clinical applications.
4.
Combination
As mentioned above, many existing methods can work together. How to fully exploit the advantages of each method and combine them should be solved.
5.
Scalability and parallelization
In the era of big data, large social networks typically have millions of nodes and edges. Therefore, designing an extensible model with linear time complexity becomes critical. Furthermore, because the nodes and edges of a graph are interconnected, it is often necessary to model it in its entirety, highlighting the need for parallel computation.
6.
Interdisciplinary
Link prediction has attracted the attention of experts in various fields. Interdisciplinary crossing brings both opportunities and challenges. Domain knowledge is used to solve specific problems, but cross-integration domain knowledge could make the model design more difficult.
7.
New evaluation methods
Exploring new evaluation criteria is also an important issue that needs to be solved in future work [96]. Using the diffusion process in dynamic networks to evaluate link prediction methods is a promising research direction in the future [97].

9. Summary

Link prediction in complex networks has received much attention from experts in various fields. This paper defined link prediction and proposed a seven-layer model to classify link prediction methods. These methods cover many classic and latest link prediction techniques, namely the similarity-based, probabilistic, likelihood, unsupervised learning, semi-supervised learning, supervised learning, and reinforcement learning methods. Furthermore, the evaluating metrics, input features, complexity, experimental comparisons, relative merits, common dataset, and open-source implementation are analyzed in detail. Through feature analysis and experimental comparison, we found that the link prediction method based on graph structure features is better than other link prediction methods. Finally, future directions and challenges are addressed.

Author Contributions

H.W. was mainly responsible for the idea of the paper, the writing of the manuscript. Z.L. was responsible for the design of the overall structure of the paper and the analysis of related research progress. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Funding

This research is supported in part by Special Funding of “the Belt and Road” International Cooperation of Zhejiang Province (2015C04005).

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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