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Article

Possible Roles of Permafrost Melting, Atmospheric Transport, and Solar Irradiance in the Development of Major Coronavirus and Influenza Pandemics

by
Anne M. Hofmeister
1,*,
James M. Seckler
2 and
Genevieve M. Criss
3
1
Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Washington University, St. Louis, MO 63130, USA
2
Department of Biomedical Engineering, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH 44106, USA
3
Webster Central School District, Webster, NY 14526, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18(6), 3055; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18063055
Submission received: 31 January 2021 / Revised: 10 March 2021 / Accepted: 12 March 2021 / Published: 16 March 2021
(This article belongs to the Collection Outbreak of a Novel Coronavirus: A Global Health Threat)

Abstract

Major pandemics involving respiratory viruses develop semi-regularly and require a large flux of novel viruses, yet their origination is equivocal. This paper explores how natural processes could give rise to this puzzling combination of characteristics. Our model is based on available data regarding the emergence of historic influenzas, early COVID-19 cases and spreading, the microbiome of permafrost, long-distance airborne transport of viruses reaching stratospheric levels, ultraviolet immunosuppression, sunlight variations, weather patterns, Arctic thawing, and global warming. Atmospheric conveyance is supported by hemispheric distribution disparities, ties of COVID-19 cases to air pollution particulate concentrations, and contemporaneous animal infections. The following sequence is proposed: (1) virus emergence after hot Arctic summers, predominantly near solar irradiance maxima or involving wildfires, indicates release of large amounts of ancient viruses during extensive permafrost melting, which are then incorporated in autumn polar air circulation, where cold storage and little sunlight permit survival. (2) Pandemics onset in winter to spring at rather few locations: from climate data on Wuhan, emergence occurs where the North Polar Jet stream hovers while intersecting warmer, moist air, producing rain which deposits particulates with the viral harvest on a vulnerable human population. (3) Spring and summer increases in COVID-19 cases link to high solar irradiance, implicating ultraviolet immune suppression as one means of amplification. (4) Viruses multiplied by infected humans at close range being incorporated in atmospheric circulation explains rapid global spread, periodic case surges (waves), and multi-year durations. Pollution and wind geography affect uptake and re-distribution. Our model can be tested, e.g., against permafrost stored in laboratories as well as Artic air samples, and suggests mitigating actions.
Keywords: COVID-19; historic influenzas; permafrost melting; pandemic emergence; climate and disease; ultraviolet immunosuppression; environment and health; airborne transport COVID-19; historic influenzas; permafrost melting; pandemic emergence; climate and disease; ultraviolet immunosuppression; environment and health; airborne transport

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MDPI and ACS Style

Hofmeister, A.M.; Seckler, J.M.; Criss, G.M. Possible Roles of Permafrost Melting, Atmospheric Transport, and Solar Irradiance in the Development of Major Coronavirus and Influenza Pandemics. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 3055. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18063055

AMA Style

Hofmeister AM, Seckler JM, Criss GM. Possible Roles of Permafrost Melting, Atmospheric Transport, and Solar Irradiance in the Development of Major Coronavirus and Influenza Pandemics. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2021; 18(6):3055. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18063055

Chicago/Turabian Style

Hofmeister, Anne M., James M. Seckler, and Genevieve M. Criss. 2021. "Possible Roles of Permafrost Melting, Atmospheric Transport, and Solar Irradiance in the Development of Major Coronavirus and Influenza Pandemics" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 6: 3055. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18063055

APA Style

Hofmeister, A. M., Seckler, J. M., & Criss, G. M. (2021). Possible Roles of Permafrost Melting, Atmospheric Transport, and Solar Irradiance in the Development of Major Coronavirus and Influenza Pandemics. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(6), 3055. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18063055

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