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Article

Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Burden and Its Attributable Risk Factors in China: Estimates and Forecasts from 1990 to 2050

by
Ruhao Zhang
1,
Yifei He
1,
Bincai Wei
1,
Yongbo Lu
2,
Jingya Zhang
2,
Ning Zhang
2,
Rongxin He
3,
Hao Xue
4,* and
Bin Zhu
1,*
1
School of Public Health and Emergency Management, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China
2
School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China
3
Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Haidian District, Beijing 100084, China
4
Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2023, 20(4), 2926; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20042926
Submission received: 6 December 2022 / Revised: 5 February 2023 / Accepted: 6 February 2023 / Published: 8 February 2023
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Chronic Diseases Burden and Risk Factors: What Policy Makers Need to Know?)
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Abstract

Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is an uncommon and aggressive malignant head and neck cancer, which is highly prevalent in southern and southwestern provinces in China. The aim of this study was to examine the disease burden and risk factors of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China from 1990 to 2019 and to predict the incidence trends from 2020 to 2049. All data were extracted from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort (APC) models were chosen to analyze prevalence trends. The temporal trends and age distribution of risk factors were also analyzed descriptively. Bayesian APC models were used to predict the prevalence from 2020 to 2049. The results indicate a higher disease burden in men and older adults. Their attributable risk factors are smoking, occupational exposure to formaldehyde, and alcohol use. We predict that the incidence will be on the rise in all age groups between 2020 and 2049, with the highest incidence in people aged 70 to 89 years. In 2049, the incidence rate is expected to reach 13.39 per 100,000 (50–54 years), 16.43 (55–59 years), 17.26 (60–64 years), 18.02 (65–69 years), 18.55 (70–74 years), 18.39 (75–79 years), 19.95 (80–84 years), 23.07 (85–89 years), 13.70 (90–94 years), and 6.68 (95+ years). The findings of this study might deserve consideration in China’s NPC prevention and control policy design.
Keywords: nasopharyngeal carcinoma; joinpoint regression; GBD study; risk factors; age-period-cohort model; prediction; burden of diseases nasopharyngeal carcinoma; joinpoint regression; GBD study; risk factors; age-period-cohort model; prediction; burden of diseases

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MDPI and ACS Style

Zhang, R.; He, Y.; Wei, B.; Lu, Y.; Zhang, J.; Zhang, N.; He, R.; Xue, H.; Zhu, B. Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Burden and Its Attributable Risk Factors in China: Estimates and Forecasts from 1990 to 2050. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2023, 20, 2926. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20042926

AMA Style

Zhang R, He Y, Wei B, Lu Y, Zhang J, Zhang N, He R, Xue H, Zhu B. Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Burden and Its Attributable Risk Factors in China: Estimates and Forecasts from 1990 to 2050. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2023; 20(4):2926. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20042926

Chicago/Turabian Style

Zhang, Ruhao, Yifei He, Bincai Wei, Yongbo Lu, Jingya Zhang, Ning Zhang, Rongxin He, Hao Xue, and Bin Zhu. 2023. "Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Burden and Its Attributable Risk Factors in China: Estimates and Forecasts from 1990 to 2050" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 20, no. 4: 2926. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20042926

APA Style

Zhang, R., He, Y., Wei, B., Lu, Y., Zhang, J., Zhang, N., He, R., Xue, H., & Zhu, B. (2023). Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Burden and Its Attributable Risk Factors in China: Estimates and Forecasts from 1990 to 2050. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 20(4), 2926. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20042926

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