The Change of Sources of Growth and Sustainable Development in China: Based on the Extended EKC Explanation

This paper extends the “sources of growth” explanation for the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) proposed by Copeland and Taylor in a concise theoretical framework, that is, when the sources of growth are transformed from physical capital and labor to human capital and knowledge, the environmental pollution could at first rise and then fall with a sustainable growth in per capita income. Using the provincial panel data from 1995 to 2017 in the mainland of China, an empirical analysis is carried out by the System Generalized Method of Moment (sys-GMM). The results show that: first, the EKC hypothesis exists in China. The inflection point for SO₂ emissions has been passed in all of the provincial regions, and for CO₂ and comprehensive environmental pollution losses have not been passed in some regions, but the inflection point from the national average level in China has been passed; second, the main production factors of the traditional economy, physical capital and labor, are positively correlated with environmental pollution, while human capital and green technological progress, the main production factors of the knowledge economy, are negatively related to environmental pollution; third, human capital and green technological progress have become important factors to promote economic growth, and human capital, in particular, has become the primary factor, which indicates that China is in the process of transforming traditional economy into a knowledge economy. The stage of China’s economic development and the trend of environmental pollution is consistent with the extended “sources of growth” explanation for the EKC, which proved the theoretical hypothesis. This has an important practical significance for China’s current economic reform and important theoretical value for the economic transformation and sustainable development of developing countries. The paper finally puts forward corresponding policy recommendations.