1. Introduction
The economy and the environment are the two major themes of human social development. General Secretary Xi Jinping has pointed out that protecting the ecological environment is to protect productivity, and improving the ecological environment is to develop productivity. The air pollution in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region is significant. According to the National Urban Air Quality Report in May 2021, there are 12 cities with air pollution transmission channels in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei, accounting for 60% of the 20 cities with relatively poor air quality in China. Resolving Beijing’s non-capital function, promoting orderly industrial transfer, optimizing the industrial spatial layout, upgrading traditional industries, and eliminating backward production capacity are necessary choices for realizing the coordinated development of the economy and environment in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region.
Thus, exploring the relationship between industrial transfer and the environment can provide new ideas for improving environmental quality. Based on this, this paper used a spatial econometric model to analyze the direct effect, indirect effect, and total effect of industrial transfer on the environment. In addition, this paper also used the EKC curve as an effective tool to deeply analyze economic growth and environmental problems [
1]. This paper incorporated the industrial transfer index into the EKC analysis framework to analyze the environmental impact of industrial transfer, to provide theoretical support and suggestions for the coordinated green development of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region.
This paper makes the following three marginal contributions: (1) This paper explored the relationship between industrial transfer and industrial sulfur dioxide, industrial wastewater, and industrial soot, not only to explore the impact of industrial transfer on environmental quality, but also to provide a more detailed reference for policy formulation. (2) The spatial econometric model was used to explore the spatial direct effect, spatial spillover effect, and spatial total effect between industrial transfer and environmental quality. Compared with ordinary panel regression, the empirical analysis of this paper considered the spatial correlation between variables. (3) Whether there is an EKC curve in the direct effect, indirect effect, and total effect of industrial sulfur dioxide, industrial wastewater, and industrial soot was discussed, improving the conclusions of the existing literature.
The content of this paper is arranged as follows: the second part is literature review, the third part is model design and data interpretation, the fourth part is real evidence analysis, the fifth part is conclusion, and the sixth part is recommendations. The specific research framework is shown in
Figure 1.
2. Literature Review
The environmental effect of industrial transfer is a research hotspot in related fields. Many academic circles have discussed whether the ecological impact of industrial transfer is negative or positive. Some scholars suggest the former and others the latter, thus forming the “pollution haven theory” and “pollution halo theory” [
2].
People in developed countries or regions tend to have higher environmental demands [
1]. Governments may adopt stricter environmental regulations, while less developed countries or regions consider economic development as the primary goal and adopt looser environmental rules. A more open environmental code means lower ecological costs, and enterprises with high energy consumption and high pollution that are chasing profits will gradually shift to less developed regions. At the same time, due to the aggregation of pollution-intensive industries, the natural environment of the areas of industrial transfer will also come under increasing pressure, which is the so-called “pollution haven theory” [
3,
4]. Around this theory, scholars at home and abroad have undertaken much empirical analysis. Sun et al. took Beijing as the research object [
4]. They empirically analyzed the inter-regional transfer process of industries in combination with the fact that Beijing’s “non-capital function” industries were being liberated outwards. Akbostanci et al. pointed out that the environmental concerns of developed economies led them to formulate strict environmental regulations, which increased the production cost of domestic polluting industries [
5]. Akbostanci et al. [
5] believe pollution-intensive industries have shifted from developed to developing countries. Li thought that the pioneering development of the secondary sector reduced the carbon emissions of all provinces in China [
6]. Silva and Zhu found that with free and open trade, poorer countries become pollution havens for emissions trading [
7].
The research framework suggests that the process of transferring excess capacity from developed to less developed countries or regions is accompanied by the transfer of sustainable management concepts [
8], advanced management models [
9,
10], and green innovation technologies (
Figure 2). The transfer of excess capacity can effectively promote innovation management, reform management modes, and innovative green development technology in underdeveloped areas, and then promote the industrial carrying capacity to improve the environment. Wang et al. [
8] found through empirical tests that the transfer of pollution-intensive industries in Beijing has had a typical pollution halo effect. Mert and Caglar argue that an increase in foreign direct investment leads to a decline in the growth rate of emissions, which supports the asymmetric pollution halo hypothesis [
11]. Kisswani and Zaitouni studied the impact of foreign direct investment on pollution in Malaysia and Singapore from 1971 to 2014. The results supported the pollution halo hypothesis in Malaysia and Singapore [
12].
As shown in
Figure 2, both international and interregional industrial transfers have two effects. On the one hand, due to differences in environmental regulations, the high energy-consuming and high-polluting production capacity of developed countries or regions are transferred to less developed countries or regions, place pressure on the local environment. On the other hand, the industrial transfer also brings sustainable development concepts and business model innovation to the industrial carrier to a certain extent, and promotes local enterprises to carry out green technological innovation, thus improving the local environment. Different regions or development stages in the same region have different attitudes towards industrial transfer. Whether industrial transfer will aggravate local environmental pollution or vice versa, and whether the ecological effect of the industrial transfer will be positive or negative, needs to be verified by further empirical research [
13].
The academic community has not formed a unified understanding of the comprehensive impact of human beings on the environment [
14]. There are two main views on this. The first view is that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and the environment. That is, the environment deteriorates first and then improves with economic growth. The second view is that the inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and the environment is related to many factors [
15,
16,
17]. In the EKC (Environment Kuznets Curve) analysis framework, a specific econometric analysis method is generally used [
18,
19], the dependent variable is the environmental index, and the independent variables include an index representing economic growth and other control variables [
20,
21,
22,
23,
24,
25]. Few studies have introduced industrial transfer into the EKC analysis framework. Liu et al. constructed the industrial transfer index. They used the time series data of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region to analyze the impact of industrial transfer on the economic environment using the traditional econometric model [
26]. However, this study did not consider the spatial dependence of industrial transfer. Only the environmental impact effect (direct effect) of industrial transfer in the region was considered, while the environmental impact effect (indirect effect) of industrial transfer in neighboring areas was ignored. Many works on spatial measurement have considered that economic variables often have significant spatial dependence [
27]. In addition, most of the EKC empirical analysis literature based on spatial econometric methods discusses the EKC curve based on the estimation results of model coefficients, which is inaccurate [
28,
29]. Given this, this study introduced industrial transfer into the EKC analysis framework, using a spatial panel data model to analyze the effect of industrial transfer on industrial sulfur dioxide, wastewater, and soot.
6. Suggestions
Industrial transfer has an influential effect on the discharge of different pollutants, and there are differences in the indirect effect and direct effect of industrial transfer. In the control variable, the proportion of the secondary industry had a positive impact on each pollutant, and there was a U-shaped relationship between various pollutants and economic development. Based on the above research findings, this paper proposes the following recommendations.
First, we must promote orderly Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region industrial transfer. The coordinated development of Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei will ease the non-capital function of Beijing as the starting point, adjust and optimize the urban layout and spatial structure, and expand the environmental capacity. According to the five development concepts, Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei will develop into a world-class urban agglomeration with the capital as the core. It will be a leading area for regional coordinated development and reform, a new engine for national innovation-driven economic growth, and a demonstration area for ecological restoration and environmental improvement. According to functional orientation, all pollution-intensive industries in Beijing, Zhangcheng, and adjacent areas to Beijing and Xiong’an will be eliminated or relocated, and all high-pollution enterprises in Tianjin will be eliminated or relocated. Other regions in Hebei will upgrade, eliminate, transfer, and retain a batch of high-pollution enterprises according to ecological and economic conditions. The environmental capacity will be far greater than the emissions of pollution-intensive enterprises.
Second, joint prevention and treatment should target environmental governance. The coordinated development of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, including economic and ecological coordination, currently only considers the region’s environmental prevention and control and cannot fundamentally solve ecological problems. Collaborative economic development, environmental joint prevention and control, and vigorous promotion of the integration of green growth in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region will contribute to the integrated protection and restoration of mountains, rivers, forests, fields, lakes, and grasslands, and the integration of mountain control, water control, gas control, and city control. The Hebei Zhangcheng area should become a green ecological industrial belt. Most of the pollution-intensive industries in Beijing and Tianjin, and the Xiong’an adjacent areas, have already been relocated. The distribution density of pollution-intensive enterprises in Baoding, Shijiazhuang, Xingtai, Handan, Tangshan, and Cangzhou is large, and the excess capacity can be reasonably transferred to other regions or overseas regions. This region can be built into a demonstration area for upgrading and transforming traditional industries and developed into an advanced manufacturing industry belt. Different and targeted control and prevention measures should be taken for air pollution, water pollution, and solid waste pollution. In addition, through the coordination of fiscal, taxation, and financial policies, we must strictly control key polluting enterprises, increase preferential compensation for energy conservation and environmental protection industries, and form a systematic ecological mechanism for the coordinated development of Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei industries.
Third, the industrial structure should be adjusted and the industrial layout optimized. The empirical results showed that appropriately reducing the proportion of secondary industry and vigorously developing tertiary industry is conducive to solving environmental problems in the region and neighboring regions. In the early stage of industrialization, the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, especially Hebei Province, developed a large number of heavy industries. Economic development has also caused many environmental problems; however, the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region has entered a post-industrial era, transforming from extensive economic growth to high-quality development, and steadily promoting the construction of ecological civilization has become the main theme of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, and even the whole country. In central and southern Hebei, the distribution density of pollution-intensive industries remains large, and the climatic conditions are not conducive to atmospheric circulation, making extreme haze pollution a risk. Central and southern Hebei should take measures such as industrial relocation and upgrading of traditional industries to reduce the distribution density of pollution-intensive enterprises, vigorously develop tertiary industry, adjust the industrial structure, and optimize the industrial layout. In addition, in the process of structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading, Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei industry must address the restrictions of administrative divisions, weaken the isomorphism of the three regional industries, and unify the planning and coordination of the management of the region, including the industrial structure, industrial layout, industrial docking, industrial integration, industrial transfer, and industrial transformation and upgrading.
Fourth, we must improve the level of circular economy development. The research results showed that a circular economy is an effective way to solve environmental problems. The circular economy is an important breakthrough to realizing the coordinated development of the economy and environment. It plays an irreplaceable role in reducing pollutant emissions and energy consumption, developing strategic emerging industries, and protecting the ecological environment. The development of a circular economy can comprehensively improve resource utilization efficiency by building a multi-level resource recycling system. In the field of industrial production, the five major tasks of green design of key products, clean production of key industries, circular development of parks, comprehensive utilization of resources, and coordinated disposal of urban waste have been gradually completed. The major tasks include improving the level of processing and utilization of renewable resources, standardizing the development of the second-hand commodity market, and promoting the high-quality development of the remanufacturing industry. In addition, the development of a circular economy requires strengthening the monitoring and evaluation of resource utilization efficiency, and improving the statistical data supporting the development of the circular economy. Specifically, in central and southern Hebei, the original industrial park will be transformed into a circular economy eco-industrial park, with “reduction, reuse, recycling” as the principle, to change the past “mass production, mass consumption, abandon” traditional model.
Fifth, we must promote green production and lifestyles, and explore the road to high-quality development. The Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region should vigorously promote green production and lifestyles, establish co-construction and sharing, and promote green consumption, travel, and green living. Green production is a comprehensive measure to implement pollution control in the whole process of industrial production, with the goal of saving energy, reducing consumption, and reducing pollution, using management and technology as the means. A green lifestyle is a resource-saving and environmentally friendly modern civilized lifestyle, and advocates green consumption, green travel, and green living. It is a profound change in ideas, consumption patterns, and social governance. It will force production methods to achieve green transformation. Promoting the green transformation of production and lifestyle represents a profound change in development concepts and practices. First, we must adhere to and implement new development concepts, correctly handle the relationship between economic development and ecological and environmental protection, and resolutely abandon development models that damage or destroy the ecological environment. Second, we must build an ecological economic system with industrial ecologicalization and ecological industrialization as the main body, and take the road of green, low-carbon, and circular development. We must establish a new outlook on survival and happiness, and we must advocate green consumption in order to achieve sustainable utilization of resources. Specifically, the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region has the basic conditions for the transformation to high-quality development. The consumer demand in the region is growing, the service industry is developing rapidly, and the scale of middle-income groups is increasing. Supply side structural reform will drive the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region to achieve high-quality development.