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Article

Demand for and Supply of Pulses and Oil Crops in Bangladesh: A Strategic Projection for These Food Item Outlooks by 2030 and 2050

by
Shaikh Mohammad Bokhtiar
1,
Sheikh Md. Fakhrul Islam
2,
Md. Mosharraf Uddin Molla
3,
Md. Abdus Salam
3,* and
Md. Abdur Rashid
4
1
Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council, Dhaka 1215, Bangladesh
2
Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Gazipur 1706, Bangladesh
3
Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology Division, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council, Dhaka 1215, Bangladesh
4
Agricultural Economics Division, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute, Gazipur 1701, Bangladesh
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2023, 15(10), 8240; https://doi.org/10.3390/su15108240
Submission received: 7 March 2023 / Revised: 10 April 2023 / Accepted: 13 April 2023 / Published: 18 May 2023

Abstract

The food items, such as pulses and oil crops, are influential means of nutritional security for the people in Bangladesh. Pulses are widely called here as an alternative to meat for poor households. The study aimed to predict productivity and national demand of pulses and oil crops in Bangladesh by 2030 and 2050, minimizing the supply and demand gaps of these crops. Using the ARIMA model developed by Box and Jenkins, the current study projected Bangladesh’s pulse and oil crop demand and supply for the years 2030 and 2050. The projections showed that the total demand for pulses in 2030 will be 17.9 lakh MT and further increased to 19.5 lakh MT in 2050. The deficit in the supply of pulses will be 12.36 lakh MT in 2030 and 9.26 lakh MT in 2050 although the shortage of pulses will disappear as a result of productivity improvements and innovations. Per capita consumption of edible oil in Bangladesh is 20–22 g per day. The majority of domestically produced soybean (5% of total demand) is used in the feed industries, while edible oil from soybean depends on import. The supply of mustard oil is predicted to be in deficit by 0.30 lakh MT in 2030 and 1.68 lakh MT in 2050. Nevertheless, the estimates also warn that supply of these food items could be threatened due to climate changes. In facing future challenges, supportive government policy and substantial investment in research and extension should be given priority for technological innovation and productivity improvement. Government also needs to develop a strategic import substitution policy for higher production of these crop and storage facilities.
Keywords: demand for; supply of; pulses; oil crops; surplus; deficit; projection demand for; supply of; pulses; oil crops; surplus; deficit; projection

Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Bokhtiar, S.M.; Islam, S.M.F.; Molla, M.M.U.; Salam, M.A.; Rashid, M.A. Demand for and Supply of Pulses and Oil Crops in Bangladesh: A Strategic Projection for These Food Item Outlooks by 2030 and 2050. Sustainability 2023, 15, 8240. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15108240

AMA Style

Bokhtiar SM, Islam SMF, Molla MMU, Salam MA, Rashid MA. Demand for and Supply of Pulses and Oil Crops in Bangladesh: A Strategic Projection for These Food Item Outlooks by 2030 and 2050. Sustainability. 2023; 15(10):8240. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15108240

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bokhtiar, Shaikh Mohammad, Sheikh Md. Fakhrul Islam, Md. Mosharraf Uddin Molla, Md. Abdus Salam, and Md. Abdur Rashid. 2023. "Demand for and Supply of Pulses and Oil Crops in Bangladesh: A Strategic Projection for These Food Item Outlooks by 2030 and 2050" Sustainability 15, no. 10: 8240. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15108240

APA Style

Bokhtiar, S. M., Islam, S. M. F., Molla, M. M. U., Salam, M. A., & Rashid, M. A. (2023). Demand for and Supply of Pulses and Oil Crops in Bangladesh: A Strategic Projection for These Food Item Outlooks by 2030 and 2050. Sustainability, 15(10), 8240. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15108240

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