Water–Energy–Food Security Nexus—Estimating Future Water Demand Scenarios Based on Nexus Thinking: The Watershed as a Territory
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. The Study Area
2.2. WEAP Software
2.3. Data Collection
2.4. Calibration and Validation
2.5. Developing Water Demand Scenarios
2.6. The WEF Sustainability Index
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Model Construction
3.2. Model Calibration and Validation
3.3. Water Demand Future Scenarios
3.3.1. Water Demand for the Reference Scenario (C_REF)
3.3.2. The Water Demand Scenario for Alternative Energy Sources Demands (C_EAL)
3.3.3. Water Demand for the Scenario of Increased Usage of Water Resource Management Instruments (C_GES)
3.3.4. Water Demand for the Climatic Change Scenario (C_MCL)
3.3.5. Water Demand for the Integrated Scenario (C_INT)
3.3.6. Evolution of Water Demand Based on the Proposed Scenarios
3.4. Sustainability Index
4. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Data Set | Source |
---|---|
Rainfall | [44] |
Flow | [44] |
Temperature, Relative Humidity, and Wind Speed | [45,46] |
Soil Use and Occupation | [40,47,48] |
Vegetation Cover | [39,41,49,50,51] |
Water Demands | [52,53] |
Hydrogeological Data | [54] |
Energy Production | [55,56] |
Premises | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Population Growth (inhab.) | 448,244 | 523,804 | 612,101 | 715,282 |
Industrial GDP (Thousand R$) | 6,665,888.22 | 10,117,658.81 | 15,356,846.14 | 23,309,021.18 |
Agricultural Areas (ha) | 9547 | 9083 | 8641 | 8220 |
Simulation Step | Precision Statistics | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
NSE | Pbias | R2 | D | |
Calibration | 0.602 | 0.545 | 0.618 | 0.882 |
Validation | 0.488 | −8.501 | 0.796 | 0.909 |
WEAP Parameter | Values | Units |
---|---|---|
Preferred Flow Direction—F | 0.68 | dimensionless |
Crop Coefficient—Kc | 0.40–1.20 | dimensionless |
Runoff Resistance Factor—RRF | 2.00–3.00 | dimensionless |
Soil Water Capacity—Sw | 480 | mm |
Initial Z1 | 13 | % |
Root Zone Conductivity—Ks | 188 | mm.month−1 |
Month | Flow (m3/s) | Difference (%) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
C_REF | C_MCL 4.5 | C_MCL 8.5 | REF—4.5 | REF—8.5 | |
January | 33.99 | 21.22 | 18.45 | −37.57% | −45.72% |
February | 32.80 | 19.85 | 19.22 | −39.48% | −41.40% |
March | 27.33 | 16.67 | 16.88 | −39.00% | −38.24% |
April | 17.32 | 11.88 | 12.57 | −31.41% | −27.42% |
May | 16.20 | 8.95 | 9.20 | −44.75% | −43.21% |
June | 14.38 | 8.22 | 8.43 | −42.84% | −41.38% |
July | 14.04 | 8.79 | 8.95 | −37.39% | −36.25% |
August | 11.94 | 12.07 | 10.79 | 1.09% | −9.63% |
September | 17.91 | 16.93 | 14.86 | −5.47% | −17.03% |
October | 20.48 | 20.48 | 19.18 | 0.00% | −6.35% |
November | 22.67 | 18.40 | 19.65 | −18.84% | −13.32% |
December | 21.55 | 17.45 | 21.13 | −19.03% | −1.95% |
Entire Hydrologic Year | 20.88 | 15.08 | 14.94 | −27.81% | −28.45% |
Wettest Season | 24.90 | 19.06 | 18.75 | −23.47% | −24.71% |
Driest Season | 16.87 | 11.10 | 11.14 | −34.22% | −33.98% |
WEF—BHRC Sustainability Index Parameters | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Scenario | Parameter I 1 | Parameter II 2 | Parameter III 3 | Parameter IV 4 |
C_REF | 3,834,443,824.00 | 29,990,510,592.00 | 2,684,103,676.80 | 222,367,574.15 |
C_GES | 3,205,182,576.00 | 29,990,510,592.00 | 2,243,627,803.20 | 222,367,574.15 |
C_EAL | 3,520,126,752.00 | 29,990,510,592.00 | 2,464,088,726.40 | 222,367,574.15 |
C_INT | 2,890,875,480.00 | 29,990,510,592.00 | 2,023,612,836.00 | 222,367,574.15 |
C_MCL_4.5 | 3,834,433,824.00 | 29,450,862,592.00 | 2,684,103,676.80 | 222,367,574.15 |
C_MCL_8.5 | 3,834,433,824.00 | 29,436,542,976.00 | 2,684,103,676.80 | 222,367,574.15 |
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Dias, I.Y.P.; Lazaro, L.L.B.; Barros, V.G. Water–Energy–Food Security Nexus—Estimating Future Water Demand Scenarios Based on Nexus Thinking: The Watershed as a Territory. Sustainability 2023, 15, 7050. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15097050
Dias IYP, Lazaro LLB, Barros VG. Water–Energy–Food Security Nexus—Estimating Future Water Demand Scenarios Based on Nexus Thinking: The Watershed as a Territory. Sustainability. 2023; 15(9):7050. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15097050
Chicago/Turabian StyleDias, Icaro Yuri Pereira, Lira Luz Benites Lazaro, and Virginia Grace Barros. 2023. "Water–Energy–Food Security Nexus—Estimating Future Water Demand Scenarios Based on Nexus Thinking: The Watershed as a Territory" Sustainability 15, no. 9: 7050. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15097050