Determining the Level of and Potential for the Development of Tourism Clusters, Taking into Account Infrastructure and Urban Planning Factors

Abstract

The optimal development of tourism clusters (quite active and effective, but not allowing overtourism) requires the development of methods for calculating their level of development and potential, taking into account the most important influencing factors. Consideration of the share of factors’ influence on the development of tourism clusters does not adequately take into account the infrastructure and urban planning components. This article, based on a literature analysis and expert assessment, identifies the main factors influencing the development of tourism clusters and shows the leading role of infrastructure factors and the provision of a cluster with high-quality hotel stock. Formulas are given for calculating factor indicators and determining the integral level of development of the cluster, as well as its development potential, including infrastructural. An example of calculations of the development potential of a cluster and management decisions made in the field of construction is given using the example of an emerging tourism cluster, “Kirzhach”. The results of the factor analysis and calculation of the cluster development potential will allow informed management decisions to be made not only for the investment and construction of hotel real estate and other tourism infrastructure, but also for cluster development priorities and areas of government regulation and support.

1. Introduction

Tourism plays an important role in ensuring the economic development of countries and regions [1,2], combining various industries, as well as tangible infrastructure facilities with intangible values [3,4].

In the context of growing competition in tourism [5], which is increasing demand for services, researchers are turning to the study of the cluster approach in this area [6].

In tourism, mutual synergy makes it possible to facilitate access to all interrelated services [7,8], which leads to studies on the effectiveness of creating clusters—geographically concentrated companies (horizontally or vertically) with related services [9,10]—while noting the heterogeneity of companies and the diversity of their interests, products and strategies [11]. The clustering of tourism activities is an actively developing and effective practice [11], requiring the development of mechanisms for further improvement.

The problems of tourism and the formation of tourist clusters are discussed quite widely. Thus, the very concept and meaning of clustering are disclosed in [12]: spatial connectivity and increased integration lead to increased accessibility and commonality of space. Clustering in tourism leads to a synergistic effect for all stakeholders, increased consistency, infrastructure development and increased prosperity in the region [13].

The main aspects addressed in articles regarding tourism today are the volume of tourism demand and supply of services, revenue management and demand for hotels [14].

In the considered literature, there are a number of works devoted to the factors of tourism development, including the formation and effectiveness of tourism clusters. Intercluster interactions with transport clusters and their impact on tourism have been studied [15,16]. However, despite the absolute relationship with the construction cluster and sphere, such an interaction is not covered in these articles in a full manner, but rather, in a number of separate projections.

Recently, the number of works substantiating the relationship between sustainable development and the effectiveness of tourism activities has increased [17]. At the same time, the authors of several studies consider one of the most important aspects of sustainability to be ensuring cooperation between the state and other stakeholders in the process of investing, planning tourism development and improving infrastructure [18,19,20].

Customer satisfaction, based on the quality of services, tourism infrastructure and facilities, is an important component of the effective development of tourism clusters ([21], etc.).

Customer satisfaction is largely determined by the characteristics of tourist accommodation facilities, that is, hotel real estate [22].

The relationship between urban planning and tourism clusters has been considered to a limited extent, as has the influence of tourist accommodation facilities on the development of the cluster. According to the results of the study [16], most of the work in this area focuses on urban and infrastructure planning strategies for tourism purposes and is based on qualitative analysis. The second direction of research concerns the adaptation and reconstruction of cultural heritage sites in tourism ([23,24], etc.) and concerns those projects for which a decision for implementation necessity has already been made. The third direction concerns the influence of various factors on the competitiveness of clusters [25]; however, infrastructural or urban planning factors are limited to transport infrastructure.

There is also a gap in research regarding the determination of the urban planning or infrastructural potential of a cluster, although the definition of the tourist potential of a cluster and its factors is given quite fully in a number of articles ([26], etc.). Moreover, the authors of such studies ([26], etc.) note that the presence of attractions alone without other factors does not guarantee the successful development of a tourist area.

Our work is devoted to identifying the most important factors in the formation and development of tourism clusters, substantiating infrastructural urban planning factors as basic and calculating indicators characterizing these factors, as well as determining the infrastructural potential of the cluster and the general level and potential of its development. This work is devoted to newly created and developed clusters, with the presence of objects of attraction but low tourist flow due to the lack of infrastructure facilities, the specificity of which is the orientation towards domestic tourism, including in the territory of the Vladimir region and in the city of Kirzhach. By cluster development, we mean the formation of a complex of tourist attractions, accommodation for tourists, food, entertainment, transport accessibility and the provision of tourist services on the territory. Cluster development is interconnected with the tourist flow.

The structure of our article is as follows:

• Section 2 is devoted to the analysis of existing research on the factors of the effective functioning of tourism clusters, emphasizing the main influencing factors, as well as the importance of taking into account urban planning factors.
• Section 3 discusses methods for selecting factors, calculating indicators characterizing these factors, and formulas for calculating the level and development potential of a tourism cluster.
• Section 4 presents the results of an assessment of the influence of factors on the level of efficiency of the tourism cluster, a calculation of indicators characterizing these factors and the integral level of development of the tourism cluster, and a forecast of the level of development in the implementation of the infrastructure and urban planning potential of the cluster, using the example of the city of Kirzhach in the Vladimir region.
• Section 5 discusses the contribution of our study results to the theory and practice of the urban development of tourism clusters and outlines prospects for future research.
• Section 6 summarizes the results of this study, highlighting recommendations for managing the urban planning potential of tourism clusters to improve their level of development and efficiency.

2. Literature Review

In modern research, several main areas can be distinguished: the supply and demand of tourism services, the profitability of the tourism business and demand for hotels. In these new areas of research, the bibliometric analysis carried out in [27] identified the areas of digitalization and innovation. Within the framework of the problem we are considering, these areas are also important, but in terms of key factors in the development of tourism, especially infrastructural and urban planning (in terms of the development potential of tourism clusters according to the most important factors). Despite the need to plan the infrastructural development of tourist areas on a cluster basis and determine the required number of hotels and other tourist infrastructure facilities, a comprehensive study of this area has not been carried out.

Regarding the main factors in the formation and development of tourism clusters, researchers consider various projections. Ref. [28] identified six elements of tourism, namely “Food, Shopping, Transport, Accommodation, Entertainment and Attractions”. The work [26] notes the multitude of factors characterizing both the location of the cluster territory and its resources and tourist attractions (including climate, ecology, the availability and remoteness of attractions, transport accessibility, market trends, the cost of visiting and, in principle, all natural, economic, legislative and social characteristics of the territory). Also, based on an extensive literature review, the authors of the work [26] state the absence of a single methodology for determining tourist potential, which is primarily perceived as the characteristics of the territory. Noting the existing works on the relationship between tourist potential and the number of places to accommodate tourists, however, no attention is focused on the urban development and infrastructural potential of the territory, which is attractive to tourists. In the works [25,29], many factors are presented, including transport infrastructure, human resources development, environmental factors and digital technologies. Hence, we consider it appropriate to include these factors in our assessment. It is especially important to note that, according to ([25,26,27], etc.), regardless of the size and level of the tourist potential of the territory, infrastructure (tourist accommodation, roads, food facilities, etc.) is one of the factors of the attractiveness of a tourist cluster.

Urban planning and infrastructural development, as the basis, factors and elements of tourism clusters in the literature, are also considered from various positions. Rational functional zoning, the complexity of facilities, resort configuration and the provision of a road transport network are important according to the research in this area [16,30,31,32]. Particular attention is paid to the relationship between the efficiency of tourist facilities and transport accessibility and the characteristics of the road network [16,33,34]. We believe that this factor should be included in questionnaires when assessing and selecting factors influencing the development of a tourism cluster.

A separate range of works is devoted to the reconstruction and adaptation of cultural heritage sites in tourism. The entire range of works on objects is considered, from conservation to reconstruction and restoration [35,36,37]. Particular attention in modern research in this area is paid to the economic feasibility of adapting cultural heritage objects and the effectiveness of their reuse and further use [38,39,40]. Researchers also determine the efficiency of hotel renovation and reconstruction and the optimal planning of renovation projects [41]. Researchers note that renovation is one of the strategic marketing tools that can improve the efficiency of the tourism business [42], which allows us to include this factor among those assessed in our research work. This direction is also significant for our research when making decisions on the implementation of management actions and the implementation of investment projects if there is sufficient potential for the development of a tourism cluster in terms of infrastructure and urban planning factors.

The characteristics of a hotel property influence the efficiency of the tourism cluster through customer satisfaction, quality and comfort of stay. The importance of these factors, including thermal comfort, air quality [43] and even the visual perception of the hotel [44], is emphasized in the considered literature. These works also note the need for a relationship between the design and operation of hotels, which will improve the quality of services and their innovativeness. This means that the factor of comfort of accommodation facilities and quality of services should be included in the assessment.

Interconnected with this area of research are works that consider sustainable development and its elements as factors of influence on tourism clusters [17]. The main elements of sustainable development are energy efficiency, environmental friendliness and integration with “smart” technologies.

Researchers also include the interaction of stakeholders in the process of developing tourism clusters, government participation in stimulating investment and infrastructure development as aspects of sustainable development [18,19], as well as planning tourist areas. The factor state participation [45], as well as the co-financing of projects for the construction of tourism infrastructure [20], must be taken into account in these assessments.

As the most important factors for the effectiveness of tourism activities, researchers identify customer satisfaction and customer focus [46], which, in turn, comprises the quality of tourism infrastructure, facilities and services [47,48], as well as innovation [46]. The ability of hotels to provide quality services mediates the effect of market orientation on the effectiveness of tourism activities [49] and indicates the need to consider the factor of service quality in our study.

Customer satisfaction in tourism also depends on the image of the city or region [50], determining the quality of services and the competitiveness of the tourist area [51]. An important aspect is innovation [52], including that related to hotel operating systems and the Internet of things, as well as lean construction technologies [53,54].

Based on the analysis of the considered literature, we have formed a primary list of factors influencing the development of tourism clusters, and also substantiated the lack of research in the field of the influence of infrastructure and urban planning on tourism clusters, especially in terms of calculating the level of development and existing potential.

3. Materials and Methods

When conducting this study, three main methods were used: a semi-structured interview, a questionnaire and calculations using formulas based on data from an existing tourism cluster. Semi-structured interviews were conducted to form a primary list of factors influencing the development of a tourism cluster (we divided them into groups). During the survey and subsequent expert assessment, the main factors influencing the development of the tourism cluster were identified, and infrastructure (urban planning) factors were identified as the most important. The calculations we performed using formulas based on the data of the existing tourism cluster made it possible to determine the level of development of the tourism cluster and the potential for its development when construction is intensified. It should be noted that in the course of this study, already-created and -planned tourist clusters were considered, the tourist attractions (sights, climate, etc.) of which are attractive to tourists.

The process of the quantitative assessment of influencing factors to determine the overall level and development potential of a tourism cluster is presented in Figure 1.

Based on a literature review and a semi-structured interview, a list of 30 factors was formulated to carry out an expert survey and identify the most important factors. Experts assessed the importance of influencing factors by filling out a questionnaire developed by the authors. The survey involved managers, investors and employees of tourism clusters (holding management positions and with more than 5 years of experience in the industry) (Appendix A). A number of experts work in the field of the public administration of tourism and have experience in developing a number of clusters, most of which are newly created, including in the Vladimir region and in the central regions of Russia. The experts included investors in the facilities in Kirzhach, who have implemented a number of investment projects in the cluster.

The developed questionnaire consists of several sections: type of activity and distribution of influencing factors. The questionnaire is designed to be processed in a Likert scale format with a semantic rating scale of 1–5, similar to [55].

The quantitative survey results were analyzed to obtain statistics and determine their consistency. The average item scores, simple percentage, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation were used for data analysis [56]. According to the considered literature, a standard deviation below 1 on a five-point Likert scale is generally accepted as a low level of variance in an assessment [57]. The standard deviation was below 1 for all estimates. The average value was also used to determine the importance of factors. A higher mean value reflected greater importance of the factor from the experts’ point of view. The results of the factor assessment are presented in

Table 1. List of influencing factors and results of expert assessment of the importance of factors.

No	Factors Influencing the Development of the Tourism Cluster (Xi)	Expert Assessment of the Importance of the Factor, Points on a Likert Scale												Average Score (bxi)	Standard Deviation	Consistency
		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
1	Level of provision of travel companies with hotel stock	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5.00	0.00	1.00
2	Comfort level of hotel facilities for tourist accommodation	5	5	5	5	5	4	5	5	4	5	4	5	4.75	0.45	0.90
3	Availability of active production potential of construction enterprises in the region	2	2	2	1	1	2	1	2	1	1	1	2	1.5	0.5222	0.65
4	The level of physical depreciation of the existing hotel stock (depreciation)	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	5	5	5	4	5	4.75	0.45	0.90
5	The level of obsolescence of the existing hotel stock	5	5	5	4	5	5	4	5	4	5	5	5	4.75	0.45	0.90
6	Environmental pollution and environmental safety	2	5	1	2	3	1	1	1	1	1	3	2	1.917	1.2401	0.35
7	Level of development of transport infrastructure (availability of tourist sites)	5	5	4	5	4	5	5	4	5	4	5	4	4.58	0.51	0.89
8	Development of leisure enterprises, retail trade, public catering and recreational sphere	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	2	1	2	1	1.667	0.4924	0.70
9	Nomenclature (range) of services offered	4	3	3	4	3	4	3	4	4	3	4	4	3.58	0.51	0.86
10	Level of quality of services provided	5	5	4	4	4	4	5	4	4	4	5	4	4.33	0.49	0.89
11	Climatic conditions	2	2	1	1	2	1	1	3	1	2	3	1	1.667	0.7785	0.53
12	Number of tourist activities	4	3	4	4	3	3	4	4	4	4	3	3	3.58	0.51	0.86
13	Possibility of receiving benefits and discounts on tourism services at the expense of the state	2	1	2	3	2	2	2	1	3	3	1	1	1.917	0.793	0.59
14	The level of competitiveness of the offered tourist services	2	4	2	2	3	3	2	2	2	2	3	2	2.42	0.67	0.72
15	Level of the development of safety and comfort	2	2	3	2	1	1	1	2	1	1	2	1	1583	0.6686	0.58
16	Level of development of advertising activities	4	4	3	3	3	3	4	3	4	3	3	4	3.42	0.51	0.85
17	Availability of professionally trained specialists	4	2	3	3	3	4	3	4	3	3	4	4	3.33	0.65	0.80
18	Opportunities for vocational education or advanced training in the region	3	2	3	2	3	3	2	3	3	3	3	3	2.75	0.45	0.84
19	Average employee salary level	3	2	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	2	2	3	2.17	0.58	0.73
20	Unemployment rate in the region	3	2	2	3	3	2	2	3	2	2	3	2	2.42	0.51	0.79
21	Availability of rich natural and cultural heritage	2	2	1	1	2	3	1	2	3	1	1	2	1.75	0.75	0.57
22	Job growth rates in travel agencies with growing clients	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	3	3	3	2	2	2.75	0.45	0.84
23	Volume of investments in the renovation and overhaul of existing accommodation facilities	4	4	3	4	3	2	2	3	4	3	4	2	3.17	0.83	0.74
24	Seasonal unevenness of demand	2	2	2	1	1	2	2	1	1	1	2	3	1.67	0.65	0.61
25	Percentage of tourism industry financing from private businesses	4	3	2	3	3	2	3	4	3	4	2	4	3.08	0.79	0.74
26	Volume of investment in new construction	4	3	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	3	3.33	0.49	0.85
27	Partnerships between large organizations and medium and small businesses	2	2	2	3	2	1	1	2	2	1	2	1	1.75	0.62	0.64
28	Percentage of funding for the tourism industry from the regional budget	4	3	4	4	3	3	4	4	3	3	4	3	3.50	0.52	0.85
29	Urbanization (increasing share of urban population)	2	2	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	1	1	1	1.67	0.78	0.53
30	Dynamics of changes in the number of clients	3	3	4	3	4	3	4	4	3	3	4	3	3.42	0.51	0.85

.

The calculation of the standard deviation and coefficient of variation indicates the agreement of experts on each factor. Consistency is assessed using the formula:

$$\mathrm{C}=1-\mathrm{V}$$

(1)

where C is the agreement of experts, and V is the coefficient of variation of expert assessments.

The C value of agreement ranges from 0 (no agreement) to 1 (strong agreement), with any value above 0.7 indicating a high level of agreement [56,58]. The consistency of respondents’ answers is high.

Next, based on the results of the expert assessment, twenty factors with an average Likert scale score (b_xi) greater than 2 were selected for further consideration.

These factors are the most important for determining the level of development of a tourism cluster (K), and in general, the dependence of the overall level of development of a tourism cluster on the selected factors can be written as follows:

$$\mathrm{K} = \mathrm{f} ({\mathrm{X}}_1, {\mathrm{X}}_2, \dots , {\mathrm{X}}_{\mathrm{k}})$$

(2)

Based on the results of the expert assessment, 20 important factors were selected; thus, k = 20.

The calculation of the numerical value of the factors themselves is based on the comparative method, in which the objective function tends to a maximum [58]. In general, the following model for calculating each factor indicator is proposed:

$$\begin{gathered} {\mathrm{x}}_{\mathrm{i}}={\displaystyle \frac{{\mathrm{x}}_{\mathrm{f}}}{{\mathrm{x}}_{\mathrm{o}\mathrm{p}\mathrm{t}}}} \\ \max ; {\mathrm{X}}_{\mathrm{i}} [0; 1] \end{gathered}$$

(3)

where X_i is the calculated value of the i-th factor indicator; X_f represents the actual data value for calculating the factor indicator; and X_opt is the best value of the factor indicator data (planned value, either the maximum possible, or according to the data of a successful cluster).

Moreover, the significance of each of the selected factors, based on the average importance assessment score (Table 1), is different, which will be taken into account in calculating the share of the influence of each factor.

Regarding the results of the expert assessment, we note the following. In our opinion, the results of the expert assessment reflect the specifics of tourism in Russia, where one of the most important problems is the lack of infrastructure (we reflected this in previous studies, and it was also confirmed by the existence of relevant state programs, such as “Development of Tourism Infrastructure”). In addition, in conditions of the underdevelopment of domestic tourism, many presently successful tourist clusters were formed without the presence of existing tourist attraction facilities; rather, they had to build them, building new infrastructure and tourist attraction facilities (for example, the tourist clusters Park Loga, Skornyakovo-Arkhangelskoye, Kudykina Gora, etc.).

At the same time, we note that the level of development is determined for already functioning clusters, the creation of which was due to the presence of tourist potential in the territory (according to [26]), or for emerging clusters, in which attractions and tourist sights are developed and created on the basis of the same factors of tourist potential.

Next, the selected factors were grouped according to functional characteristics (

Table 2. Distribution of factors influencing the development of a tourism cluster by functional group.

No.	Functional Groups of Factors j		Selected Factors Influencing the Development of the Tourism Cluster Xi	Group Indicators of the Level of Development of the Tourism Cluster Ψj
1	Infrastructure factors	j = 1 group	X1—level of provision of travel companies with hotel stock	Ψ1 Indicator of the level of infrastructure development Ψ1 = f (X1; X2; X3; X4; X5)
2			X2—level of comfort of the hotel stock
3			X3—level of physical deterioration of the available hotel stock (depreciation)
4			X4—level of obsolescence of the hotel stock
5			X5—level of development of transport infrastructure (availability of tourist sites)
6	Customer focus factors	j = 2 group	X6—nomenclature (range) of services offered	Ψ2 Indicator of the level of customer focus: Ψ2 = f (X6; X7; X8; X9; X10)
7			X7—level of quality of services provided
8			X8—number of areas of the tourist activity
9			X9—level of competitiveness of the offered tourism services
10			X10—level of development of advertising activities
11	Factors of social and personnel policy	j = 3 group	X11—availability of professionally trained specialists	Ψ3 Indicator of the level of social and personnel policy: Ψ3 = f (X11; X12; X13; X14; X15)
12			X12—opportunities for vocational education or advanced training in the region
13			X13—level of average salary of employees
14			X14—unemployment rate in the region
15			X15—growth rate of jobs in travel companies with growing clients
16	Financial and economic factors	j = 4 group	X16—percentage of funding for the tourism industry from the regional budget	Ψ4 Financial and economic indicator: Ψ4 = f (X16; X17; X18; X19; X20)
17			X17—percentage of financing of the tourism industry through private business
18			X18—dynamics of the cost of tourism services
19			X19—volume of investment in new construction
20			X20—volume of investments in renovation and major repairs of existing accommodation facilities

).

Infrastructure factors are assessed by a group indicator (Ψ₁), which reflects the level of infrastructure development in the cluster and the region where it is located. The factors of customer focus (Ψ₂) are the most important component characterizing the range of tourist services offered, the level of quality of services provided, the dynamics of changes in the number of clients, and the level of development of advertising activities. The group factors of social and personnel policy (Ψ₃) are aimed at rationality and staffing, which determines the sufficient number of qualified personnel to organize the reception of tourists and decides the level of unemployment in the region in which the tourism cluster is developing. The group of financial and economic factors (Ψ₄) is aimed at the development of both the cluster and the region due to sensitivity to economic stability, on which the purchasing power of consumers and the amount of funds invested in the development of tourism infrastructure and the cluster depend. Also, this group of factors is interconnected with the role of the state in the development of tourism clusters, which correlates with [10].

At the same time, we will take into account that the influence of each of the particular factors on the group indicator is different, based on the results of the expert assessment of their importance (Table 1). Therefore, it is necessary to estimate the share of the influence of private factors on the group indicator of the level of development of the tourism cluster by group, which is proposed to be taken into account according to the following model:

$${\alpha }_i={\displaystyle \frac{b_{\mathrm{x}\mathrm{i}}}{{{\sum }_{i=0}^{n}b}_{\mathrm{x}\mathrm{i}}}};{{\sum }_{i=0}^n\alpha }_i=1;$$

(4)

where α_i is the share of the influence of factor Xi on the group indicator of the level of development of the tourism cluster; n is the number of factors in the group; and b_xi is the average score for assessing the importance of factor Xi according to the expert assessment.

That is, the share of the influence of each factor on the group indicator for the group is determined as the quotient of dividing the average score occupied by the factor on the Likert scale by the sum of the average scores for the group. This determination of the shares of influence helps to increase the objectivity of the assessment.

Then, the formula for calculating the group indicator of the level of development of the tourism cluster is as follows:

$$\begin{gathered} j_j={{\sum }_{i=1}^{n}x}_i\times {\alpha }_i \\ i=\overline{1,n}, \end{gathered}$$

(5)

where n is the number of factors in the group j (n = 5)

In order to model the dependence of the integral indicator of the level of development of the tourism cluster (K) from the selected factors, we proposed ranking them according to the group indicator of the level of development Ψj and the weight (share) of the influence of groups of factors β_j.

It is proposed to determine the shares of the influence of group indicators on the integral indicator of the level of development of a tourism cluster similarly to the shares of the influence of private factors on the group (Formula (4)) as the quotient of dividing the sum of the average scores of factors of group j, occupied by factors on a Likert scale, by the sum of the average scores for all groups (all 20 selected factors):

$${\beta }_j={\displaystyle \frac{{\sum _{\mathrm{i}=1}^{\mathrm{n}}b}_{\mathrm{x}\mathrm{i}\mathrm{j}}}{{\sum _{j=1}^m\sum _{i=1}^{n}b}_{\mathrm{x}\mathrm{i}}}}$$

(6)

where β_j is the share of the influence of group indicator Ψj on the integral indicator of the level of development of the tourism cluster K, and m is the number of group indicators (m = 4).

Having calculated the group indicators of the level of development of the tourism cluster according to the four identified groups of factors, according to the results of the expert assessment, the influence of each group of factors on the integral indicator of the level of development of the tourism cluster is also uneven. In general, the formula for the integral indicator of the level of development of a tourism cluster based on a two-stage multi-criteria assessment is presented as follows:

$$\begin{gathered} \mathrm{K}={{\sum }_{\mathrm{j}=1}^{\mathrm{m}}\mathsf{\beta }}_{\mathrm{j}}\times {\mathsf{\Psi }}_{\mathrm{j}}={\beta }_1{\Psi }_1+{\beta }_2{\Psi }_2+{\beta }_3{\Psi }_3+{\beta }_4{\Psi }_4{\Psi \mathrm{K}}_{\max } \\ \mathrm{m}=4 \end{gathered}$$

(7)

Based on the model for calculating the integral indicator of the level of development of a tourism cluster (Formula (7)), it is possible to determine the most significant group of factors, according to the criterion β_j—max, and highlight the corresponding priority direction for the development of the tourism cluster, that is, that group of factors, to improve which control actions need to be directed in the first place.

Considering that the optimal value of the integral indicator of the level of development of the tourism cluster K tends to a maximum, it is further advisable to determine the overall development potential and its constituent reserves for the growth of factors and group indicators.

We propose defining the reserves for the growth of factor indicators as the difference between the maximum possible and actual value of each of the factors of development of the tourism cluster:

$$r_{\mathrm{x}\mathrm{o}\mathrm{i}}=x_i^{\mathrm{o}\mathrm{p}\mathrm{t}}-x_i^{\mathrm{f}\mathrm{a}\mathrm{c}\mathrm{t}}$$

(8)

Reserves for the growth of group indicators are determined in a similar way:

$$r_j{=}_j^{\mathrm{o}\mathrm{p}\mathrm{t}}{-}_j^{\mathrm{f}\mathrm{a}\mathrm{c}\mathrm{t}}$$

(9)

The reserve of the integral indicator of the development of the tourism cluster will accordingly be the sum of the reserves of group indicators:

$$R_o=r_1+r_2+r_3+r_4$$

(10)

At the same time, the economic meaning of this reserve is to determine the overall development potential of the tourism cluster:

$$R_o=K_{\mathrm{m}\mathrm{a}\mathrm{x}}-K_{\mathrm{i}f}$$

(11)

Note that the measure of all proposed indicators is the value of the share by which the cluster is developed or by which it can still be developed, based on the value of the potential. For example, the potential value r₁ = 0.7 will mean that the cluster is provided with infrastructure by only 30% (or 0.3), and its shortage and the possibility of development is 70% (or 0.7), that is, in this cluster, it is important, and we need to build and modernize its infrastructure.

Based on the priority of criterion indicators (Ψ_i) and identified reserves (r_i) the management of the tourism cluster plans to carry out measures to increase the overall development potential of the tourism cluster, taking into account the limit of financial capabilities and calculating the expected economic effect in the form of growth in tourist flows. The greater the integral indicator of the level of development of a tourism cluster, the better developed the tourism cluster. The greater the reserve, the more this cluster can be developed to improve this group of factors (for which the reserve of the group indicator is greater).

4. Results

Based on the results of the expert assessment (Table 1) and calculations using Formula (6), the following values were obtained for the shares of the influence of group indicators on the integral indicator of the development of the tourism cluster: β₁ = 0.34; β₂ = 0.24; β₃ = 0.19; β₄ = 0.23. The weight of the groups of indicators as a result of the expert assessment can be presented as the sequence

$${\mathsf{\beta }}_1\gg {\mathsf{\beta }}_2>{\mathsf{\beta }}_4>{\mathsf{\beta }}_3$$

(12)

on the basis of which an unambiguous conclusion follows about the extreme importance of infrastructure (urban planning) factors for the development of the tourism potential of the cluster.

The weight of factors also varies within each group. As a result of the calculation, the following system of additive dependencies of group indicators of tourism cluster development on relevant factors was obtained:

Ψ₁ = 0.35 × X1 + 0.19 × X2 + 0.17 × X3 + 0.14 × X4 + 0.16 × X5

(13)

Ψ₂ = 0.2 × X6 + 0.25 × X7 + 0.21 × X8 + 0.14 × X9 + 0.19 × X10

(14)

Ψ₃ = 0.25 × X11 + 0.2 × X12 + 0.15 × X13 + 0.19 × X14 + 0.21 × X15

(15)

Ψ₄ = 0.19 × X16 + 0.18 × X17 + 0.2 × X18 + 0.2 × X19 + 0.21 × X20

(16)

Based on calculations based on the results of the expert assessment, in the total development potential of the P_o cluster, more than one-third of the reserves fall on the improvement of infrastructure factors, with the following distribution within the group:

-

Level of provision of hotel and housing stock (r₁)—34%;

-

Comfort level of the placement stock (r₂)—19%;

-

Level of physical wear and tear (r₃)—17%;

-

Level of obsolescence (r₄)—14%;

-

Level of transport infrastructure development (r₅)—16%.

To calculate the values of factor indicators, a number of formulas based on the model are proposed (Formula (3)). Let us present the resulting formulas for the factors of the infrastructure group.

The first single-factor indicator is the indicator of infrastructure development (X₁), which characterizes the level of provision of a tourism cluster with hotel real estate objects. The level of provision of the cluster with hotel real estate objects X₁ is determined by the following formula:

$$\mathrm{X}₁={\displaystyle \frac{m_f}{m_n}}$$

(17)

where m_f is the actual hotel stock (m²), and m_n is the standard (or required, maximum) hotel stock (m²).

The comfort level of the tourist accommodation fund X₂ is calculated using the formula:

$$\mathrm{X}₂={\displaystyle \frac{f_o}{f_e}}$$

(18)

where X₃ is the actual number of types of amenities and equipment of the housing stock, and $f_o{f}_e$ is a reference list of amenities (the maximum possible or normatively established).

The list of hotel comfort elements is described, for example, in [22,59].

The level of physical depreciation of the hotel stock X₃ is assessed by the formula:

$${\mathrm{X}}_3={\displaystyle \frac{I_f}{F}}$$

(19)

where I_f is the actual physical accumulated depreciation of the stock (from the inventory book of fixed assets, etc., i.e., the difference between their full accounting and residual book values), and F is the full accounting value of hotel facilities.

The level of obsolescence of the hotel accommodation stock X₄ is determined by the formula:

$${\mathrm{X}}_4=1-{\displaystyle \frac{c_p-c_v}{c_p}}$$

(20)

where $c_p$ is the initial cost of the fund, and $c_v$ is the replacement cost of the fund.

State of the art transport infrastructure X₅ (availability of tourist sites) is determined by the formula presented below:

$${\mathrm{X}}_5={\displaystyle \frac{t_f}{t_n}}$$

(21)

where $t_f$ is the actual availability of transport, both public and company-owned, and $t_n$ is the amount of transport required by standard or calculation (for example, in [16,33]).

Based on the proposed methods and formulas, the significance of the development factors of the tourism cluster of the Vladimir region, the city of Kirzhach, was assessed. The region is included in the Golden Ring route. The main tourist areas that are most often visited include the cities of Vladimir and Suzdal, which are part of the Vladimir–Suzdal Museum-Reserve, which has eight UNESCO World Heritage Sites of tourism potential. This cluster was selected as representative of an already well-known tourism region with an established infrastructure and reputation. Tourism in the Kirzhach district includes 107 cultural heritage sites, as well as open-air exhibitions. On the territory of the Kirzhach district, nine architectural ensembles have been preserved, including the Holy Annunciation Monastery, as well as a number of museums and other objects of tourist attraction.

Next, calculations were made of all indicators of the existing development of the tourism cluster at three levels: private or single indicators (xi), group indicators (Ψ_j) and integral indicators (K). The main initial data necessary for calculating indicators according to the proposed methodological tools are summarized in Appendix B. Actual indicators are taken according to regional and municipal statistics and reports, as well as the infrastructure development indices planned—taking into account the strategic guidelines for the development of tourism in the city of Kirzhach.

The results of calculating the development indicator of the Kirzhach tourism cluster in the Kirzhach district of the Vladimir region are summarized in

Table 3. Results of calculation of single-factor indicators in the Kirzhach cluster.

Selected Factors Influencing the Development of a Tourism Cluster	Actual Meaning	Optimal (Planned) Meaning
X1—level of provision of travel companies with hotel stock	0.82	0.94
X2—level of comfort of the accommodation fund	0.86	0.86
X3—level of physical deterioration of the fund	0.60	0.75
X4—level of obsolescence of the fund	0.40	0.70
X5—level of development of transport infrastructure	0.78	0.84
X6—nomenclature (range) of services offered	0.63	0.88
X7—level of quality of services provided	0.07	0.20
X8—number of areas of activity	0.80	1.00
X9—level of specialization of services offered	0.08	0.13
X10—level of development of advertising activities	0.80	0.90
X11—availability of professionally trained specialists	0.70	0.80
X12—opportunities for vocational education or advanced training in the region	0.15	0.20
X13—level of average salary of employees (comparison with the reference region of Moscow)	0.45	0.56
X14—unemployment rate in the region	0.86	0.86
X15—the growth rate of jobs in travel companies with the growth of clients	0.993	0.994
X16—percentage of funding for the tourism industry from the regional budget	0.0040	0.0037
X17—percentage of tourism industry financing from private business	1.00	0.99
X18—dynamics of the cost of tourism services	0.938	0.941
X19—volume of investment in new construction	0.05	0.06
X20—volume of investments in renovation and major repairs of existing accommodation facilities	0.05	0.06

.

The optimal values of the indicators are calculated according to the methodology given in this article based on the data of the municipal program of the Kirzhach district’s “Tourism Development”.

Further, in accordance with the proposed methodological tools, reserves are calculated for each of the factors and criterion indicators. Determined via expert assessment, taking into account target indicators for the municipal program of the Kirzhach district’s “Tourism Development”, the optimal values are presented in

Table 4. Actual and optimal values of indicators.

Factor Group Level	Actual Value	Optimal Planned Value
Ψ1	0.69	0.82
Ψ2	0.47	0.62
Ψ3	0.65	0.70
Ψ4	0.390	0.391

.

Next, we need to develop a set of measures aimed at ensuring the effective development of the tourism cluster in the city of Kirzhach, taking into account the results of calculating the tourism cluster development indicator. For this purpose, reserve-possible potentials are calculated for selected factor indicators (r_i), by group (R_j), as well as the potential for the entire cluster (P_o), the calculation results of which are summarized in

Table 5. Results of calculation of reserve potentials for selected group indicators for city of Kirzhach.

Factor Group Level	Development Reserves by Groups of Factors (Rj)
Ψ1	0.58
Ψ2	0.53
Ψ3	0.37
Ψ4	0.59

.

As for the Kirzhach cluster, existing facilities and construction projects, as can be seen from the calculations, do not fully exploit the existing potential of the cluster, so further development is possible both through the reconstruction and adaptation of merchant houses (which will be effective according to [23,25,38]) and through the construction of tourism infrastructure facilities. The city has many old merchant houses that can be modernized into tourist real estate and tourist accommodation facilities, which will have a diverse effect according to [25]. And there is a free plot of land with existing tourist attractions, on which a new hotel complex can be built.

Based on the specifics of financing the infrastructure of tourism clusters (analyzed in [20,60,61]), it is assumed that there is mainly private investment in projects for the construction and modernization of hotel real estate, as well as joint investment. The initiator and one of the investors of the project is OJSC Kirzhach Printing House. The layout of the tourism cluster and the hotel real estate construction projects planned as part of the implementation of the infrastructure potential is presented in Figure 2.

Thus, as tourist infrastructure facilities near Novo-Kitezh, it is planned to build a summer concert hall with 1500 seats and a public catering facility—a restaurant or cafe with 500 seats. It is planned to develop objects of tourist attraction, in particular, the creation of a recreation area, “Copper Island”, on the site of the remains of a copper smelter with an area for walking, an art object, gazebos and a stand. It is also planned to create museums (a museum of copper and brass and a museum dedicated to the Vladimir militia). Such development of the cluster will have a synergistic effect and contribute to the growth of tourist flows both in the Kirzhach district and throughout the Vladimir region, with a concomitant increase in tax revenues, budget income and the number of jobs.

5. Discussion

The results obtained and the proposed methods indicate the importance of taking into account the factors of the development potential of tourism clusters. At the same time, we note that we are talking not only about the tourist potential [26], but, to a greater extent, about the infrastructural or urban planning potential, which we consider for clusters that have factors of attractiveness in the territory for tourists (attractions, etc.), or create these factors when building a cluster (as happened in Loga Park, the Kudykina Gora clusters, Farm and Village and a number of other tourist clusters in Russia).

The choice of factors influencing the level of development of a tourism cluster is consistent with the results of other researchers, for example, [25].

The absolute importance and significance of factors of attractiveness in the territory for tourists, such as attractions, climate, ecology, natural resources and other characteristics of the territory, indicated in the works [17,21,25,26], is consistent with the results of the first stage of our study. In the second stage of our study, infrastructural factors were identified as the most significant factors, which is also consistent with the conclusions of previous studies [16,22,24,62,63] and, in our opinion, reflects the specifics of tourism in Russia, where one of the most important problems is the lack of infrastructure.

This specificity is typical for both the Vladimir region and the cluster in the city of Kirzhach. Despite the presence of an effective market mechanism (growth in demand for tourism services—growth in investment in infrastructure), Kirzhach, like most similar clusters related to domestic tourism, where the tourist flow consists mainly of residents of neighboring regions, is not as attractive to investors as Sochi, for example. Therefore, investors did not invest funds until the state implemented various investment incentive programs. In addition, there is state financing of the project “Development of tourism infrastructure”, which also confirms the existing problem in tourist clusters of a shortage of not only hotels, but also roads, parking lots, cafes, water and gas pipelines to tourist clusters and similar facilities. We consider it advisable to test a hypothesis about the applicability of expert assessment results for other similar regions and clusters in further work.

The findings about the maximum importance of infrastructure factors for the effective development of a tourism cluster and the availability of tourist accommodation facilities as the main factor indicator in this group correlates with the conclusions [62] about the need to invest in the construction of new tourist accommodation facilities to meet growing demand. The significance of the factors of the quality of the provided tourist services and the comfort of the tourist accommodation stock confirms the results of the study [63], according to which it is necessary not only to increase the volume of construction and create hotel real estate, but, to a greater extent, to increase the efficiency of hotels and reduce the gap between hotels of different companies.

The research and calculation of the development potential of a tourism cluster according to various criteria will help increase the sustainability of the cluster, including by reducing overtourism [64,65,66,67] (despite the efficiency of hotel construction in popular clusters, when calculating it may reveal that the potential in this area is almost exhausted, and, accordingly, investments will be directed to less developed clusters or to other types of tourism infrastructure). Also, thanks to calculations of the level and potential of cluster development by groups of factors, where to direct management influences, including government ones, will be clear and justified [68,69].

An increase in the volume of construction and reconstruction in the presence of the potential of a tourism cluster for this group of factors may face a number of problems, including a lack of funds and limited sources of financing [20]. Limitations for other groups of factors include an incorrect understanding of customer focus, including in the design and construction of tourism infrastructure, and errors in marketing [70].

The limitations of using the proposed methods for calculating the level and development potential of a tourism cluster are, firstly, the dimension lessness of the determined values (shares or percentages of the maximum), and secondly, the need to correlate actual values with the maximum possible or optimal indicators. Therefore, the direction for improving the proposed formulas and approaches is to correlate indicators of the level and development potential of a tourism cluster with measurable values (monetary units, volumetric construction indicators in m², etc.), as well as the principles for determining the optimal values of factor indicators included in the models proposed in this article. This improvement is not a problem, since the optimal values can be determined based on regulatory requirements or best practices (including those given in the considered literature references on the main factors); additionally, measurable values can be obtained by finding the calculated share or percentage of the maximum amount of funds or construction volumes, etc.

To convert relative units of potential measurement (fractions or %) into absolute ones, it is necessary to determine the maximum possible and appropriate parameters for the development of the territory, which is usually carried out according to urban planning documentation and material plans for the development of the territory of the tourist cluster. Hence, if the maximum volume of hotel construction for a certain tourist cluster is 10,000 m², and the potential is r₁ = 0.7, then it is possible and advisable to build another 7000 m² of hotel real estate. When calculating optimal factor indicators, we suggest using normative program values defined as targets by the leadership of the region or cluster in development programs or strategies. It is also possible to use the values available in successful effective tourism clusters. Namely, the methods of calculating these indicators in programs and master plans are a promising area of research.

As a direction for further research, we will highlight further calculations and details of infrastructure potential (potential based on types of hotel real estate, quality categories, integrated development of the territory, assessment of the effectiveness of the adaptation of cultural heritage sites, etc. [23]); the prevention of overtourism [71] by calculating the level of and potential for the development of a tourism cluster, taking into account factors of sustainable development [72]; energy efficiency and environmental friendliness when planning the construction and reconstruction of tourism infrastructure (which is consistent with the results of [73,74,75]); and the use of digital technologies when planning the optimal use of existing potential [76].

6. Conclusions

The use of the proposed formulas and models for the quantitative assessment of influencing factors and determining the development potential of a tourism cluster allows us to determine the state of regional tourism clusters, identify the overall development potential of clusters, develop an action plan for improvement, analyze the provision of tourism clusters with hotel facilities and tourism infrastructure and make informed decisions on the development of a tourism cluster. Calculation of the level and potential of development with a group of infrastructure factors, and specifically with the quantity and quality of tourism infrastructure in a cluster or region, can be used to justify the formation and determination of priority directions for the development of a cluster, in comprehensive planning of the territory, and in determining the directions of investment in the creation of tourist facilities and the direction of the state support of certain tourist destinations and clusters.