System Dynamics Simulation and Influencing Factors of the Interaction between Urbanization and Eco-Environment in Hebei Province, China

Round 1

Reviewer 1 Report

See the attached word file.

Comments for author File: Comments.pdf

The English writing is good, but a few places can be improved.

Author Response

Reviewer1

Q1. 1. Two places in the abstract need to be revised.

“… the interaction between urbanization and eco-environment in Hebei Province from 2019 to 2035 was dynamically simulated…”

Suggest adding the phrase, “based on the historical data from 2000 to 2019.”

“The constructed SD model was real …”

The word, “real,” is not appropriate in this situation, and needs to be changed.

Answer:

Thanks for your suggestions. We have revised the abstract. the revised content is as follows:

the interaction between urbanization and eco-environment in Hebei Province from 2019 to 2035 was dynamically simulated based on the historical data from 2000 to 2019,

(1) The constructed SD model was reliable and effective,

Q2. Page 2 Line 52

KFC - When an abbreviation first appears, it should be spelled out.

Answer:

Thanks for your suggestions, we made a spelling error and changed KFC to EKC, and it was spelled out. The revised content is as follows:

Existing studies have investigated the measurement, spatiotemporal development characteristics, and mechanisms of the interaction between urbanization and the eco-environment using improved Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) models[6], coupled coordination degree models[7-9], grey correlation degree models[10], Tapio models[11], etc.

Q3. Page 3 Lines 135-146

The time durations of various data sources are not consistent with one another. The authors should tell how to reconcile the differences.

Answer:

Thanks for your suggestions and comments, we have provided additional explanations on the data sources, and the supplementary content is as follows:

It should be noted that Hebei Economic Yearbook is adjusted to Hebei Statistical Year-book after 2019, and the deadline of statistical data is consistent. In order to better establish functional relationships between parameters in the SD model, the study expands the time dimension of data collection as much as possible, and there are some differences in the duration of data sources. In addition, economic statistics are con-verted based on the constant prices in 2000.

Q4. What do the different colored arrows indicate in Figure 2?

Answer:

Thank you for your question. The different colored arrows in Figure 2 do not have special indicative significance. In order to avoid disturbing readers, we have modified the original image and unified the colors. The revised Figure 2 is as follows:

Q5. Page 5 Line 197

“Including 94 variables such as …”

In a later section, the authors mentioned that they selected 14 variables. Please clarify how many variables were used in training (calibrating) the simulations.

Answer:

Thanks for your suggestions. Perhaps the manuscript expression caused a reading misunderstanding. We used 94 different variables for modeling, and in order to verify the reliability of the model, 14 main variables were selected from all variables to test the average relative errors between simulated values and actual statistical values. Therefore, we have revised the expression of these two parts, and the revised content is as follows:

The entire model consists of 94 different variables, such as birth rate, total population, GDP (2000 prices), total energy consumption (10000 tons of coal equivalent), and total pollutant emissions.

Various indicators from 2000 to 2019 were simulated using the constructed SD model, in order to verify the reliability of the model simulation effect, 14 main variables were selected from all variables to test the average relative errors between their simulated values and actual statistical values from 2000 to 2019(Table 4).

Q6. Page 6 Figure 3

It is too clouded for reading and understanding. The authors should redesign this diagram or remove it if this diagram is not critical to this research.

Answer:

Thanks for your suggestions. We think that Figure 3 should be retained and redesigned and modified. The revised Figure 3 is:

Q7. Page 12 starting from Line 341

Based on several paragraphs on this page, the separations of the four simulation scenarios were the urbanization rates in 2030 and 2035. The urbanization rates in 203 were all at 70%, while the urbanization rates in 2035 were 72, 74, 71, and 73, respectively. More explanations need to be provided as to why the authors chose these percentages.

Answer:

Thank you for your suggestion. We have added some explanations in the paragraphs of the scenario setting in the revision. The revised contents are as follows:

(1) Combining the planning value, the scenario sets the urbanization rate at 70% in 2030, and considering the future decline in urban population growth rate and the slowdown in the rate of population urbanization, the urbanization rate is set at 72% in 2035.

(2) Thus, the scenario sets the urbanization rate at 70% in 2030, and in combination with the target requirements of some prefecture level cities in Hebei Province to achieve 75% or even higher urbanization rate by 2035, the urbanization rate in the province will continue to maintain a high growth rate, with a set urbanization rate of 74% in 2035.

(3) At the same time, ensuring a moderate GDP growth rate and the level of urbanization development, the GDP growth rate is set at 6% in 2030, 5.5% in 2035. Considering the target of urbanization rate of around 70% in the population development plan of Hebei Province in 2035 and maintaining a moderate growth rate, the urbanization rate is set at 70% in 2030 and 71% in 2035.

(4) Thus, the parameter values of the scenario adopt the median values of the three control variables mentioned above. For example, according to the corresponding planning values, the urbanization rate is set to 70% in 2030, and taking the middle value of the above three scenarios and it is set to 73% in 2035.

Q8. In addition, the paper said in several places, “the simulations were from 2019 to 2035.” The authors should address this discrepancy in the revision.

Answer:

Thank you for your comment, we have removed some redundant expressions and modified the simulation time range (from 2020 to 2035) in the revision.

Thank you and all the reviewers for the good suggestions and comments again.

Sincerely yours,

Hefeng Wang

Author Response File: Author Response.docx

Reviewer 2 Report

Based on the system dynamics model, the paper simulated the interaction between urbanization and eco-environment in Hebei Province under different scenarios in 2019-2035, adopted the single indicator evaluation method, distance coordination coupling degree and the symbiosis degree to determine the optimal development scenarios, and identified the key bidirectional influence factors of urbanization and eco-environment by applying the grey correlation degree model. The paper perspective is unique and the structure of the paper is complete, but there are some improvements that can be made, as follows:

1、The paper proposed to select future scenarios of urbanization and eco-environment development planning from two dimensions of coupling and decoupling, which can briefly describe how the research can be carried out from coupling and decoupling.

2、The paper had extended the SD model of the interaction between urbanization and eco-environment in Hebei Province in terms of demographic, economic, social, spatial, and environmental aspects, and contains a total of 94 variables (rows 194-197), which has been relatively comprehensive. However, a brief explanation is needed as to why the constraining role of natural geographic elements such as topography and geomorphology is not considered.

3、The paper carried out the entire process of model construction, scenario simulation, preferred scenarios to factors identification, and identified the key bidirectional influence factors of urbanization and eco-environment. Thorough the research on the mechanism was relatively, it is suggested that in the discussion section to briefly explore the application of the results of the research, and how to build a model of the urbanization development that is suitable for the eco-environment and support the regional sustainable development.

4、The language formulation in line 83 suggests labeling the cited literature.

5、The paper should have a schematic map of the study area.

6、There are several irregular reference citation in the paper, such as line 148.

Author Response

Reviewer2

Q1. The paper proposed to select future scenarios of urbanization and eco-environment development planning from two dimensions of coupling and decoupling, which can briefly describe how the research can be carried out from coupling and decoupling.

Answer:

    Thank you for your suggestions. We have rewritten the sentences and provided briefly describe, and the revised contents are as follows:

(Lines 121-129) Based on the constructed evaluation index system and the proposed symbiosis hypothesis between urbanization and eco-environment in the previous study, the single indicator evaluation method, distance coordination coupling degree model, and symbiosis degree model were comprehensively adopted, and the study compared and analyzed the evolution trends of coupling coordination degree and symbiosis between urbanization and eco-environment under different scenarios, as well as the mode and size of mutual influence between the two from the dimensions of coupling and decoupling, in order to select future scenarios for urbanization and eco-environment development plan.

(Lines 297-301) The comprehensive urbanization level estimated by simulation data is the main quality parameter of urbanization, and the comprehensive level of eco-environment is the main quality parameter of eco-environment for calculating the degree of symbiosis to decouple the mode and size of mutual influence between the two.

Q2. The paper had extended the SD model of the interaction between urbanization and eco-environment in Hebei Province in terms of demographic, economic, social, spatial, and environmental aspects, and contains a total of 94 variables (rows 194-197), which has been relatively comprehensive. However, a brief explanation is needed as to why the constraining role of natural geographic elements such as topography and geomorphology is not considered.

Answer:

    Thank you for your suggestions. We have added briefly describe, and the revised content is as follows:

(Lines 233-239) Based on the diagram of the causal relationship between urbanization and the eco-environment system in Hebei Province, considering the relatively small changes in natural geographic elements such as topography and landforms at the provincial level, as well as the availability of corresponding time series data, this study does not consider the restrictive effects of natural geographic elements, and extend the SD model of the interaction between urbanization and eco-environment from the aspects of population, economy, society, space, and environment (Fig.4).

Q3. The paper carried out the entire process of model construction, scenario simulation, preferred scenarios to factors identification, and identified the key bidirectional influence factors of urbanization and eco-environment. Thorough the research on the mechanism was relatively, it is suggested that in the discussion section to briefly explore the application of the results of the research, and how to build a model of the urbanization development that is suitable for the eco-environment and support the regional sustainable development.

Answer:

Thank you for your suggestions. We have added the application of the results of the study in the discussion section, the revised content is as follows:

(Lines 745-761) The identification of the main factors reflects some problems faced by the coordinated development of urbanization and eco-environment in Hebei Province currently and in the future. Based on the optimal result, the urbanization priority development scenario is suitable for short and medium-term planning, while the friendly development scenario is more suitable for long-term planning. Therefore, in the short and medium-term, the government should take county towns as important carriers, coordinate urban and rural population, territorial space, and socio-economic development, emphasize rational resource allocation and eco-environment protection, deepen urbanization construction, and improve the level of urbanization in the province. In the long-term, the government should emphasize the relationship between the urbanization development quality and ecological environment protection, clarify the main problems of the urbanization development is facing, adhere to the problem and policy guidance, implement measures from aspects such as food supply, water resources, territorial space development, and pollution control, improve the quality of urbanization development, enhance the carrying capacity of eco-environment, and promote the coordinated development of urbanization and eco-environment in the province.

Q4. The language formulation in line 83 suggests labeling the cited literature.

Answer:

Thank you for your suggestions. We have added the cited literature.

Q5. The paper should have a schematic map of the study area.

Answer:

Thank you for your suggestions. We have added a schematic map of the study area and revised the figure numbers of the manuscript. The schematic map is:

Figure 1 The study area

Q6. There are several irregular reference citation in the paper, such as line 148.

Answer:

Thank you for your suggestions. We have checked and revised the irregular reference citations in the revision.

Thank you and all the reviewers for the good suggestions and comments again.

Sincerely yours,

Hefeng Wang

Author Response File: Author Response.docx

Reviewer 3 Report

Authors aimed to simluate the dynamics between urbanization and eco-environment in Hebei province, and based on simulation results detecing the influencing factors. This manuscript had some novelty. However, several problems that must be addressed.

(1) Authors should improve their English language writing by native speaker or professional editing company.

(2) Authors selected few indicators to simulate, the urbanziation and eco-environment system both belonged to complex systems, if the selected indicators are not enough, the simuation results might not be correct, hard to reveal the actual change trend.

(3) You should provide a location map of your study area, you just talk too much about the surroundings of Hebei province, but where are Hebei province, readers won't have a obvious clue. Strongly suggest authors to draw a location map.  In addition, in scientifc paper, you should focus on the background of Hebei province, what the situation facing now, why the man-land relationship is urgent.

(4) Authors simulated the period of 2019-2035, how to validate your results, suggest authors to extend the period for example 2015-2035, then you have using the existing data to validate the simulation results that if the simulation results were consistent with the calculated results, that you can to simulate the future period, this can let the manuscript more convinable. In addition, the discussion part, you should divide this part into several parts, for example the validation of simulation results, the implication of simulation results, and further study.

(5) Suggest authors to draw maps of Hebei province at city scale or county scale, from the spatial perspective to display the simulated CCD change trend and the driving factors analysis results.

Authors should improve their English language writing by native speaker or professional editing company.

Author Response

Reviewer3

Q1. Authors should improve their English language writing by native speaker or professional editing company.

Answer:

Thank you for your suggestions. We have improved English language writing of the manuscript by professional editing company.

Q2. Authors selected few indicators to simulate, the urbanziation and eco-environment system both belonged to complex systems, if the selected indicators are not enough, the simuation results might not be correct, hard to reveal the actual change trend.

Answer:

Your comment is very proper. Based on the model boundary analysis, we consider the data availability, and select 94 variables from population, economy, society, space, environment, etc. to construct an SD model for the interaction between urbanization and eco-environment in Hebei Province. We believe that the current research on the number of parameters is feasible, and of course, we also realize that the values of model parameters and the complexity of modeling variables will bring many uncertainties to the simulation results. We have briefly discussed this issue in the discussion section (Lines 762-771 in the revision).

Q3. You should provide a location map of your study area, you just talk too much about the surroundings of Hebei province, but where are Hebei province, readers won't have a obvious clue. Strongly suggest authors to draw a location map. In addition, in scientifc paper, you should focus on the background of Hebei province, what the situation facing now, why the man-land relationship is urgent.

Answer:

Thank you for your suggestions and comments, according to your suggestions, we have added a schematic map of the study area and revised the figure numbers of the manuscript. In addition, we have also added some background descriptions of Hebei province in the revision. The revision context is as follow：

Figure 1 The study area

It is facing eco-environment issues such as air pollution, water quality decline, land resources shortage and eco-environment pattern imbalance. All these issues restrict the development process of urbanization. Simultaneously, the low level of urbaniza-tion also brings about a lack of attention to environmental protection in urban and ru-ral construction. The ecological and living environment in urban and rural areas are worrying, and there are problems such as poor environment and fragmented layout in some areas, which restrict the sustainable development of economy and society and the improvement of the eco-environment quality in the province.

Q4. Authors simulated the period of 2019-2035, how to validate your results, suggest authors to extend the period for example 2015-2035, then you have using the existing data to validate the simulation results that if the simulation results were consistent with the calculated results, that you can to simulate the future period, this can let the manuscript more convinable. In addition, the discussion part, you should divide this part into several parts, for example the validation of simulation results, the implication of simulation results, and further study.

Answer:

Thank you for your suggestions and comments. Before simulating the period of 2020 -2035, we first selected 14 main variables for simulation validation and calculated the average relative error between their simulated values and actual statistical values from 2000 to 2019. Simultaneously GDP growth rate and urbanization rate were selected for model sensitivity analysis. The reliability and stability of the model were comprehensively verified through the two methods. In the discussion section, we discussed the overall research methods and ideas, quantitative optimization of simulation scenarios, identification of influencing factors and application of simulation results, and further study based on the study aims. Therefore, the frameworks of the discussion have not been reprocessed. Of course, the discussion ideas you provided are also a very good choice.

Q5. Suggest authors to draw maps of Hebei province at city scale or county scale, from the spatial perspective to display the simulated CCD change trend and the driving factors analysis results.

Answer:

Thank you for your suggestions. This manuscript conducted SD simulation, CCD calculation, and analysis of influencing factors at the provincial level, and did not involve city and county level scales in space. Therefore, we believe that spatial expression from the provincial level as a whole is not significant. However, for city and county scales, displaying simulated CCD change trends and driving factor analysis results from a spatial perspective can more effectively reveal spatial differences, which will also be necessary. You provide us with a very good suggestion, which will also be the next step we need to explore at the city and county level.

Thank you and all the reviewers for the good suggestions and comments again.

Sincerely yours,

Hefeng Wang

Author Response File: Author Response.docx

Round 2

Reviewer 3 Report

Authors have addressed all my comments.