5.1. Evolutionary Characteristics of the Supply and Demand Development Level of the Health Industry
Based on Equations (1)–(13), this paper calculates the supply and demand development level of the health industry in various regions and divides the 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) into 4 major economic zones: the eastern, central, western, and northeastern regions. (The eastern region includes Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong, and Hainan. The central region includes Shanxi, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, and Hunan. The western region includes Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang, and Tibet. The northeastern region includes Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang). Thus, the changing trends of the supply and demand development levels of the health industry in each region are illustrated, as shown in
Figure 1.
From the perspective of supply development, the supply development level of China’s health industry shows a trend of low-level steady growth and widening regional disparities year by year. Overall analysis shows that the supply level of China’s health industry is relatively low. Although the average supply development index has steadily increased from 0.0961 in 2013 to 0.1589 in 2021, it has not yet reached 0.2. Analysis of the original data reveals significant structural disparities in the supply of health industry. The increase in the number of elderly care beds, the development of health education, the growth of medical and pharmaceutical patents, and the number of doctors has exceeded 500%, far outpacing other sectors. Meanwhile, the growth of other indicators remains relatively stable, indicating that the aging population and the increasing health awareness among residents have influenced the internal structure of healthcare industry development. A comparative analysis of the regional differences shows that the supply development index is highest in the eastern region, followed by the central region, and then by the western region and northeastern region, which have similar development levels. Since 2019, the supply development index in the northeastern region has consistently been slightly lower than that in the western region and has been the lowest among the four major economic regions. The supply development index of the health industry in various regions of China is showing a trend of widening disparities year by year. The gap in the supply development index between the eastern region and the northeastern region has increased from 0.0577 in 2013 to 0.1431 in 2021, a growth of 148.25%.
In terms of the degree of demand development, the demand development level of China’s health industry is also at a relatively low level, but the growth rate is fast, and there is a significant regional development imbalance phenomenon. The average development degree of demand in the health industry has rapidly increased at an average annual rate of 9.27%, from 0.1188 in 2013 to 0.2409 in 2021, an increase of 102.76%. A comparative analysis of the original data reveals that the indicators showing the greatest growth on the demand side of the health industry are the export value of the health industry, the number of participants in medical insurance, total health expenditure, and government budgetary health expenditure. This indicates that the demand for the health industry has been strengthened in various aspects, possibly due to factors such as changes in population structure, advancements in medical technology, and government policy support. This also reflects the increasing importance people place on health and medical care, indicating that the outlook for the development of the health industry is promising. However, while the demand for the health industry is rapidly developing, the gap in demand development degree between regions is also rapidly widening. The gap between the eastern and northeastern regions increased from 0.0919 in 2013 to 0.2427 in 2021, an increase of 164.25%. This exacerbates the regional imbalance in the development level of demand for the health industry. Currently, the development level of demand for the health industry shows the highest level in the eastern region, followed by the central region, and the lowest level in the western and northeastern regions. In 2021, the demand development degree in the eastern region had reached 2.73 times that of the northeastern region.
Combining the analysis of supply and demand development, the health industry in China is in a state of “supply shortage”, and the gap in the level of supply and demand development has been widening year by year. During the period from 2013 to 2021, the development degree of supply in various regions was lower than that of demand. According to the calculation of the gap in the level of supply and demand development in the average health industry in China, the difference was only 0.0227 in 2013, while it had reached 0.0820 in 2021. Moreover, the average annual growth rate of demand over the eight years was 12.85%, while supply was only 8.17%, which will further widen the gap between supply and demand in the future. By analyzing the gap in supply and demand between regions, it was found that the regions with higher levels of health industry development also have larger gaps in supply and demand development. Ranking regions according to the difference in supply and demand development degree in 2021 from high to low, they are, respectively, the eastern, central, northeastern, and western regions, with differences of 0.1495, 0.0715, 0.0499, and 0.0390. It can be seen that although the overall scale of the health industry continues to expand, the problem of imbalance in supply and demand development is becoming more serious. The promotion of the synergistic development of supply and demand in the health industry is an urgent issue that needs to be addressed.
5.2. Grey Comprehensive Correlation and Coupling Development Degree between Supply and Demand in the Health Industry
Using Formulas (14)–(22), the grey comprehensive correlation between supply and demand in the health industry from 2013 to 2021 was calculated overall, and the results are shown in
Table 3.
Overall, the grey comprehensive correlation between the supply and demand of the health industry in various provinces and regions of China is relatively high, with the correlation level in each region averaging above 0.80, and 22 provinces and regions have a grey comprehensive correlation above 0.9, indicating that there is a significant interaction between the supply and demand of the health industry. Based on this, the degree of coupling development between the supply and demand of the health industry is calculated using Equation (23), and the results are shown in
Table 4.
Compared to unilateral development degrees, the coupling development degree can portray the development of supply and demand while considering their interaction in the health industry. By analyzing the data in
Table 4 and comparing them with those in
Figure 1, three conclusions can be drawn.
After coupling, the degree of supply and demand development in the health industry shows a convergence trend, and the gap in the level of supply and demand development narrows. Due to the relatively increased level of supply development and the relatively decreased level of demand development in the health industry after coupling, the gap between supply and demand in various regions has been significantly reduced. Taking the year 2021 as an example, the national average gap between supply and demand in the health industry before coupling was 0.0820, which reduced to 0.0035 after coupling. Due to the significant reduction in the gap in the degree of supply and demand development after coupling, the development trend of the coupling degree between supply and demand showed a high degree of synchronicity, indicating the obvious mutual constraint and driving the relationship between supply and demand in the Chinese health industry.
After coupling, the degree of supply and demand development in the health industry still shows a “supply shortage” situation, and the backward development level on the supply side has a greater hindering effect on industry development. Although the gap in the degree of supply and demand development after coupling is significantly smaller than before coupling, the health industry still maintains a “supply shortage” status on both sides, and the gap between supply and demand continues to widen year by year. Further analysis of the changes in the development levels of supply and demand on both sides of the health industry before and after coupling reveals that the magnitude of the increase in supply level after coupling is smaller than that of the demand level, indicating that the hindrance of demand development in the health industry by supply is greater than the effort to promote supply development from the demand side of the health industry. It can be seen that the lag in supply-side development is an urgent issue that needs to be addressed in the development of the Chinese health industry.
After coupling, the regional differences in the degree of supply and demand development in the health industry continue to increase year by year. Due to the convergence effect of the coupling between supply and demand on the degree of development, the regional differences in supply and demand development are also somewhat reduced when the coupling effect is not considered. However, the gap in supply and demand levels between regions still maintains a trend of increasing year by year after coupling. In addition, the gap in the level of supply and demand development in the health industry after coupling still shows the highest distribution pattern in the east, followed by the central region, and the lowest distribution pattern in the western and northeastern regions, which is consistent with the distribution status before coupling.
5.3. Health Industry Supply–Demand Synergy Degree and Supply–Demand Synergistic Development Degree
5.3.1. Calculation of Supply–Demand Synergy Degree and Supply–Demand Synergistic Development Degree
The health industry supply–demand synergy degree and supply–demand synergistic development degree between 2013 and 2021 in each province (autonomous region and municipality directly under the Central Government) were calculated based on Formulas (24) and (25). The supply–demand synergy degree reflects the level of synergy in the development of health industry supply and demand, and the supply–demand synergistic development degree reflects the overall development level of the industry under the influence of the synergy level of health industry supply and demand.
Table 5 shows the calculation results for some of the years.
The degree of synergistic development between supply and demand in the health industry is far lower than the degree of synergy between supply and demand; yet, as the level of industry development gradually increases, the degree of synergy decreases. The reason lies in the fact that although the overall development level of the health industry in various regions has been continuously improving in recent years, the gap in the supply and demand development levels has widened with the development of the industry, and the speed of overall development growth lags behind the speed at which the gap in supply and demand widens. The problem of “supply exceeding demand” is becoming increasingly serious, leading to a downward trend in the synergy between supply and demand. It is worth noting that, by combining the supply development degree not exceeding 0.24 and the demand development degree not exceeding 0.39 of the health industry in various regions, although there is a gap in the development of supply and demand in the health industry, the development degrees are both relatively low. Therefore, it is on the basis of low-level development on both the supply and demand sides that a higher composite synergy degree between supply and demand in the health industry is achieved. It can be seen that the development of China’s health industry not only needs to address the increasingly serious imbalance between supply and demand but also needs to improve the overall development level of the industry to break out of the development dilemma of “high coordination and low growth”. There is still a lot of room for improvement in the development of the health industry.
A further examination of the development status of the health industry in various provinces and regions was conducted. Using the two indicators of mean value and annual average growth rate for analysis, the four quadrants were divided based on the national average level; they were high level–high growth, low level–high growth, low level–low growth, and high level–low growth (
Figure 2 and
Figure 3). Regarding the analysis of supply–demand synergy, most provinces are located in the first and third quadrants, indicating that regions with high supply–demand synergy can still resist the trend of decline during the industrial development process, while regions with low synergy decline more rapidly, with the gap between the two widening over time, showing the “Matthew effect” of “the strong get stronger, the weak get weaker”; Hainan, Tibet, Anhui, and Shanghai are located in the second quadrant, indicating that although their overall synergy level is lower than the national average, their decline rate is slower; Hebei, Guizhou, Liaoning, Zhejiang, and Beijing are located in the fourth quadrant, where the industrial supply–demand synergy level is relatively high, but the trend of declining synergy is also more pronounced.
Regarding the analysis of supply–demand synergy development, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and other regions located in the first quadrant have a good momentum in the development of the health industry, ranking at the forefront in both overall strength and growth rate and maintaining advantages; Yunnan, Xinjiang, Guizhou, and other regions are located in the second quadrant, indicating that although their overall level is lower than the national average, the growth rate of the health industry is relatively fast; most regions are located in the third quadrant, indicating that the Chinese health industry is still in an emerging growth stage with a low level and low growth rate, with enormous future development potential; Shandong and Hebei, located in the fourth quadrant, have strong development capabilities in the health industry, and after experiencing rapid growth, they have entered a stable development stage of improving quality and efficiency.
5.3.2. Spatial–Temporal Distribution of Supply–Demand Synergy and Supply–Demand Synergy Development
Based on
Table 5, the supply–demand synergy and supply–demand synergistic development values of the health industry in various provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) of China are calculated. Using data from 2021 as the baseline, and referring to the results of the natural break method for grouping, the level of synergy is divided into a moderate level (value lower than 0.6419), a relatively high level (value between 0.6419 and 0.8041), a high level (value between 0.8041 and 0.8987), and an extremely high level (value higher than 0.8987); the level of development is divided into a low level (value lower than 0.2041), a relatively low level (value between 0.2041 and 0.3445), a moderate level (value between 0.3445 and 0.4585), and a relatively high level (value higher than 0.4585). Selecting data from the years 2013 and 2021 as representatives, the distribution map of the composite supply–demand synergy and development degree of the health industry in China’s provinces is drawn using ArcGIS software 10.2 (
Figure 4 is drawn based on the standard map of the Ministry of Natural Resources Map Technical Review Center (Review Number GS(2022)1873), and the boundaries of the base map remain unaltered) (
Figure 4).
From 2013 to 2021, the overall synergy between supply and demand in the health industry presented a distribution pattern of “high in the middle, low in the east and west”. The eastern region had relatively low synergy between supply and demand; although its levels of supply and demand development were relatively high, the gap between its supply and demand development levels was the largest, and the imbalance in supply and demand was greater than the degree of development, resulting in its relatively low synergy. Conversely, the central region had smaller gaps between supply and demand compared to other regions with similar levels of development, thus showing higher synergy during the observation period. The western region showed the most stable synergy between supply and demand; although there was a decrease in synergy during the observation period, the fluctuation amplitude was smaller compared to other regions; however, its synergy between supply and demand was also relatively low. The northeastern region experienced the most significant overall decline in synergy between supply and demand. In combination with
Table 5, it can be seen that the synergy level of the health industry between supply and demand in the northeastern region was the highest among the four major economic regions in 2013, but by 2021, the synergy had decreased by 10.53%, while the other three regions only averaged a decrease of 6.38%.
From 2013 to 2021, the level of synergistic development of supply and demand in the health industry showed a distribution pattern of “high in the east and south, low in the west and north”. In combination with data from
Table 5, it can be seen that during the observation period, the levels of health industry development in the eastern, central, and western regions all showed significant improvement, with an average growth of 32.44% in the three regions. In contrast, the level of development in the northeastern region not only ranked the lowest among the four major economic regions, but also only increased by 11.42%. In combination with
Table 5, it can be seen that the provinces with the slowest growth in composite synergy development between supply and demand in the health industry from 2013 to 2021 were Liaoning (7.96%), Qinghai (9.44%), and Jilin (9.69%); all except Qinghai belong to the northeastern region; thus, northeastern region ranks lower in the synergy development of the health industry between supply and demand. It is worth noting that compared with the synergy between supply and demand in the health industry, the level of industrial development in each region is not higher than 0.5, indicating a low level of development. Each region should implement corresponding measures to promote the synergy between supply and demand in the health industry, and the northeastern region should pay more attention to the development issues of the health industry.
5.3.3. Analysis of the Core Density of Health Industry Development
Based on the calculated degree of supply–demand synergistic development in the health industry, this study adopts the kernel density estimation method to investigate the dynamic evolution of the distribution of the health industry development levels during the sample period.
Observed from a national perspective (
Figure 5), the center of gravity of the kernel density curve of the health industry development is generally left-skewed, with a noticeable phenomenon of “low-side peaks”, where high-value areas are scarce and low-value areas are abundant. The increasing number of peaks indicates a trend of increasing dispersion in the level of health industry development across regions during the sample period. In the observed low-value areas, the main peak height does not show a significant downward trend, confirming the overall low level of China’s health industry development. In the observed high-value areas, the gradually emerging peaks indicate that the level of health industry development in some provinces is higher than in other domestic provinces and that their development speed is rapid.
The dynamic evolution characteristics of kernel density in the four major economic regions (
Figure 6) were analyzed. (1) Eastern Region: Compared with the number of peaks in other regions, the eastern region shows a more obvious multipeak pattern, indicating a significant trend of polarization in the development level of the health industry in the eastern region. (2) Central Region: During the sample period, the kernel density curve of the central region shows a significant bimodal phenomenon, and the two peaks gradually shift towards the high-value area, indicating the existence of polarization in the development level of the health industry in the central region. Although the regional development level generally improves, the gap between extreme values and the average value within the region has not gradually narrowed. (3) Western Region: In a similar manner to the central region, the western region also exhibits a significant bimodal phenomenon, and the distance between the main peak and the side peak increases year by year. The polarization characteristics tend to strengthen overall, and the degree of differentiation within the region gradually increases. (4) Northeastern Region: The development level of the health industry in the northeastern region is relatively low. Compared with other economic regions of China, the kernel density curve distribution in the northeastern region during the sample period is the most concentrated, and the height increases year by year, with the smallest development gap within the region.
5.3.4. Analysis of Spatial Differences and Sources Decomposition of the Development Level of the Health Industry
Based on the calculated synergy of supply and demand in the health industry, this paper employs Gini coefficient calculation and the decomposition method to study the regional differences and their sources in the development of the health industry. The calculation and decomposition results of the Gini coefficient of the synergy between supply and demand in the health industry are shown in
Table 6.
Overall, the Gini coefficient of the development of the health industry shows an increasing trend during the sample period, indicating that the inter-provincial gap in the development of the health industry continues to widen without showing a trend of convergence. In terms of contribution rate, regional differences are the main source of inter-provincial differences in the development of the health industry in China, indicating that regional disparities are the main problem restricting the synergy between supply and demand in the Chinese health industry. The contribution rates of super-variable density differences and intra-regional differences are particularly stable, and both have been maintained at around 25% for a long time.
Further analysis of the Gini coefficient in each region reveals the following. Firstly, except for the northeastern region, the intra-regional differences generally show an increasing trend. The eastern and central regions exhibit relatively small fluctuations in intra-regional differences, while the western region experiences a rapid increase in intra-regional differences, and the northeastern region undergoes a sharp decline in intra-regional differences. This aligns with the conclusions drawn from the previous kernel density analysis, indicating that during the sample period, the western region tends to strengthen its polarization in development, while the development level in the three northeastern provinces is generally low, with the smallest regional differences. Secondly, in terms of inter-regional differences, the disparity between the eastern and western regions is the largest, followed by the difference between the eastern and northeastern regions, indicating that the development level of the health industry in the eastern region significantly surpasses that of the whole country, leading to a development gap with other regions. The levels of difference between the eastern and central regions, the northeastern and central regions, and the northeastern and western regions only show slight fluctuations during the study period, while the development gap between the central and western regions experiences a leapfrog increase. In combination with
Table 5, it can be observed that the gap in the synergy of supply and demand in the health industry between the central and western regions increased by 55.21% during the study period. While the central region significantly outperforms the western region in terms of the foundation of health industry development, its development speed is also faster, leading to a gradual widening of the gap between the two.