Propagation Dynamics from Meteorological to Agricultural Drought in Northwestern China: Key Influencing Factors
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Study Area and Data
3. Methodology
3.1. Standardized Drought Index
3.2. Three-Dimensional Clustering Method
3.3. Cross-Wavelet Transform
3.4. Wavelet Cross-Correlation
3.5. Grey Relational Analysis
4. Results
4.1. Spatiotemporal Patterns of Meteorological and Agricultural Droughts
4.2. Propagation Time from Meteorological Drought to Agricultural Drought
4.3. Multi-Timescale Linkages between Meteorological and Agricultural Droughts
4.4. Wavelet Cross-Correlation between Meteorological and Agricultural Droughts
5. Discussion
5.1. Lag Effects on Drought Propagation
5.2. Influencing Factors on Drought Propagation
6. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Drought Level | SPEI/SSMI | Class |
---|---|---|
I | −0.5 < SPEI and SSMI | No drought |
II | −1.0 < SPEI and SSMI ≤ −0.5 | Mild drought |
III | −1.5 < SPEI and SSMI ≤ −1.0 | Moderate drought |
IV | −2.0 < SPEI and SSMI ≤ −1.5 | Severe drought |
V | SPEI and SSMI ≤ −2 | Extreme drought |
Drought Variable | Meteorological Drought | Agricultural Drought | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 1960s | 1970s | 1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | ||
Number of events | 50 | 64 | 58 | 54 | 66 | 52 | 23 | 30 | 33 | 33 | 17 | 33 | |
Drought duration (month) | Mean | 2.66 | 2.58 | 2.26 | 2.30 | 1.92 | 2.21 | 7 | 5 | 5.27 | 6.24 | 5 | 4.82 |
Max | 9 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 22 | 26 | 21 | 24 | 17 | 21 | |
SD | 2.26 | 2.30 | 2.07 | 1.84 | 1.55 | 1.67 | 6.41 | 6.24 | 4.81 | 5.72 | 4.30 | 4.99 | |
Proportion for ≥2 | 52.0% | 48.4% | 41.4% | 46.3% | 39.4% | 51.9% | 81.8% | 70% | 86.7% | 69.7% | 82.4% | 66.7% | |
Drought area (106 km2) | Mean | 0.34 | 0.30 | 0.31 | 0.33 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.21 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.16 | 0.11 |
Max | 1.54 | 1.49 | 1.62 | 1.61 | 1.33 | 1.61 | 1.03 | 0.35 | 0.55 | 0.73 | 0.82 | 0.45 | |
SD | 0.38 | 0.31 | 0.39 | 0.35 | 0.26 | 0.32 | 0.26 | 0.09 | 0.15 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 0.10 | |
Drought severity (106 month·km2) | Mean | 1.21 | 0.77 | 0.90 | 0.98 | 0.53 | 0.71 | 1.82 | 0.59 | 0.87 | 1.13 | 0.76 | 0.66 |
Max | 9.38 | 6.81 | 7.31 | 8.53 | 7.15 | 5.41 | 12.98 | 4.54 | 6.09 | 8.21 | 4.16 | 4.19 | |
Min | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.04 | |
SD | 2.04 | 1.16 | 1.62 | 1.72 | 1.07 | 1.11 | 3.17 | 0.99 | 1.57 | 2.00 | 1.06 | 0.99 | |
Migration distance (km) | Mean | 259.28 | 282.64 | 243.33 | 234.56 | 189.14 | 258.13 | 341.45 | 159.58 | 195.35 | 244.19 | 217.42 | 212.86 |
Max | 1763.71 | 2572.17 | 1685.60 | 1554.16 | 2115.55 | 1901.33 | 1955.27 | 965.70 | 1019.14 | 1188.27 | 1470.72 | 970.83 | |
SD | 398.34 | 473.57 | 436.02 | 396.07 | 383.38 | 401.80 | 489.36 | 245.94 | 272.95 | 336.21 | 341.41 | 250.08 |
Sub-Regions | Influencing Factors | Spring | Summer | Autumn | Winter | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
r | R | r | R | r | R | r | R | ||
Plateau climate zone | Precipitation | 0.16 ** | 0.640 | 0.79 ** | 0.729 | 0.53 ** | 0.755 | 0.13 * | 0.655 |
PET | −0.66 ** | 0.657 | −0.73 ** | 0.531 | −0.47 ** | 0.618 | −0.005 | 0.602 | |
Soil moisture | 0.69 ** | 0.693 | 0.85 ** | 0.817 | 0.71 ** | 0.759 | 0.63 ** | 0.695 | |
DEM | 0.55 ** | 0.630 | 0.47 ** | 0.641 | 0.57 ** | 0.641 | 0.64 ** | 0.638 | |
Southeastern climate zone | Precipitation | −0.04 | 0.755 | −0.10 * | 0.624 | 0.37 ** | 0.749 | 0.26 ** | 0.826 |
PET | −0.02 | 0.744 | 0.14 ** | 0.615 | −0.27 ** | 0.723 | 0.32 ** | 0.751 | |
Soil moisture | 0.20 ** | 0.792 | 0.15 ** | 0.727 | 0.51 ** | 0.823 | 0.52 ** | 0.931 | |
DEM | 0.09 * | 0.681 | 0.20 ** | 0.649 | 0.52 ** | 0.845 | 0.21 ** | 0.541 | |
Westerly climate zone | Precipitation | 0.68 ** | 0.753 | 0.72 ** | 0.683 | 0.67 ** | 0.744 | 0.39 ** | 0.806 |
PET | 0.09 * | 0.615 | −0.31 ** | 0.687 | 0.03 | 0.756 | 0.35 ** | 0.681 | |
Soil moisture | 0.89 ** | 0.813 | 0.92 ** | 0.806 | 0.84 ** | 0.758 | 0.75 ** | 0.737 | |
DEM | 0.10 * | 0.789 | 0.02 | 0.477 | 0.12 ** | 0.749 | 0.07 | 0.733 |
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Feng, K.; Yuan, H.; Wang, Y.; Li, Y.; Wang, X.; Wang, F.; Su, X.; Zhang, Z. Propagation Dynamics from Meteorological to Agricultural Drought in Northwestern China: Key Influencing Factors. Agronomy 2024, 14, 1987. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy14091987
Feng K, Yuan H, Wang Y, Li Y, Wang X, Wang F, Su X, Zhang Z. Propagation Dynamics from Meteorological to Agricultural Drought in Northwestern China: Key Influencing Factors. Agronomy. 2024; 14(9):1987. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy14091987
Chicago/Turabian StyleFeng, Kai, Haobo Yuan, Yingying Wang, Yanbin Li, Xiaowan Wang, Fei Wang, Xiaoling Su, and Zezhong Zhang. 2024. "Propagation Dynamics from Meteorological to Agricultural Drought in Northwestern China: Key Influencing Factors" Agronomy 14, no. 9: 1987. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy14091987