Seasonal Climate Forecast Skill Assessment for the Management of Water Resources in a Run of River Hydropower System in the Poqueira River (Southern Spain)
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Pilot Application
- The operability of the plant according to the production and non-production periods, which is useful for planning maintenance tasks;
- The turbine discharge, the minimum flow that must be released from a plant in order to meet environmental water requirements, and the spill. Knowledge about potential spill informs hydropower managers on (a) the need to tune up the machines and increase the capacity of the plant in order to take advantage of the excess discharges coming from snowmelt in a short time period, or (b) the need to install new turbines in the plant in a long period if spilling is frequent;
- An estimation of the energy production given the predicted discharge.
2.2. Data Sources
- On one side, seasonal forecasts of daily river flow data (which go up to a six-month prediction horizon) are provided by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI). The hydrological forecast information is produced by forcing the European Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (E-HYPE) model with data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal forecast systems (SEAS5 and its predecessor System 4) [23,24]. ECMWF systems are based on global climate models, which since the oceanic circulation is a major source of predictability in the seasonal scale, are based on coupled ocean–atmosphere integrations [25]. E-HYPE is the European setup of the HYPE model, which estimates hydrological variables on a daily time step at an average sub-basin resolution of 120 km2 [25,26]. For our pilot area, the seasonal forecasts of river flow data produced in a sub-basin of 527 km2 were used (Figure 1). Probabilistic forecasts are produced as an ensemble of members or scenarios that present the range of future river flow possibilities. Although the CS is currently operative with SEAS5 data which produces an ensemble of 51 members, in the service testing stage presented here, we used a previous ECMWF seasonal forecast, System 4, for which 15-member hindcasts covering the period 1 January 1981–30 November 2015 for each calendar month and up to six months ahead were available. The sub-basin where E-HYPE river flow forecasts are produced does not perfectly match the contributing area to the pilot three RoR system (see SHYMAT sub-basins in Figure 1). In this work, the raw seasonal forecasts were presented at a monthly scale and statistically downscaled at the pilot local scale to match the temporal and spatial scale suitable for this particular application, as detailed in the Section 2.3.
- On the other side, daily river flow averages simulated by forcing E-HYPE with HydroGFD precipitation and temperature coming from reanalyses [27] (perfect run) are available for the period 1 January 1981–31 December 2010.The E-HYPE performance in simulating river flow varies in time and space, with low performance as well as a tendency to overestimate flows in southern Spain [26]. The perfect run data were used in the downscaling step.
- Finally, the daily streamflow measurements for the period 1 October 1969–13 September 2018 in the intake point of the Pampaneira plant (Figure 1), provided by the managers of the hydropower system, give an adequate overview of the historical river inflow to the RoR system and its variability. Data for the Poqueira plant are not available and the data for the Duque plant are normally the same as in the Pampaneira plant, so the results of the analysis can be applied in both plants.
2.3. Downscaling Approach of Seasonal Forecast Data for Local Application
2.4. Assessment of the Prediction through Seasonal Forecast Data and Historical Data
3. Results
3.1. Variability of Observed Inflow Data
3.2. Downscaling of the Seasonal Forecast Data and Comparison with Measured Data
3.3. Evaluation of the Reliability for Each Month
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
RoR | run of river |
CC | climate change |
EC | European Commission |
CS | climate services |
SHYMAT | Small Hydropower Management and Assessment Tool |
C3S | Copernicus Climate Change Service |
GCMs | global climate models |
SMHI | Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute |
ECMWF | European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts |
E-HYPE | European Hydrological Predictions for the Environment |
Appendix A
Appendix B
- Computation of the empirical distribution of all the observed river flow values for the month of interest Mi for the calibration period (1981–2010).
- Computation of the empirical distribution of all simulated river flow values for the reference simulation, which is done for each month of interest.
- Adjustment of a forecast value for the month of interest Mi at the lead of interest Mt:
- Identification of the frequency of occurrence of the forecast value p in the empirical simulation distribution built for the month of interest Mi.
- Identification of the observed river flow value p* with the same frequency of occurrence in the empirical observation distribution for month Mi.
- Replacement of the forecast value p by the observed value p* that has the same frequency of occurrence.
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Contreras, E.; Herrero, J.; Crochemore, L.; Aguilar, C.; Polo, M.J. Seasonal Climate Forecast Skill Assessment for the Management of Water Resources in a Run of River Hydropower System in the Poqueira River (Southern Spain). Water 2020, 12, 2119. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12082119
Contreras E, Herrero J, Crochemore L, Aguilar C, Polo MJ. Seasonal Climate Forecast Skill Assessment for the Management of Water Resources in a Run of River Hydropower System in the Poqueira River (Southern Spain). Water. 2020; 12(8):2119. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12082119
Chicago/Turabian StyleContreras, Eva, Javier Herrero, Louise Crochemore, Cristina Aguilar, and María José Polo. 2020. "Seasonal Climate Forecast Skill Assessment for the Management of Water Resources in a Run of River Hydropower System in the Poqueira River (Southern Spain)" Water 12, no. 8: 2119. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12082119