Multi-Scenario Simulation of Urban–Rural Land Use Spatial Reconstruction in Highly Urbanized Areas: A Case Study from the Southern Jiangsu Region

Round 1

Reviewer 1 Report

Comments and Suggestions for Authors

This is an interesting and meaningful study. The author uses the system dynamics model to simulate the spatial reconstruction of urban and rural land use in highly urbanized areas. In general, the topic selection has certain significance, and the research process is relatively reasonable. In order to better improve the quality of the paper, several suggestions for reference:

       (1) The introduction needs some modest changes. First, the importance and urgency of the whole research needs to be further highlighted. Second, compared with the existing research, where should the core marginal contribution of this research be further summarized and condensed? Marginal contributions are now relatively fragmented and unfocused.

       (2) The research lacks a rigorous theoretical analysis framework, so it is suggested that the author make a supplement.

       (3) The discussion section suggests further research, especially comparison with similar studies.

       (4) The repetition rate of the paper is a little high, as high as 26%, it is recommended that the author modify it well.

Author Response

This is an interesting and meaningful study. The author uses the system dynamics model to simulate the spatial reconstruction of urban and rural land use in highly urbanized areas. In general, the topic selection has certain significance, and the research process is relatively reasonable. In order to better improve the quality of the paper, several suggestions for reference:

(1) The introduction needs some modest changes. First, the importance and urgency of the whole research needs to be further highlighted. Second, compared with the existing research, where should the core marginal contribution of this research be further summarized and condensed? Marginal contributions are now relatively fragmented and unfocused.

We are greatly honored to receive your comments and suggestions. Reviewer 2's suggestion is also being considered, the article has added an expression of specific data on the development of urbanization in China, as well as a description of the land conflicts caused by rapid urbanization. The specific contribution of this study is added at the end of the introduction, as follows:

“Over the past 40 years of China’s reform and opening, urbanization and industrialization have entered a stage of rapid development. The development of urbanization has seriously changed the original development trajectory of rural areas [1,2]. As of the end of 2022, China's urbanization rate has reached 65.22%, especially for the southern Jiangsu region, where the urbanization level has exceeded 80%. In the process of rapid urbanization, there are serious problems with land use, which has become an important factor affecting social stability in China. The differential rent between construction land and arable land is different; construction land can realize excess profits in a short period of time. When faced with huge fiscal deficit pressure, local governments are more inclined to reverse the financial pressure in the short term [3]. Therefore, the rapid expansion of urban construction land in suburban areas has squeezed the development space of rural land. Examples include the non-agriculturalization of cultivated land and the deterioration of the ecological environment of cultivated land. Analyzing scientific predictions and the rational planning of land spatial development and utilization are effective means of implementing land resource management. Simulating the spatial patterns of urban and rural land use types in different scenarios can provide a reference basis for rural transformation and development..” (Lines 27-44)

“……The contribution of this study mainly includes two aspects: 1) The research object of this study is the southern Jiangsu region, which is conducive to alleviating the urban-rural land use conflict in highly urbanized areas. 2) The use of a model combining SD and FLUS for analysis enriches the research methods of land use simulation. ……” (Lines 101-107)

(2) The research lacks a rigorous theoretical analysis framework, so it is suggested that the author make a supplement.

This is a very meaningful modification suggestion. In the revised manuscript, the authors proposed a theoretical analysis framework.

“Many scholars' research on the influencing factors of land use change focuses on economy, society, policy, and environment. Based on this, a theoretical framework is constructed as shown in Figure 1. The changes in land elements cannot be separated from the driving force of economic factors. With the development of urban economy, the agglomeration of production scale has led to the expansion of urban boundaries. Moreover, the investment in fixed assets is becoming increasingly active, which increases the demand for construction land [20, 21]. With the transfer of labor from the primary industry to the secondary and tertiary industries, more agricultural land has also been converted into non-agricultural construction land. For social factors, population change is the main cause of land use change. In the process of urbanization, people's various material needs for daily life form various construction land demands such as production space, public facility land, and infrastructure land. Land use changes will ultimately be based on policy systems. The relevant departments have implemented measures such as returning farmland to forests and renovating rural residential areas to meet regional planning goals. Climate change will affect vegetation growth and agricultural production, and natural factors determine the material basis of different land uses.”

“The factors of economy, society, policy, and environment can have a direct impact on the quantity of land use. However, the spatial changes of different land use types tend to be based more on point and axis elements. The point axis development mode basically conforms to the objective laws of productivity spatial motion. The economic center is always first concentrated in a few areas with better conditions, such as the central areas of cities, counties, and townships. Due to the exchange of production factors requiring transportation routes and water supply lines, points are connected to form an axis. The development of social economy is often arranged according to the point axis development model, and land resources are an important carrier of the point axis system. The axis elements in the southern Jiangsu region are dense, mainly including highways, railways, pilot roads, and rivers. Point axis elements are important factors in the spatial layout of land use.” (Lines 108-140)

(3) The discussion section suggests further research, especially comparison with similar studies.

Thank you for your suggestion. Taking into account the opinions of the third expert, the authors have made minor revisions to the discussion section.

“There is relatively little research on simulating land use changes in the southern Jiangsu region. In land use simulation studies in other regions, few scholars have summarized typical characteristics. This study summarizes three development models, namely single center driven expansion, patchy expansion near the city center, and multi-center pole driving expansion.……” (Lines 467-471)

(4)The repetition rate of the paper is a little high, as high as 26%, it is recommended that the author modify it well.

Thank you for your suggestion. The use of some proprietary terms in the original manuscript has also been identified as duplicate parts. For example, “cultivated land”, “rural residential areas”, “urban construction land” , “urban and rural land”, “Multi-scenario simulation of land”, “Based on the SD-FLUS”, “between construction land and arable land” ……. The authors have made every effort to reduce the repetition rate in the revised manuscript.

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf

Reviewer 2 Report

Comments and Suggestions for Authors

I have carefully reviewed the paper, focusing on its primary objective and potential contributions to the field. The study has the potential to significantly advance our understanding of land use patterns in southern Jiangsu, China. However, while relevant studies have been cited, a more detailed explanation of the advantages of the proposed approach, especially the SD model, is necessary. Although the methodology is well-described, a more substantial justification for using this model is required.

While the study acknowledges its limitations and future directions, it would be beneficial to illustrate these limitations using specific examples from the current scenarios. For instance, what factors have been identified as hindering the outcomes? Do existing studies provide empirical evidence to support these claims? If not, What specific areas or factors should be considered for future research?

Additionally, in Figures 5 and 6, all abbreviations (e.g., CL, RS, WL) must be added by their complete forms in the figure captions.

 

In conclusion, I recommend that the authors insist on precision and clarity throughout all the sections.

Comments on the Quality of English Language

Please revise the manuscript and try to rephrase it with short sentences.

Author Response

(1)I have carefully reviewed the paper, focusing on its primary objective and potential contributions to the field. The study has the potential to significantly advance our understanding of land use patterns in southern Jiangsu, China. However, while relevant studies have been cited, a more detailed explanation of the advantages of the proposed approach, especially the SD model, is necessary. Although the methodology is well-described, a more substantial justification for using this model is required.

Thank you for your comments. We really appreciate your efforts in reviewing our manuscript, and we have revised the manuscript according to your suggestions. In this review, other experts suggested simplifying some details, so we did not add a lot of explanations for the model. The following expression has been added to the article:

“Land use system refers to an organic whole with certain structure and function that is formed by the mutual influence of subsystems in a region, such as population, land resources, land environment, economy, society, and management regulation [24,25]. Therefore, the land use system is a comprehensive and extremely complex system. The SD method, as a simulation method that is based on feedback control theory, can precisely simulate the complexity of land use system. Specifically, the SD method uses the analysis and research of information feedback to solve and understand system problems [26].……” (Lines 189-199)

(2)While the study acknowledges its limitations and future directions, it would be beneficial to illustrate these limitations using specific examples from the current scenarios. For instance, what factors have been identified as hindering the outcomes? Do existing studies provide empirical evidence to support these claims? If not, What specific areas or factors should be considered for future research?

The authors have made revisions to make the research limitations more in line with the theme of this study.

“This research also has some limitations. The selection of driving factors is subjective, and although we have referred to a large number of literature, the choice of different driving factors can slightly affect the research results. In the SD simulation, due to the limitations of remote sensing technology, it is difficult to form accurate continuous time series data from existing land use data. In addition, the expansion of urban construction land is likely to result in rural residential areas being converted to urban land, which this study did not take into account. In the future, we will attempt to screen and construct a scalable driving factor system based on literature dose methods. Also, we will attempt to collaborate with government departments to obtain accurate land use data over a longer period of time. Exploring the interaction mechanism between rural residential areas and urban construction land at the urban-rural boundary through micro case studies is also one of the future research plans.”(Lines 569-580)

(3)Additionally, in Figures 5 and 6, all abbreviations (e.g., CL, RS, WL) must be added by their complete forms in the figure captions.

Considering the suggestions of other experts in this review, most of the abbreviations in the main text have been replaced.

(4)In conclusion, I recommend that the authors insist on precision and clarity throughout all the sections.

Thank you for your comments. Considering the suggestions of other experts in this review, we have streamlined the details of each chapter.

(5)Please revise the manuscript and try to rephrase it with short sentences.

The authors have made modifications to the long sentences in the manuscript, and specific details can be seen from the revised draft.

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf

Reviewer 3 Report

Comments and Suggestions for Authors

I have reviewed the manuscript and found that the manuscript has merits and interesting subject. My general comments are:

 1.       Authors may consider improving their style and shortening a significant number of paragraphs by reducing them (avoiding unnecessary details), and/or splitting them into more paragraphs.

2.       The material should be revised, the usage of acronyms reduced where possible, and too detailed presentation of numbers avoided. Paper somehow slips to technical rather than scientific report.

3.       The list of references must follow the journal standard.

 

Below are my more detailed comments and suggestions:

 

1.         Title: I suggest a better title - "Multi-Scenario Simulation of Urban-Rural Land Use Spatial Reconstruction in China's Southern Jiangsu Region". The revised title maintains the essence of the original title and indicates the geographical focus (China's Southern Jiangsu Region) and the subject (Urban-Rural Land Use Spatial Reconstruction). The term ‘multi-scenario simulation’ in the beginning emphasizes the methodology used in the study.

2.         The abstract should be shortened and style-improved.  For instance, avoid ‘one can see’, and repetition of ‘southern Jiangsu region’ (twice).  Replace the first two sentences. In keywords, add ‘factors’ after ESPE.

3.         Introduction: A literature review is good. Paragraphs are long and authors should try to restructure the section 'by topics' and shorten some paragraphs, while avoiding too many details, for easy reading. SD and FLUS models could be separate paragraphs with short explanations of their characteristics, usage, results they produce, etc. Not all readers are familiar with these models. Another option is to move details about these models into subsection 2.2 where, after their brief description, naturally comes text about their connected use (‘using the land demand predicted by the SD model combined with the FLUS model ...).

4.         Materials and methods: Insert dash lines between factor layers ESPE in Table 1.

5.         Results: Hard to read because of too long paragraphs, too many repetitions of acronyms, percentages with two decimals (consider rounding without decimals), etc. Each scenario (A, B, C) should be described briefly with descriptive wording pointing out only the main facts. Otherwise, the reader is overburdened with unnecessary details. Consider avoiding some less important figures and supporting texts and try to concentrate only on the most important findings. Rewrite (consider also avoiding!) the whole subsection 3.3.1. No need to describe the parameters setting and Table 3 should be deleted.  Similarly, in subsection 3.3.2. there are too many unnecessary details.

6.         The discussion is correctly presented.

7.         Conclusions: The last paragraph (part referring to limitations of research presented), in slightly extended form, should be also commented on at the end of the Introduction.

8.         Authors should correct all typos and check grammar.

9.         The reference format of the manuscript is not consistent with the format of LAND
Journal. Authors should cite all references with reference numbers and place numbers in square brackets (“[ ]”), e.g., [1], [1–3], or [1,3].

Author Response

(1)I have reviewed the manuscript and found that the manuscript has merits and interesting subject. My general comments are:

Authors may consider improving their style and shortening a significant number of paragraphs by reducing them (avoiding unnecessary details), and/or splitting them into more paragraphs.

Thank you for reviewing the manuscript. The authors have revised the writing style. Meanwhile, the use of paragraphs and abbreviations has been reduced. Specific details can be seen from the revised draft.

(2)The material should be revised, the usage of acronyms reduced where possible, and too detailed presentation of numbers avoided. Paper somehow slips to technical rather than scientific report.

The use of paragraphs and abbreviations has been reduced. Specific details can be seen from the revised draft.

(3)The list of references must follow the journal standard.

Thank you for your suggestion. In the revised manuscript, the authors have already adjusted the reference style.(Lines 596-685)

(4) Title: I suggest a better title - "Multi-Scenario Simulation of Urban-Rural Land Use Spatial Reconstruction in China's Southern Jiangsu Region". The revised title maintains the essence of the original title and indicates the geographical focus (China's Southern Jiangsu Region) and the subject (Urban-Rural Land Use Spatial Reconstruction). The term ‘multi-scenario simulation’ in the beginning emphasizes the methodology used in the study.

This is an excellent proposal that indicates the geographical focus and the subject. The authors consider that highly urbanized areas is an important reason why to choice the southern Jiangsu region, so the title doesn’t change.

(5)The abstract should be shortened and style-improved.  For instance, avoid ‘one can see’, and repetition of ‘southern Jiangsu region’ (twice).  Replace the first two sentences. In keywords, add ‘factors’ after ESPE.

The authors have shortened the abstract, and reduced the frequency of southern Jiangsu region in this paper. The authors added ‘factors’ after ESPE in keywords.(Line 24)

(6)Introduction: A literature review is good. Paragraphs are long and authors should try to restructure the section 'by topics' and shorten some paragraphs, while avoiding too many details, for easy reading. SD and FLUS models could be separate paragraphs with short explanations of their characteristics, usage, results they produce, etc. Not all readers are familiar with these models. Another option is to move details about these models into subsection 2.2 where, after their brief description, naturally comes text about their connected use (‘using the land demand predicted by the SD model combined with the FLUS model ...).

Thank you for your suggestion. In this review, other experts suggested simplifying some details. Also, the authors have considered the opinions of other and made adjustments to the introduction. (Lines 155-183)

(7)Materials and methods: Insert dash lines between factor layers ESPE in Table 1.

The authors have made revisions to Table 1 based on your suggestions.(Lines 183-184)

(8)Results: Hard to read because of too long paragraphs, too many repetitions of acronyms, percentages with two decimals (consider rounding without decimals), etc. Each scenario (A, B, C) should be described briefly with descriptive wording pointing out only the main facts. Otherwise, the reader is overburdened with unnecessary details. Consider avoiding some less important figures and supporting texts and try to concentrate only on the most important findings. Rewrite (consider also avoiding!) the whole subsection 3.3.1. No need to describe the parameters setting and Table 3 should be deleted.  Similarly, in subsection 3.3.2. there are too many unnecessary details.

In the revised manuscript, the authors have rounded decimals and removed duplicate details in the result analysis. Table 3 has also been deleted.

(9)The discussion is correctly presented.

Thank you for your comments.

(10)Conclusions: The last paragraph (part referring to limitations of research presented), in slightly extended form, should be also commented on at the end of the Introduction.

This suggestion is very creative. Moreover, the opinions of one of the experts were also taken into account, and the authors made revisions to the introduction.

“……The contribution of this study mainly includes two aspects: 1) The research object of this study is the southern Jiangsu region, which is conducive to alleviating the urban-rural land use conflict in highly urbanized areas; 2) The use of a model combining SD and FLUS for analysis enriches the research methods of land use simulation. One of the key issues to be addressed in the SD-FLUS model is the rational selection of multidimensional indicators and the construction of their relationship with changes in land quantity.”(Lines 100-107)

(11)Authors should correct all typos and check grammar.

The authors have checked the grammar in this paper.

(12) The reference format of the manuscript is not consistent with the format of LAND

Journal. Authors should cite all references with reference numbers and place numbers in square brackets (“[ ]”), e.g., [1], [1–3], or [1,3].

In the revised manuscript, the authors have already adjusted the reference style. (Lines 596-685)

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf

Round 2

Reviewer 1 Report

Comments and Suggestions for Authors

I have no other comments, thank you.

Reviewer 3 Report

Comments and Suggestions for Authors

Significantly improved. My requests are followed in right way.