1. Introduction
Over the past decades, greenhouse gases emissions have emerged as the key factor triggering global warming and extreme weather events [
1,
2]. Greenhouse gas emissions are rising globally, which increased by 50.6% from 1990 to 2020 [
3,
4]. Since the industrial revolution, the global average temperature has increased by over 1.45 ± 0.12 °C [
5]. Among all of global greenhouse gases, over 90% belongs to CO
2 [
6], so controlling CO
2 emissions has become the consensus of the world community [
7,
8]. China has pledged that by 2030, it will reach its peak of carbon emission and that by 2060, it will have achieved carbon neutrality [
9].
Land resources provide the essential place for human survival and development [
10,
11,
12,
13]. The land use change from human activities has increasingly affected the global ecosystems, a key factor that distributes greenhouse gas emissions. Between 1850 to 2017, changes in land use accounted for one-third of global carbon emissions [
14]. Industrial land is an indispensable element of industrial production and an essential part of the promotion of industrialization. Rapid industrial land expansion destroys the carbon sequestration process of natural land and consumes large amounts of energy, resulting in increased carbon emissions [
15,
16].
With the tactical rise of Central China and the implementation of the Western development strategy, the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) of China has achieved rapid industrial development. From 2004 to 2021, the added value of the industrial sector in the YREB rose from RMB 2.75 trillion to RMB 17.23 trillion, multiplying by 5.3 [
17]. However, the YREB has endured the prolonged pressure of both industrial land supply and industrial emission reduction. The industrial land of the YREB grew from 3997.36 km
2 to 4835.88 km
2 from 2012 to 2021. In 2021, the industrial sector in the YREB emitted 30.58 billion tons of carbon dioxide, accounting for 31.1% of the country’s emissions [
18]. Industrial land carbon emission intensity (ILCEI) reflects the industrial carbon emissions per unit area of industrial land. A high ILCEI means that industrial production consumes a lot of energy and emits a lot of industrial carbon emissions per unit of industrial land, which is not conducive to addressing the challenges of global climate change. Therefore, The YREBC strives to, and shall, take appropriate measures to inhibit ILCEI and achieve the national goal of reaching the carbon peak and mitigating the heat island effect in industrial areas [
19].
Inclusive finance represents a financial system aiming at providing marginalized groups’ access to financial tools and services, excluded from the traditional financial system [
20]. With the advancement of information technology, digital inclusive finance (DIF) has emerged, which is a financial service that integrates digital technologies such as mobile Internet, big data, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, blockchain, and other digital technologies with traditional financial service models. DIF supports financial services like payment, finance, investment, and financing [
21], and facilitates the action of inclusive finance. It reduces the financing cost, increases the financing availability, creates new trading markets, and has the potential to promote green technological innovation. Additionally, DIF improves energy efficiency, thereby reducing regional carbon emissions. Many scholars support this concept. Zhao et al. [
22], Yang et al. [
23], Su and Cao [
24], Jiang [
25], and Lee and Wang [
26] agreed that the DIF can inhibit the carbon emission intensity in China. Furthermore, Yu et al. [
27] found that inclusive digital finance has a more profound impact on lowering CO
2 emissions in highly industrialized, high-income cities based on the data of 60 emerging and nonemerging economies. Referring to the data of BRICS countries, Pu et al. [
28] found that financial technologies contribute to lower emissions and support environmental sustainability. Alsedrah [
29] agreed that an increase in green financial practices, fintech adoption, and the use of renewable energy help mineral-rich countries reduce CO
2 emissions. However, since DIF aids and boosts manufacturing and industrial activities, it can lead to a higher level of carbon emissions that, in turn, increase global warming. Furthermore, DIF also fosters economic activities, which increases carbon emissions by increasing the demand for polluting energy sources. Cheng et al. [
30] supported that DIF significantly promotes urban carbon emissions by increasing resident consumption. Le and Le [
31] studied a sample of 31 Asian countries and found that financial inclusion appears to have led to higher emissions of CO
2 in the region. In general, the existing literature lacks research on the impact of DIF on the ILCEI, particularly in the YREB of China, a region witnessing rapid industrialization with the characteristics of rapid growth of industrial carbon emissions and land.
Based on the provincial data of the YREB from 2011 to 2021, this paper intends to theoretically analyze and empirically investigate the impact of DIF on ILCEI. The main contributions are as follows: (1) This paper investigates the effects of DIF on ILCEI. in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), a region undergoing rapid industrialization. It contributes to the advancement and practice of DIF, fostering sustainable green development in the industrial sector. (2) This paper examines the direct impact of DIF on ILCEI, and uncovers the intermediary mechanism between them, highlighting the catalytic role of the industrial R&D investment while expounding on how DIF specifically affects ILCEI. (3) This paper adopts a threshold effect model to probe the nonlinear impact of DIF on ILCEI, providing a valuable reference for policymakers to formulate scientific carbon emission policies across different periods.
4. Characteristics of ILCEI
The characteristics of ILCEI are shown in
Table 2 and
Figure 2. The regional ILCEI reduced from 0.7391 ton/m
2 in 2021 to 1.108 ton/m
2 in 2012 (
Figure 3 and
Figure 4). After the 18th CPC National Congress in 2012, China strengthened its industrial development and implemented several emission reduction policies. Impacted by this development, the ILCEI level in the YREB, which had previously exceeded the standard, exhibited a significant downward trend after 2012. From a provincial perspective, Shanghai has the lowest level of ILCEI, with an annual average ILCEI below 0.25 ton/m
2. This has become the precedent for other provinces to follow to utilize land resources, reduce carbon emissions, and promote sustainable industrial development. This is followed by Hubei, Zhejiang, and Chongqing, with an annual average ILCEI below 0.53 ton/m
2. With the development of the economy and an enhanced quality of life, the provincial governments of these provinces have strengthened the environmental framework and enacted more environmental policies to reduce carbon emissions. Hunan, Guizhou, and Yunnan have the highest levels of ILCEI in the YREB, with their annual average ILCEI being higher than 1. In Yunnan, particularly, ILCEI has been higher than 1.2 ton/m
2 for several years, which is a contrast to other provinces with low ILCEI. Although this province produced a relatively small emission of industrial CO
2, its industrial land scale remains the lowest in the region. Yunnan faces the joint challenge of introducing green production technologies to reduce carbon emissions while strategically expanding its industrial land capacity.
The average ILCEI in the lower reach region is 0.5829 ton/m
2 (
Table 2), which is higher than that of the entire region (0.7906 ton/m
2), the middle reach region (0.7745 ton/m
2), and the upper reach region (1.0104 ton/m
2). The lower reach region is one of the centers of China’s economy and the hub of capital and technology. It is pursuing a path of high-quality industrial development model, and actively promoting an advanced and sustainable manufacturing industry.
The ILCEI level in the middle reach regions is lower than that of upper reach regions but higher than the lower reach region. Middle reach regions remain the important industrial base of China, producing a lot of carbon emissions. They are adjacent to the eastern coastal areas of China, which is conducive to adopting advanced production technology [
46].
The upper reach region is situated in the inland and western regions. Its industrial structures are primarily comprised of traditional labor-intensive and resource-intensive industries. This region has a weak economic foundation and technology accumulation, and struggles to attract advanced manufacturing investments. Utilizing the Western development strategy of China proposed in 1999, the region has undertaken the production transfer from developed eastern areas, with high-emission industries being introduced. This has had negative effects on ILCEI.
Generally, the overall level of ILCEI in middle and upper reach regions is still relatively lower than that of lower reach regions. There is great potential for improving the regional ILCEI in middle and upper reach regions. Concerning future developments, a regulatory framework for the industrial upgrade of carbon emission regulation must be implemented and constantly updated.
6. Conclusions
6.1. Main Findings
As a powerful engine that inhibits carbon emissions, the DIF plays a crucial role in supporting China’s carbon peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060. This study aims to fill the gap in the existing research by providing empirical evidence on how DIF influences ILCEI in the YREB. The paper provides new insights for policymakers and contributes to achieving carbon reduction goals and the sustainable use of industrial land.
This paper analyzed the spatial–temporal features of ILCEI in the YREB of China between 2012 and 2021, and found that the ILCEI in the region revealed a downward trend during the study period, and the regional ILCEI reduced from 0.7391 ton/m
2 in 2021 to 1.108 ton/m
2 in 2012. There are substantial differences in carbon ILCEI; higher upstream and lower downstream, which coincides with the results of Xie et al. [
19]. This paper also explores the impact mechanism and effects of DIF on ILCEI. The analysis of intermediary and threshold effects provides insights into the internal impacts of DIF on ILCEI. Conclusively: (1) The DIF significantly inhibits ILCEI in the basic model. This is evident after using robustness tests. The conclusion confirms
Hypothesis 1. Additionally, foreign trade and investment dependence have a notable negative effect on ILCEI. (2) Nonlinear tests indicate that the inhibitory effect of DIF on ILCEI is influenced by ILEAD, exhibiting a gradual decline.
Hypothesis 2 is valid. (3) Regarding its impact channels, the DIF promotes the growth of IRDI, which subsequently inhibits ILCEI.
Hypothesis 3 is verified.
6.2. Policy Enlightenment
Based on these conclusions, this study proposes the following policy recommendations: (1) The government should promote the coordinated development of DIF across all regions. In the upper reach region with relatively low DIF levels, favorable policies should be implemented and more financial resources should be allocated to promote regional development by the government. In lower and middle reach regions with high DIF levels, regulatory authorities should enhance supervision for development, formulate more effective regulatory policies, and perfect financial risk prevention mechanisms. (2) Financial institutions should actively promote digital finance development, intensify reform and innovation efforts, create more financial products using digital technology, and promote credit resource flow to small and medium-sized industrial enterprises with insufficient credit and high potential for technological innovation. Financial institutions should be incentivized to provide preferential loans and financial products tailored for investments in energy-efficient equipment and renewable energy sources. (3) To strengthen emission reduction efforts in the industrial sector, the government should implement more policies supporting industrial technological innovation. Perfecting the patent protection system and incentivizing the renovation of production equipment in industrial sectors is crucial and can be achieved through targeted fiscal and tax policies, particularly in high-emission sectors like steel, coal power, chemicals, textiles, and machinery. To promote the digital development of the industrial sector and reduce carbon emissions in the industrial production process, industrial enterprises must strengthen cooperation with digital technology companies and increase research input for low-carbon technology. (4) The government should strengthen industrial land use planning, reasonably allocate industrial land resources, and implement stricter environmental regulations in regions with high ILCEI, limiting high-emission industrial projects. This must be executed while strategically expanding industrial land capacity to alleviate the ecological pressure from industrial production. (5) The government should develop green trade, establish export-oriented college technical industrial parks, organize green trade exhibitions and green procurement, and promote international exchanges and cooperation in green products. Industrial enterprises should introduce advanced production technologies and equipment domestically and internationally. (6) The government should set higher entry thresholds for foreign investment and restrict foreign capital inflow into high-emission industrial projects, directing foreign investment into high-tech industries like biomedicine and new materials. Regular evaluation of the implementation effect of green foreign investment projects, and prompt policy revisions are a necessity. (7) The government should be obligated to constantly improve environmental regulations, formulate stricter laws and regulations on environmental protection, and strengthen regulatory oversight ensuring corporate compliance with relevant laws. Penalties for noncompliance should be substantial enough to deter violations. Additionally, establishing and improving the environmental monitoring system is very crucial.
6.3. Limitations and Further Research
The results of this study provide policymakers with empirical evidence on the best ways to mitigate the inhibitory effect of the DIF on ILCEI. Despite the valuable insights provided by this study, it is important to acknowledge its limitations. The implementation of DIF also encompasses micro-individuals such as enterprises and individuals that were excluded from this paper. On the micro level, future research can expand on this paper by exploring the enterprise level, individual level, or industry level. On the macro level, comparing the impact differences of DIF on ILCEI among various regions or countries could offer meaningful reference and guidance for the sustainable development of industrial land. Furthermore, this paper focuses solely on the mediation variables of IRDI and the threshold variable of ILEAD. Prospectively, other variables may be incorporated in the mediation tests and threshold effects. A comprehensive analysis of the spatial spillover in the impact process of DIF on ILCEI also warrants further exploration and investigation.