Assessment of the Impacts of Climate and Land Use Changes on Water Yield in the Ebinur Lake Basin
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. InVEST Model
2.3. Data Acquisition
2.4. Model Rates
2.5. Scenario Analysis
3. Results
3.1. Temporal and Spatial Dynamics of Water Yield in the Ebinur Lake Basin
3.2. Analysis of Land Use Change Characteristics during 2000–2020
3.3. Differences in Water Yield by Land Use Type
3.4. Effects of Climate Change and Land Use Modifications on Water Yield
4. Discussion
4.1. Land Use Change and Its Water Yield Characteristics
4.2. Effects of Climate Change and Land Use on Water Yield
4.3. Limitations of the InVEST Model
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Land Use | Root Depth (mm) | KC |
---|---|---|
Cropland | 2200 | 0.8 |
Forest land | 5400 | 1 |
Grassland | 2800 | 0.7 |
Water area | 100 | 1 |
Built-up land | 100 | 0.3 |
Unused land | 400 | 0.1 |
Data | Data Type and Resolution | Data Source |
---|---|---|
Precipitation | Raster 1000 m × 1000 m | Nature Earth System Science Data Center (http://www.geodata.cn, accessed on 16 June 2024) |
Reference Evapotranspiration | Raster 1000 m × 1000 m | Nature Earth System Science Data Center (http://www.geodata.cn, accessed on 16 June 2024) |
World Soil Database | Raster 1000 m × 1000 m | National Cryosphere Desert Science Data Center (https://www.crensed.ac.cn, accessed on 20 June 2024) |
Plant Available Water Fraction | Raster 1000 m × 1000 m | Nature Earth System Science Data Center (http://www.geodata.cn, accessed on 20 June 2024) |
LUCC | Raster 30 m × 30 m | Resource and Environmental Science Data Platform) (http://www.geodata.cn, accessed on 10 May 2024) |
Region | Type of Variance | Levene’s Test for Equality of Variances | t-Test for Equality of Means | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
F | Sig (P) | t | Df | Sig (P) (Two-Tailed) | ||
Karamay | Equal variance assumed | 3.028 | 0.12 | 0.944 | 8 | 0.373 |
Equal variance not assumed | 0.944 | 5.723 | 0.383 | |||
Bortala | Equal variance assumed | 0.697 | 0.428 | 1.069 | 8 | 0.316 |
Equal variance not assumed | 1.069 | 6.356 | 0.324 | |||
Ili valley | Equal variance assumed | 2.909 | 0.126 | 1.398 | 8 | 0.200 |
Equal variance not assumed | 1.398 | 7.193 | 0.204 | |||
Tacheng | Equal variance assumed | 0.09 | 0.772 | −1.553 | 8 | 0.159 |
Equal variance not assumed | −1.553 | 7.989 | 0.159 |
Actual Situation | Climate Change Scenarios | Land Use Change Scenarios | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2000 | 2010 | 2020 | S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | S5 | S6 | |
Climate | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 | 2020 | 2010 | 2020 | 2000 | 2000 | 2010 |
LUCC | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 | 2000 | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 | 2010 | 2020 |
Land Use Area/km2 | 2020 | Area of Transfer Out | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2000 | Cropland | Forest Land | Grassland | Water Area | Built-Up Land | Unused Land | |
Cropland | 9.83 | 161.17 | 13.20 | 175.38 | 7.26 | 366.84 | |
Forest land | 208.20 | 1625.89 | 19.79 | 8.54 | 116.31 | 1978.73 | |
Grassland | 2544.23 | 397.77 | 47.37 | 189.08 | 1912.06 | 5090.51 | |
Water area | 37.17 | 3.67 | 168.89 | 9.04 | 815.70 | 1034.47 | |
Built-up land | 56.88 | 0.50 | 5.78 | 0.46 | 3.91 | 67.53 | |
Unused land | 1090.99 | 37.17 | 5008.74 | 283.00 | 98.37 | 6518.28 | |
Area of transfer in | 3937.46 | 448.93 | 6970.48 | 363.83 | 480.41 | 2855.24 | 15,056.35 |
Year | LUCC | Land Use | Water Yield | Water Yield Depth (mm) (Yield per Unit Area) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Area (km2) | Pct (%) | Yearly Output (108 m3) | Pet (%) | |||
2000 | Cropland | 4547.38 | 7.70 | 0.36 | 0.90 | 7.90 |
Forest land | 2853.13 | 4.83 | 1.75 | 4.39 | 60.73 | |
Grassland | 28,580.65 | 48.39 | 19.01 | 47.82 | 66.76 | |
Water area | 2624.36 | 4.44 | 1.89 | 4.78 | 74.50 | |
Built-up land | 277.77 | 0.47 | 0.004 | 0.01 | 1.45 | |
Unused land | 20,186.09 | 34.17 | 16.71 | 42.08 | 84.28 | |
2005 | Cropland | 5243.65 | 8.88 | 0.38 | 0.88 | 7.23 |
Forest land | 2856.51 | 4.84 | 1.91 | 4.45 | 66.65 | |
Grassland | 28,064.35 | 55.06 | 20.65 | 47.87 | 73.91 | |
Water area | 2768.38 | 5.43 | 1.98 | 4.60 | 73.72 | |
Built-up land | 321.38 | 0.63 | 0.002 | 0.01 | 0.78 | |
Unused land | 19,819.82 | 38.88 | 18.2 | 42.19 | 93.47 | |
2010 | Cropland | 7253.13 | 12.27 | 0.81 | 1.69 | 11.12 |
Forest land | 1434.26 | 2.42 | 1.17 | 2.35 | 76.46 | |
Grassland | 31,161.71 | 52.73 | 23.84 | 50.22 | 76.80 | |
Water area | 1883.15 | 3.18 | 0.95 | 2.01 | 52.07 | |
Built-up land | 516.46 | 0.87 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 4.23 | |
Unused land | 16,847.82 | 28.51 | 20.75 | 43.71 | 126.04 | |
2015 | Cropland | 7508.03 | 12.71 | 0.47 | 1.19 | 6.21 |
Forest land | 1429.05 | 2.42 | 0.90 | 2.30 | 62.01 | |
Grassland | 30,895.34 | 52.28 | 19.23 | 49.12 | 62.49 | |
Water area | 1745.60 | 2.95 | 0.91 | 2.34 | 54.24 | |
Built-up land | 713.55 | 1.21 | 0.005 | 0.01 | 0.71 | |
Unused land | 16,802.68 | 28.43 | 17.63 | 45.02 | 107.34 | |
2020 | Cropland | 7508.03 | 12.71 | 0.31 | 0.83 | 3.79 |
Forest land | 1429.05 | 2.42 | 0.77 | 2.09 | 57.18 | |
Grassland | 30,895.34 | 52.28 | 17.92 | 48.60 | 59.01 | |
Water area | 1745.60 | 2.95 | 0.92 | 2.50 | 47.78 | |
Built-up land | 713.55 | 1.21 | 0.004 | 0.01 | 0.59 | |
Unused land | 16,802.68 | 28.43 | 16.95 | 45.96 | 103.50 |
LUCC | Actual Conditions | Climate Change | Land Use Change | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2000 | 2010 | 2020 | S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | S5 | S6 | |
Cropland | 0.36 | 0.81 | 0.31 | 0.22 | 0.62 | 0.29 | 0.49 | 0.46 | 0.86 |
Forest land | 1.75 | 1.16 | 0.77 | 1.60 | 2.03 | 0.85 | 0.81 | 0.90 | 1.00 |
Grassland | 19.00 | 23.84 | 17.92 | 17.60 | 23.11 | 17.84 | 19.43 | 19.36 | 23.19 |
Water area | 1.89 | 0.95 | 0.92 | 1.72 | 1.89 | 0.93 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 |
Built-up land | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 |
Unused land | 16.72 | 20.75 | 16.95 | 15.72 | 21.18 | 17.01 | 17.57 | 17.66 | 20.57 |
Total | 40.11 | 47.93 | 37.05 | 36.87 | 48.84 | 36.91 | 39.26 | 39.34 | 47.33 |
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Yang, X.; Gu, X.; Zhang, P.; Liu, J.; Zhang, W.; Long, A. Assessment of the Impacts of Climate and Land Use Changes on Water Yield in the Ebinur Lake Basin. Land 2024, 13, 1324. https://doi.org/10.3390/land13081324
Yang X, Gu X, Zhang P, Liu J, Zhang W, Long A. Assessment of the Impacts of Climate and Land Use Changes on Water Yield in the Ebinur Lake Basin. Land. 2024; 13(8):1324. https://doi.org/10.3390/land13081324
Chicago/Turabian StyleYang, Xinxin, Xinchen Gu, Pei Zhang, Jing Liu, Wenjia Zhang, and Aihua Long. 2024. "Assessment of the Impacts of Climate and Land Use Changes on Water Yield in the Ebinur Lake Basin" Land 13, no. 8: 1324. https://doi.org/10.3390/land13081324