Urban Renewal Potential of Old Urban Areas in Resource-Based Cities in Developing Countries: A Case Study of Dongsheng District, Ordos, China

Abstract

Many developing countries have experienced or are experiencing periods of rapid urbanization, and the sustainable development of resource-based cities has increasingly come under the spotlight. The extensive mining of resources, which once propelled the economic growth of these cities, has enabled the continuous construction of more urban districts. However, as these new districts become favored, the old districts in these cities tend to be overlooked. This neglect becomes particularly pronounced once the resources start to dwindle, with older districts, which lack contemporary facilities, declining over time. Dongsheng District, in China’s Ordos City, is a prime example of this phenomenon. In this study, we took Dongsheng District as the research subject to explore the urban renewal potential of old urban areas in resource-based cities in developing countries. First, we constructed an assessment system for evaluating the urban renewal potential of old urban areas in resource-based cities in developing countries. Using ArcGIS, we conducted a quantitative evaluation of the spatial distribution of urban renewal potential indicators in the assessment system. Second, we conducted a comparative analysis by juxtaposing the spatial distribution of urban renewal potential derived from the assessment system with the current land use and historical development of the study area to explore potential correlations. Third, we propose the distribution of urban renewal potential in old urban areas of resource-based cities in developing countries by discussing the research results. The research found that in relation to current land use, residential and commercial service areas are more likely to form high-potential plots. Urban villages are often considered to have high potential for urban renewal, but in these urban areas, they do not always exhibit significant urban renewal potential. Regarding the relationship with historical development, urban renewal potential generally shows a negative correlation with historical development, and most other specific indicators of urban renewal also show a correlation with historical development.

1. Introduction

Old urban areas of resource-based cities, especially in developing countries, are facing the problem of declining vitality. Dominated by the exploitation and processing of natural resources, these cities have their own particular methods for development and construction. Resource-based industries cannot always support urbanization in these cities because their leading industries often go through stages of growth, maturity, decline, and diversified regeneration [1]. With regard to urban development, due to its resource-oriented characteristics, the process of urban development can fluctuate greatly, which can lead to soaring growth in certain periods, quickly followed by shrinkage [2,3]. In terms of urban spatial patterns, resource-based cities are often more dispersed than other cities, and the expansion of their urban areas is highly dependent on the distribution of natural resources [4,5,6]. In response to the characteristics of industries, urban development, and urban spatial patterns, certain macro-control measures and detailed planning should be offered to these cities to help them develop sustainably. However, in countries in the early stages of development, due to the lack of professional guidance and master plans, most resource-based cities developed their land rapidly in an extensive and random way, leaving the old urban areas in poor condition.

Based on the development and construction methods of resource-based cities, we compared world-renowned resource-based cities (

Table 1. Comparison of characteristics of famous resource-based cities in developed and developing countries.

Type	Country	City	Urban Area Structure	Leading Industries
Developed country	Britain	Aberdeen	Monolithic and aggregated	Energy, life sciences, food and drink, technology and digital
	USA	Pittsburgh	Overall gathered, scattered around urban clusters	Advanced manufacturing, climate tech and decarbonization, cybersecurity, energy, life sciences and healthcare, robotics and AI, space
	Canada	Calgary	Monolithic and aggregated	Aerospace, agribusiness, creative industries, energy and environment, financial services, digital media and entertainment, life sciences, technology, transportation and logistics
	USA	Houston	Overall gathered, radiating from the center outward into a distribution of urban clusters	Business services, technology, aerospace, medicine, manufacturing
Developing country	Russia	Kursk	Two urban regions formed in the north and south, relatively independent of each other	Iron and steel, electric power, machine manufacturing, metalworking, food processing
	Azerbaijan	Baku	Scattered around urban clusters	Oil and gas extraction, shipbuilding, steelmaking, mechanical engineering, chemical manufacturing
	China	Daqing	Two urban regions formed in the east and west, with the middle separated by non-urban areas, relatively independent of each other	Mining, manufacturing, power, construction

Note: Urban area structure is mainly based on satellite maps.

) in developed countries—Aberdeen in the UK, Pittsburgh and Houston in the United States, and Calgary in Canada [7,8,9,10]—with those in developing countries—Kursk in Russia, Baku in Azerbaijan, and Daqing in China [11,12,13]. We found that different from cities in developed countries, resource-based cities in developing countries tend to have certain characteristics. First, the urban area structure is easily scattered or split, and second, it is more prone to the problem of industrial transformation. These characteristics have led to the decline of old urban areas in resource-based cities in many developing countries.

Referring to several typical cities in Georgia and China [14,15,16], the decline of old urban areas can be roughly summarized into three stages (Figure 1). The first stage is rapid expansion. Resource-based cities in early developing countries could obtain sufficient construction funds by leveraging their resource advantages, and rapid urban expansion formed large areas as the central parts of these cities. Several scattered urban settlements are established near natural resources, relying on resource exploitation and processing factories. The second stage is the formation of new urban districts or areas. Old urban areas fail to meet the contemplated standards of a modern city, and as a result, new developments and construction are located outside of old urban areas, where more land can be used, and there is better transportation or scenery. Settlements scattered around these cities eventually begin to merge into some advantageous areas or merge with the city. The third stage is the shifting stage, during which the new district takes over the dominant position of the old district. Due to the reduction of natural resource stocks and the lack of alternative industries or technological progress, resource-oriented industries start to decline, and the income of the city cannot continue to support the development of both old and new urban districts. The building environment and infrastructure of the new urban district are more attractive. With increasing investment in all kinds of funding, new districts become the main concern of the whole city. The old urban areas become “forgotten”. At this stage, with less attention to all aspects, these old areas experience urban problems (such as decreased land value, loss of population, low quality of living environment, and damage to the natural environment). It is imperative to take action to renew and revive these old urban areas.

As a typical example, Dongsheng District, which is located in the southwest of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China, is the old district of Ordos City, famous for its coal and natural gas. Relying on the local mineral resources, Dongsheng District was the first urbanized area in Ordos and underwent rapid urban expansion, growing 10 times bigger in just 25 years. In 2004, to show the city’s ambition, Ordos announced the establishment of Kangbashi New District, which is about 25 km from Dongsheng District. With the relocation of major public facilities from Dongsheng District to Kangbashi New District and a massive injection of funds, the new urban district completed its basic construction in a few years [17]. However, as the development of resource-based industries in Ordos was hindered, the pace of urbanization in Ordos slowed down significantly. Since the municipal government was moved to Kangbashi New District and the construction there is of high quality, Ordos chose to invest more in the construction of Kangbashi New District [18,19]. Under these circumstances, Dongsheng District, the old urban area, is facing various urban issues, affecting the built environment, public services, and residents’ lives. In terms of the built environment, Dongsheng District faces problems such as a high rate of idle urban land, excess commercial land and buildings, a large number of unfinished buildings, and many “urban villages” [20,21] (in China, urban villages refers to rural villages that have lost or nearly lost their cultivated land within urban built-up areas during the process of rapid urbanization, but still maintain villagers’ autonomy and rural collective ownership. The villagers still live in the original villages, which are usually in poor condition). Regarding public services, there is an inadequacy in supporting public service facilities, such as a severe shortage of parking facilities [22]. In terms of residents’ lives, the district is experiencing population loss and insufficient resident retention intentions [23].

Taking Ordos Dongsheng District as the research area and sample, in this study we aimed to identify the renewal potential characteristics of old urban areas in resource-based cities in developing countries and explore feasible urban renewal strategies. After the literature review of what has been studied or summarized in this specific area, Section 3 describes the construction of a renewal potential assessment system, with data collected from multiple sources and the calculation of various indicators to assess the overall urban renewal potential. Section 4 presents the results, and the final section concludes the main points and provides suggestions and future research directions.

2. Literature Review

Urban development inevitably leads to urban renewal at a certain stage; therefore, urban renewal is a research field with a long history. Moreover, it is imperative to acknowledge that the objectives and modalities of urban renewal are intricately intertwined with the developmental phases of urban areas. Thus far, urban renewal remains replete with novel opportunities for deeper academic inquiry [24]. In recent years, most cities in the world have been in the process of rapid urbanization, especially in developing countries, where development is still on the rise. Cities in developed countries, which have already passed or are about to pass the stage of rapid urbanization, are more inclined toward refining their urban renewal tasks. Therefore, research on urban renewal tends to focus on the community, cultural, gentrification, and other directions [25,26,27]. Unlike developed countries, most cities in developing countries are still in the stage of rapid urbanization. While rapid urbanization brings opportunities to these cities, it also brings a series of urban issues. At present, the primary goal of urban renewal in developing countries is still to alleviate the urban issues caused by extensive development [28,29]. The decline of old urban areas in resource-based cities in developing countries is one typical problem.

Recently, scholars have conducted research on urban issues in resource-based cities in developing countries. We searched for related research and found that many studies have explored the sustainable development and transformation of resource-based cities in developing countries from various macro perspectives. Some scholars have constructed sustainability indices for these cities based on macro dimensions such as environment, society, and economy, made classifications, and provided improvement recommendations [30,31]. Tan et al. [32] explored the transformational factors by comparing multiple cities. Yu et al. [33] analyzed the relationship between environmental and economic development during the transformation process and proposed relevant policy recommendations. Fan and Zhang [34] analyzed the impact of China’s sustainability-related policies on the development of resource-based cities and summarized the types and characteristics of these cities.

Other research has also adopted a relatively micro perspective. Yang et al. [35] analyzed the sustainability of these cities from an economic perspective and further classified them based on their regional distribution and life stages. Yang et al. [36] constructed an evaluation system from an ecological and environmental perspective, providing references for improving the ecological carrying capacity of these cities. Song et al. [37] summarized the spatiotemporal evolution mechanism and driving factors of carbon emissions in these cities by observing carbon emission patterns. Song et al. [38] calculated the land-use efficiency of multiple resource-based cities in China and explored their determinants.

These studies can provide experience with and references for urban renewal of resource-based cities in developing countries, but further research is still needed. First, in terms of research scale, most of the relevant research has treated resource-based cities in developing countries as whole regions. However, as urban development and resource depletion occur, new issues and contradictions can arise between different regions within these cities, necessitating more specific and targeted research. Second, in terms of research perspective, most of the relevant research has adopted a relatively macro perspective. Although some scholars have started to pay attention to some micro-level issues in their work, there are still many new issues that have not been covered. A micro-level perspective is the main direction for future related research. However, some scholars have conducted research on the land issues of resource-based cities in developing countries, and their research methods focus on land use efficiency in cities. As land is the primary carrier of urban activities and is a comprehensive and complex system, factors such as land use patterns, the built environment, urban population activities, and residents’ preferences will interact with it. Currently, there is a lack of in-depth research systematically examining the urban land system in resource-based cities in developing countries.

In Ordos, China, the study area of this research, the urban issues arising from resource dominance have also caught the attention of other scholars. Some scholars have conducted research on the urban issues caused by rapid expansion in the region. Woodworth [39] analyzed a series of challenges faced by Ordos during its rapid expansion facilitated by mineral resources. Yin et al. [40] conducted research on the issue of “ghost cities” resulting from the rapid expansion of the Kangbashi New Area. Yin et al. [41] also explored the issue of farmers losing their land due to rapid urbanization, and Liu et al. [42] explored the coordination among various urban regions in Ordos. These studies primarily focused on the challenges faced by the early development of the new urban areas in Ordos. However, as policies shifted and the new urban areas became more refined, they gradually overcame the challenges of inadequate vitality. Instead, the decline of the Dongsheng District, which is the old urban area, became a new issue. This new issue is also a typical one that arises during the development process of resource-based cities in developing countries. Further targeted research is needed to address these issues.

3. Materials and Methods

3.1. Study Area

Dongsheng District, under the jurisdiction of Ordos City, is located in the southwest of the Inner Mongolia (Neimenggu) Autonomous Region of China, situated deep within the Ordos Plateau. It is the oldest district of Ordos. The research area of this study is the main urban area of Dongsheng District, covering an area of approximately 79.5 square kilometers. The Baoshen Railway runs north–south through the city, dividing Dongsheng District into two parts: Tiedong, east of the railway, and Tiexi, west of the railway (see Figure 2). The Tiedong area is older and was established earlier, while the urban construction of the Tiexi area is relatively recent (see Figure 3).

As an old district, Dongsheng District has many years of urban development and has accumulated a series of advantages, but it also faces certain challenges. The research team conducted multiple field investigations, had comprehensive interviews and consultations with local government departments and residents, and distributed questionnaires in order to form a basic understanding of the current situation in the study area. In terms of advantages, the first is the formation of a relatively complete urban spatial pattern framework, with a clear development axis, a well-developed road system, and the creation of an attractive core area in the central part of the city. Second, there is a well-established array of urban public service resources, including numerous city-level educational, cultural, and sports facilities. Third, there is a high rate of urbanization with a sufficient population of over 500,000 people (in 2020, the urbanization rate of Dongsheng District was recorded at 95.13%, and the population was the highest in the entire city of Ordos), which can support future development.

Regarding the issues, the first is the problem of “urban villages”. A large proportion of the urban area consists of urban villages where the advantageous resources are distributed, and the local residents have little willingness to relocate, making it difficult to improve or rebuild these areas. Second, there is the problem of idle resources and insufficient development momentum. Due to the overly rapid expansion of the city and the new district attracting a large share of the construction funds, many buildings in the old district are currently in an incomplete state or are idle. Third, there is a lack of public services, such as parking facilities and parks.

3.2. Research Framework

This research followed the strategy of collecting data, constructing an assessment system, and analyzing the results (see Figure 4). First, we collected and processed research data, which involved collecting topographic map data, the third National Spatial Survey data, questionnaire survey data, public service facilities POI, field interviews, land use, and historical maps. Second, based on the characteristics of the research area and related research findings, we constructed an urban renewal potential assessment system, then weighted and analyzed the collected data using ArcGIS (ArcGIS 10.8, Esri, Redlands, CA, USA) to produce the spatial distribution of various renewal potential indicators in the assessment system. Third, we conducted a comparative analysis by juxtaposing the spatial distribution of urban renewal potential derived from the assessment system with the current land use and historical development of the study area to explore potential correlations. Finally, we discuss the output results and propose the spatial distribution of urban renewal potential.

3.3. Urban Renewal Potential Assessment System

In this research, we constructed an assessment system consisting of 3 dimensions, 6 factors, and 16 indicators ranging from macro to micro (refer to Figure 5). At the level of dimensions and factors, referring to the existing urban issues in the built environment, public service, and residents’ lives in the study area, and drawing from other relevant research, key factors contributing to urban renewal potential are primarily concentrated in three aspects: land, building, and resident [43,44]. Based on this, the assessment system of this study was built based on the three dimensions of land development status, architectural and spatial environment quality, and coordination difficulty of renewal and redevelopment, which were further subdivided into six factors: land base value, land development intensity, construction status, facility provision, property rights complexity, and willingness for renewal. In terms of indicator levels, we constructed 16 indicators by synthesizing existing indicators from relevant research, the characteristics of resource-based cities in developing countries, and the characteristics of Dongsheng District. First, drawing from existing indicators in relevant research [45,46,47,48], we propose the following: traffic accessibility, population aggregation, landscape environment, floor area ratio, building density, educational facilities, medical facilities, elder care facilities, commercial facilities, parks and green spaces, sports facilities, and property rights complexity. Second, based on the development characteristics of resource-based cities in developing countries, we propose construction height and building quality. Third, based on the characteristics of Dongsheng District itself, we propose building function and willingness to renew. The overall renewal potential can be obtained by weighted calculations of all indicators.

The weights of Indicators at each level in the assessment system were jointly determined by the research team and experts. First, the research team referred to the weights of indicators in the relevant research to establish the initial weight of each indicator, as follows: land development status, 0.3; architectural and spatial environment quality, 0.4; and coordination difficulty of renewal and redevelopment, 0.3. Subsequently, based on the total weights of dimensions, the specific weights of factors and indicators were determined. The sum of the weights of the 16 indicators was ultimately set to 1. Second, the research team visited local experts in Dongsheng District and, through discussions and consultations with these experts, finally determined the weight of each indicator (the research team received support from the Ordos Natural Resources and Planning Bureau, which is responsible for formulating and implementing urban planning, land use planning, environmental protection planning, and other planning initiatives. Most of its internal staff are local residents of Dongsheng District. The research team selected personnel who were familiar with the local situation and possessed an excellent background in urban planning and urban renewal as experts to discuss the weights of indicators and data collection tasks) (Expert Scoring Method: An expert group publicly selects one expert as the leader, who organizes an open discussion to determine the specific weights of each indicator. The sum of the proportions of the indicators within each factor group is 1. The specific proportion of each indicator is obtained by multiplying its proportion within the group by the corresponding proportion of the higher-level factor group) (see Appendix A).

The data sources and calculation formulas in the assessment system were also subjected to expert consultation and discussion. Each indicator was scored on a five-point scale, with higher scores indicating a greater likelihood of renewal (specific scoring criteria and calculation formulas are provided in Appendix A). In terms of the overall assessment of urban renewal potential, the data were divided into five categories using the Fisher–Jenks Natural Breaks method (the number of categories for results: Based on the principle of minimizing the maximum within-class variance. The data show that when classified into five categories, increasing the number of categories no longer significantly reduces the within-class variance), namely: Low potential block, Medium and low potential block, Medium potential block, Medium-high potential block, and High potential block.

3.4. Comparative Analysis of Urban Renewal Potential Based on Current Land Use and Historical Development

Using the urban renewal assessment system, the research team determined the spatial distribution of each indicator and the overall urban renewal potential. They compared these spatial distributions with the current land use and the historical development of the main urban areas of the study area mentioned in previous sections, analyzing the relationships between various types of urban renewal potential and the spatial distribution of these characteristics.

First, the research team extracted blocks with a score of 5 for each indicator and the high-potential blocks in the overall urban renewal potential. Then, using the intersect function in ArcGIS, these blocks were overlaid with the current land use and historical development of the study area. For current land use, by overlaying blocks, we can directly obtain the composition and proportions of the current land use of the target blocks. For historical development, the research team first assigned scores to the study area in chronological order from low to high (see Figure 3): regions developed before 1985 were assigned a score of 1, regions developed between 1985 and 2006 were assigned a score of 2, regions developed between 2006 and 2010 were assigned a score of 3, and regions developed from 2010 to the present were assigned a score of 4. Then, through block intersects, we calculated the average value of high-potential blocks in terms of historical development. The calculation formula is as follows:

$$x={\displaystyle \frac{a\times 1+b\times 2+c\times 3+d\times 4}{e}},$$

(1)

where x is the score of high-potential blocks in terms of historical development, and a, b, c, and d represent the area of regions assigned a value of 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively, and e is the total area of high-potential blocks.

3.5. Data and Materials

The research team conducted field research and collected data in the study area five times from September 2021 to July 2022 (totaling about two months), during which they closely observed and analyzed the built environment and engaged in in-depth discussions with residents and government department workers at various levels. The data sources involved in this research are quite complex, including topographic maps (topographic map refers to a graphic representation of the surface relief, geographical location, and the horizontal projection of shapes. The topographic map includes information such as building outlines, building materials, and building heights required for this research and is produced and maintained by professional surveying organizations organized by local governments throughout China), the third national land space survey (“The Third National Survey of Land Resources” is organized by the Chinese government’s official surveying authorities. It is a survey aimed at comprehensively understanding the types, areas, distribution, and ownership of land nationwide, establishing a land survey database. These data can provide first-hand basic information for land use approval, farmland protection, and adjustments in agricultural industry structure. They are maintained by the natural resources departments of local governments throughout China), points of interest of public service facilities, questionnaire surveys, and on-site interviews and research, with diverse methods of acquisition.

The team applied for the topographic map and third national land space survey data from the Ordos City Natural Resources Bureau. Points of interest in public service facilities were obtained from Baidu Maps, an open public platform, as detailed in the data availability statement.

Questionnaire survey data were obtained by the research team through the distribution of questionnaires and with the support of relevant government departments. The questionnaires were mainly used to collect information about residents’ willingness for urban renewal. The questionnaire design referred to relevant literature on the difficulties and issues encountered by residents when urban renewal actions are spontaneously undertaken, covering aspects such as the economic situation and benefits, the consistency of residents’ attitudes toward urban renewal actions, and the complexity of stakeholders [49,50]. The questionnaire comprised 21 questions (see Appendix B for details). From October 2022 to January 2023, the research team distributed the questionnaire online and collected 341 questionnaires, of which 325 were valid, resulting in a 95.31% effective response rate. The design of the questionnaire was proposed by the team based on the research purpose and was later modified by the Ordos City Natural Resources Bureau based on local characteristics and information collection requirements. The distribution of the questionnaire was strongly supported by the Ordos City Natural Resources Bureau, which promoted its distribution to the public for research through its official government internet account (WeChat (Tencent, Shenzhen, China)).

The research team conducted on-site field surveys and interviews with members of various government departments and organizations to verify the collected data, enhancing the objectivity and timeliness of the data. During their field research, the team walked and cycled across every plot to tally, measure, and quantify the collected data and recorded their findings. Based on the issues encountered, local residents were randomly interviewed, and written records were made. The research team visited the 12 street offices (“Street” is the smallest administrative division in China, with the administrative agency being the Street Office. Dongsheng District in Ordos includes a total of 12 streets) involved in this study to understand the current situation and future development plans. The government departments included the following: Dongsheng District Government, Ordos City Natural Resources Bureau, Dongsheng District Planning Bureau, Dongsheng District Housing Management Bureau, Dongsheng District Planning Center, Dongsheng District Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau, Dongsheng District Rebuilt Office, Dongsheng District Culture and Tourism Bureau, Dongsheng District Garden Bureau, Dongsheng District Traffic Police Department, Dongsheng District Education and Sports Bureau, and Dongsheng District Health and Health Committee. The research and interview data were used to verify the other sets of collected data.

4. Results

4.1. Results of Urban Renewal Potential Assessment System

4.1.1. Land Development Status

Land base value

(1) Road Connectivity

The overall road connectivity in the study area is relatively high and shows a decreasing trend from the center to the outskirts (see Figure 6). The central area basically achieves full coverage with a 300 m road buffer zone, while the edges of the study area, especially in the northeast and south, lack sufficient road connectivity.

(2) Population Aggregation

There are significant differences in population aggregation within the study area (see Figure 7). The city center has a higher degree of population aggregation. Most plots in the study area have low potential, with only a small part in the south-central area showing higher potential. The potential is slightly higher in the area west of the railway compared to the area east of the railway.

(3) Landscape Environment

There are significant differences in the potential of the landscape environment (Figure 8). The southern region, through which the river flows, has a higher potential for the landscape environment and extends from the south to the central part; the peripheral areas in the northeast and southwest do not have such potential.

Land development intensity

(1) Floor Area Ratio

The results of this indicator are relatively scattered, with a general trend of increasing from the center outward (see Figure 9). The eastern sector and the western fringe are the main distribution areas for high-potential plots. Larger plots tend to have higher potential.

(2) Building Density

There are significant differences in the potential of building density; the potential generally decreases from the center outward and is higher in the east than in the west (see Figure 10). The central-eastern area of the study area is the main high-potential area.

4.1.2. Architectural and Spatial Environmental Quality

Construction Status

(1) Building Function

The overall building function potential shows a distribution of higher in the east and lower in the west (see Figure 11). With the railway as a boundary, the urban area east of the railway has significantly higher potential than the area to the west.

(2) Building Height

The distribution of building height potential is relatively scattered (see Figure 12). The overall potential shows an increasing trend from the center towards the periphery. Areas with lower potential are mostly scattered in the center and eastern part of the study area.

(3) Building Quality

Building quality potential is higher in the east and lower in the west (see Figure 13). Areas with higher potential are mainly the peripheral regions of the urban area east of the railway.

Facility Provision

(1) Educational Facility Provision

The overall potential for educational facility provision in the study area shows a ring-shaped distribution that is low in the center, high in the middle, and low in the periphery (see Figure 14). Specifically, high-potential plots are mainly distributed in the southeastern and northwestern areas of the ring.

(2) Medical Facilities

There is a trend for this indicator to decrease from the center to the outskirts (see Figure 15). Using the railway as a boundary, there are some high-potential plots both to the west and east of the railway, but the high-potential plots are significantly more numerous in the area east of the railway.

(3) Elder Care Facilities

The potential for elder care facilities has a clear cluster distribution characteristic (Figure 16). High-potential plots have formed two relatively concentrated clusters in the northwest and southeast of the study area.

(4) Commercial Facilities

The commercial facility potential is higher in the east and lower in the west (Figure 17). High-potential plots are mainly distributed in the area east of the railway.

(5) Parks and Green Spaces

The distribution of parks and green spaces is higher in the west and lower in the east (Figure 18). The area west of the railway has generally higher potential, followed by the southern area; the eastern area, especially the northeast, lacks coverage.

(6) Sports Facilities

The potential for sports facilities also has a clear cluster distribution characteristic (Figure 19). High-potential plots have formed two relatively concentrated clusters in the northwest and southeast of the study area.

4.1.3. Coordination Difficulty in Renewal and Redevelopment

Property Rights Complexity

The overall complexity of property rights is higher in the west and lower in the east (Figure 20). To the west of the railway, the area is mainly dominated by easily updatable single-property entities, while the area to the east of the railway is dominated by more complex property entities.

Willingness for Urban Renewal

The willingness for urban renewal within the study area decreases from the center to the boundaries (Figure 21). Several streets where there is a strong willingness for urban renewal are mainly distributed in the central area of the study area, with a particularly strong willingness in the southern central area.

4.1.4. Overall Assessment of Urban Renewal Potential

The overall renewal potential for old urban areas shows a distribution of decreasing from the center to the outskirts, higher in the east, and lower in the west (Figure 22). Medium-high-potential and medium-potential renewal plots are mainly distributed in the central part of the study area, with high-potential renewal plots almost exclusively concentrated in the central area east of the railway. In general, the overall potential for renewal in the study area is relatively high, with a total area of renewable plots of 4553.12 ha. Based on the overall potential scores, plots in the study area can be divided into five groups as follows: (1) high-potential renewal plots with the highest scores cover an area of 434.01 ha, accounting for 9.53% of the total area and are the key plots to start urban renewal in Dongsheng District; (2) medium-high-potential renewal plots cover an area of 813.53 ha, accounting for 17.87% of the total area; (3) medium-potential renewal plots cover an area of 1274.37 ha, accounting for 27.99% of the total area; (4) medium-low-potential renewal plots cover an area of 1127.31 ha, accounting for 24.76% of the total area; and (5) low-potential renewal plots cover an area of 903.9 ha, accounting for 19.85% of the total area.

4.2. Results of Comparative Analysis

4.2.1. Comparative Analysis Based on Current Land Use

By investigating block intersections, the research team obtained the proportions of current land use types and urban villages in high-potential blocks for each indicator (

Table 2. Current proportions of land use types and urban villages with high-potential blocks for each indicator.

Indicator	Top Three Types by Proportion						Proportion of Urban Villages
	Type	Proportion	Type	Proportion	Type	Proportion
Road connectivity	Residential	46.96%	Commercial service	21.88%	Green and open space	13.34%	9.77%
Population aggregation	Residential	64.99%	Commercial service	10.55%	Industrial and mining	9.27%	2.65%
Landscape environment	Residential	39.07%	Green and open space	31.25%	Commercial service	18.11%	8.32%
Floor area ratio	Residential	49.74%	Commercial service	14.11%	Green and open space	13.35%	4.56%
Building density	Residential	49.08%	Commercial service	41.52%	Public administration and public service	4.64%	6.30%
Building function	Residential	92.82%	Industrial and mining	7.18%	——	——	4.87%
Building height	Residential	42.03%	Commercial service	14.86%	Green and open space	14.32%	9.12%
Building quality	Residential	48.51%	Green and open space	15.04%	Commercial service	14.42%	5.48%
Educational facilities	Residential	60.05%	Commercial service	15.07%	Public administration and public service	11.62%	7.16%
Medical facilities	Residential	50.36%	Commercial service	21.27%	Public administration and public service	14.10%	4.94%
Elder care facilities	Residential	52.73%	Public administration and public service	19.24%	Commercial service	16.34%	7.54%
Commercial facilities	Residential	54.26%	Commercial service	28.25%	Public administration and public service	7.43%	9.84%
Parks and green spaces	Residential	45.27%	Commercial service	19.17%	Green and open space	17.06%	3.22%
Sports facilities	Residential	48.07%	Public administration and public service	17.53%	Commercial service	15.16%	6.79%
Property rights complexity	Commercial service	31.51%	Green and open space	19.76%	Residential	14.93%	8.57%
Willingness for urban renewal	Residential	64.99%	Commercial service	10.55%	Industrial and mining	9.27%	1.22%
Overall assessment of urban renewal potential	Residential	51.86%	Commercial service	22.50%	Public administration and public service	15.14%	8.69%

Note: Only the top three categories based on current land use proportions are shown.

). The top two categories with the highest proportions of current land use types are relatively consistent, mostly residential and commercial service facilities land. The third-ranking land use types include green spaces, open spaces, public management, and public service land. For overall urban renewal potential, the top three categories are residential land, commercial service facilities land, and public management and public service land. The proportion of urban villages in high-potential blocks for each indicator is not high. In the high-potential blocks for overall urban renewal potential, the proportion of urban villages is 8.69%.

4.2.2. Comparative Analysis Based on Historical Development

By investigating block intersections, the research team obtained scores indicating correlations between various indicators and historical development. The higher the score, the later the construction age of high-potential blocks for the indicator (

Table 3. Scores of various indicators based on comparative analysis of historical development.

Indicator	Score
Road connectivity	3.22
Population aggregation	2.22
Landscape environment	2.95
Floor area ratio	3.34
Building density	2.55
Building function	3.18
Building height	3.33
Building quality	3.35
Educational facilities	2.55
Medical facilities	2.48
Elder care facilities	2.84
Commercial facilities	2.39
Parks and green spaces	3.31
Sports facilities	3.18
Property rights complexity	3.36
Willingness for urban renewal	2.22
Overall Assessment of Urban Renewal Potential	1.89

Note: Using standard deviation as the basis, the data were divided into three groups, with numerical (X) intervals as follows: X ≤ 2.2576; 2.2576 < X < 3.3424; X ≥ 3.3424.

). This supported further exploration of the relationship between urban renewal potential and historical development. Based on the standard deviation, we divided the indicators into three groups according to their scores. In the low-score group, the potential of the indicators was found to be negatively correlated with historical development, including overall assessment of urban renewal potential, population aggregation, building density, educational facilities, medical facilities, commercial facilities, and willingness for urban renewal. In the mid-score group, there was no obvious correlation between the potential of the indicators and historical development, including road connectivity, landscape environment, building function, building height, elder care facilities, parks and green spaces, and sports facilities. In the high-score group, the potential of the indicators was found to be positively correlated with historical development, including floor area ratio, building quality, and property rights complexity.

5. Discussion and Strategies

5.1. Potential Spatial Distribution Patterns

5.1.1. Discussion of Indicator-Level Results

The spatial distribution of the majority of indicators shows some correlation with the construction period of the urban areas within the study area. Through further analysis of the results (see Table 3), we found that most indicators were negatively correlated with historical development, mainly population aggregation, building density, willingness for urban renewal, and public service facilities (educational, medical, and commercial facilities), which have relatively rigid demand. Indicators that were less correlated with historical development included road connectivity, landscape environment, building function, building height, and various public service facilities (elder care facilities, parks and green spaces, and sports facilities), which improve quality of life and have more flexible demand. Finally, indicators that were positively correlated with historic development included floor area ratio, building quality, and property rights complexity.

The positive or negative correlation between indicators and historical development may be related to the economic conditions and urban planning theories during different stages of urban development. Through interviews with members of various government departments, we learned that development in the Tiedong area began in 1985. By 2006, the urban area had matured, and by 2010, urban construction was basically completed. This period marked the initial development phase of Dongsheng District, which had relatively low economic levels and building technology, resulting in generally lower building standards. At this point, these legacy buildings can no longer meet residents’ living needs, hence the widespread willingness for urban renewal among residents. Additionally, many urban villages that exist today were formed during this period, which explains the higher population and building density in these areas. Finally, urban construction during this period was primarily focused on meeting the basic living needs of residents, resulting in relatively complete basic public service facilities, including education, medical care, and commerce. From 2010 to the present, the Tiexi area experienced rapid development, with significant achievements in resource-based industries in Ordos. Therefore, the urban areas built during this period received support from China’s economic strength and were guided by contemporary urban planning theories. As a result, urban areas constructed during this phase have more suitable floor area ratios and higher building quality, while unified urban construction under planning also standardized the division of land property rights, increasing the potential for property rights complexity.

Among other indicators weakly correlated with historical development, the natural landscape, as a fixed resource, remained almost unchanged during urban construction. As for the indicators of road connectivity and building height, their unique situations are associated with the development characteristics of the study area. Urban construction in the study area did not progress uniformly. Early construction mostly consisted of small plots and low-rise buildings. During periods of rapid economic development, construction was guided by advanced urban planning theories, which, to some extent, maintained similarities with previous situations. This led to a lower correlation of these indicators with historical development. Regarding public service facility indicators (parks and green spaces, sports facilities, and elder care facilities), China has undertaken extensive community public service facility supplementation actions over the past decade [51]. In this process, the government supplemented communities lacking public service facilities at the building or even floor level. These individual buildings are dispersed among multiple historical development areas, resulting in a lower correlation of these indicators with historical development.

5.1.2. Discussion of the Overall Results

Similar to the spatial distribution of indicator-level results, the overall potential distribution is also somewhat correlated with the construction period of urban areas. This is a result of the combined effect of most of the factors and indicators, with high-potential plots mainly concentrated in older areas on the east side of the railway.

Residential and commercial service blocks are more likely to become high-potential blocks. A further comparison of indicator levels suggests that the primary factors contributing to the high redevelopment potential of these blocks are urban renewal willingness and population aggregation (here, the building function indicators are excluded from the calculation process because they contain information about some current land uses). This is closely related to the characteristics of urban development in the study area, where resource-based city industries tend to be concentrated in suburban mining areas. Initially, urban construction was mainly focused on meeting residents’ basic needs for housing and small-scale retail functions. The subsequent rapid development of industries and the economy expanded new urban areas on this basis. These high-density, low-quality residential and commercial blocks are now among the areas most in need of urban renewal. This explains why these types of blocks have higher potential population density and urban renewal willingness.

Urban villages represent a focal issue within the study area and are commonly considered prime candidates for urban renewal, especially in countries like China, but have not been achieved according to their high potential. A further comparison of factors shows that the low potential willingness to renew and the low population density in these urban village plots are major factors in their not-so-prominent general results, especially in peripheral urban villages. This is closely related to the large-scale construction of new urban areas in Ordos. According to media reports, there is a glut of buildings in Ordos, urban residents often own more than one property in Ordos, and the incentive to improve living conditions by reconstructing urban villages is no longer urgent [52,53]. Moreover, real estate companies, due to market factors, continue to focus on developing new areas, often abandoning urban village renewal projects that involve complex stakeholders and unpredictable outcomes. Urban villages, especially those that are located on the periphery of the old city centers and lack public facilities, are less attractive, leading to a significantly reduced likelihood of their renewal and, consequently, lower expectations among residents.

5.2. Contributions of This Research

This research explored the potential for urban renewal in the old districts of resource-based cities in developing countries. First, we established an assessment system for urban renewal potential in the old areas of resource-based cities in developing countries. Second, we present the spatial distribution regularity of urban renewal potential in such areas through comparative analysis.

The research findings can provide a reference for future academic studies. Currently, the assessment system constructed in this study integrates the characteristics of the research area, showing innovation and relevance. It can serve as a reference for future research in terms of assessment indicators and methods. The spatial distribution reveals a correlation between urban renewal potential in such areas and specific factors related to current land use and historical development, providing direct support for related studies. In the long run, this research provides a relatively innovative perspective for future research. Unlike related studies that concentrate on industrial transformation, sustainable development, or the ecological environment in resource-based cities of developing countries, this research adopts an urban planning and design perspective and assesses the potential for urban renewal from a spatial distribution angle. This can provide insights for relevant research on urban renewal.

Furthermore, the research findings have certain practical guiding significance for urban renewal in resource-based cities. On the one hand, by comprehensively comparing single-factor evaluation results and overall results, specific suggestions for improvement can be effectively proposed. Increasing facilities such as parks and parking lots in old urban areas generally involve two problems. The first challenge is where to build, and the second Is the issue of identifying old areas that can be demolished to make space for construction. Taking parks as an example, the distribution characteristics of parks can be clearly seen through the single-factor analysis of parks and green spaces, and new parks should be located in plots with the highest renewal potential. Combining the evaluation of renewal potential with renewal methods, it is possible to find plots where it is likely that the old buildings will be changed and the land will be reused in the near future. The related planning scheme, completed based on this research, has been highly recognized by relevant personnel and experts. The planning results have been approved by the government of Ordos City and reported as a typical case by China’s Ministry of Natural Resources (https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/PlNU8gAtHaCJhG5Ai6Litg (accessed on 31 October 2023)).

5.3. Limitations and Future Research Suggestions

Aside from its contributions, this research has certain limitations. The research focused on the main urban area of Dongsheng District in Ordos, covering an area of 79.5 square kilometers, which is a relatively macro scale, and the results and laws formed mostly reflect macro-level distribution trends and land type associations. At specific spatial scales, such as streets, communities, and even inside plots, there are different types of issues worth exploring and more specific solutions to be found. For example, including more detailed indices, such as historical and cultural value, specific environmental pollutants, and legal and policy factors, could enable a more comprehensive analysis.

Meanwhile, due to constraints on the availability of dynamic data, the index values were determined based on static data, which might not fully reflect the real-world situation. Future studies could also consider including dynamic data, such as changing real estate prices, resident income levels, and other economic factors that could influence the potential for urban renewal.

In terms of property rights, this research was mainly based on an analysis of cities under China’s public land ownership system. The renewal scenario under the private land ownership system will require further research. For example, public land ownership makes it relatively easy for the government to coordinate the renewal of various types of land, especially when it involves the renewal of state-owned property rights. The generalizability of the findings to other resource-based cities in developing countries could be improved by conducting comparative studies across multiple cities with similar characteristics.

Regarding the data sources, the data in this research came from "human"-sourced data channels, including questionnaires and interviews. For the purpose of the research, a macro spatial classification of residents based on their place of residence was conducted. However, there are more specific characteristics of these residents that could be further classified, such as age, income, gender, opinions, etc. Such detailed analyses could be further refined in subsequent research.

6. Conclusions

This research specifically addresses the issue of the decline of old districts in resource-based cities during urban development. Through comprehensive research, a renewal assessment system encompassing 3 dimensions, 6 categories of factors, and 16 indicators was designed. This system was aimed at unearthing the renewal potential characteristics of such old districts to produce evaluation results that align with local reality and formulate effective strategies to support future renewal efforts in Dongsheng District.

The assessment system was used to fully consider the unique characteristics of the research object. Dongsheng District, a typical old district in a resource-based city, faces not only the general problems prevalent in old districts, such as the interweaving of low-quality bungalow areas and newly constructed areas and insufficient public green spaces but also particular issues inherent to resource-based cities, such as the mismatch between over-advanced planning and urban industrial momentum. This also leads to old urban areas with excess commercial land, plenty of public facility land, and little industrial land. In addition, the high vehicle ownership as a result of higher per capita income puts pressure on static traffic. Designing the assessment system was a prerequisite for determining the renewal plans for the research object. Therefore, in the design of the assessment system, it was necessary to fully explore the reasons behind various problems in an effort to truly reflect the renewal potential characteristics of Dongsheng District.

Since the assessment was based on multi-source data (including official data, field survey and visitation data, internet big data, and decentralized data from citizen interviews), it not only reflects the development foundation of different areas but also integrates the actual demands of citizens and the planning intentions of the government. As a result, the assessment results can effectively help governments in decision-making and better planning. The overall renewal planning and zoning of Dongsheng District are based on the assessment results. The outcomes of this research have been highly recognized by citizens, local government agencies, and the country’s land use management department, the Ministry of Natural Resources of China. In the subsequent process of compiling detailed regulatory planning, characteristics of different zones were extracted based on the results of single-factor assessment, and zoning renewal strategies were proposed through planning and design methods. They have been embodied in specific control requirements in the form of renewal regulations and endowed with legal status and binding force.

For most old districts in resource-based cities of developing countries, it is time to systematically plan for renewal. Conducting renewal potential analysis and formulating a plan is just the beginning; the specific action plans and policies that follow are even more crucial. Especially for regions that lack high-end talent and intellectual resources, it is necessary to break down the outcomes of renewal potential evaluations and planning into specific action programs and guidelines and allow relevant personnel to clarify their tasks and initiate necessary project demonstrations to better implement renewal in such areas.