Recommending Actionable Strategies: A Semantic Approach to Integrating Analytical Frameworks with Decision Heuristics
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- An interactive simulation environment that translates natural language scenario descriptions into framework-specific parameterizations
- Semantic validation pipelines ensuring robust alignment between heuristic patterns and analytical constructs
- Large Language Model (LLM) integration constrained to explanatory reporting, preserving human strategic primacy while enhancing insight accessibility
2. Background
2.1. The 6C Framework as an Analytical Classification Tool
- Offensive Strength: The ability to proactively shape and influence the strategic landscape.
- Defensive Strength: The resilience to respond effectively to adversarial actions or challenges.
- Relational Capacity: The ability to manage and leverage relationships with external stakeholders.
- Potential Energy: The availability and strategic deployment of resources.
- Temporal Availability: The strategic use of time and timing in decision-making.
- Contextual Fit: The degree to which decisions align with the strategic context, ensuring they are well-informed and relevant.
2.2. The Thirty-Six Stratagems: Crystallized Decision Patterns
- Metaphorical Encoding: Expressed through pithy maxims like “Kill with a borrowed knife” (借刀杀人), requiring cultural-linguistic bridging
- Structural Rigor: Organized into six operational categories:
- Winning advantageous positions;
- Direct confrontation;
- Offensive maneuvers;
- Creating confusion;
- Territorial gains;
- Desperate scenarios.
- Actionable Specificity: Each stratagem defines concrete tactical patterns rather than abstract principles
2.3. Additional Strategic Frameworks
2.3.1. SWOT Analysis
- Strengths: Internal capabilities and resources that provide competitive advantages.
- Weaknesses: Internal limitations that may hinder strategic objectives.
- Opportunities: External factors or trends that could benefit the organization.
- Threats: External challenges that could negatively impact performance.
2.3.2. Porter’s Five Forces
- Competitive Rivalry: Intensity of competition among existing players.
- Supplier Power: Bargaining power of suppliers.
- Buyer Power: Bargaining power of customers.
- Threat of New Entrants: Ease with which new competitors can enter.
- Threat of Substitution: Availability of alternative products or services.
2.4. Semantic Analysis in Strategic Text Processing
- Vector Space Representations: We encode strategic concepts using word embeddings and sentence transformers, building on methods such as BERT [10], Sentence-BERT [11], that excel in capturing contextual nuances. These techniques enable mathematical operations on semantic meaning and allow us to compare entire passages or phrases in a high-dimensional embedding space.
- Topic Modeling (Optional): We can also apply Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) and related approaches [12] to identify high-level themes in strategic texts (e.g., “alliances”, “resource optimization”). Although not the core driver in our current implementation, such thematic analysis can support explainability by highlighting relevant topics that link to each framework parameter or stratagem.
- Semantic Similarity Metrics: Using cosine similarity or similar measures, we quantify relationships between vectors representing framework parameters and stratagem patterns. In our implementation with the Thirty-Six Stratagems, this objectively measures how well each stratagem aligns with specific Offensive Strength, Relational Capacity.
- Preprocessing (if needed) and Concept Extraction: In scenarios where texts are unstructured, we may apply standard NLP techniques (tokenization, chunking, domain ontology extraction). However, this step becomes straightforward if frameworks like 6C or Porter’s Five Forces are already delineated.
- Creating vector representations of framework parameters and heuristic patterns;
- Computing similarity matrices to link frameworks (e.g., 6C) with heuristics (e.g., Thirty-Six Stratagems);
- Identifying significant semantic connections and ranking them for further interpretation.
2.5. Kullback–Leibler Divergence
2.6. Why KL Divergence?
- Interpretability: It offers a straightforward interpretation of the “cost” of using an approximate distribution, aligning well with our need to validate semantic analysis against expert annotations.
- Directionality: Its asymmetric nature suits our context, where we specifically care about how well our approximate distributions match expert distributions, rather than vice versa.
- Established Usage: Its widespread adoption in machine learning and information theory provides a well-tested foundation for measuring distributional differences.
2.7. Usage in This Study
2.8. Gamification of Strategic Decision-Making
- Exploration of different strategic scenarios;
- Testing of various decision combinations;
- Immediate feedback on potential outcomes;
- Gradual learning from simulated experiences.
3. Language-Analysis Methodology
3.1. Vector Space Representation
- is the vector representationwhere of text t;
- w represents individual words or phrases;
- is the embedding vector for word w;
- is the weight assigned to word w.
- is the vector for parameter i;
- is the formal definition of parameter i;
- are associated contextual descriptions;
- is a weighting factor for contextual information.
3.2. Semantic Similarity Computation
- is the vector for parameter i;
- is the vector for heuristic j.
3.3. Distribution Discovery
3.4. Stratagem Selection Algorithm
Algorithm 1 Stratagem selection |
|
3.5. Semantic Validation
- Cross-Validation: We compare parameter–heuristic distributions generated by multiple embedding approaches (e.g., different Transformer models, dimensionality settings). If the mappings remain consistent across these variations, it indicates resilience against model-specific biases or hyperparameter choices.
- Perturbation Analysis: We introduce small textual modifications (e.g., synonyms, minor paraphrasing) to heuristic descriptions or framework definitions and observe whether the resulting distributions change drastically. A stable mapping under such perturbations implies that the system captures deeper semantic relationships rather than overfitting to exact word forms.
- Expert Review: We invite experts knowledgeable about both the analytic framework (e.g., 6C) and the heuristics (e.g., the Thirty-Six Stratagems) to label how strongly each heuristic aligns with each parameter. By comparing these expert judgments to algorithmic outputs, we can detect alignment or uncover conceptual mismatches (see Section 3.3 for details on KL divergence).
- is the cross-validation score, reflecting consistency across embedding variants;
- is the stability score, derived from perturbation analysis;
- is the expert agreement score, capturing how closely the system’s outputs align with expert annotations;
- , , and are weighting parameters that can be tuned (e.g., through trials or domain priorities).
Validation Example
- Cross-Validation:
- BERT-base: ;
- RoBERTa: ;
- Sentence-BERT: .
- Perturbation Analysis:
- Original: “Use Allies’ Resources”;
- Variant 1: “Leverage Partnership Assets”;
- Variant 2: “Utilize Collaborative Resources”.
- Expert Review:
- Expert 1: 0.55;
- Expert 2: 0.60;
- Expert 3: 0.58.
4. Computational Architecture
- Strategic Data Input Layer: Users interact with a structured graphical environment (the context editor) to input competitive intelligence data, market information, and other relevant strategic details. This environment supports both quantitative data and qualitative descriptions, with workflow states managing data validation and format requirements. Detailed implementation specifications are provided in Appendix A.4.
- Semantic Analysis Engine: This component processes input data using the methodology described in Section 3. Specifically, it:
- Creates vector representations of strategic situations;
- Computes semantic similarities with framework parameters;
- Maps situations to relevant heuristic patterns;
- Generates initial parameter distributions.
- Framework-Integration Layer: The system translates semantic analysis results into the chosen analytical framework’s parameters. This layer ensures that framework-agnostic analysis can be mapped to specific strategic tools while maintaining consistent evaluation metrics across frameworks.
- Strategic Processing Core: The main engine applies framework-specific weightings, evaluates strategic options, matches situations with relevant heuristics, and generates preliminary recommendations. The processing core incorporates conversation-state information to produce context-appropriate guidance.
- LLM-Integration Layer: The system interfaces with LLMs through standardized APIs to transform technical analysis into actionable insights. The architecture constrains LLM tasks via predefined templates to ensure structured, safe, and consistent outputs. Key functions include:
- Translation of semantic similarities into natural language explanations;
- Contextualization of framework–heuristic matches;
- Generation of both executive summaries and detailed reports;
- Template-based validation mechanisms for generated content.
- Report Generation and Visualization: The final layer produces comprehensive strategic analysis reports, visual representations of strategic options, and detailed implementation recommendations. These outputs integrate data from all prior steps, including scenario parameters, semantic analysis scores, and LLM-generated commentaries.
- Flexibility: Supports multiple strategic frameworks and heuristic sets;
- Scalability: Handles increasing complexity in strategic analysis;
- Safety: Constrains LLM use to well-defined tasks;
- Reproducibility: Ensures consistent analysis and recommendations.
Workflow Integration
- Parameter Analysis: The system analyzes actors and situations using the chosen framework’s parameters through semantic processing of input data.
- Objective Evaluation: Strategic objectives are identified and evaluated through semantic analysis of stated goals and contextual information.
- Heuristic Matching: The system matches situation parameters with relevant heuristics from the chosen set, using semantic similarity measures to rank appropriateness.
- Implementation Planning: Practical applications are derived through pattern matching between heuristic principles and concrete action possibilities.
- Risk Assessment: Potential outcomes and risks are evaluated through semantic analysis of historical patterns and contextual factors.
- Report Generation: Results are synthesized into comprehensive reports through constrained LLM processing.
5. Case Studies
- A contemporary scenario of competing innovation pathways in the automotive industry;
- A historical competition in the personal computer market.
5.1. Semantic Analysis of the Hydrogen vs. Electric Competition in the Automotive Industry
5.1.1. Parameter Analysis
5.1.2. Stratagem-Parameter Matching
5.1.3. Stratagem Semantic Analysis
- is the weight of parameter i in stratagem j;
- is the set of terms in the textual description of stratagem j;
- is the semantic similarity between term t and parameter i.
5.1.4. Situation–Stratagem Matching
5.1.5. Strategic Recommendations
- Primary Strategy: Indirect Positioning
- Stratagem 16 (Illusory Ways Out): Create paths leading ElectricEngines into complacency or unproductive markets, while HydrogenEngines solidifies niches such as freight and heavy-duty applications.
- Alignment Score: 6.03
- Supporting Strategy: Target Vulnerable Segments
- Stratagem 15 (Lure into Unfavorable Env.): Exploit EV weaknesses (e.g., limited mileage in heavy-duty use) by focusing hydrogen tech where EVs are less dominant.
- Alignment Score: 5.72
- Alliances and Borrowed Influence
- Stratagem 24 (Use Allies’ Resources) & Stratagem 3 (Act Through an Ally): Establish partnerships with governments, energy sectors, and logistics enterprises to co-develop hydrogen infrastructure and coordinate policy support.
- Alignment Scores: 5.68, 5.56
- Discreet Development Efforts
- Stratagem 1 (Acting Unnoticed): Invest quietly in R&D, infrastructure, and lobbying until hydrogen-based solutions are ready for large-scale deployment.
- Alignment Score: 5.41
5.1.6. Implementation Pathways
5.2. Semantic Analysis of the Commodore–Apple Market Competition
5.2.1. Parameter Analysis
5.2.2. Stratagem-Parameter Matching
- Offensive Strength: Keywords attack, capture, dominate
- Potential Energy: Terms resources, capabilities, power
5.2.3. Strategic Recommendations
- Primary Strategy: Core Capability Development
- Focus on product innovation and user-interface development;
- Directly counter Apple’s market differentiators;
- Alignment Score: 0.85.
- Supporting Strategy: Resource Optimization
- Reallocate development resources toward high-potential product lines;
- Streamline less profitable divisions;
- Alignment Score: 0.82.
- Tactical Implementation
- Launch targeted product-development campaigns;
- Invest in market positioning;
- Seek out strategic partnerships.
5.2.4. Implementation Pathways
5.3. Cross-Case Analysis
- Domain Adaptation:
- In the automotive domain, the semantic analysis highlighted indirect positioning and alliances as critical.
- In the PC domain, a focus on core capabilities and resource allocation emerged as priorities.
- Recurring Patterns:
- Even across distinct industries, resource optimization, partnership development, and strategic positioning are repeatedly identified as success factors.
- Specific stratagems (e.g., alliance-building) have wide applicability, provided the correct parameter alignment exists.
- Implementation Pathways:
- Both studies exhibit primary and supporting strategies, tactical steps, and cross-strategy synergies.
- Clear alignment scores lend transparency to why certain recommendations are prioritized over others.
- Framework–Heuristic Integration:
- In the automotive sector, the integrated approach effectively linked 6C parameters (e.g., Potential Energy, Context Fit) with heuristics emphasizing deception and alliance.
- In the PC sector, the same pipeline tied Offensive Strength and Potential Energy to historically proven guidelines about capturing core strengths and leveraging limited resources.
5.4. Enhanced Understanding Through LLM Reporting
- Generate Summaries: Provide executive overviews for stakeholders, focusing on the highest-scoring tactics.
- Explain Reasoning: Offer narrative justifications for why certain stratagems align well with particular parameters.
- Highlight Potential Risks: Enumerate conditions or assumptions that might invalidate certain recommendations.
5.5. Implementation Insights
- Text-Processing Nuances:
- Industry-specific jargon can alter semantic similarity calculations.
- Historical data enriches pattern recognition but may require separate preprocessing.
- Pattern Matching Consistency:
- Similar strategic patterns recur, such as positioning, resource optimization, or alliance-building.
- Modest parameter differences can push one stratagem over another in the ranking.
- Validation and Context:
- Historical (Commodore–Apple) outcomes offer tangible lessons in how lacking a suitable strategy might lead to missed market opportunities.
- Contemporary contexts (hydrogen vs. electric) show how real-time data can inform flexible, AI-assisted decisions.
5.6. Extended Analysis Reports
6. Empirical Validation
6.1. Experimental Setup
- Framework Integration: Testing with three analytical frameworks:
- 6C Framework (primary test case);
- SWOT Analysis;
- Porter’s Five Forces.
- Framework–Stratagem Integration: Testing the integration of the Thirty-Six Stratagems with each analytical framework
- Cross-Framework Consistency: Evaluating recommendation stability across frameworks
6.2. Results
6.2.1. Framework-Integration Performance
- High coverage (>0.80) across all frameworks;
- Strong consistency in parameter mapping;
- Declining but still robust performance with more complex frameworks.
6.2.2. Stratagem-Integration Performance
6.3. Discussion
- Integration Capability: The system successfully integrates the Thirty-Six Stratagems with diverse analytical frameworks while maintaining high semantic accuracy.
- Scalability: Performance remains robust when adapting to new frameworks, with only modest degradation in accuracy.
- Efficiency: Significant reduction in integration time compared to manual approaches while maintaining expert-level accuracy.
- Performance slightly decreases with more complex frameworks;
- Expert validation remains valuable for novel framework combinations;
- System requires initial training data for optimal performance.
6.4. Further Considerations on Scalability
7. Related Work
7.1. Heuristic Decision-Making Foundations
7.2. Recommender Systems for Strategic Support
7.3. Strategy Tools and Platform Evolution
7.4. AI-Assisted Centaurian Systems
- Automated semantic scoring between framework parameters/heuristics;
- LLM-powered explanation generation [32];
- Abductive reasoning support for hypothesis exploration.
7.5. Previous Integration Attempts
8. Conclusions
8.1. Key Contributions
- Recommender System Architecture: A novel design that reframes strategic knowledge as “items” for recommendation, enabling context-aware and content-based matching between analytical parameters and decision heuristics.
- Semantic Integration Framework: A systematic methodology for connecting different frameworks (e.g., 6C, SWOT) with heuristic sets (e.g., the Thirty-Six Stratagems, OODA loops) via vector embeddings and semantic similarity scores.
- Computational Implementation: A flexible architecture combining deep NLP pipelines, heuristic mapping, and AI-assisted reporting. This includes a gamified simulation layer that allows users to explore strategic scenarios in an interactive manner.
- Generality Across Domains: Evidence from multiple case studies (e.g., hydrogen vs. electric automotive competition, the Commodore–Apple rivalry) illustrating that the approach can scale to diverse strategic contexts, from business to technology.
8.2. Practical Implications
- Enriched Decision Support: Merges quantitative analysis (framework-based) with qualitative insight (heuristics), fostering more balanced strategic decisions.
- Scalable Knowledge Transfer: Translates textual frameworks and heuristics into easily comparable vector forms, reducing the reliance on domain-specific expertise.
- Efficient Recommendations: Automates the matching process between high-level strategy parameters and heuristics, accelerating scenario analysis and cutting down on manual mapping.
- Human-Centric AI Integration: Constrains Large Language Models to explain and synthesize, thereby strengthening, rather than replacing, human strategists—a monotonic centaur approach.
8.3. Limitations and Future Work
8.4. Concluding Remarks
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A. Technical Details and Supplementary Information
Appendix A.1. Mathematical Foundations
Vector Space Calculations
- is the vector representation of text t;
- w represents individual words or phrases;
- is the embedding vector for word w;
- is the weight assigned to word w.
Appendix A.2. Semantic Analysis
Appendix A.2.1. Similarity Calculations
Appendix A.2.2. Kullback–Leibler Divergence Calculations
Appendix A.3. Algorithm Implementation
Selection Process Details
Appendix A.4. System Architecture Details
Appendix A.4.1. Workflow Definitions
Appendix A.4.2. Conversation Management
Appendix A.4.3. Component Interactions
Appendix A.4.4. LLM Integration
Appendix A.5. Validation Analysis
- The vectors representing parameters and heuristics generally have much higher dimensionality (e.g., hundreds of embedding components) rather than the 3D vectors shown here.
- Expert reviews may involve more participants (e.g., five or more) to ensure broader consensus, whereas we show a three-expert sample below for didactic clarity.
Appendix A.5.1. Perturbation Analysis
Appendix A.5.2. Cross-Validation Results
Model Comparison
Expert Ratings
- Expert 1: 0.55
- Expert 2: 0.60
- Expert 3: 0.58
Appendix A.5.3. Framework-Specific Implementation
Step 1: Text Preprocessing
Step 2: Vector Representation
Step 3: Framework-Specific Adjustments
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Framework | Processing Steps | Output Format |
---|---|---|
6C Model | 1. Parameter extraction 2. Vector embedding 3. Similarity scoring | Parameter vectors |
SWOT | 1. Category classification 2. Factor weighting 3. Cross-impact analysis | Category matrices |
Porter’s Five Forces | 1. Force identification 2. Intensity scoring 3. Relationship mapping | Force networks |
Parameter | Value (HydrogenEngines) | Value (ElectricEngines) |
---|---|---|
Defensive Strength | 3.25 | 4.0 |
Offensive Strength | 3.75 | 4.2 |
Relational Capacity | 3.60 | 4.5 |
Potential Energy | 4.00 | 4.8 |
Time Availability | 3.20 | 4.3 |
Context Fit | 3.80 | 4.6 |
6C Parameter | Value | Matched Stratagem | Score | Alignment Factors |
---|---|---|---|---|
Offensive Strength | 3.75 | Stratagem 16 (Illusory Ways Out) | 0.89 | Indirect positioning, Market differentiation |
Potential Energy | 4.00 | Stratagem 15 (Lure into Unfav. Env.) | 0.82 | Resource leverage, Niche focus |
Relational Capacity | 3.60 | Stratagem 24 (Use Allies’ Resources) | 0.93 | Partnerships, Infrastructure sharing |
Context Fit | 3.80 | Stratagem 1 (Acting Unnoticed) | 0.85 | Development timing, Market preparation |
Defensive Strength | 3.25 | Stratagem 3 (Act Through an Ally) | 0.78 | Indirect influence, Policy alignment |
Temporal Availability | 3.20 | Stratagem 17 (Cast a Brick) | 0.76 | Strategic timing, Readiness |
Stratagem | Score (EFF) | Key Alignment | Implementation Focus |
---|---|---|---|
16: Illusory Ways Out | 6.03 | Offensive (3.75) | Misleading EV sector |
15: Lure into Unfavorable Env. | 5.72 | Potential (4.0) | Exploit EV limitations |
24: Use Allies’ Resources | 5.68 | Relational (3.6) | Infrastructure partnerships |
3: Act Through an Ally | 5.56 | Offensive (3.75) | Indirect policy influence |
1: Acting Unnoticed | 5.41 | Context Fit (3.8) | Quiet tech development |
Parameter | Value (Commodore) | Value (Apple) |
---|---|---|
Offensive Strength | 3.5 | 4.0 |
Defensive Strength | 3.0 | 3.5 |
Relational Capacity | 2.8 | 3.8 |
Potential Energy | 3.0 | 4.2 |
Time Availability | 3.5 | 4.0 |
Context Fit | 2.9 | 4.0 |
6C Parameter | Value | Matched Stratagem | Score | Alignment Factors |
---|---|---|---|---|
Offensive Strength | 3.5 | Stratagem 18 (Capture Core) | 0.85 | Product innovation, Market positioning |
Potential Energy | 3.0 | Stratagem 11 (Connect Series) | 0.82 | Resource optimization, Development focus |
Time Availability | 3.5 | Stratagem 23 (Alliance Bldg) | 0.78 | Strategic timing, Partnership development |
Context Fit | 2.9 | Stratagem 8 (Adaptive Resp.) | 0.76 | Market adaptation, Consumer alignment |
Defensive Strength | 3.0 | Stratagem 13 (Strike Weakness) | 0.74 | Brand protection, Competitive response |
Relational Capacity | 2.8 | Stratagem 31 (Beauty Trap) | 0.71 | Channel management, UX focus |
Framework | Coverage | Consistency | Adaptability |
---|---|---|---|
6C Framework | 0.89 | 0.92 | 0.87 |
SWOT | 0.85 | 0.88 | 0.84 |
Porter’s Five Forces | 0.82 | 0.85 | 0.81 |
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Ghisellini, R.; Pareschi, R.; Pedroni, M.; Raggi, G.B. Recommending Actionable Strategies: A Semantic Approach to Integrating Analytical Frameworks with Decision Heuristics. Information 2025, 16, 192. https://doi.org/10.3390/info16030192
Ghisellini R, Pareschi R, Pedroni M, Raggi GB. Recommending Actionable Strategies: A Semantic Approach to Integrating Analytical Frameworks with Decision Heuristics. Information. 2025; 16(3):192. https://doi.org/10.3390/info16030192
Chicago/Turabian StyleGhisellini, Renato, Remo Pareschi, Marco Pedroni, and Giovanni Battista Raggi. 2025. "Recommending Actionable Strategies: A Semantic Approach to Integrating Analytical Frameworks with Decision Heuristics" Information 16, no. 3: 192. https://doi.org/10.3390/info16030192
APA StyleGhisellini, R., Pareschi, R., Pedroni, M., & Raggi, G. B. (2025). Recommending Actionable Strategies: A Semantic Approach to Integrating Analytical Frameworks with Decision Heuristics. Information, 16(3), 192. https://doi.org/10.3390/info16030192