An Urban Density-Based Runoff Simulation Framework to Envisage Flood Resilience of Cities
Abstract
:1. Introduction
1.1. Identifying the Urban Form-Based Proxies of Urban Density
1.2. Framework to Assess the Influence of Urban Density Changes on the Level of SR
Concepts
1.3. The Proposed Conceptual Framework
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Overall Methodology
2.2. Quantifying the Urban Form Density
2.3. Selection of a Software Tools for Modelling Surface Runoff
2.4. Selection of Cases Study Areas
3. Analysis and Results
3.1. Correlation Analysis
3.2. Decision Tree Analysis
3.3. Field Verification of the Simulated Results
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Identified Density-Based Proxies | [28] | [29] | [30] | [31] | [24] | [26] | [32] | [33] | [34] | [35] | [36] | [37] | [38] | [39] | [40] | [41] | [42] | [43] | [12] | [44] | [45] | [46] | [47] | [48] | [49] | [50] | [51] | [52] | [53] | [19] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Drainage Density | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | |||||||||||||||||||||
Population Density | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | ||||||||||||||||||||
Building Density | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | |||||||||||||||||||
Building Height | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Green/Open Space Ratio | * | * | * | * | * | * | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Road/Street Density | * | * | * | * | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Accessibility/Access Road Width | * | * | * | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
FAR | * | * | * | * | * | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Built Up/Ground Coverage Ratio (GCR) | * | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Impervious Surface Coverage/% | * | * | * | * | * | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Area of Building Footprints | * | * | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GSI | * | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Plot Size | * | * | * | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Land Use | * | * | * | * | * |
Dimension | Description with Candidate Variable |
---|---|
Density | This variable represents a ratio between the total amount of gross area and the area of a parcel upon which a building is located. Ex: Population density of the area, building density of the area, road density of the area, FAR (Floor Area Ratio). |
Diversity | This variable represents variation or diversity in horizontal or vertical space in a particular area. Ex: Building height, level of accessibility, land use mix, plot size, built up coverage |
Design | The variables or elements introduced that minimize or maximize impact. Ex: Green/open space ratio, access road width, impervious surface coverage, drainage density |
Density-Based Key Variable | Measuring Variable | Equation/Method of Measure | Source |
---|---|---|---|
Proxies of density | Population density (PD) | Census and statistics/Calculated by author | |
Building density | Building density in a particular land plot/area | JICA database | |
Road density | JICA database/Calculated by author | ||
FSI (FAR) | JICA database | ||
Proxies of diversity | Building height | Sum of floors in selected land plot/area | JICA data/Calculated by author |
Level of accessibility | CCi = (N − 1)/Σdij (Closeness centrality of road segment) | JICA database/Calculated by author | |
Land use mix (Mixed Use Index) | JICA database | ||
Plot size | Extracted as mean plot size from survey department data | JICA database/survey department data | |
Built-up coverage (BC) | Satellite data/Calculated by author | ||
Proxies of urban design | Open space ratio (OSR) | Calculated by author | |
Access road width | Extracted with google earth | OSM data/Google Earth measure | |
Impervious surface coverage | The % of impervious area of the catchment | Satellite data/Calculated by author | |
Drainage density | Drainage data of the area—WSDB and GN level/Calculated by author |
Selection Criteria | HEC-RAS | SWMM | PC- SWMM | Urban BEATS | MIKE Flood | City Drain | 3Di | 2D RRI | DS | DEM Based | RS | Lidar/GIS | ML |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Level of accuracy in local or watershed scale | √ | √ | √ | x | √ | x | √ | x | x | √ | x | √ | √ |
Data availability in Sri Lankan context | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | x | x | √ | √ | √ | x | √ |
Free and open-source application | √ | √ | x | x | x | x | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | x | √ |
Less calibration time | √ | √ | x | √ | √ | x | √ | x | √ | x | √ | √ | x |
Used in urban planning subject area | √ | √ | √ | x | √ | √ | x | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ |
Used for Urban flood modelling | x | √ | √ | x | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ | x | √ | √ | √ |
Parameter | High Density | Moderate Density | Low Density |
---|---|---|---|
Average street length | 35–400 m | 50–500 m | 60–700 m |
Major road width | 12–20 m | 12–15 m | 12–15 m |
Minor road width | 6–10 m | 6–10 m | 6–8 m |
Road curvature | 0°–90° | 0°–120° | 0°–170° |
Park coverage (green space) | 0–20% | 5–40% | 5–98% |
Buildings per lot | 6–30 | 6–34 | 1–36 |
Lot size (in sq m) | 250–2500 | 350–1400 | 600–11,000 |
Building front setback | 0–5 m | 0–35 m | 0–30 m |
Building rear setback | 0–5 m | 0–35 m | 0–30 m |
Building side setback | 0–5 m | 0–35 m | 0–30 m |
High Dense | Moderate Dense | Low Dense | |
---|---|---|---|
Location | Bambalapitiya—CD | Nagoda hospital junction—KD | Colombo 7—CD |
Land area | |||
Number of sub-catchments | 53 | 51 | 51 |
Population density (persons per km) | 257 | 15 | 5 |
Building density | 59.52% | 25.65% | 16.52% |
Open space | 9.52% | 62.47% | 78.21% |
Avg. number of floors | 7 | 2 | 2 |
Avg. plot size (m) | 758 Sqm | 900 Sqm | 2100 sqm |
Land use mix | 85.74% | 14.31% | 35.57% |
Stage | Type of Analysis | Purpose |
---|---|---|
1 | Correlation analysis | To identity the relationship between individual variables |
2 | Decision tree analysis | To measure the prediction probability and the level of accuracy of the pre-developed framework. |
3 | Regression analysis | Validation of the developed framework with real ground flood data (i.e., flood depth, inundation duration). |
Parameters | Model 1 Accuracy | Model 2 Accuracy | Model 3 Accuracy |
---|---|---|---|
Correctly classified instances | 98.7097% | 94.8387% | 93.5484% |
Incorrectly classified instances | 1.2903% | 5.1613% | 6.4516% |
Kappa statistic | 0.983 | 0.932 | 0.915 |
Mean absolute error | 0.0097 | 0.034 | 0.0457 |
Relative absolute error | 3.183% | 11.1693% | 14.9979% |
Root relative squared error | 3.183% | 33.4472% | 38.758% |
Total number of instances | 155 | 155 | 155 |
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Wijayawardana, N.; Abenayake, C.; Jayasinghe, A.; Dias, N. An Urban Density-Based Runoff Simulation Framework to Envisage Flood Resilience of Cities. Urban Sci. 2023, 7, 17. https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci7010017
Wijayawardana N, Abenayake C, Jayasinghe A, Dias N. An Urban Density-Based Runoff Simulation Framework to Envisage Flood Resilience of Cities. Urban Science. 2023; 7(1):17. https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci7010017
Chicago/Turabian StyleWijayawardana, Naduni, Chethika Abenayake, Amila Jayasinghe, and Nuwan Dias. 2023. "An Urban Density-Based Runoff Simulation Framework to Envisage Flood Resilience of Cities" Urban Science 7, no. 1: 17. https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci7010017