Fractal Analysis of Air Pollution Time Series in Urban Areas in Astana, Republic of Kazakhstan
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- To apply the method of air pollution time series fractal analysis for the Hurst exponent calculation and long-memory identification to further study the Hurst indicator behavior research in dynamics.
- To analyze the change in the level of pollution of harmful substances in Astana considering weather conditions and the location of potential sources of pollution by coal combustion products during the heating season.
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Literature Review
2.2. Experimental Methods and Area of Study
2.3. R/S Analysis Method
- If the Hurst index is a time series , then this may indicate the presence of long-term memory or persistent character in the series. In the context of environmental pollution, this may mean that high levels of pollution tend to remain at high levels for a long time or to recover again after periods of decrease. The tendency to change the level of pollution remains. If we talk about forecasting, the higher the value of the Hurst indicator, the more likely it is that the current trend will continue in the future . At the same time, the theoretical value of the threshold for identifying the boundary between random and persistent series is determined by the number of levels of the series , which are analyzed according to the formula [28,29]:
- 2.
- If the value of the Hurst index is , then the time series is random. In the context of time series of environmental pollution parameters, this may mean that the pollution level in a certain area is very unstable and is associated with emissions of pollutants abnormally in various concentrations, which is not regulated. On the other hand, it means a state of emergency or an accident, if before that the series had a clearly defined tendency to rise or fall. If , then the time series is ergodic. In the context of environmental pollution, this may mean that pollution tends to decrease temporarily after certain peaks or high values.
3. Results
3.1. Collection of Data
3.2. The Results of Fractal Analysis of Air Pollution Time Series in the City of Astan
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Indicator | Station | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
Number of observations | 1384 | 1038 | 1038 | 1038 |
Mean | 0.219487 | 0.225809 | 0.222071 | 0.225241 |
Std | 0.354448 | 0.421328 | 0.366821 | 0.417980 |
Min | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
Max | 3.400000 | 3.900000 | 3.400000 | 3.900000 |
Indicator | Station | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
Number of observations | 1280 | 1038 | 1038 | 1038 |
Mean | 0.227144 | 0.222413 | 0.226039 | 0.221515 |
Std | 0.216896 | 0.233680 | 0.234858 | 0.219416 |
Min | 0.090833 | 0.082500 | 0.085000 | 0.095833 |
Max | 1.084167 | 1.229167 | 1.141667 | 1.145833 |
Thermal Power Plant | Maximum Capacity, Gcal/Year | Distance to the Observation Station, km | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | ||
CHP 1 | 824 | 8.93 | 5.52 | 12.55 | 11.83 |
CHP 2 | 1140 | 8.01 | 6.8 | 10.71 | 9.84 |
CHP 2 WB | 795 | 8.04 | 6.71 | 10.81 | 9.94 |
CHP 3 | 440 | 10.15 | 6.81 | 13.73 | 12.99 |
South-west | 350 | 6.02 | 9.57 | 3.42 | 3.28 |
Turan | 340 | 9.14 | 6.82 | 11.9 | 11.75 |
Min distance | 6.02 | 5.52 | 3.42 | 3.28 |
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Biloshchytskyi, A.; Neftissov, A.; Kuchanskyi, O.; Andrashko, Y.; Biloshchytska, S.; Mukhatayev, A.; Kazambayev, I. Fractal Analysis of Air Pollution Time Series in Urban Areas in Astana, Republic of Kazakhstan. Urban Sci. 2024, 8, 131. https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci8030131
Biloshchytskyi A, Neftissov A, Kuchanskyi O, Andrashko Y, Biloshchytska S, Mukhatayev A, Kazambayev I. Fractal Analysis of Air Pollution Time Series in Urban Areas in Astana, Republic of Kazakhstan. Urban Science. 2024; 8(3):131. https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci8030131
Chicago/Turabian StyleBiloshchytskyi, Andrii, Alexandr Neftissov, Oleksandr Kuchanskyi, Yurii Andrashko, Svitlana Biloshchytska, Aidos Mukhatayev, and Ilyas Kazambayev. 2024. "Fractal Analysis of Air Pollution Time Series in Urban Areas in Astana, Republic of Kazakhstan" Urban Science 8, no. 3: 131. https://doi.org/10.3390/urbansci8030131