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Earthquake Early Warning System: Science and Technology, Challenges and Limitations

A special issue of Applied Sciences (ISSN 2076-3417). This special issue belongs to the section "Earth Sciences".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (30 November 2022) | Viewed by 1896

Special Issue Editors


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Guest Editor
Section of Geophysics-Geothermy, Department of Geology and Geoenvironment, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Zografou, 15784 Athens, Greece
Interests: geophysics; earth physics; seismology; applied geophysics
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

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Guest Editor
Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Metodologie per l'Analisi Ambientale, C.da S. Loja, Zona Ind.le, 85050 Tito Scalo (PZ), Italy
Interests: statistical seismology; earthquake physics; seismic sequences; real-time data analysis

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Guest Editor
Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis, National Research Council of Italy, C.da Santa Loja, I-85050 Tito, PZ, Italy
Interests: applied geophysics; electromagnetic sensing technologies; tomography; geohazards monitoring
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The increasing urbanization worldwide has led to the establishment of large metropolitan areas near major active faults (whether on land or offshore), which pose a serious seismic threat to the human population and to infrastructures. Today, an accurate earthquake forecast method appears to be far from operational. Consequently, attention has shifted to Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS) for reducing earthquake hazards, offering information for incoming destructive seismic waves in almost real time. Over the last two decades, due to rapid technological advances in the fields of signal processing and data transmission, effective techniques have been developed to analyze seismological data in almost real time. In this direction, real‐time seismology integrates fast and instantaneous data broadcast systems with automatic signal processing, providing reliable estimates of earthquake parameters (location and magnitude) in the first few seconds during its occurrence. Modern EEWSs could offer a few to tens of seconds of warning time for impending ground motions, allowing for mitigation measures in the short term. The information produced by the aforementioned systems can be used by civil protection authorities to minimize the damages and the losses (human and economic), as well as provide real-time loss estimation for emergency teams.

This Special Issue aims to highlight advances in the development of Earthquake Early Warning Systems technologies along with new innovative geophysical modeling and data analysis methods (AI and machine learning) that can be applied to EEWS operation. We encourage methodological contributions as well as key technological applications, which demonstrate how these EEWS technologies and/or methods help to improve our understanding of the physical processes governing earthquake. In addition, methods based on Geophysical and Satellite observations as could support EEWS are also welcome.

Prof. Dr. Filippos Vallianatos
Dr. Tony Alfredo Stabile
Dr. Vincenzo Lapenna
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Applied Sciences is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • earthquake early warning systems
  • earthquake detection and location
  • seismic sensors and networks for EEWS
  • AI and machine learning in EEWS
  • real time seismology
  • seismic hazard mitigation
  • seismic alert—real-time shake alerts
  • earthquake source modeling for EEWS
  • physics of the EEWS scaling laws
  • algorithms for EEWS
  • new geophysical and satellite methodologies for EEWS

Published Papers (1 paper)

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Research

11 pages, 5374 KiB  
Article
An Earthquake Early Warning Method Based on Bayesian Inference
by Jingsong Yang, Fulin He, Zhitao Li and Yinzhe Zhang
Appl. Sci. 2022, 12(24), 12849; https://doi.org/10.3390/app122412849 - 14 Dec 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1342
Abstract
Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems can give people warnings before damaging ground motions reach their site and can reduce earthquake-related losses. It has been shown that Bayesian reference can be used to estimate earthquake magnitude, location, and the distribution of peak ground motion [...] Read more.
Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems can give people warnings before damaging ground motions reach their site and can reduce earthquake-related losses. It has been shown that Bayesian reference can be used to estimate earthquake magnitude, location, and the distribution of peak ground motion using observed ground-motion amplitudes, predefined prior information, and appropriate attenuation relationships. In this article, we describe a Bayesian approach to earthquake early warning (EEW) systems for the estimation of magnitude (M) and peak ground-motion velocity (PGV) using the Gutenberg–Richter relation as a priori probability derived from statistical historical earthquake information from the Japanese KiK-net. Moreover, using the magnitude Mj = 4.5 and PGV = 0.4 cm/s as the warning threshold, an earthquake hazard discrimination model was established. Following this, the proposed approach was compared with the traditional fitting method to analyze the earthquake hazard discrimination using an Mj = 4.3 earthquake in the Mt. Fuji area and an Mj = 5.5 earthquake in the Ibaraki area of Japan as examples. The results are as follows: (1) The probabilistic algorithm founded on the predictive model of the magnitude from the average period (τc) and PGV from the displacement amplitude (Pd) from the initial 3 s of the P wave is able to provide a fast and accurate estimation of the final magnitude and location. (2) The Bayesian inference approach for the earthquake hazard discrimination model has a 2.94% miss rate and a 5.88% false alarm rate, which is lower than that of the traditional fitting method, thus increasing the accuracy and reliability of earthquake hazard estimation. Full article
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