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Atmospheric Dispersion Modeling of Hazardous Releases from Accident, Terrorist Attack...
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Atmospheric Dispersion Modeling of Hazardous Releases from Accident, Terrorist Attack or Natural Disaster

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Atmospheric Techniques, Instruments, and Modeling".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 December 2020) | Viewed by 13155

Special Issue Editor

Dr. Kathrin Baumann-Stanzer

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, ZAMG, Austria
Interests: air pollution modeling; emergency response systems; local scale to long range transport in the atmosphere; boundary layer meteorology; ground-based remote sensing

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

In the case of an emergency due to a hazardous release, decision makers and first responders urgently need fast but reliable information on the extent of the expected damages and health effects. Today’s threat scenarios range from natural disasters as volcanic eruptions causing long-range transport of material to accidental or intentional CBRN releases with local but serious consequences, especially in densely populated areas. Model developers and users of atmospheric emergency response modeling systems face several challenges: Source terms are usually highly uncertain due to little information as well as complex release conditions (e.g., chemical mixtures, dense gas, pool evaporation, explosion). For real-time applications, model results should be provided as fast as possible. State-of-the-art emergency response model systems are required to take advantage of scientific progress as well as growing computer capabilities. Nevertheless, comprehensive model ouput for stakeholders is demanded. Measurements, e.g., gas sensors on unmanned aerial vehicles are increasingly used in combination with backward modeling or source term correction techniques to improve the assessment of the situation. 

This Special Issue offers an opportunity for those involved in modeling hazardous gas releases across a range of scales—from local releases in urban areas or complex terrain to volcanic eruptions or nuclear explosions leading to long-range transport of hazardous material—to present their original scientific work in this dedicated volume. Papers presenting approaches to cope with uncertainty in the context of emergency response and as risk analyses, sensitivity studies, model evaluation, and case studies from real events are highly welcome.

Dr. Kathrin Baumann-Stanzer
Guest Editor

Manuscript Submission Information

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Keywords

  • chemical facilities
  • terrorism
  • natural disaster
  • hazardous material

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Published Papers (5 papers)

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Research

17 pages, 4078 KiB  
Article
The Environmental Effects of the April 2020 Wildfires and the Cs-137 Re-Suspension in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone: A Multi-Hazard Threat
by Rocío Baró, Christian Maurer, Jerome Brioude, Delia Arnold and Marcus Hirtl
Atmosphere 2021, 12(4), 467; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12040467 - 8 Apr 2021
Cited by 7 | Viewed by 2927
Abstract
This paper demonstrates the environmental impacts of the wildfires occurring at the beginning of April 2020 in and around the highly contaminated Chernobyl Exclusion Zone (CEZ). Due to the critical fire location, concerns arose about secondary radioactive contamination potentially spreading over Europe. The [...] Read more.
This paper demonstrates the environmental impacts of the wildfires occurring at the beginning of April 2020 in and around the highly contaminated Chernobyl Exclusion Zone (CEZ). Due to the critical fire location, concerns arose about secondary radioactive contamination potentially spreading over Europe. The impact of the fire was assessed through the evaluation of fire plume dispersion and re-suspension of the radionuclide Cs-137, whereas, to assess the smoke plume effect, a WRF-Chem simulation was performed and compared to Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) satellite columns. The results show agreement of the simulated black carbon and carbon monoxide plumes with the plumes as observed by TROPOMI, where pollutants were also transported to Belarus. From an air quality and health perspective, the wildfires caused extremely bad air quality over Kiev, where the WRF-Chem model simulated mean values of PM2.5 up to 300 µg/m3 (during the first fire outbreak) over CEZ. The re-suspension of Cs-137 was assessed by a Bayesian inverse modelling approach using FLEXPART as the atmospheric transport model and Ukraine observations, yielding a total release of 600 ± 200 GBq. The increase in both smoke and Cs-137 emissions was only well correlated on the 9 April, likely related to a shift of the focus area of the fires. From a radiological point of view even the highest Cs-137 values (average measured or modelled air concentrations and modelled deposition) at the measurement site closest to the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, i.e., Kiev, posed no health risk. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Atmospheric Dispersion Modeling of Hazardous Releases from Accident, Terrorist Attack or Natural Disaster)
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16 pages, 27007 KiB  
Article
The ESTE Decision Support System for Nuclear and Radiological Emergencies: Atmospheric Dispersion Models
by Ľudovít Lipták, Eva Fojcíková, Monika Krpelanová, Viera Fabová and Peter Čarný
Atmosphere 2021, 12(2), 204; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12020204 - 3 Feb 2021
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2563
Abstract
The ESTE system is running in nuclear crisis centers at various levels of emergency preparedness and response in Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Austria, Bulgaria, and Iran (at the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)). ESTE is a [...] Read more.
The ESTE system is running in nuclear crisis centers at various levels of emergency preparedness and response in Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Austria, Bulgaria, and Iran (at the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)). ESTE is a decision-support system that runs 24/7 and serves the crisis staff to propose actions to protect inhabitants against radiation in case of a nuclear accident. ESTE is also applicable as a decision-support system in case of a malicious act with a radioactive dispersal device in an urban or industrial environment. The dispersion models implemented in ESTE are the Lagrangian particle model (LPM) and the Puff trajectory model (PTM). We describe model approaches as implemented in ESTE. The PTM is applied in ESTE for the dispersion calculation near the point of release, up to 100 km from the point of a nuclear accident. The LPM for general atmospheric transport is applied for short-range, meso-scale and large-scale dispersion, up to dispersion on the global scale. Additionally, a specific micro-scale implementation of the LPM is applied for urban scale dispersion modeling. The dispersion models of ESTE are joined with radiological-consequences models to calculate a complete spectrum of radiological parameters—effective doses, committed doses, and dose rates by various irradiation pathways and by various radionuclides. Finally, radiation protective measures, like sheltering, iodine prophylaxis, or evacuation, evaluated on the base of predicted radiological impacts, are proposed. The dispersion and radiological models of the state-of-the-art ESTE systems are described. The results of specific analyses, like the number of particles applied, the initial spatial distribution of the source, and the height of the bottom reference layer, are presented and discussed. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Atmospheric Dispersion Modeling of Hazardous Releases from Accident, Terrorist Attack or Natural Disaster)
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16 pages, 3878 KiB  
Article
Modelling Exposure from Airborne Hazardous Short-Duration Releases in Urban Environments
by John G. Bartzis, George C. Efthimiou and Spyros Andronopoulos
Atmosphere 2021, 12(2), 130; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12020130 - 20 Jan 2021
Cited by 6 | Viewed by 1973
Abstract
When considering accidental or/and deliberate releases of airborne hazardous substances the release duration is often short and in most cases not precisely known. The downstream exposure in those cases is stochastic due to ambient turbulence and strongly dependent on the release duration. Depending [...] Read more.
When considering accidental or/and deliberate releases of airborne hazardous substances the release duration is often short and in most cases not precisely known. The downstream exposure in those cases is stochastic due to ambient turbulence and strongly dependent on the release duration. Depending on the adopted modelling approach, a relatively large number of dispersion simulations may be required to assess exposure and its statistical behaviour. The present study introduces a novel approach aiming to replace the large number of the abovementioned simulation scenarios by only one simulation of a corresponding continuous release scenario and to derive the exposure-related quantities for each finite-duration release scenario by simple relationships. The present analysis was concentrated on dosages and peak concentrations as the primary parameters of concern for human health. The experimental and theoretical analysis supports the hypothesis that the dosage statistics for short releases can be correlated with the corresponding continuous release concentration statistics. The analysis shows also that the peak concentration statistics for short-duration releases in terms of ensemble average and standard deviation are well correlated with the corresponding dosage statistics. However, for more reliable quantification of the associated correlation coefficients further experimental and theoretical research is needed. The probability/cumulative density function for dosage and peak concentration can be approximated by the beta function proposed in an earlier work by the authors for continuous releases. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Atmospheric Dispersion Modeling of Hazardous Releases from Accident, Terrorist Attack or Natural Disaster)
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13 pages, 2610 KiB  
Article
Characteristics of Toxic Gas Leakages with Change in Duration
by Hana Chaloupecká, Zuzana Kluková, Radka Kellnerová and Zbyněk Jaňour
Atmosphere 2021, 12(1), 88; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12010088 - 8 Jan 2021
Viewed by 2151
Abstract
One of the emergencies rescue crews have to face is toxic gas leakages. The characteristics of the gas leakages differ with regard to their leakage duration. Long-term releases have plume-like behaviors that can be described by utilizing mean concentrations at individual exposed locations. [...] Read more.
One of the emergencies rescue crews have to face is toxic gas leakages. The characteristics of the gas leakages differ with regard to their leakage duration. Long-term releases have plume-like behaviors that can be described by utilizing mean concentrations at individual exposed locations. In contrast, ensemble statistics of individual cloud characteristics are needed for short-term releases with puff-like behaviors to ensure fully aware risk assessment. The reason is that the time evolution of the concentration of short-term gas releases can differ wildly under the same mean ambient and leakage conditions. The duration from which the release can be classified as plume-like can be found only by studying the releases of different durations, which is the main aim of this paper. To investigate gas releases of different durations, wind tunnel experiments of gas releases in an idealized urban area were conducted. The results present a new method by which concentration signals of releases can be divided into three cloud phases: the arrival, the central and the departure cloud phase. The characteristics (e.g., lengths, mean concentrations) of the individual cloud phases are explored. The results indicate that the finite-duration releases for which the central cloud phase exists have the plume-like behavior for this cloud part. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Atmospheric Dispersion Modeling of Hazardous Releases from Accident, Terrorist Attack or Natural Disaster)
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20 pages, 1618 KiB  
Article
From Containing the Atom to Mitigating Residual Risk: The German Imaginary of Nuclear Emergency Preparedness
by Tudor B. Ionescu
Atmosphere 2020, 11(12), 1302; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11121302 - 30 Nov 2020
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2511
Abstract
Grounded in a social scientific research approach, the present case study traces the shift in the German nuclear regulatory culture from prevention to preparedness, the latter of which builds upon decision support systems for nuclear emergency management. These systems integrate atmospheric dispersion models [...] Read more.
Grounded in a social scientific research approach, the present case study traces the shift in the German nuclear regulatory culture from prevention to preparedness, the latter of which builds upon decision support systems for nuclear emergency management. These systems integrate atmospheric dispersion models for tracing radioactive materials released accidentally from nuclear facilities. For atmospheric dispersion modelers and emergency managers, this article provides a critical historical perspective on the practical, epistemic, and organizational issues surrounding the use of decision support systems for nuclear emergency management. This perspective suggests that atmospheric dispersion models are embedded within an entire assemblage of institutions, technologies, and practices of preparedness, which are challenged by the uniqueness of each nuclear accident. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Atmospheric Dispersion Modeling of Hazardous Releases from Accident, Terrorist Attack or Natural Disaster)
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