Numerical Ensemble Weather Prediction

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Meteorology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (1 May 2021) | Viewed by 5345

Special Issue Editors

Environmental Modeling Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), NWS/NOAA, College Park, MD 20740, USA
Interests: atmospheric predictability and ensemble numerical weather prediction; model forecast calibration using statistical and dynamical approaches; forecast verification; anomaly-based weather analysis and forecasting technique; incorporation of forecast uncertainty into forecast products and decision making tools, and precipitation analysis

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Guest Editor
Met Office, Exeter, UK
Interests: ensemble forecasting; post-processing and verification

Special Issue Information

It is important to quantify uncertainty in a weather forecast due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere and numerical models. Therefore, ensemble prediction has become a standard practice at major numerical weather prediction centers in the world. To review the most recent developments in this area, this Special Issue will focus on ensemble prediction. The topics include the following aspects:

(1) ensemble prediction systems for all applications (weather, climate, hydrology, ocean and air pollutions, etc.);

(2) ensemble perturbation techniques (initial conditions, model physics and dynamics, etc.) for all spatial scales (global, regional and storm-scale);

(3) ensemble post-processing (1st and 2nd moments);

(4) ensemble verification;

(5) ensemble products (information extraction);

(6) ensemble-based predictability study and forecast error estimation; 

(7) application of forecast uncertainty information in user decision-making.

Dr. Jun Du
Dr. Ken Mylne
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Atmosphere is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • ensemble prediction systems
  • ensemble post-processing
  • ensemble verification
  • ensemble products
  • predictability study
  • forecast uncertainty

Published Papers (1 paper)

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Research

33 pages, 8957 KiB  
Article
A Review of Operational Ensemble Forecasting Efforts in the United States Air Force
by Evan L. Kuchera, Scott A. Rentschler, Glenn A. Creighton and Steven A. Rugg
Atmosphere 2021, 12(6), 677; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12060677 - 25 May 2021
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 4494
Abstract
United States Air Force (USAF) operations are greatly influenced and impacted by environmental conditions. Since 2004, USAF has researched, developed, operationalized, and refined numerical weather prediction ensembles to provide improved environmental information for mission success and safety. This article reviews how and why [...] Read more.
United States Air Force (USAF) operations are greatly influenced and impacted by environmental conditions. Since 2004, USAF has researched, developed, operationalized, and refined numerical weather prediction ensembles to provide improved environmental information for mission success and safety. This article reviews how and why USAF capabilities evolved in the context of USAF requirements and limitations. The convergence of time-lagged convection-allowing ensembles with inline diagnostics, algorithms to estimate the sub-grid scale uncertainty of critical forecasting variables, and the distillation of large quantities of ensemble information into decision-relevant products has led to the acceptance of probabilistic environmental forecast information and widespread reliance on ensembles in USAF operations worldwide. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Numerical Ensemble Weather Prediction)
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