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Climate Variability and Renewable Energy: Impact on Resources, Demand and Transition Road

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A special issue of Energies (ISSN 1996-1073). This special issue belongs to the section "A3: Wind, Wave and Tidal Energy".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (10 August 2022) | Viewed by 12266
Please submit your paper and select the Journal "Energies" and the Special Issue "Climate Variability and Renewable Energy: Impact on Resources, Demand and Transition Road" via: https://susy.mdpi.com/user/manuscripts/upload?journal=energies. Please contact the journal editor Adele Min ([email protected]) before submitting.

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Special Issue Editors

Dr. Elena García-Bustamante

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor

Department of Energy, Wind Energy Section, CIEMAT, 28040 Madrid, Spain
Interests: climate variability; model-data comparison; climate modeling; wind energy resource assessment; wind power; statistical and dynamical downscaling; paleoclimatology

Dr. Cristobal Gallego-Castillo

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor

Department of Aircraft and Space Vehicles, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain
Interests: wind energy; wind power forecasting; time series modeling; energy transition; climate change; electricity markets

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Climate change mitigation requires a sheer transition towards renewable energies. The inherent intermittency of these sources will make societies more sensitive to climate variability. In addition, climate change has already affected and is expected to considerably impact climate variability, increasing uncertainty regarding decision-making processes and climate change adaptation policies concerning renewable energy deployment.

This Special Issue encompasses a variety of studies and works that explore the connection between climate variability and renewable energies in the context of climate change. A major interest of this Special Issue is to examine what would be the role of renewable energies in the present and future scenarios of energy transition toward clean and sustainable sources of energy under the constraints imposed by climate change.

Contributions dealing with the following topics are welcome:

Variations in the energy demand driven by or related to observed or expected changes in the climate system;
Potential impacts of the observed or expected climate change on the main drivers or sources of renewable energies at regional and local scales;
Influence of changes in the intensity and occurrence of extreme weather events on renewable energy production;
Impact of climate variability on required local or regional climate change adaptation measurements;
Potential economical and societal repercussions of an increased use of renewable energy resources.

Works that deal with these types of issue over those regions and countries with high levels of poverty and vulnerability to climate change are particularly encouraged.

Dr. Elena García-Bustamante
Dr. Cristobal Gallego-Castillo
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

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Keywords

climate variability
local/regional climate change projections
extreme events
renewable energy
energy demand
energy transition
vulnerability
adaptation and mitigation

Published Papers (5 papers)

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Research

32 pages, 6643 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Expected Recurrence of Extreme Winds in Northwestern Sahara and Associated Uncertainties

by Elena García Bustamante, J. Fidel González Rouco, Jorge Navarro, Etor E. Lucio Eceiza and Cristina Rojas Labanda

Energies 2021, 14(21), 6913; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14216913 - 21 Oct 2021

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1229

Abstract

Estimating the probability of the occurrence of hazardous winds is crucial for their impact in human activities; however, this is inherently affected by the shortage of observations. This becomes critical in poorly sampled regions, such as the northwestern Sahara, where this work is focused. The selection of any single methodological variant contributes with additional uncertainty. To gain robustness in the estimates, we expand the uncertainty space by applying a large body of methodologies. The methodological uncertainty is constrained afterward by keeping only the reliable experiments. In doing so, we considerably narrow the uncertainty associated with the wind return levels. The analysis suggest that not necessarily all methodologies are equally robust. The highest 10-min speed (wind gust) for a return period of 50 years is about 45 ms

^{- 1}

(56 ms

^{- 1}

). The intensity of the expected extreme winds is closely related to orography. The study is based on wind and wind gust observations that were collected and quality controlled for the specific purposes herein. We also make use of a 12-year high-resolution regional simulation to provide simulation-based wind return level maps that endorse the observation-based results. Such an exhaustive methodological sensitivity analysis with a long high-resolution simulation over this region was lacking in the literature. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Variability and Renewable Energy: Impact on Resources, Demand and Transition Road)

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16 pages, 4686 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Identification of Extreme Wind Events Using a Weather Type Classification

by António Couto, Paula Costa and Teresa Simões

Energies 2021, 14(13), 3944; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14133944 - 1 Jul 2021

Cited by 9 | Viewed by 2109

Abstract

The identification of extreme wind events and their driving forces are crucial to better integrating wind generation into the power system. Recent work related the occurrence of extreme wind events with some weather circulation patterns, enabling the identification of (i) wind power ramps and (ii) low-generation events as well as their intrinsic features, such as the intensity and time duration. Using Portugal as a case study, this work focuses on the application of a weather classification-type methodology to link the weather conditions with wind power generation, namely, the different types of extreme events. A long-term period is used to assess and characterize the changes in the occurrence of extreme weather events and corresponding intensity on wind power production. High variability is expected under cyclonic regimes, whereas low-generation events are most common in anticyclonic regimes. The results of the work provide significant insights regarding wind power production in Portugal, enabling an increase in its predictability. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Variability and Renewable Energy: Impact on Resources, Demand and Transition Road)

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23 pages, 1280 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Addressing the Effects of Climate Change on Modeling Future Hydroelectric Energy Production in Chile

by Esteban Gil, Yerel Morales and Tomás Ochoa

Energies 2021, 14(1), 241; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14010241 - 5 Jan 2021

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 3153

Abstract

Despite the growing scientific evidence, the electricity market models used in Chile do not consider the effects of climate change on hydroelectric energy production. Based on a statistical analysis of the historical hydro-energy inflow dataset and a revision of the scientific literature, we suggest a set of technical and statistical criteria to determine an alternative representation of the hydro-energy uncertainty in the Chilean electricity market. Based on these criteria, we then propose an alternative range of historical hydrological data, which is built by shedding the first 35 years of the historical dataset (out of 59 years) and using only a reduced subset of 24 years. Additionally, we propose to capture the potential impacts of even more prolonged droughts on the Chilean electricity system by repeating the last nine years of data at the end of the 24 year-long series. The resulting extended subset of 33 hydro-years is approximately 10% drier on average than the original dataset of 59 years. The proposed range of hydrological data captures some of the anticipated effects of climate change on Chilean hydro-uncertainty reported in the literature and also preserves most of the intra-annual and spatial diversity of the original data. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Variability and Renewable Energy: Impact on Resources, Demand and Transition Road)

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17 pages, 1084 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Improving Energy Transition Analysis Tool through Hydropower Statistical Modelling

by Cristobal Gallego-Castillo and Marta Victoria

Energies 2021, 14(1), 98; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14010098 - 27 Dec 2020

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2375

Abstract

Reservoir and pumped hydro storage facilities represent one of the best options for providing flexibility at low marginal cost and very low life cycle carbon emissions. However, hydropower generation is subject to physical, environmental and regulatory constraints, which introduce complexity in the modelling of hydropower in the context of transition energy analysis. In this article, a probabilistic model for hydropower generation is developed in order to improve an hourly-resolved tool for transition path analysis presented in previous research. The model is based on time series analysis, which exploits the fact that the different constraints affecting hydropower generation were met in the past. The upgraded version of the transition path analysis tool shows a decrease in the hydropower flexibility as compared with previous published results, providing a better picture of the benefits and drawbacks associated with a specific transition path under analysis, for example in terms of assessing the probability of unserved energy. The upgraded version of the tool was employed to analyse the Spanish National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP), finding consistence between proposals associated with the power system and related CO₂ reduction and share of renewable electricity targets. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Variability and Renewable Energy: Impact on Resources, Demand and Transition Road)

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23 pages, 5518 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Regional Study of Changes in Wind Power in the Indian Shelf Seas over the Last 40 Years

by V. Sanil Kumar, Aswathy B. Asok, Jesbin George and M. M. Amrutha

Energies 2020, 13(9), 2295; https://doi.org/10.3390/en13092295 - 6 May 2020

Cited by 14 | Viewed by 2437

Abstract

Wind power variations at two heights (the surface level and turbine hub level) were investigated at 20 locations in the shelf seas of India using hourly fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalyses of the global climate (ERA5) data covering the last 40 years (1979 to 2018). The interannual and seasonal variability in wind power was studied. The wind power density, the exceedance probability of power density and the exploitable wind resources were examined. In the Indian shelf seas, the annual mean wind power density at 10 m above mean sea level varies from 82 to 353 W/m². Wind power density at 110.8 m is 20% to 40% higher than at 10 m above mean sea level. The study shows that the shelf seas have an abundance of wind power, with wind speeds over 3 m/s during 90% of the time at locations 1 to 3, 12 and 13, with a high occurrence of exploitable wind energy above 0.7 × 10³ kWh/m². Among the locations studied, the most power-rich area was location 12, where during ~62% of the time power was greater than 200 W/m². A significant change (~10–35%) in inter-annual wind power density was detected at a few locations, and these variations were associated with Indian summer monsoon and El Niño–Southern Oscillation events. Trend analysis suggests a decreasing trend in the annual mean wind power density for most of the locations in the Indian shelf seas over the last 40 years. Wind power has considerable directional distribution, and at different locations the annual wind power from the dominant direction is 10% to 79% of the total available power from all directions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Variability and Renewable Energy: Impact on Resources, Demand and Transition Road)

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