Political Risk Management in Financial Markets

A special issue of Journal of Risk and Financial Management (ISSN 1911-8074). This special issue belongs to the section "Financial Markets".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 31 December 2024 | Viewed by 1557

Special Issue Editor


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Guest Editor
Department of Political Science, University of California, San Diego Social Sciences Building 370, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA
Interests: comparative politics; positive political theory; political economy

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The primary focus of this Special Issue, "Political Risk Management in Financial Markets", in the Journal of Risk and Financial Management (JFRM), is on theoretical and empirical studies that will enrich the literature on political risk management within financial markets. The aim of this Special Issue is to contribute to the advances in the theoretical and empirical understanding of how political factors (e.g. elections, policy uncertainty, and regulation) influence asset prices. We seek papers that provide valuable insights and practical implications for stakeholders, policymakers, and the public, fostering a deeper comprehension of the complexities associated with political risk in financial markets.

We welcome submissions from various disciplines, emphasizing high-quality analytical, theoretical, and empirical contributions in the following major areas: political risk assessment and measurement, the impact of political events on financial markets, strategies for managing political risk, interactions between political and economic factors, government policies and asset prices, international political risk and cross-border investments, and the role of political institutions in shaping financial markets. Authors are encouraged to explore innovative perspectives and methodologies that enhance our understanding of the intricate dynamics between politics and financial markets.

Prof. Dr. Sebastian M. Saiegh
Guest Editor

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Keywords

  • political risk
  • asset pricing
  • financial markets
  • policy uncertainty

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Published Papers (2 papers)

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Research

17 pages, 935 KiB  
Article
Analyzing the Selective Stock Price Index Using Fractionally Integrated and Heteroskedastic Models
by Javier E. Contreras-Reyes, Joaquín E. Zavala and Byron J. Idrovo-Aguirre
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2024, 17(9), 401; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17090401 - 7 Sep 2024
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 598
Abstract
Stock market indices are important tools to measure and compare stock market performance. The Selective Stock Price (SSP) index reflects fluctuations in a set value of financial instruments of Santiago de Chile’s stock exchange. Stock indices also reflect volatility linked to high uncertainty [...] Read more.
Stock market indices are important tools to measure and compare stock market performance. The Selective Stock Price (SSP) index reflects fluctuations in a set value of financial instruments of Santiago de Chile’s stock exchange. Stock indices also reflect volatility linked to high uncertainty or potential investment risk. However, economic shocks are altering volatility. Evidence of long memory in SSP time series also exists, which implies long-term persistence. In this paper, we studied the volatility of SSP time series from January 2010 to September 2023 using fractionally heteroskedastic models. We considered the Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) process with Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) innovations—the ARFIMA-GARCH model—for SSP log returns, and the fractionally integrated GARCH, or FIGARCH model, was compared with a classical GARCH one. The results show that the ARFIMA-GARCH model performs best in terms of volatility fit and predictive quality. This model allows us to obtain a better understanding of the observed volatility and its behavior, which contributes to more effective investment risk management in the stock market. Moreover, the proposed model detects the influence volatility increments of the SSP index linked to external factors that impact the economic outlook, such as China’s economic slowdown in 2012 and the subprime crisis in 2008. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Political Risk Management in Financial Markets)
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15 pages, 797 KiB  
Article
The Real-Time Impact of Political Risk on Market Valuations: Evidence from Peru
by Juan Pablo Micozzi, Patricio Navia, Pablo Pinto and Sebastian Saiegh
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2024, 17(7), 298; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17070298 - 13 Jul 2024
Viewed by 587
Abstract
This study examines the impact of political risk on financial markets by leveraging high-frequency (minute-by-minute) price data and precise event timestamps from media outlets’ Twitter feeds during Pedro Castillo’s failed coup attempt in Peru. Unlike previous research that relies on low-frequency data and [...] Read more.
This study examines the impact of political risk on financial markets by leveraging high-frequency (minute-by-minute) price data and precise event timestamps from media outlets’ Twitter feeds during Pedro Castillo’s failed coup attempt in Peru. Unlike previous research that relies on low-frequency data and protracted political changes, our analysis demonstrates that daily closing prices may misleadingly suggest negligible impact. In contrast, high-frequency data reveal that markets promptly and accurately incorporated news of the coup attempt and, in turn, its failure into asset prices. Our analysis shows that breakdowns in democratic governance negatively affect asset prices, while the restoration of the rule of law, in the form Congressional checks on the Executive branch, boosts them. Moreover, our analyses suggest that domestic companies and sectors with less mobile assets are more vulnerable to these political risks. Our findings underscore the crucial role of high-frequency data in accurately capturing how institutions and political risk affects equity markets. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Political Risk Management in Financial Markets)
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