Statistical Models and Their Applications

A special issue of Mathematics (ISSN 2227-7390). This special issue belongs to the section "D1: Probability and Statistics".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 28 February 2026 | Viewed by 906

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Guest Editor
Department of Statistics, Umeå School of Business, Economics and Statistics, Umeå University, 90781 Umeå, Sweden
Interests: causal inference; probabilistic modeling and reasoning; artificial intelligence; machine learning; medical statistics
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Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

In today's information-rich landscape—characterized by a diverse range of digital records, high-throughput and complex experimentation, passive data collection, and real-time decision systems—the demand for novel and robust statistical modeling methodologies has never been greater. Traditional statistical modeling frameworks are being stretched to their limits by the complexity and scale of modern data, necessitating the development of novel and improved modeling frameworks that can deliver efficient, effective, and scientifically rigorous inferences. The elimination of the so-called replication crisis through effective statistical inference methodologies is a major concern. Therefore, this Special Issue seeks to bring together cutting-edge research that advances the theory of statistical modeling and explores innovative applications across a wide range of scientific and technological domains.

The Special Issue invites original research and review articles that advance the theory and practice of statistical modeling and its applications. We seek contributions that address the urgent need for innovative statistical models tailored to the evolving landscape of scientific inquiry, as well as new applications of established modeling frameworks in emerging domains. We aim to showcase cutting-edge research that achieves the following:

  • Develops novel statistical models tailored to modern data structures and scientific requirements;
  • Extends traditional modeling frameworks to emerging application domains;
  • Addresses methodological gaps in current statistical practice, and shows ways of integrating statistical modeling with domain expertise;
  • Provides robust theoretical foundations for contemporary statistical inference, computational tools, and statistical software;
  • Demonstrates practical impact through real-world applications and the communication and visualization of statistical results;
  • Addresses the current replication crisis in science through effective statistical inference methodologies.

Topics of Interests:

We invite submissions covering, but not limited to, the following core statistical modeling approaches:

  • Causal Graphical Models: Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), also known as Bayesian networks, chain graph models, causal discovery algorithms, and general causal inference;
  • Time Series and Temporal Models: Dynamic models, state space frameworks, functional time series, and non-stationary processes;
  • Probabilistic Models: Bayesian models, probabilistic reasoning, and approaches of uncertainty quantification;
  • Survival Analysis Models: Competing risks and modeling of longitudinal data and time-to-event survival data;
  • Prediction and Clustering and Classification Methods/Models: State-of-the-Art techniques for supervised and unsupervised learning, with emphasis on interpretability and scalability, machine learning models and their statistical interpretations, ensemble methods, deep learning models and their statistical foundations, and interpretable AI;
  • Foundations of Statistical Inference: Replication crisis in science, frequentist hypothesis testing and associated p-value problems, Bayesian hypothesis testing, and decision theoretic approaches;
  • Reinventing Traditional Models: Novel applications or extensions of classic statistical models to contemporary problems in science, including those in machine learning, big data analytics, and real-time decision-making.

Dr. Priyantha Wijayatunga
Guest Editor

Manuscript Submission Information

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Keywords

  • causal inference
  • probabilistic
  • bayesian
  • prediction
  • classification and regression
  • statistical learning
  • temporal
  • survival

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Published Papers (2 papers)

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Research

30 pages, 8059 KB  
Article
A New Discrete Model of Lindley Families: Theory, Inference, and Real-World Reliability Analysis
by Refah Alotaibi and Ahmed Elshahhat
Mathematics 2026, 14(3), 397; https://doi.org/10.3390/math14030397 - 23 Jan 2026
Viewed by 232
Abstract
Recent developments in discrete probability models play a crucial role in reliability and survival analysis when lifetimes are recorded as counts. Motivated by this need, we introduce the discrete ZLindley (DZL) distribution, a novel discretization of the continuous ZL law. Constructed using a [...] Read more.
Recent developments in discrete probability models play a crucial role in reliability and survival analysis when lifetimes are recorded as counts. Motivated by this need, we introduce the discrete ZLindley (DZL) distribution, a novel discretization of the continuous ZL law. Constructed using a survival-function approach, the DZL retains the analytical tractability of its continuous parent while simultaneously exhibiting a monotonically decreasing probability mass function and a strictly increasing hazard rate—properties that are rarely achieved together in existing discrete models. We derive key statistical properties of the proposed distribution, including moments, quantiles, order statistics, and reliability indices such as stress–strength reliability and the mean residual life. These results demonstrate the DZL’s flexibility in modeling skewness, over-dispersion, and heavy-tailed behavior. For statistical inference, we develop maximum likelihood and symmetric Bayesian estimation procedures under censored sampling schemes, supported by asymptotic approximations, bootstrap methods, and Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Monte Carlo simulation studies confirm the robustness and efficiency of the Bayesian estimators, particularly under informative prior specifications. The practical applicability of the DZL is illustrated using two real datasets: failure times (in hours) of 18 electronic systems and remission durations (in weeks) of 20 leukemia patients. In both cases, the DZL provides substantially better fits than nine established discrete distributions. By combining structural simplicity, inferential flexibility, and strong empirical performance, the DZL distribution advances discrete reliability theory and offers a versatile tool for contemporary statistical modeling. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Statistical Models and Their Applications)
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28 pages, 564 KB  
Article
CONFIDE: CONformal Free Inference for Distribution-Free Estimation in Causal Competing Risks
by Quang-Vinh Dang, Ngoc-Son-An Nguyen and Thi-Bich-Diem Vo
Mathematics 2026, 14(2), 383; https://doi.org/10.3390/math14020383 - 22 Jan 2026
Viewed by 165
Abstract
Accurate prediction of individual treatment effects in survival analysis is often complicated by the presence of competing risks and the inherent unobservability of counterfactual outcomes. While machine learning models offer improved discriminative power, they typically lack rigorous guarantees for uncertainty quantification, which are [...] Read more.
Accurate prediction of individual treatment effects in survival analysis is often complicated by the presence of competing risks and the inherent unobservability of counterfactual outcomes. While machine learning models offer improved discriminative power, they typically lack rigorous guarantees for uncertainty quantification, which are essential for safety-critical clinical decision-making. In this paper, we introduce CONFIDE (CONFormal Inference for Distribution-free Estimation), a novel framework that bridges causal inference and conformal prediction to construct valid prediction sets for cause-specific cumulative incidence functions. Unlike traditional confidence intervals for population-level parameters, CONFIDE provides individual-level prediction sets for time-to-event outcomes, which are more clinically actionable for personalized treatment decisions by directly quantifying uncertainty in future patient outcomes rather than uncertainty in population averages. By integrating semi-parametric hazard estimation with targeted bias correction strategies, CONFIDE generates calibrated prediction sets that cover the true potential outcome with a user-specified probability, irrespective of the underlying data distribution. We empirically validate our approach on four diverse medical datasets, demonstrating that CONFIDE achieves competitive discrimination (C-index up to 0.83) while providing robust finite-sample marginal coverage guarantees (e.g., 85.7% coverage on the Bone Marrow Transplant dataset). We note two key limitations: (1) coverage may degrade under heavy censoring (>40%) unless inverse probability of censoring weighted (IPCW) conformal quantiles are used, as demonstrated in our sensitivity analysis; (2) while the method guarantees marginal coverage averaged over the covariate distribution, conditional coverage for specific covariate values is theoretically impossible without structural assumptions, though practical approximations via locally-adaptive calibration can improve conditional performance. Our framework effectively enables trustworthy personalized risk assessment in complex survival settings. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Statistical Models and Their Applications)
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