- Article
Exploring Methane Emission Dynamics Using Bayesian Networks and Machine Learning Analysis of Nutritional and Production Traits in Dairy Cattle
- Mohammadreza Mohammadabadi,
- Mahmoud Amiri Roudbar and
- Moslem Momen
- + 2 authors
Methane emissions (CH4-em) from dairy cows are a major environmental concern, contributing to greenhouse gases and energy loss in dairy cows. This study implemented advanced data analysis techniques to understand how different diet ingredients and production traits in dairy production systems can affect methane emissions. We analyzed a comprehensive meta dataset compiled from 225 peer-reviewed studies including 303 observations across multiple traits, using Bayesian networks and various machine learning models to explore the relationships between MEs, diet chemical ingredients, and production traits in dairy cattle. Eight models were applied, including linear models (OLS, LASSO, ridge, elastic net) and non-linear models (PLSR, spline regression, support vector machine, Gaussian process), to assess predictive performance. CH4-em showed correlations ranged from −0.43 (with diet starch; STR) to 0.50 (with neutral detergent fiber; NDF) for diet-related factors, and 0.18 (with body weight; BW) to 0.29 (with milk yield; MY) for production traits. Also, Bayesian network analysis indicated that CH4-em was a downstream variable for diet-related factors and an upstream variable for production traits. Additionally, the likelihood ratio test identified NDF as significant variable among the diet-related factors, while MY and milk fat (FAT) were crucial for production traits. non-linear models, particularly spline regression (SPL) and Gaussian process (GP), outperformed linear models in predicting CH4-em. For production traits, support vector machine (SVM) and GP models showed superior predictive capabilities. Model performance was evaluated using R2 and mean squared error (MSE) metrics. We found that while larger cows emitted more methane overall, they were generally more efficient, as methane intensity decreased with increasing MY regardless of body size. These findings offer valuable insights for developing sustainable methane mitigation strategies in dairy cattle production.
17 September 2025