Quantitative Risk Assessment in Life, Health and Pension Insurance: Volume II

A special issue of Risks (ISSN 2227-9091).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (15 May 2023) | Viewed by 3547

Special Issue Editor


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Guest Editor
Department of Economics, Business, Mathematics and Statistics “Bruno de Finetti”, University of Trieste, 34100 Trieste, Italy
Interests: life insurance products; financial guarantees; variable annuities; surrender option; numerical methods in life and pension insurance
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The high volatility in financial markets, together with the ultra-low interest rate environment and increased life expectancy, constitute serious threats for providers of long-term investment guarantees and lifelong benefits. Even if the COVID-19 pandemic is currently causing a mortality shock, its influence on future mortality is not clear and one possible scenario could be a further increase in the life expectancy of survivors. The risk involved with all of these “exogenous” factors is amplified by the uncertainty characterizing individuals’ behavior when making decisions concerning, e.g., surrender, partial withdrawals, annuitization, etc. This Special Issue aims to collect high-quality research papers that analyze theoretical or practical aspects related, but not limited, to the following topics:

  • Design of new life, health, and pension insurance products;
  • Analysis and risk management of existing products;
  • Optimal control, machine learning, (least squares) Monte Carlo, and other methodologies applied to solve optimization problems connected with the design and risk management of products, or with the individual choices to be made by their purchasers;
  • Optimal individual retirement planning;
  • Optimal stopping in life and pension insurance;
  • De-risking strategies for pension and annuity providers;
  • Securitization of financial, longevity, and pandemic risks.

Prof. Dr. Anna Bacinello
Guest Editor

Manuscript Submission Information

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Published Papers (1 paper)

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Research

28 pages, 769 KiB  
Article
Modeling the Economic Cost of Obesity Risk and Its Relation to the Health Insurance Premium in the United States: A State Level Analysis
by Thomas Woods and Tatjana Miljkovic
Risks 2022, 10(10), 197; https://doi.org/10.3390/risks10100197 - 17 Oct 2022
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 3163
Abstract
We propose a new approach for estimating the state-level direct and indirect economic cost of obesity in the United States for the time period 1996 to 2018. Our unique top-down methodology integrates a prevalence-based method with various medical-level costs, economic, demographic, and socio-economic [...] Read more.
We propose a new approach for estimating the state-level direct and indirect economic cost of obesity in the United States for the time period 1996 to 2018. Our unique top-down methodology integrates a prevalence-based method with various medical-level costs, economic, demographic, and socio-economic factors. Using this approach, we investigate the relationship between the estimates of the total obesity-related costs and the health insurance premium by state in order to evaluate the state burden of obesity. Our estimate of the total national economic cost attributed to obesity is approximately $422 billion in 2018, representing about 2% of the national GDP for the same year. Using exponential smoothing models, we forecast that the total cost would reach $475 billion in 2021 without accounting for the impact of COVID-19 on obesity. The top states driving the cost estimates are California, Texas, New York, and Florida. A bootstrapping technique is employed to the state-level estimated cost in order to determine the average cost per person. We hope that our study will promote interest in this topic and open discussion for further research in this area. Full article
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