Search Results (96)

Robustness is an important issue in deep learning, and Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) provide means of robustness analysis, while the minimax method is a conservative choice in the classical Bayesian field. Recently, researchers have applied the closed-loop idea to neural networks via the minimax method and proposed the closed-loop neural networks. In this paper, we study more conservative BNNs with the minimax method, which formulates a two-player game between a deterministic neural network and a sampling stochastic neural network. From this perspective, we reveal the connection between the closed-loop neural and the BNNs. We test the models on some simple data sets and study their robustness under noise perturbation, etc. Full article

In this paper, we address the challenges posed by limited knowledge in security games by proposing a novel system grounded in Bayesian–Markov Stackelberg security games (SSGs). These SSGs involve multiple defenders and attackers and serve as a framework for managing incomplete information effectively. To tackle the complexity inherent in these games, we introduce an iterative proximal-gradient approach to compute the Bayesian Equilibrium, which captures the optimal strategies of both defenders and attackers. This method enables us to navigate the intricacies of the game dynamics, even when the specifics of the Markov games are unknown. Moreover, our research emphasizes the importance of Bayesian approaches in solving the reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm, particularly in addressing the exploration–exploitation trade-off. By leveraging Bayesian techniques, we aim to minimize the expected total discounted costs, thus optimizing decision-making in the security domain. In pursuit of effective security game implementation, we propose a novel random walk approach tailored to fulfill the requirements of the scenario. This innovative methodology enhances the adaptability and responsiveness of defenders and attackers, thereby improving overall security outcomes. To validate the efficacy of our proposed strategy, we provide a numerical example that demonstrates its benefits in practice. Through this example, we showcase how our approach can effectively address the challenges posed by limited knowledge, leading to more robust and efficient security solutions. Overall, our paper contributes to advancing the understanding and implementation of security strategies in scenarios characterized by incomplete information. By combining Bayesian and Markov Stackelberg games, reinforcement learning algorithms, and innovative random walk techniques, we offer a comprehensive framework for enhancing security measures in real-world applications. Full article

Avian scavengers, particularly vultures, play a crucial role in ecosystem health by efficiently consuming carcasses, thereby reducing pathogen abundance and limiting disease transmission to wildlife, livestock, and humans. In addition to the indispensable role of vultures, they are a particularly threatened group of birds. This study investigates the environmental factors that optimize this ecosystem service by examining the scavenging dynamics of vultures and other species at deer carcasses in a hunting area in Sierra Madrona, Ciudad Real, Spain. Carcasses were placed in habitats with different vegetation densities (open vs. dense) and altitudes (high vs. low) and were monitored for 30 days using camera traps. Data on scavenger diversity, arrival times, and carcass persistence were analyzed using Bayesian multilevel models. Results reveal that vegetation density and altitude significantly influence vulture arrival times and carcass duration, with dense vegetation and low altitudes delaying scavenger access. These findings provide actionable insights for game management to enhance vulture conservation and improve both public and ecosystem health through timely and effective carcass removal. Full article

We consider a dynamic game with asymmetric information where each player privately observes a noisy version of a (hidden) state of the world V, resulting in dependent private observations. We study the structured perfect Bayesian equilibria (PBEs) that use private beliefs in their strategies as sufficient statistics for summarizing their observation history. The main difficulty in finding the appropriate sufficient statistic (state) for the structured strategies arises from the fact that players need to construct (private) beliefs on other players’ private beliefs on V, which, in turn, would imply that one needs to construct an infinite hierarchy of beliefs, thus rendering the problem unsolvable. We show that this is not the case: each player’s belief on other players’ beliefs on V can be characterized by her own belief on V and some appropriately defined public belief. We then specialize this setting to the case of a Linear Quadratic Gaussian (LQG) non-zero-sum game, and we characterize structured PBEs with linear strategies that can be found through a backward/forward algorithm akin to dynamic programming for the standard LQG control problem. Unlike the standard LQG problem, however, some of the required quantities for the Kalman filter are observation-dependent and, thus, cannot be evaluated offline through a forward recursion. Full article

Common data environments (CDEs) are centralized repositories in the architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC) industry designed to improve collaboration and project efficiency. However, CDEs hosted on cloud platforms face significant risks from insider threats, as stakeholders with legitimate access may act maliciously. To address these vulnerabilities, we developed a game-theoretic framework using Bayesian games that account for incomplete information, modeling both simultaneous and sequential interactions between insiders and data defenders. In the simultaneous move game, insiders and defenders act without prior knowledge of each other’s decisions, while the sequential game allows the defender to respond after observing insider actions. Our analysis used Bayesian Nash Equilibrium to predict malicious insider behavior and identify optimal defense strategies for safeguarding CDE data. Through simulation experiments and validation with real project data, we illustrate how various parameters affect insider–defender dynamics. Our results provide insights into effective cybersecurity strategies tailored to the AEC sector, bridging theoretical models with practical applications and supporting data security within the increasingly digitalized construction industry. Full article

This review proposes a novel integration of game-theoretical methods—specifically Evolutionary Game Theory (EGT), Stackelberg games, and Bayesian games—with deep reinforcement learning (DRL) to optimize electricity markets. Our approach uniquely addresses the dynamic interactions among power purchasing and generation enterprises, highlighting both theoretical underpinnings and practical applications. We demonstrate how this integrated framework enhances market resilience, informs evidence-based policy-making, and supports renewable energy expansion. By explicitly connecting our findings to regulatory strategies and real-world market scenarios, we underscore the political implications and applicability of our results in diverse global electricity systems. By integrating EGT with advanced methodologies such as DRL, this study develops a comprehensive framework that addresses both the dynamic nature of electricity markets and the strategic adaptability of market participants. This hybrid approach allows for the simulation of complex market scenarios, capturing the nuanced decision-making processes of enterprises under varying conditions of uncertainty and competition. The review systematically evaluates the effectiveness and cost-efficiency of various control policies implemented within electricity markets, including pricing mechanisms, capacity incentives, renewable integration incentives, and regulatory measures aimed at enhancing market competition and transparency. Our analysis underscores the potential of EGT to significantly enhance market resilience, enabling electricity markets to better withstand shocks such as sudden demand fluctuations, supply disruptions, and regulatory changes. Moreover, the integration of EGT with DRL facilitates the promotion of sustainable energy integration by modeling the strategic adoption of renewable energy technologies and optimizing resource allocation. This leads to improved overall market performance, characterized by increased efficiency, reduced costs, and greater sustainability. The findings contribute to the development of robust regulatory frameworks that support competitive and efficient electricity markets in an evolving energy landscape. By leveraging the dynamic and adaptive capabilities of EGT and DRL, policymakers can design regulations that not only address current market challenges but also anticipate and adapt to future developments. This proactive approach is essential for fostering a resilient energy infrastructure capable of accommodating rapid advancements in renewable technologies and shifting consumer demands. Additionally, the review identifies key areas for future research, including the exploration of multi-agent reinforcement learning techniques and the need for empirical studies to validate the theoretical models and simulations discussed. This study provides a comprehensive roadmap for optimizing electricity markets through strategic and policy-driven interventions, bridging the gap between theoretical game-theoretic models and practical market applications. Full article

The dual-carbon objective aspires to enhance China’s medium- and long-term green power trading and facilitate the low-carbon economic operation of park microgrids from both medium- and long-term and spot market perspectives. First, the integration of medium- and long-term green power trading with spot trading was meticulously analyzed, leading to the formulation of a power purchase strategy for park microgrid operators. Subsequently, a sophisticated Bayesian fuzzy learning method was employed to simulate the interaction between supply and demand, enabling the prediction of the price for bilaterally negotiated green power trading. Finally, a comprehensive multi-objective optimization model was established for the synergistic operation of park microgrid in the medium- and long-term green power and spot markets. This model astutely considers factors such as green power trading, distributed photovoltaic generation, medium- and long-term thermal power decomposition, energy storage systems, and power market dynamics while evaluating both economic and environmental benefits. The Levy-based improved bird-flocking algorithm was utilized to address the multi-faceted problem. Through rigorous computational analysis and simulation of the park’s operational processes, the results demonstrate the potential to optimize user power consumption structures, reduce power purchase costs, and promote the green and low-carbon transformation of the park. Full article

This study examines the decision-making optimization of Power-Generation Enterprises (PGEs) in the green certificate market, with a focus on balancing bidding strategies and carbon-reduction targets. Given the increasing complexity of the green certificate market, the research employs Bayesian games, evolutionary games, and Stackelberg games to systematically analyze the strategic behavior of PGEs and their interactions within the market framework. The findings demonstrate that game theory facilitates cost structure optimization and enhances adaptability to market dynamics under policy-driven incentives and penalties. Additionally, the study explores the integration of stochastic modeling and machine learning techniques to address market uncertainties. These results provide theoretical support for policymakers in designing efficient green electricity market regulations and offer strategic insights for PGEs aligning with carbon neutrality objectives. This work bridges theoretical modeling and practical application, contributing to the advancement of sustainable energy policies and the development of green electricity markets. Full article

This paper addresses two challenges in AV motion planning: adherence to right-of-way and handling uncertainties, using two game-theoretic frameworks, namely Stackelberg and Nash Bayesian (Bayesian). By modeling the interactions between road users as a hierarchical relationship, the proposed approach enables the AV to strategically optimize its trajectory while considering the actions and priorities of other road users. Additionally, the Bayesian equilibrium aspect of the framework incorporates probabilistic beliefs and updates them based on sensor measurements, allowing the AV to make informed decisions in the presence of uncertainty in the sensory system. Experimental assessments demonstrate the efficacy of the approach, emphasizing its ability to improve the reliability and adaptability of AV motion planning. Full article

This study introduces the critical individual contribution coefficient (CR-ICC), a novel metric that evaluates player effectiveness in critical moments of the game. We analyzed 16,631 technical actions from the top eight teams across 77 sets of the 2019 FIVB Women’s Club World Championship, ensuring data quality through inter- and intra-observer reliability. Traditional variables such as points scored, attack and reception efficiency, and balance were examined. Python programming was utilized to calculate the values of CR-ICC, which consider the contextual variables of set period, score difference, competitive load, and opponent’s level. Akaike’s and Bayesian information criteria, along with Nagelkerke’s coefficient of determination, were employed. Binomial logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic curves estimated the probability of victory associated with each variable. Interactive dashboards were developed, enabling dynamic analysis and data visualization. Statistically significant differences were observed in all variables (p < 0.05), except for reception efficiency (p < 0.05), at both the team and individual player levels. At the team level, points scored, attack efficiency, and balance exhibited the highest predictive abilities, with CR-ICC also demonstrating a strong predicting ability. The proposed CR-ICC has remarkable potential as a strategic asset for coaches, enabling the identification of players who excel in critical moments of the game. Full article

The cooperative optimization and dispatch operation of the integrated energy system (IES) depends on accurate load forecasts. A multivariate load, joint prediction model, based on the combination of multi-task learning (MTL) and dynamic time warping (DTW), is proposed to address the issue of the prediction model’s limited accuracy caused by the fragmentation of the multivariate load coupling relationship and the absence of future time series information. Firstly, the MTL model, based on the bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) neural network, extracts the coupling information among the multivariate loads and performs the preliminary prediction; secondly, the DTW algorithm clusters and splices the load data that are similar to the target value as the input features of the model; finally, the BiLSTM-attention model is used for secondary prediction, and the improved Bayesian optimization algorithm is applied for adaptive selection of optimal hyperparameters. Based on the game-theoretic view of Shapley’s additive interpretation (SHAP), a model interpretation technique is introduced to determine the validity of the liquidity indicator and the asynchronous relationship between the significance of the indicator and its actual contribution. The prediction results show that the joint prediction model proposed in this paper has higher training speed and prediction accuracy than the traditional single-load prediction model. Full article

With the rapid development of intelligent transportation systems and information technology, the security of road traffic signal systems has increasingly attracted the attention of managers and researchers. This paper proposes a new method for detecting attacks on traffic signal systems based on game theory and Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN). First, a game theory model was used to analyze the strategic game between the attacker and the defender, revealing the diversity and complexity of potential attacks. A Bayesian game model was employed to calculate and analyze the attacker’s choice of position. Then, leveraging the advantages of GAN, an adversarial training framework was designed. This framework can effectively generate attack samples and enhance the robustness of the detection model. Using empirical research, we simulated the mapping of real traffic data, road network data, and network attack data into a simulation environment to validate the effectiveness of this method. In a comparative experiment, we contrasted the method proposed in this paper with the traditional Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm, demonstrating that the model presented here can achieve efficient detection and recognition across various attack scenarios, with significantly better recall and F1 scores compared to traditional methods. Finally, this paper also discusses the application prospects of this method and its potential value in future intelligent transportation systems. Full article

In recent years, passive vehicle safety has become one of the major concerns for the automotive industry due to the considerable increase in the use of cars as a means of daily transport. Since real crash testing has a high financial cost, finite element simulations are generally used, which entail high computational cost and long simulation times. In this paper, we make use of the recent advances in the deep learning field to propose an affordable method to provide reliable approximations of the finite element simulator model that significantly reduce the computational load and time required. We compare the prediction performance in crash tests of different models, namely feed-forward neural networks and bayesian neural networks, as well as two multi-output regression methods. Our results show promising results, as deep learning models are able to drastically reduce the engineering costs while providing a feasible first approximation to the passenger’s injuries in a crash event, thus being a potential game changer in the vehicle safety design process. Full article

In order to analyze the choice of the optimal strategy of cyber security attack and defense in the unmanned aerial vehicles’ (UAVs) cyber range, a game model-based UAV cyber range risk assessment method is constructed. Through the attack and defense tree model, the risk assessment method is calculated. The model of attack and defense game with incomplete information is established and the Bayesian–Nash equilibrium of mixed strategy is calculated. The model and method focus on the mutual influence of the actions of both sides and the dynamic change in the confrontation process. According to the calculation methods of different benefits of different strategies selected in the offensive and defensive game, the risk assessment and calculation of the UAV cyber range are carried out based on the probability distribution of the defender’s benefits and the attacker’s optimal strategy selection. An example is given to prove the feasibility and effectiveness of this method. Full article

Traditional jamming technologies have become less effective with the development of anti-jamming technologies, especially with the appearance of intelligent transmitters, which can adaptively adjust their transmission strategies. To deal with intelligent transmitters, in this paper, a game-based intelligent jamming scheme is proposed. Considering that the intelligent transmitter has multiple transmission strategy sets whose prior probabilities are unknown to the jammer, we first model the interaction between the transmitter and the jammer as a dynamic game with incomplete information. Then the perfect Bayesian equilibrium is derived based on assumptions of some prior information. For more practical applications when no prior information about the transmitter is available at the jammer, a Q-learning-based method is proposed to find an intelligent jamming strategy by exploiting the sensing results of the wireless communications. The design of the jammer’s reward function is guided by the game utility and the reward is calculated based on the Acknowledgement/Negative Acknowledgement feedback of the receiver. Simulation results show that the proposed scheme has only $0.5\%$ loss in jamming utility compared to that of the perfect Bayesian equilibrium strategy. Compared to existing jamming schemes, a higher packet error rate can be achieved by the proposed scheme by consuming less jamming power. Full article