Search Results (52)

Rapid changes in Arctic summer sea ice exert substantial influences on the polar climate system, maritime navigation, and resource exploitation, while subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction of sea ice state remains highly uncertain. Using daily observations and reanalysis data of sea ice concentration (SIC) and thickness (SIT) from 1979 to 2023, together with concurrent atmospheric and oceanic fields, this study develops a multivariate linear Markov model to perform S2S predictions of Arctic summer sea ice. Sensitivity experiments with different variable combinations, weighting strategies, and modal truncation schemes are conducted, and predictive skill is systematically evaluated against persistence and climatological baselines. Results indicate that the model exhibits stable forecast skill without pronounced error accumulation at extended lead times. SIC predictability is primarily governed by its intrinsic spatiotemporal persistence and is significantly modulated by oceanic thermodynamic forcing, particularly sea surface temperature and surface net energy flux, highlighting a pronounced oceanic memory effect. In contrast, local atmospheric dynamic variables provide limited incremental skill. For SIT, predictability is dominated by its own historical state, with SIC contributing marginal short-term improvement and air–sea coupling exerting weak influence. Overall, the proposed framework effectively extracts dominant predictable signals with clear physical interpretability, providing a computationally efficient statistical approach for S2S prediction of Arctic summer sea ice. Full article

Rapid changes in Arctic sea ice exert significant impacts on regional climate feedbacks and high-latitude maritime activities, increasing the demand for accurate short-term forecasting of key sea ice variables. This study proposes a GraphTransformer-based framework for joint forecasting of sea ice thickness (SIT) and sea ice concentration (SIC), designed to address their strong spatiotemporal coupling under irregular Arctic Ocean geometries. A static spatial graph is constructed over effective Arctic marine grid cells, where neighborhood aggregation is applied at each time step to explicitly encode spatial correlations. A shared-parameter temporal Transformer is subsequently employed to model node-level long-range temporal dependencies and to perform direct multi-step forecasting. The model generates 14-day daily forecasts of SIT and SIC in a single forward pass. Experiments are conducted using multi-source daily data spanning from 1 January 2019 to 15 May 2025, with evaluation restricted to valid marine grid nodes. Results indicate that the proposed GraphTransformer achieves either the best or second-best performance among the compared models in multi-step forecasting accuracy. Ablation experiments further confirm the critical role of graph-based spatial encoding in enhancing spatial coherence and mitigating error propagation. Full article

Polar sea ice is undergoing rapid change, with recent record-low extents in both hemispheres, raising the demand for skillful predictions from days to seasons for navigation, ecosystem management, and climate risk assessment. Accurate sea ice prediction is essential for understanding coupled climate processes, supporting safe polar operations, and informing adaptation strategies. Physics-based numerical models remain the backbone of operational forecasting, but their skill is limited by uncertainties in coupled ocean–ice–atmosphere processes, parameterizations, and sparse observations, especially in the marginal ice zone and during melt seasons. Statistical and empirical models can provide useful baselines for low-dimensional indices or short lead times, yet they often struggle to represent high-dimensional, nonlinear interactions and regime shifts. This review synthesizes recent progress of DL for key sea ice prediction targets, including sea ice concentration/extent, thickness, and motion, and organizes methods into (i) sequential architectures (e.g., LSTM/GRU and temporal Transformers) for temporal dependencies, (ii) image-to-image and vision models (e.g., CNN/U-Net, vision Transformers, and diffusion or GAN-based generators) for spatial structures and downscaling, and (iii) spatiotemporal fusion frameworks that jointly model space–time dynamics. We further summarize hybrid strategies that integrate DL with numerical models through post-processing, emulation, and data assimilation, as well as physics-informed learning that embeds conservation laws or dynamical constraints. Despite rapid advances, challenges remain in generalization under non-stationary climate conditions, dataset shift, and physical consistency (e.g., mass/energy conservation), interpretability, and fair evaluation across regions and lead times. We conclude with practical recommendations for future research, including standardized benchmarks, uncertainty-aware probabilistic forecasting, physics-guided training and neural operators for long-range dynamics, and foundation models that leverage self-supervised pretraining on large-scale Earth observation archives. Full article

A theoretical model of the interaction between a following current and a semi-infinite floating ice sheet under compressive stress near a vertical impermeable wall is developed, within the scope of linear water wave theory, to study the hydroelastic behavior. The conceptual framework defining the buoyant ice structure incorporates the tenets of elastic beam theory. The associated fluid dynamics are governed by strict adherence to the potential flow paradigm. To resolve the undetermined parameters appearing in the Fourier series decomposition of the potential functions, investigators systematically apply higher-order criteria detailing the coupling relationships between modes. The current results are compared with a specific case of results available in the literature, and the convergence analysis of the analytical solution is made for computational accuracy. Further, the free edge conditions are applied at the edge of the floating ice sheet, and the effects of current speed, compressive stress, the thickness of the ice sheet, flexural rigidity, water depth on the strain, displacements, reflection wave amplitude, and the horizontal force on the rigid vertical wall are analyzed in detail. It is found that the higher values of the following current heighten the strain, displacements, reflection amplitude, and force on the wall. The study’s outcomes are considered to benefit not just cold region design applications but also the engineering of resilient floating structures for oceanic and offshore environments, and to the design of marine structures. Full article

Human-sourced emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) into the Earth’s atmosphere have been implicated in contemporary global warming, based mainly on computer modeling. Growing empirical evidence reviewed here supports the alternative hypothesis that global climate change is governed primarily by a natural climate cycle, the Antarctic Oscillation. This powerful pressure-wind-temperature cycle is energized in the Southern Ocean and teleconnects worldwide to cause global multidecadal warm periods like the present, each followed historically by a multidecadal cold period, which now appears imminent. The Antarctic Oscillation is modulated on a thousand-year schedule to create longer climate cycles, including the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age, which are coupled with the rise and fall, respectively, of human civilizations. Future projection of these ancient climate rhythms enables long-term empirical climate forecasting. Although human-sourced CO₂ emissions play little role in climate change, they pose an existential threat to global biodiversity. Past mass extinctions were caused by natural CO₂ surges that acidified the ocean, killed oxygen-producing plankton, and induced global suffocation. Current human-sourced CO₂ emissions are comparable in volume but hundreds of thousands of times faster. Diverse evidence suggests that the consequent ocean acidification is destroying contemporary marine phytoplankton, corals, and calcifying algae. The resulting global oxygen deprivation could smother higher life forms, including people, by 2100 unless net human-induced CO₂ emissions into the atmosphere are ended urgently. Full article

The current standard for sea ice engineering in the Bohai Sea implements a 1/4° grid method, which cannot satisfy the safety of oil and gas activities in the southern Bohai Sea, and therefore more detailed information on ice conditions and a more refined ice zone division are necessary. In the present study, up to 1/12° resolution sea ice characteristic data (period, thickness, concentration, and strength) were obtained based on the NEMO-LIM2 ice–ocean coupling model. On this basis, the design sea ice strength parameters were derived with different return periods from 1 to 100 years. Among the total of 53 grids, the mean ice periods in the southern Bohai Sea from 1951 to 2022 were 2–35 days, the mean ice concentration values were 8.3–64.6%, and the mean ice thicknesses were 2–15 cm. The design uniaxial compressive strengths and shear strengths at almost all grids exceeded 2.00 MPa and 1.00 MPa for return periods over 20 years, respectively. The design flexural strengths for the 100-year return period ranged from 463 to 594 kPa. For the 100-year return period scenario, all grids exhibited design tensile strengths exceeding 200 kPa. Across the southern Bohai Sea, the most severe ice conditions occur in nearshore zones, and the ice conditions display a distinct spatial gradient with Bohai Bay > offshore deep-water areas > Laizhou Bay. The mean ice thickness, concentration, design flexural and tensile strengths derived in this study were lower compared to the ice parameters suggested in the current standard, and design uniaxial compressive and shear strengths derived here were comparable to those suggested in the current standard. The refined grid used here captures more detailed spatial variations in the design strength values of sea ice engineering parameters in the southern Bohai Sea, providing more accurate data support for the anti-ice design of marine structures. Full article

Oceanic mesoscale activity influences the atmosphere in the southwestern and southern sectors of the Atlantic Ocean. However, the influence of high latitudes, specifically sea ice, on mid-latitudes and a better understanding of mesoscale ocean–atmosphere thermodynamic interactions still require further study. To quantify the effects of oceanic mesoscale activity during the periods of maximum and minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (September 2019 and February 2020), numerical experiments were conducted using a coupled regional model and an online two-dimensional spatial filter to remove high-frequency sea surface temperature (SST) oscillations. The largest SST anomalies were observed in the Brazil–Malvinas Confluence and along oceanic fronts in September, with maximum SST anomalies reaching 4.23 °C and −3.71 °C. In February, the anomalies were 2.18 °C and −3.06 °C. The influence of oceanic mesoscale activity was evident in surface atmospheric variables, with larger anomalies also observed in September. This influence led to changes in the vertical structure of the atmosphere, affecting the development of the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) and influencing the free atmosphere above the MABL. Modulations in precipitation patterns were observed, not only in oceanic regions, but also in adjacent continental areas. This research provides a novel perspective on ocean–atmosphere thermodynamic coupling, highlighting the mesoscale role and importance of its representation in the study region. Full article

A comprehensive diagnosis of eddy–mean flow interaction in the Kuroshio Current (KC) region and the associated energy conversion pathway is conducted employing a state-of-the-art high-resolution global ocean–sea ice coupled model. The spatial distributions of the energy reservoirs and their conversions exhibit significant complexity. The cross-stream variation is found in the energy conversion pattern in the along-coast region, whereas a mixed positive–negative conversion pattern is observed in the off-coast region. Considering the area-integrated conversion rates between energy reservoirs, barotropic and baroclinic instabilities dominate the energy transferring from the mean flow to eddy field in the KC region. When the KC separates from the coast, it becomes highly unstable and the energy conversion rates intensify visibly; moreover, the local variations of the energy conversion are significantly influenced by the topography in the KC extension region. The mean available potential energy is the total energetic source to drive the barotropic and baroclinic energy pathway in the whole KC region, while the mean kinetic energy supplies the total energy in the extension region. For the whole KC region, the mean current transfers 84.9 GW of kinetic energy and 37.3 GW of available potential energy to the eddy field. The eddy kinetic energy is generated by mixed barotropic and baroclinic processes, amounting to 84.9 GW and 15.03 GW, respectively, indicating that topography dominates the generation of mesoscale eddy. Mean kinetic energy amounts to 11.08 GW of power from the mean available potential energy and subsequently supplies the barotropic pathway. Full article

The marine environment of the Arctic Ocean has changed rapidly in recent decades. We used reanalysis data and observational data to explore the variations in the upper ocean heat content (OHC) of the Canadian Basin (CB) and the variations in the temperature profiles of the Southern Canadian Basin (SCB). Both the reanalysis data and observational data show increasing trends for the OHC of the CB from 1993 to 2023. Compared to the World Ocean Atlas data (WOA 18/23), the reanalysis data (ORAS5 or GLORYS12V1) significantly underestimated the values of the upper OHC of the Canadian Basin. To explain the OHC differences, the Ice-Tethered Profiler (ITP) observational data were used to analyze the variations in the vertical temperature profiles. We found that the reanalysis data remarkably underestimated the maximum temperatures of the subsurface Pacific warm water and its increasing trend. Based on the short-term prediction results from the Bi-LSTM neural network, we forecasted that the upper OHC will continue to increase in the SCB, mainly due to the warming of the intermediate Atlantic warm water. The research results provide a valuable reference for assessing and improving climate-coupled models. Full article

Two coupled climate models that participated in the CMIP6 project (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), the Earth System Model of Chinese Academy of Sciences version 2 (CAS-ESM2-0), and the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Earth System Model version 3 (NESM3) were assessed in terms of the impact of four new sea ice parameterization schemes. These four new schemes are related to air–ice heat flux, radiation penetration and absorption, melt ponds, and ice–ocean flux, respectively. To evaluate the effectiveness of these schemes, key sea ice variables with and without these new schemes, such as sea ice concentration (SIC) and sea ice thickness (SIT), were compared against observation and reanalysis products from 1980 to 2014. The simulations followed the design of historical experiments within the CMIP6 framework. The results revealed that both models demonstrated improvements in simulating Arctic SIC and SIT when the new parameterization schemes were implemented. The model bias of SIC in some marginal sea ice zones of the Arctic was reduced, especially during March. The SIT was increased and the transpolar gradient of SIT was reproduced. The changes in spatial patterns of SIC and SIT after adding new schemes bear similarities between the two coupled models. This suggests that the new schemes have the potential for broad application in climate models for simulation and future climate scenario projection, especially for those with underestimated SIT. Full article

Geosynchronous spaceborne–airborne (GEO-SA) ultra-high-frequency ultra-wideband bistatic synthetic aperture radar (UHF UWB BiSAR) provides high-precision images for marine and polar environments, which are pivotal in glacier monitoring and sea ice thickness measurement for polar ocean mapping and navigation. Contrasting with traditional high-frequency BiSAR, it faces unique challenges, such as the considerable spatial variability, significant range–azimuth coupling, and vast volumes of echo data, which impede high-resolution image reconstruction. This paper presents an improved bistatic nonlinear chirp scaling (NLCS) algorithm for imaging oceanic scenes with GEO-SA UHF UWB BiSAR. This methodology extends the two-dimensional (2-D) spectrum up to the sixth order via the method of series reversion (MSR) to meet accuracy demands and then employs an elliptical model to elucidate the alterations in the azimuth frequency modulation (FM) rate mismatch. Initially, the imaging geometry and signal model are introduced, and then a separation of bistatic slant ranges based on the configuration is proposed. In addition, during range processing, after eliminating linear range cell migration (RCM), the derivation process for the sixth-order 2-D spectrum is detailed and an improved filter is applied to correct the high-order RCM. Finally, during azimuth processing, the causes of the FM rate mismatch are analyzed, a cubic perturbation function derived from the elliptical model is used for FM rate equalization, and a unified sixth-order filter is applied to complete the azimuth compression. Experimental results with point targets and natural oceanic scenes validate the outstanding efficacy of the proposed NLCS algorithm, particularly in imaging quality enhancements for GEO-SA UHF UWB BiSAR. Full article

The safety of winter activities in the Bohai Sea requires more detailed information on ice characteristics and a more refined ice zone division. In the present study, 1/12°-resolution sea ice characteristic data were obtained based on the NEMO-LIM2 ice–ocean coupling model that assimilated MODIS satellite sea ice observations from the years of 2005 to 2022 to acquire new sea ice hindcasting data. On this basis, the ice period, ice thickness, ice concentration, ice temperature, ice salinity, and design ice thickness for different return periods in the 1/4°-resolution refined zoning were analyzed, which were then compared with the sea ice characteristics in the previous 21-ice-zone standard. The distribution of ice temperature and ice salinity was closely related to the distribution of ice thickness. The results of ice period, ice thickness, and ice concentration, as well as design ice thickness for different return periods, and the comparison with the previous 21-ice-zone standards, showed that the ice condition on the west coast of the Bohai Sea has significantly reduced. Full article

Recent studies have suggested that there is a dynamic connection between the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG). This modeling study uses a fully coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice Earth system model to investigate the SPG dynamics throughout the past twenty-two thousand years. We found that the variations in the SPG and AMOC strength are synchronized. Consequently, during cold events in the Northern Hemisphere, the SPG strength declined simultaneously with the AMOC strength and with shallower mixed layer depths, which reduced the northward meridional heat transport and increased Atlantic sea ice coverage. Full article

During escort and convoy operations, icebreakers are often required to maneuver to open up channels or adjust routes due to the prevalence of ice floe conditions in Arctic routes. This study aimed to investigate the global ice load characteristics of the maneuvering captive motions, including constant turning motion, pure yaw motion, and pure sway motion, of the icebreaker Xue Long, using a combination of the discrete element method (DEM) and drag model. First, the method was verified using simulating Araon model tests from the Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology (KIOST). In addition, the maneuvering captive motions of the Xue Long model were simulated at varying turning radii, drift angles, and sway and yaw periods, which are typical but currently poorly studied maneuvering motions. Overall, the results of the study showed that the method is able to reproduce the coupling effect of the ship–ice–water system by considering ship–ice interaction and ice resistance, where the mean deviation and maximum deviation of ice resistance are 9.45% and 13.3%, respectively. The influences of the turning radius, drift angle, and sway and yaw period on the ice resistance and transverse force characteristics were studied and analyzed via ship–ice interactions. The present study provides a prediction tool for the assessment of ship maneuvering performance to assist the hull line development and model testing of icebreakers. Full article

The Southern Ocean waters exchange freshwater, nutrients, carbon, heat, and salt to the Equator and influence the global carbon budget. Therefore, it is essential to understand the variations in Southern Ocean circulation during the last deglacial period to comprehend its changes with climate change. To understand the spread of the Southern Ocean Antarctic Intermediate and Subantarctic Mode Waters during the last deglaciation (from about 19 to 11 thousand years before the present (kyr BP)), this modeling study employs a synchronously coupled general circulation model. The results show that the Southern Hemisphere’s low-level winds overlap with the zone of maximum mixed layer depth, signifying the influence of westerlies in the Southern Ocean waters. The results also indicate that the Southern Ocean Antarctic Intermediate and Subantarctic Mode Waters are fresher, warmer, and about 2.4 times deeper during the early Holocene compared to Heinrich-1. The model simulated the Antarctic sea ice edge (grid points in the ice model have a sea ice concentration above ten percent) overlapping with the poleward edge of the Antarctic Intermediate Waters, and the Southern Ocean mixed layers. Additionally, the simulated quasi-permanent Antarctic sea ice edge (grid points in the ice model have a sea ice concentration above eighty percent) and the surface distribution of Antarctic Intermediate and Subantarctic Mode Waters shifted poleward by about 5° and 10°, respectively, during the early Holocene compared to the Heinrich-1. Therefore, this study highlights a close linkage between the Southern Ocean Antarctic Intermediate and Subantarctic Mode Waters with the Antarctic sea ice distribution throughout the last deglacial period. Full article