Search Results (203)

In this paper, the Balassa–Samuelson–Tariffi effect is revisited. This research first aims to explain that the behaviour of the real exchange rate shows structural breaks in the short term. A partial equilibrium model “á la Rogoff” is formally formulated where there are relative prices of non-tradable goods in terms of tradable goods in the supply side. Secondly, a general equilibrium model is built after a utility function is added to the partial equilibrium model. It is presented as a mathematical mechanism that shows a stationary state in the real exchange rate considering not only non-tradable goods but also tradable goods both in the domestic market and the foreign market. It is explained that any change in a currency’s price in terms of another currency in real terms is transitory in the long run, thereby disappearing after a certain period of time. In the general equilibrium model, any price’s change in non-tradable goods will be compensated by either a price’s change in tradable goods or changes in the nominal exchange rate. Therefore, this study’s main contribution is to show theoretically that the real exchange rate is constant over time in the long run. Full article

The location of housing has a significant influence on its pricing. Generally, spatial self-correlation and spatial heterogeneity phenomena affect housing price data. Additionally, time is a crucial factor in housing price modeling, as it helps understand market trends and fluctuations. Currency market fluctuations also directly affect housing prices. Therefore, in addition to the physical features of the property, such as the area of the residential unit and building age, the rate of exchange (dollar price) is added to the independent variable set. This study used the real estate transaction records from Iran’s registration system, covering February, May, August, and November in 2017–2019. Initially, 7464 transactions were collected, but after preprocessing, the dataset was refined to 7161 records. Unlike feedforward neural networks, the generalized regression neural network does not converge to local minimums, so in this research, the Geographically, Temporally, and Characteristically Weighted Generalized Regression Neural Network (GTCW-GRNN) for housing price modeling was developed. In addition to being able to model the spatial–time heterogeneity available in observations, this algorithm is accurate and faster than MLR, GWR, GRNN, and GCW-GRNN. The average index of the adjusted coefficient of determination in other methods, including the MLR, GWR, GTWR, GRNN, GCW-GRNN, and the proposed GTCW-GRNN in different modes of using Euclidean or travel distance and fixed or adaptive kernel was equal to 0.760, 0.797, 0.854, 0.777, 0.774, and 0.813, respectively, which showed the success of the proposed GTCW-GRNN algorithm. The results showed the importance of the variable of the dollar and the area of housing significantly. Full article

This study expands the tourism development literature by examining how currency valuation and financial sector maturity influence the tourism–growth relationship. While prior research emphasizes direct or bidirectional causality, this study distinguishes itself by exploring the mediating and moderating roles of financial development and exchange rate stability. Using an instrumental variables approach and empirical data from Africa, we find that exchange rates and financial development partially mediate tourism’s effect on economic growth, particularly in economies with weaker currencies and more developed financial systems. Our results challenge the tourism–growth neutrality hypothesis by demonstrating that exchange rates not only influence tourism demand but also actively shape its growth effects. A panel ARDL analysis confirms bidirectional causality, which reinforces the interdependence between tourism and growth. However, unlike previous studies that view tourism as an isolated driver of growth, we demonstrate that its economic impact depends on a country’s financial maturity and exchange rate competitiveness. Policy recommendations aimed at enhancing economic growth through improved tourism and financial infrastructure are offered. Full article

This study examined how uncertainty and global risk affect financial markets in emerging economies, focusing on foreign investment, CDS spreads, exchange rates, and stock return volatility. Using over 8.6 million ticker transaction observations and structural vector autoregression (VAR) models, the research found that increases in Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) significantly reduce foreign net buys, more than global market volatility (VIX). While global volatility drives CDS spreads, these spreads influence exchange rates, causing currency depreciation. The findings highlight the interconnectedness of uncertainty, global risk, and market instability, offering insights for managing risks in opaque markets and improving financial stability. Full article

In the past, South African monetary policy aimed to protect the external value of the domestic currency (Rand); however, these efforts failed. Later, its monetary policy approach changed to allow the foreign exchange rate market to determine the exchange rates. In such a change, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) aimed to stabilize the demand for the Rand in the foreign exchange market by providing information to stabilize market expectations and create favorable market conditions. However, South African policymakers have struggled with currency depreciation since the early 60s, increasing the uncertainty of South African exports. This study aims to examine the effect of currency depreciation on exports using the Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) model. Additionally, this study created and validated the supply chain activity/disruption index to capture the sea trade activity. The sample period for the analysis is 2009 to 2023. The study finds that currency depreciation does not improve trade between South Africa and its trading partners over time. Furthermore, the currency depreciation was found to be asymmetric to the effect of international trade across the different regimes. The supply chain activity index shows that the effect of supply chain activity/disruption on exports is regime-dependent. This implies that the effect on exports is dependent on the economic environment. Full article

We analyze intraday liquidity for a range of cryptocurrencies across different exchanges. Among the liquidity measures used, order book variation is most interesting for crypto traders, as it directly impacts their profit/loss. We find evidence that order book variation can be explained by liquidity measures indicating that trades are timed. We report various liquidity patterns that allow traders to increase their profits by minimizing liquidity-dependent trading costs. We further find indications that crypto exchanges can control liquidity by the number of offered currency pairs. Full article

This study compared standard VAR, SVAR with short-run restrictions, and SVAR with long-run restrictions to investigate the effects of oil price shocks and the foreign exchange rate (ZAR/USD) on consumer prices in South Africa after the 2008 financial crisis. The standard VAR model revealed that consumer prices responded positively to oil price shocks in the short term, whereas the foreign exchange rate (ZAR/USD) revealed a fluctuating currency over time. That is, the South African rand (ZAR) initially appreciated against the US dollar (USD) in response to oil price shocks (periods 1:7), followed by a depreciation in periods 8:12. Imposing short-run restrictions on the SVAR model revealed that the foreign exchange rate (ZAR/USD) reacted to oil price shocks in a manner similar to the VAR model, with ZAR appreciating during the initial periods (1:7) and subsequently depreciating in the later periods (8:12). Consumer prices responded positively to oil price shocks, causing consumer prices to increase in the short run, which is consistent with the VAR findings. However, imposing long-run restrictions on our SVAR model yielded results that contrasted with those obtained under short-run restrictions and the standard VAR model. That is, oil price shocks had long-lasting effects on the foreign exchange rate, resulting in the depreciation of ZAR relative to USD over time. Additionally, oil price shocks reduced consumer prices, resulting in a deflationary effect in the long run. This study concluded that South Africa’s position as a net oil importer with a floating exchange rate renders the country vulnerable to short-term external shocks. Nonetheless, in the long term, the results indicated that the economy tends to adapt to oil price shocks over time. Full article

This study is the first to scientifically investigate stock indices and currency exchanges that affect crypto price volatility pre and post the FTX (Future Exchanges) collapse event. Weekly series from 1 January 2020 to 31 December 2024 were utilized for the analysis. The ARDL model suggests positive symmetric short- and long-term effects of USA stock indices on Bitcoin and Ethereum prices (p < 0.10), while Japanese stock indices and currency exchanges have negative symmetric short- and long-term effects on Bitcoin and Ethereum price volatility (p < 0.10). The global index MSCI has no symmetric effect. The asymmetric approach NARDL suggests positive and negative asymmetric short- and long-term effects of USA and Japanese stock indices and currency exchanges on Bitcoin and Ethereum price volatility (p < 0.05). This research helps exchange brokers and crypto traders diversify their holdings, reduce stock index and currency exchange risk, and accurately predict Bitcoin and Ethereum price variations. Full article

This study examines the interplay between leverage, dividend policy, and market performance in Nigeria’s manufacturing sector during the economic downturn of 2016–2020. Drawing on signaling and trade-off theories, we investigate how firms balanced leverage and dividend payouts to sustain performance amidst macroeconomic shocks, including currency depreciation, inflation, and weakened consumer demand. Using panel data from 26 Nigerian Stock Exchange-listed firms, the study applies pooled ordinary least squares (POLS) and fixed-effect models (FEM) to analyze the direct and interactive effects of leverage and dividend policy on market performance, controlling for profitability, firm size, and taxation. The findings reveal that leverage generally exerts a negative effect on firm value, particularly long-term debt, which increases financial distress risks. However, the interaction between leverage and dividend payouts positively moderates this relationship, suggesting that firms use dividends strategically to signal stability and mitigate leverage-related risks. Profitability emerges as a key determinant of firm value, while short-term debt provides operational flexibility, and taxation imposes significant financial strain. Larger firms demonstrate greater resilience, benefiting from scale economies and diversified funding sources. This research highlights the importance of an integrative financial strategy during periods of economic uncertainty, emphasizing the complementary roles of leverage and dividend policy in enhancing firm value. The findings offer critical insights for policymakers and corporate managers in emerging markets, advocating for tax reforms and prudent financial management to improve business resilience. By addressing gaps in the literature, this study contributes to the understanding of financial decision-making in developing economies. Full article

The Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process is widely used in modeling biological systems and, in financial engineering, is commonly employed to describe the dynamics of interest rates, currency exchange rates, and asset price volatilities. As in any stochastic model, influential observations, such as outliers, can significantly influence the accuracy of statistical analysis and the conclusions we draw from it. Identifying atypical data is, therefore, an essential step in any statistical analysis. In this work, we explore a set of methods called local influence, which helps us understand how small changes in the data or model can affect an analysis. We focus on deriving local influence methods for models that predict interest or currency exchange rates, specifically the stochastic model called the Vasicek model. We develop and implement local influence diagnostic techniques based on likelihood displacement, assessing the impact of the perturbation of the variance and the response. We also introduce a novel and simple way to test whether the model’s variability stays constant over time based on the Gradient test. The purpose of these methods is to identify potential risks of reaching incorrect conclusions from the model, such as the inaccurate prediction of future interest rates. Finally, we illustrate the methodology using the monthly exchange rate between the US dollar and the Swiss franc over a period exceeding 20 years and assess the performance through a simulation study. Full article

Microbial consortium degradation technology can improve the degradation efficiency and adaptability through fungi–bacteria synergism, but the mechanism of the fungi–bacteria interaction is still unclear, making it difficult to optimize the degradation process. The microbial consortium J-6, with high lignin degradation efficiency and strong environmental adaptability, was obtained in our previous research. In this study, the fungi–bacteria interacting mechanism of the microbial consortium J-6 was inferred based on metabolomics technology. The results showed that the positive interaction between fungi and bacteria could improve the efficiency of lignin degradation. The metabolites released by fungi, especially betanidin and ergosterol, had an impact on bacterial metabolism, promoted the degradation of macromolecules, and significantly increased the lignin degradation efficiency. Metabolites released by bacteria, especially L-phenylalanine and taurine, played a key role in fungal metabolism, leading to more complete degradation. The interaction mechanism of chemical currencies exchange between fungi and bacteria during lignin degradation obtained in this study can provide theoretical guidance for microbial consortium degradation technology. Full article

The rise of cryptocurrencies over the past decade has promised to challenge the dominance of fiat money systems and reshape monetary policy. However, recent developments, including market volatility and the collapse of key exchanges like FTX, have eroded public trust, raising skepticism of a feasible transition to a crypto-based monetary system. This paper explores why cryptocurrencies have not met the expectations of their proponents, particularly those who saw them as a step towards Friedrich Hayek’s vision for competitive currency issuance. While cryptocurrencies reflect some aspects of Hayek’s model, their instability—especially in Bitcoin-like assets—undermines their role as a reliable alternative to fiat money. The paper also considers how central bank independence and regulatory gaps further hinder the development of a robust cryptocurrency framework. Despite the continued relevance of Hayek’s ideas in today’s monetary landscape, the entrenched structures of modern central banks and the rise of Central Bank Digital Currencies suggest that a decentralised currency order remains unlikely in the near future. Full article

Stablecoins are crypto assets designed to maintain stable value by bridging fiat currencies and volatile crypto assets. Our study extends previous research by analyzing the instability and co-movement of major stablecoins (USDT, USDC, DAI, and TUSD) during significant economic events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the collapses of Iron Finance, Terra-Luna, FTX, and Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). We investigated the temporal volatility and dynamic connections between stablecoins using wavelet techniques. Our results showed that the announcement of USDT’s listing on Coinbase in April 2021 significantly impacted the stability of stablecoins, evidenced by a decline in the power spectrum. This phenomenon has not been explored in the literature. Furthermore, the collapse of SVB was highly relevant to the stablecoin market. We observed high coherence between pairs during the pandemic, the Coinbase listing, and the collapse of SVB. After the collapse of Terra-Luna, USDT, USDC, and DAI became more connected in the medium term, with USDC and DAI extending in the long term despite a negative co-movement between USDT and the others. This study highlights the impact of exchange listings on the volatility of stablecoins, with implications for investors, regulators, and the cryptocurrency community, especially regarding the stability and safe integration of these assets into the financial system. Full article

This paper explores a development strategy for peripheral economies by advocating for a paradigm shift from traditional economic models that rely on accumulating foreign reserves. It proposes the job guarantee (JG) policy, an automatic stabilizer based on a reserve pool of employed individuals, as a cornerstone for fostering sustainable and inclusive growth. Grounded in modern monetary theory (MMT), this study critiques the conventional approach that prioritizes external reserves and highlights the potential of MMT in offering a more autonomous development path for developing countries. A systematic review of the literature, using the PRISMA methodology, reveals significant divergence between MMT advocates and critics, particularly regarding monetary sovereignty and the feasibility of implementing macroeconomic policies in peripheral economies. This study emphasizes that while external constraints remain, the MMT perspective calls for flexible exchange rates, low interest rates, and capital controls as part of a broader strategy to reduce dependency on foreign currencies. The proposed approach prioritizes full employment, the mobilization of domestic resources, and structural transformation through policies like import substitution. Although the shift may involve the slower accumulation of capital, it offers a more equitable and stable development path. Ultimately, this analysis underscores the potential of MMT to expand the external constraint and enable sustainable development, despite challenges in implementation and political resistance. Full article

Every economy’s prosperity is determined by the quantity of tax income it receives. Over the years, studies have demonstrated that inflows from foreign investments and openness to international trade are important contributors to a country’s tax income. Based on this assumption, this study seeks to examine the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) and open trade on tax income in a number of sub-Saharan African nations. The World Bank Development Indicators data on tax revenue, FDI, exports, imports, and exchange rates from 1990 to 2022 are used in the study. We also use the pooled mean group/panel autoregressive distributed lag approach to examine the data gathered for this inquiry. The results reveal that, in the long term, FDI has a significant negative impact on tax income; nevertheless, in the short run, Ghana’s tax revenue collection suffers while other nations profit from FDI. The results reveal that Nigeria’s exporting is detrimental to tax revenue collection, but South Africa’s export of goods and services is beneficial. However, imports and currency rates benefit Nigeria, Ghana, and South Africa in the near term. Thus, the research suggests improving tax rules and administration to prevent the movement of resources by foreign investors out of the host countries in order to avoid the imposition of huge tax burdens on their firms. Countries with low exports, such as Nigeria, are urged to enhance local manufacturing to meet international export standards in order to alleviate the continual negative balance of payments, which is primarily fixed by the adequate export of products and services. Full article