Search Results (10)

Ecological environmental governance is not only a crucial aspect of the urbanization process, but also a key factor for achieving coordinated development between regional economies and the environment. This study utilizes a multi-regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the impact of varying degrees of environmental governance on urbanization in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region. The results indicate that ecological environmental governance may exert certain negative effects on urbanization processes, such as GDP, household income, and industrial output; however, it also helps to reduce environmental pollution to some extent. From the different scenarios examined, we observed that both fully local environmental governance and proportional environmental governance result in impacts on urbanization development in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei. However, significant differences are evident among the three regions. The effects of ecological environmental governance on urbanization are the least pronounced in Beijing, followed by Tianjin, while Hebei experiences far greater disruptions, with economic declines exceeding 7%, significantly surpassing its capacity to cope. Based on these findings, this paper proposes several policy recommendations, including the necessity of differentiated intensities for ecological environmental governance, a gradual expansion of the governance scope, and the implementation of a diverse combination of policies for air pollution control and emissions reduction. Full article

Since 2000, China’s energy intensity has shown a fluctuating downward trend. Most existing studies have attributed the decline to technological progress, and only a few studies have recognized the role of industrial structure change. In this paper, a multi-region and multi-sector CGE (computable general equilibrium) model and a numerical simulation method are used to study how technological progress and structural transformation affected the energy intensity of 30 provincial-level regions in China from 2000 to 2019. The results show the following points. (1) The contribution of technological progress to the decline in energy intensity was the highest in the central region, followed by the western region, and was the lowest in the eastern region. (2) The progress of energy technology in the agriculture and industry sectors promoted the transition of energy consumption to the service sector, thereby reducing the overall energy intensity. This effect was the strongest in the eastern region, followed by the central region, and was the weakest in the western region. (3) The progress of energy technology in the service industry promoted the transition of energy consumption to industry and agriculture, thereby enhancing the energy intensity, and this effect was the strongest in the eastern region, followed by the western region, and the weakest in the central region. The conclusion of this paper provides a theoretical basis for realizing regional carbon peaking in sequence in China. Full article

Currently, tourism is an important contributor to the Chinese economy. The Chinese government issued Several Opinions of the State Council on Promoting the Reform and Development of Tourism and Several Opinions of the General Office of the State Council on Further Promoting Tourism Investment and Consumption, which are aimed at promoting tourism development. In this study, we use a multiregional and multisectoral computable general equilibrium model (CGE model) to simulate the effects of different levels of resident tourism subsidy policies on the economy and environment in China. Our analysis shows that tourism subsidies are beneficial to economic growth and support the transition to a low-carbon society. In addition, resident tourism subsidy policy has a positive effect on the national emission reduction of CO₂, CO, NO_X, PM_2.5, and SO₂. At the regional level, more significant emission reduction potential is present in provinces with more energy consumption and a more developed heavy industry, such as Shandong, Guizhou, and Inner Mongolia. Therefore, this study indicates that resident tourism subsidies can be an effective policy suggestion to promote the transition to a green society and air pollutant emission reduction. Full article

Carbon emissions reduction is an urgent global call to action, and for China, the nation with the largest carbon dioxide emissions, the task is especially arduous. For a country like China with many provinces and cities and unbalanced regional economic development, how to balance carbon emission reduction targets with economic development goals has become a social concern. Estimating the emission reduction costs of economic entities at all levels and reasonably allocating emission reduction tasks are the basic prerequisites for sustainable urban development. Based on an input–output (IO) table analysis of the socioeconomic data of Guangdong Province from 2017, this paper uses RAS and other data reconciliation methods to decompose various statistical data based on cities and industries. A multiregional IO table of nine cities in Guangdong Province in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is obtained, and a multiregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Guangdong Province is established. Using this model, this paper explores city-level differences in carbon emissions reduction costs while accounting for differences in economic development under industry-wide coverage. A scientific basis for the allocation of urban carbon quotas is provided, which is particularly important for the sustainable development of cities. First, the carbon emissions reduction cost (carbon price) of each city is related to the intensity of emissions reduction and the present carbon intensity, both of which are affected by cities’ industrial and trade structures. Second, under neoclassical closure conditions, carbon emissions reduction is found to have less impact on the overall gross domestic product (GDP). At the industrial level, the high-carbon sectors are the most affected, whereas the low-carbon sectors are less affected. Notably, some industries become beneficiary sectors. Under Keynesian closure conditions, carbon emissions reduction has a greater impact on overall GDP, and all cities and industries are generally affected, especially those that are currently carbon- and trade-intensive. Third, to ensure the achievement of emissions reduction targets and minimize negative economic impacts, it is determined that the direct and opportunity costs of carbon emissions reduction must be fully considered when allocating carbon allowances, and optimal solutions should be derived from the combined perspective of fairness and efficiency. Full article

The EU has established the world’s first cross-border emission-trading systems (ETS) for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, currently covering aviation, emission-intensive sectors, and electricity (EITE). The EU Commission has offered to apply emissions trading in new sectors where emissions from maritime transport will be incorporated into the current EU ETS, while a separated emissions trading system will cover emissions from road transport and the building sector. This paper employs a multi-regional multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with two simultaneous international emission permit markets. After examining the abatement costs for the EU regions, various policy scenarios are implemented to study the welfare effects of forming an ETS covering the sectors other than EITE (NEIT) and its linking with the EITE sectors under two different baselines and four emission reduction targets. The results provide several important insights: (i) Marginal abatement costs in Germany and the Eastern European Union region (EEU) are significantly lower than in the rest of the EU regions. (ii) The carbon price in the emission permit market covering NEIT is significantly higher than the carbon price in the emission permit market covering EITE. (iii) Germany and EEU appear as notable suppliers of emission permits in both markets. (iv) There is a significant aggregate welfare gain under the scenario in which the ETS covering NEIT co-exists parallel with the ETS covering EITE. (v) The aggregate welfare in the EU under the full integration of EITE and NEIT may fall below its value under the scenario with two parallel emission permit markets. Full article

Many countries have set ambiguous targets for the development of a bioeconomy that not only ensures sufficient production of high-quality foods but also contributes to decarbonization, green jobs and reducing import dependency through biofuels and advanced biomaterials. However, feeding a growing and increasingly affluent world population and providing additional biomass for a future bioeconomy all within planetary boundaries constitute an enormous challenge for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Global economic models mapping the complex network of global supply such as multiregional input–output (MRIO) or computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have been the workhorses to monitor the past as well as possible future impacts of the bioeconomy. These approaches, however, have often been criticized for their relatively low amount of detail on agriculture and energy, or for their lack of an empirical base for the specification of agents’ economic behavior. In this paper, we address these issues and present a hybrid macro-econometric model that combines a comprehensive mapping of the world economy with highly detailed submodules of agriculture and the energy sector in physical units based on FAO and IEA data. We showcase the model in a case study on the future global impacts of the EU’s bioeconomy transformation and find small positive economic impacts at the cost of a considerable increase in land use mostly outside of Europe. Full article

Carbon pricing is a policy with the potential to reduce CO₂ emissions in the household sector and support the European Union in achieving its environmental targets by 2050. However, the policy faces acceptance problems from the majority of the public. In the framework of the project Role of technologies in an energy efficient economy–model-based analysis of policy measures and transformation pathways to a sustainable energy system (REEEM), financed by the European Commission under the Horizon 2020 program, we investigate the effects of such a policy in order to understand its challenges and opportunities. To that end, we use a recursive-dynamic multi-regional Computable General Equilibrium model to represent carbon pricing as a cap-and-trade system and calculate its impacts on consumption of energy goods, incidence of carbon prices, and gross income growth for different income groups. We compare one reference scenario and four scenario variations with distinct CO₂ reduction targets inside and outside of the EU. The results demonstrate that higher emission reductions, compared to the reference scenario, lead to slower Gross Domestic Product growth, but also produce a more equitable increase of gross income and can help reduce income inequalities. In this case, considering that the revenues of carbon pricing are paid back to the households, the gross income of the poorest quintile grows as much as, or even more in some cases, than the gross income of the richest quintile. Full article

Global warming, coupled with disparate national population growth projections, could exert significant pressure on food prices, increasing the risk of food insecurity, particularly for net-importing countries. We investigated projected eventualities for a comprehensive set of 133 countries by the year 2030, and identified changes in the global agricultural crop trading pattern, with simulations from a multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We based our model on population growth and temperature scenarios, as per the IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5). Our simulations suggest an increase of 4.9% and 6.4% in global average prices and aggregate export crop volumes, respectively. This global exports expansion requires an increased 4.46% in current global aggregate crop output, since population growth raises demand, and thus, global average crop prices, further aggravating net importing countries’ financial burdens for food acquisition. Conversely, net exporting countries will fare better in the projected scenario due to increased agricultural income, as they are able to increase crop exports to meet the rising global demand and price. The gap in global income distribution widens, given that the majority of developing countries are coincidently located in tropical zones which are projected to experience negative crop yield shocks, while industrialized countries are located in cold and temperate zones projected to have favorable crop yield changes. National and international policy measures aimed at effectively alleviating net importing countries’ food security issues should also consider how global crop yields are geographically and diversely impacted by climate change. Full article

The adoption of emissions trading scheme (ETS) and renewable energy sources (RES) policies have been essential to achieving China’s national targets for reducing CO₂ emissions and developing non-fossil energy sources. The combination of ETS and RES policies raises an important issue: What is the effect of combining ETS and RES policies on the existing carbon market and economy? Focusing on the design of the nationwide carbon market, this paper uses a multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the economic impacts of ETS policy when combined with RES policies in China. The results show that China’s annual ETS emissions cap should decrease by 0.3% to maintain stable CO₂ prices and achieve the targets in China’s intended nationally determined contribution (INDC). It is estimated that the CO₂ price on the nationwide carbon market would decrease by 11–64% when the renewable energy subsidy rate increases from 20 to 100%, and the total trading volume would decrease by 3–25%. The results also show that the combination of an ETS and a feed-in tariff (FIT) results in greater GDP cost and welfare loss in all Chinese regions, increasing the total social cost by 0.01–0.06%. Full article

Pressure on existing water resources in China is expected to increase with undergoing rapid demographic transformation, economic development, and global climate changes. We investigate the economy-wide impacts of projected urban population growth and economic structural change on water use and allocation in China. Using a multi-regional CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model, TERM (The Enormous Regional Model), we explore the implications of selected future water scenarios for China’s nine watershed regions. Our results indicate that urbanization and industrial transformation in China will raise the opportunity cost of water use and increase the competition for water between non-agricultural users and irrigation water users. The growth in water demand for domestic and industrial uses reduces the amount of water allocated to agriculture, particularly lower-value and water-intensive field crops. As a response, farmers have the incentive to shift their agricultural operations from traditional field crop production to higher-value livestock or intensive crop production. In addition, our results suggest that growing water demand due to urbanization and industrial transformation will raise the shadow price of water in all nine river basins. Finally, we find that national economic growth is largely attributable to urbanization and non-agricultural productivity growth. Full article