Social Dynamics Simulation Using a Multi-Layer Network
Round 1
Reviewer 1 Report
The article aims to design a model that allows sustainable urban planning through social dynamics, transportation and accessibility. It is very well thought out, designed and developed. It is original and has a good theoretical contribution, very interesting for urban planning.
Nevertheless, some comments and observations are made below, some for reflection and others as input for future work if the authors deem it appropriate.
The word "sustainable" appears only four times in the text, once in the abstract and three times in the introduction, twice in the first paragraph. It would be useful, at least, to make a reference in the Discussion or Conclusion on how this model can contribute to sustainability in urban planning.
The word "sustainable" appears only four times in the text, in the abstract and at the beginning of the introduction. It would be necessary, at least, to make a reference in the Discussion or Conclusion on how this proposed model can contribute to sustainability in urban planning.
In lines 15 and 16 of the abstract, it is stated that "It is necessary to develop a method that can easily analyze the social dynamics which are the result of overtime changes in urban transportation and land use". Social dynamics are much more complex than this. Changes in internal social mobility can occur, primarily due to housing costs and the purchasing power of individuals. If these changes in housing are due to young people becoming independent, with low purchasing power, they move to more peripheral neighborhoods and even to more distant population centers, with more affordable housing prices. In the case of more affluent social classes, they may opt for more luxurious and protected residential areas outside the city.
On the other hand, not much is said in the article about changes in land use. They are only mentioned in the introduction and once again in the last lines of the conclusion. Land uses are not analyzed in the development of the study and are essential in planning.
But, undoubtedly, services and facilities, as well as transportation, have a great influence on urban development, but people are not always guided by them. Housing costs and purchasing power are often decisive. In addition, political decisions can alter the city in one direction or another, through urban land delimitation, transportation planning, etc.
The article is oriented to urban planning, but neither in the title nor in the keywords is there any reference to urban structure and planning.
In the introduction, it is stated that "In addition, in order to develop a method of analysis for large-scale and complex urban spaces, it is necessary to introduce a simple method that can be applied to large-scale networks" (lines 82-83). The method developed is not exactly simple, since it is based on various simulations and social, transport and accessibility models with a probabilistic character for each of the elements that make up the networks. In the following lines it is stated: "...model that can express social dynamics through a network"; "Social dynamics are expressed through modeling"; "...multilayer network through the use of an urban microsimulation model"; "The dynamic model in the developed multilayer network"; "virtual city"; "simulations are carried out over time under multiple cases of facility distribution" (lines 85-99). Further on, it is mentioned: "...modeling of individual choice behavior" (line 133); ".... individual and household changes are expressed by microsimulation models"; "life events are generated probabilistically for each time step of the simulation"; "household moving is expressed by the residence area choice model"; "land price for each time step is calculated by the land price model"; "individual choice of facilities and accessibility are expressed by the accessibility model"; "... the accessibility index is calculated based on the transportation mode choice model" (lines 160-171).
All these probabilistic models together generate a complex method that is difficult to apply and respond to real situations. But the methodology, although very laborious, is well structured, with a lot of detail, and is quite interesting.
In terms of individuals and households, we work with socio-demographic attributes, which is very correct and well elaborated, but it seems that other economic attributes, which are essential for housing choice and mobility (profession, individual and family income, purchasing power, etc.), are not taken into account. noise pollution in certain areas, recreational and leisure areas for young people, large shopping malls, etc.
In section 2.2.2 a, within aging (over 65 years of age), it is necessary to differentiate the growing over-aging (people over 80 or 85 years of age), since these people are much more dependent and have different behaviors due to their needs and requirements.
In section 2.2.2.2 b, for marriages, the statistical data are usually more deficient for the probabilistic calculation, since in addition to these marriages, there are more and more unmarried couples and cohabiting couples without any legal regulation, who are not registered (with percentages of around 40% in Western countries).
According to Figure 4, the virtual city model is very isotropic, even if it is understood that it must be so, since any other formula would introduce an unmanageable difficulty. Very different from the radiocentric model of the Toyohashi city, from which different data are obtained.
As for 30-year forecasts, as a theoretical model it may be valid, but for its application to reality it is very risky to make forecasts for more than 10 years. There are numerous factors that can occur on a more circumstantial or permanent basis that can alter any forecast. Small decisions can trigger unforeseeable and irreversible effects on the territory and cities.
According to Figure 7, the population is concentrated around facilities. If so, as it seems logical, this population will not need transportation because of its proximity to these facilities. The population tends to concentrate in the main streets, with which public transport also coincides, also facilitating accessibility to the exterior, especially to leisure and recreational areas, large commercial areas, industrial estates, etc.
The conclusions are very brief and should be expanded. And, perhaps, a discussion should also be introduced, making clear what the advantages and disadvantages of the proposed model are.
The bibliography is rather limited and very concentrated in a few paragraphs of the introduction. There are 9 citations (2-10) for a generic, three-line reference to land use and transportation microsimulation models.
The first three paragraphs of the introduction contain 22 of the 26 references in the bibliography. In all cases, to make very generic references.
On the other hand, the bibliography is very focused on national authors. More references should be made to models used in other cities, both in Japan and in other areas of the world, and to their results.
Author Response
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Reviewer 2 Report
The authors present an interesting research article using agent-based modelling to explore urban structure and transport policy.
Overall, the manuscript is well written, the methodology is very clear to follow, and the results are clearly presented.
My main concern with the article that requires addressing prior to publication is the lack of discussion of the findings. Currently, the conclusion provides a concise summary of the key findings, what is missing are links to the previously published academic literature both in regard to the extension in agent-based modelling techniques and the contribution to transportation planning and modelling. To address these issues, I suggest the author separate the results from the discussion and include a separate discussion section which demonstrates clear links to the previous academic literature. The authors should also include a limitation section in the discussion.
A minor comment is that the authors need to provide justification for only attributing births in section 2.2.2 to married women. This assumption seems unfounded and should be addressed in the modelling and text.
Author Response
Thank you for your legitimate judgment about our paper. We highly appreciate your comments and suggestions for this research work. Please find the attachment.
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Reviewer 3 Report
Thank you for the opportunity to review this valuable study. All you can do is broaden your conclusions a little.
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Reviewer 4 Report
The paper aims at developing a method to analyze the social dynamics resulting from overtime changes in urban transportation and land use, by describing the relationships between various agents in urban areas as a network. The network-based method applied in the simulation could be useful in shaping the network of urban activities and modeling its dynamics.
The model has been tested in two-dimensional grid virtual city, offering an interesting description of household habits and flows.
Nevertheless, the paper needs to be integrated with a discussion of the results and the possibilities in term of evaluation and policymaking.
In order to be more readable, the paper could benefit from a text reorganization as it seems to be still structured as a research report.
References need to be integrated.
Author Response
Thank you for sharing your comments and a brief introduction to our work. We highly appreciate your useful thoughts about our research work. Indeed, your comments will enrich this paper. Please find the attachment.
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